• Euro 1.4589 Key For Bulls
• Japanese Yen Larger Correction Back to 108.50
• British Pound Volatile
• Swiss Franc Could Accelerate
• Canadian Dollar Towards 1.0100
• Australian Dollar .8699 Key For Bulls
• New Zealand Dollar Tests Support Line
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Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “bigger picture, we remain bullish due to the count that treats the rally from 1.4310 as wave 5 in the 5 wave rally from 1.3261. At this point, we are unsure of the correct count from 1.4310 but this is one that we are working with now. One reason that we think this one correct is that the decline stopped in the area of the former 4th wave (as it is counted here).” Evidence on the short term charts (15 minute) suggests that the structure remains bullish – a rally through 1.4715 would instill confidence in the bullish bias.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.4610, target TBD (probably near 1.52/53)
Visit our recently updated Euro Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: It seems likely now that a larger correction is unfolding from 105.91. Corrections unfold in 3 waves (A-B-C) and wave C is underway now. Resistance should be strong in the 108.35/50 area; which is the confluence of the 61.8% of 110.11-105.91, 100% extension of 105.91-107.92/106.35, and 1/15 high. We will look for a top and reversal near there.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Yen Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “given the shelf of support just below 1.9500, the rally this morning makes it possible that at least a multi-week bottom is in place at 1.9483. As such, a bullish bias is warranted against 1.9524 for a rally to at least the 2.0100 level (former resistance). We do not know yet of course whether or not the decline from 2.1160 will complete 5 waves – so far the decline is in just 3 waves. Recent COT data argues for a significant GBP low to form.” We stand by this analysis and expect the Pound to continue gaining.
Strategy: Bullish, against 1.9524, target TBD
Visit our recently updated British Pound Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: We wrote yesterday that “the high tonight was at 1.1087 and reward to risk is now favorable for bears. The pair should drop below 1.0836 in the next few days.” Similar to the EURUSD (but inverse), a drop below 1.0953 would instill confidence in the bearish bias. This decline could accelerate near term since the decline from 1.1063 is probably a 3rd wave.
Strategy: Bearish, against 1.1190, target below 1.0836
Commentary: See yesterday’s analysis for the longer term chart and analysis. Near term, the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves and is either wave C of an A-B-C rally from .9055 or is just wave 1 of either a larger C or 3. Given that the rally from .9755 is in 5 waves, weakness is expected to at least 1.0124 (1/15 low) – which is defended by the 38.2% of .9755-1.0305 at 1.0094. Aggressive traders can look to get short against 1.0305 for a drop to mentioned support.
Strategy: Flat
Visit our recently updated Canadian Dollar Currency Room for specific resources geared towards this currency.
Commentary: We maintain a bullish bias above .8682 but the decline from just above .9000 has us a bit worried. “Wave 3 within the 5 wave bull cycle from .8584 is underway. Ultimately, we expect this rally to lead to the completion of the entire rally from 2001. Objectives are in the .9600-1.0000 zone.” We will reconsider if proved wrong; which requires a drop below .8682.
Strategy: Bullish, against .8682, target TBD
Commentary: NZDUSD continues to confound. The daily count that we were working with treats the rally from .7365 as an ending diagonal as wave 5 within the 5 wave rally from .6639. However, wave v within the diagonal never exceeded wave iii of the diagonal. If the diagonal has already topped, then wave v would be considered truncated; which is rare. For this reason, our confidence in any count right now is not high. A drop below the support line (shown on the chart) would warrant a breakout strategy.
Strategy: Flat
JTREND is a 4 week rolling pivot. When price is above the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bullish. When price is below the rolling pivot, the trend is considered bearish.
DAILY RSI uses 13 day RSI in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 60. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 40. If the reading is between 40 and 60, then the reading is Flat.
DAILY STOCHS uses 13 day SLOW STOCHASTICS in order to gauge strength of trend. The trend is considered Bullish if the indicator registers a reading above 70. The trend is considered Bearish if the indicator registers a reading below 30. If the reading is between 30 and 70, then the reading is Flat.
200 day ?: Slope of the 200 day SMA
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