As long as price is below 1.3531, our working assumption is that either a 3rd wave or a C wave is headed lower. Short term measured objectives are at the 100% of 1.3680-1.3462/1.3609 at 1.3391 and the 161.8% extension at 1.3256. Longer term, there is the possibility that a multi-month top is in at 1.3680 and that the EURUSD is headed much lower (towards 1.2500).
Potential support is near current price at the 55 day SMA (1.3433) and a daily close below there increases our confidence in the bearish outlook. We are showing the longer term weekly chart today and our favored wave count - which has the EURUSD coming under 1.1638 by mid 2008. Even an alternate count favors the EURUSD dropping to 1.2500. Speculators positioning is plotted below (COT).