I see the end of a downtrend myself
Will go down or at least an inverted H&S.
EURUSD - 20/09/2021 - The downtrend continues on the back of positive US data, why we always watch out for economic data!
US Retail Sales up by 0.7% rather than the negative 0.8% being predicted.
On top of that the Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index jumped to 30.7 in September from 19.4 in August.
Technically the pair looks oversold and we may see a bit of a retrace before travelling further down.
Going forward I’m eying the German elections on the 26th of September with centre-left Olaf Scholz looking in the lead and investors worried about a left leaning coalition.
Economic data to look out for this week:
- Monday, German PPI
- Wednesday, EUR Consumer Confidence
- Thurs, PMI
All eyes on EUR this week.
Do you guys think we’re going to see the EUR drop further?
This is continuing down imo, had two lovely sells off this pair last week and think we heading back down to the low you have marked up.
EURUSD - 04/10/2021 - The downtrend continues with the market being oversold but no signs of real exhaustion.
Last week EUR economic data coming in cold and Merkel’s party loss in Germany have helped push the pair down.
FED’s position on early tapering may be the driving force behind USD strength.
“US Fed chief Powell said multiple times that the central bank had reached its inflation mark to trigger tapering, noting that it will take just one good jobs report for him to accept the same for the employment threshold.” So all eyes on NFP on Friday for big move.
I can’t see a flip in the market so looking at further sells and expecting a slight retrace before.
Will be interesting to see how it goes with the NFP giving the pair a good potential to drop.
Do you guys see any reason to go long?
EURUSD - 11/10/2021 - NFP came in under expected but the pair continues to fall with EUR weakness being the driving force.
German economic data has been the leading Factor to the EUR weakness.
German factory orders fell 7.7% month/month in August, far worse than the 2.1% forecast, and industrial production dropped by 4.0% when a 0.4% decline had been predicted.
All in all the big driver for the larger downtrend seems to be the FED and other central banks looking to taper their monetary stimulus programs whilst ECB has it at the back of their minds.
This retrace spurred on by the NFP results might be a good place to sell from with no real signs of the overall town trend coming to an end.
This week seems EUR heavy on the economic calendar so not giving out much hope for a boost to the pair.
Do you guys think we’ll see a continuation of the downtrend?
Seems to wanting to go the other way this week…
bullish I guess? It’s consolidating now, I just need confirmation in the 5m TF eur usd
1.15777 bullish %50 fib retracement hop on
I go that one during consolidated, hopefully
will break the resistance 1.1600
The PSAR on my daily chart is turned bullish already… let`s see.
I’m looking for short term sell.
- Recent down move was strongly supported by supply
- Correction was shallow and on insignificant demand
- Current bullish move has diminishing volume - demand drying out?
- Two small pin bars (second is inside bar) - this level of indecision does not look like beginning of strong bullish move.
On the other hand we are close of “covid peak” from Mar 2020, which may act as strong support. I’m looking to bite something below the pin bars and wait to see how price will act around 1.15
Still bearish here for me, but not overly rushing to make this trade.
No HH, and daily candles showing rejection price action so bllish bias is not for me.
EURUSD has been heading towards the North in the daily chart. However, there is a bearish trendline, which has been obeyed by the price several times. Thus, unless that gets breached, I would look to go short in the pair.
EURUSD - 25/10/2021 - Initially last week long trades were the winners but we’re now stuck in a range with a week dollar.
1.166 top and 1.162 bottom defines the range and long term I’m looking for a breakout towards the downside.
This week will be a ECB meeting with Lagarde unlikely to say anything in support of a stronger EUR.
We’re also seeing the energy crisis begin to hit Europe which will dampen economic recovery.
All in all can see l a less positive case for the EUR leading me to aim for the shorts this week.
Do you see more upside for EURUSD or feel the negative news from Europe will weigh on the pair?
Looking to short from this level, ideal play would be for it to pop a little higher and tag the 50EMA on the daily chart and then drop.
EURUSD - 08/11/2021 - We look on our way to 1.15 as NFP calls 531k showing improvement in the labour market for FOMC and tapering to begin at the end of this month.
ECB’s dovishness has me bearish long term and can see us testing the 1.16 level before coming down to 1.15.
Reasons to be bearish:
- ECB President Lagarde stresses again that Eurozone interest rates will not be increased any time soon.
- EUR/USD has been moving closer to the historic 2021-low.
- 1.1500 aligns as the next target on the downside.
- As we come into winter the energy crisis may start to bite in Europe as well a seasonal spread of covid maybe?
- EUR economic data appears soft.
All in all I can see us moving up to 1.16 level to test short term but can see the EUR start to see the squeeze of winter.
EURUSD is sitting on a nice daily/weekly support at 1.5500 for me, looking for a pullback and then a strong break through this level to confirm the bearish sentiment will continue.
Looking for a reaction here. If it carries on down then we are looking around 1.104 in my opinion
this pair caught a lot out last Friday with another huge push down coming all the way to 1.12500 we have to see this continue to fall unless we break structure on a huge scale as the EUR seems to be falling hard across most currency’s.