EUR/USD Analysis - 07.05.2025
Euro Slips to $1.1338 Ahead of Fed Decision
The euro fell 0.2% to $1.1338 on Wednesday, retreating from recent gains amid political developments in Germany. Although the U.S. dollar remained under pressure due to global outflows and trade-related uncertainty, the euro lacked clear direction as markets awaited the Federal Reserve’s policy decision. With rates likely to remain unchanged, uncertainty around future cuts and U.S. inflation kept EUR/USD range-bound.
Resistance levels are seen at 1.1460, then 1.1580 and 1.1680, while support rests at 1.1260, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1150.
EUR/USD Analysis - 08.05.2025
Euro Strengthens on Political Shifts
EUR/USD traded just above 1.1300 on Thursday, staying in a tight range as reduced political uncertainty in Europe and a softer U.S. dollar offered mixed cues. The euro was supported by news of Friedrich Merz becoming Germany’s chancellor, while the dollar struggled despite a hawkish Fed pause, as Powell flagged tariff-related risks. Traders are focused on Trump’s press conference at 14:00 GMT and U.S. jobless claims for near-term direction.
Resistance is seen at 1.1460, with higher levels at 1.1580 and 1.1680. Support lies at 1.1260, followed by 1.1200 and 1.1150.
EUR/USD Analysis - 09.05.2025
Euro Nears 1.1230 on Cautious ECB
EUR/USD edged up to 1.1230 in Friday’s Asian session, paring earlier losses caused by stronger U.S. data and easing trade tensions that supported the dollar. The euro remains under pressure as markets price in possible ECB rate cuts by June, though officials maintain confidence in inflation reaching the 2% target by year-end.
The pair faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside capped near 1.1460 and 1.1580. On the downside, support is seen at 1.1150, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
EUR/USD Analysis - 14.05.2025
EUR/USD at 1.1200 as Dollar Weakens on Soft CPI
EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1195 in Wednesday’s Asian session, recovering after a sharp 2.5% drop. The rebound followed underperforming U.S. CPI data for April, with annual inflation slowing to 2.3% from 2.4%, the lowest since February 2021.
Core CPI remained steady at 2.8%, in line with expectations. The softer data pressured the U.S. dollar and lifted the euro. Attention now shifts to Germany’s HICP release for fresh direction.
The pair faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside at 1.1460 and 1.1580, while support sits at 1.1040, followed by 1.1000 and 1.0960.
EUR/USD Analysis - 15.05.2025
Euro Rises Near 1.1200 on Reserve Status
EUR/USD traded around 1.1200 during Thursday’s Asian session, rebounding ahead of the Eurozone’s Q1 2025 GDP report. The Euro remains supported by its rising role in global reserves, with Capital Economics noting its strongest position in years. U.S. policies under President Trump set this shift in motion, which is seen as weakening the dollar’s appeal as a popular asset. Germany’s increased fiscal spending has also lifted euro demand.
Despite ECB officials signaling more rate cuts, the Euro holds steady against a softer U.S. Dollar, which remains pressured by lingering trade uncertainty. Markets are now focused on U.S. retail sales and PPI data, while speculation grows that the U.S. might allow a weaker Dollar to aid exports.
EUR/USD faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside near 1.1460 and 1.1580. Support begins at 1.1040, followed by 1.1000 and 1.0960.
EUR/USD Analysis - 16.05.2025
EUR/USD Rises to 1.12 as ECB Cut Bets Grow
The euro rose to $1.12 on Friday, supported by a softer U.S. dollar following weaker inflation data and lingering caution around U.S.-China trade developments. Although a 90-day tariff truce was reached, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods remain elevated at around 40%, maintaining trade friction. Meanwhile, the market is nearly fully pricing in a European Central Bank rate cut in June, with expectations of the deposit rate falling to 1.79% by year-end. ECB policymakers have signaled further easing may be needed as inflation trends toward the 2% target.
EUR/USD now faces resistance at 1.1260, with additional levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. On the downside, initial support is seen at 1.1040, followed by 1.1000 and 1.0960.
EUR/USD Analysis - 19.05.2025
EUR/USD Falls to 1.1064 on Dollar Strength
The EUR/USD pair started the week with a downside gap, falling to 1.1064 on Monday as the U.S. dollar gained strength. The move followed easing trade tensions between the U.S. and China, after weekend talks resulted in a joint agreement to pause retaliatory tariffs for 90 days. The U.S. committed to cutting additional tariffs on Chinese goods from 145% to 30%, while China agreed to reduce its tariffs on American imports from 125% to 10%.
The key resistance is located at 1.1260 and the first support stands at 1.1040.
EUR/USD Analysis - 20.05.2025
US Credit Downgrade and Brexit Progress Lift Euro
The euro approached the $1.13 mark on Tuesday, extending its rebound from the one-month low recorded on May 12. The rally followed a broad-based weakening in the US dollar after Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating from Aaa to Aa1, citing mounting government debt and widening fiscal deficits. The downgrade sparked investor concerns about long-term US economic stability and pressured dollar-denominated assets.
The EU and UK finalized a provisional agreement addressing key post-Brexit issues such as defense, fisheries, youth mobility, and security cooperation. The deal may pave the way for UK companies to participate in major EU defense projects, marking a potential turning point in EU-UK relations.
The European Central Bank is expected to initiate a rate cut in June, with additional easing possible later in the year. Despite these expectations, the euro has held firm, buoyed by both geopolitical developments and dollar weakness.
EUR/USD now faces resistance at 1.1260, with further upside barriers at 1.1460 and 1.1580. Support lies at 1.1040, followed by 1.1000 and 1.0960.
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EUR/USD Analysis - 21.05.2025
EUR/USD Recovers Around 1.1330
EUR/USD extended its rebound for a third session on Wednesday, approaching the 1.1330 level but still trading well below the recent multi-year high of 1.1575. With European newsflow muted during the G7 summit, market focus has turned to U.S. trade developments. Investors are cautiously optimistic about potential progress in talks that could deter the Trump administration from enforcing aggressive tariff plans.
However, confidence is wavering as the 90-day tariff deadline nears, and no firm trade deals have materialized despite repeated announcements.
Key resistance is seen at 1.1390, with further levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. First support lies at 1.1260, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
EUR/USD Analysis - 22.05.2025
Euro Extends Rally Ahead of PMI Data
EUR/USD trades near 1.1340 during Asian hours, close to two-week highs, extending gains for a fourth session ahead of Eurozone PMI data expected to show improved growth for May.
The U.S. dollar remains under pressure as markets await Thursday’s S&P Global PMI. Moody’s downgraded the U.S. credit rating to Aa1, matching earlier cuts by Fitch and S&P, citing rising debt, projected to reach 134% of GDP by 2035, and a nearly 9% deficit.
Trump’s tax-cut plan cleared the House Rules Committee, but the DXY still trades lower near 99.50.
The key resistance is located at 1.1390, and the first support stands at 1.1260.
EUR/USD Analysis - 23.05.2025
EUR/USD Rebounds, Eurozone Data Eyed
EUR/USD climbed to around 1.1310 during Friday’s Asian session, rebounding as U.S. Treasury yields declined, the 30-year yield slipped from its 19-month high of 5.15%, weighing on the dollar. The recovery follows the House passing Trump’s fiscal bill, which revived deficit worries. Earlier, strong U.S. PMI figures (Composite: 52.1, Manufacturing & Services: 52.3) had briefly strengthened the dollar.
Fed Governor Waller hinted at possible rate cuts if tariffs stabilize, while Trump renewed threats of higher tariffs on the EU. On the European front, ECB officials expect inflation to return to near 2% by end-2025, though growth remains subdued. Eurozone PMIs showed services at 48.9 and manufacturing at 49.4. Focus now shifts to Germany’s GDP release.
Resistance is at 1.1390, with higher levels at 1.1460 and 1.1580. First support lies at 1.1260, followed by 1.1100 and 1.1050.
