Euro-Zone Inflation Unexpectedly Accelerate but Still Far Below Target

Euro-Zone February HICP inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 1.2% y/y from 1.1% y/y in January. There is no breakdown, but Italian data suggests that higher prices for alcohol and tobacco are partly to blame. Italy reported HICP inflation up 0.2% m/m and 1.5% y/y, up from 1.4% y/y in January. Last week German inflation also showed acceleration in the headline rate, while Spain reported a renewed decline. Positive base effects should bring the headline rate further down in coming months and the acceleration in February still leaves inflation far below the ECB’s upper limit for price stability, which means the case for another sizable rate cut at Thursday’s council meeting remains intact.