EURUSD Analysis (ongoing)

Trading Discussion
341

24/10/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

The pair is continuing to move downward through the trend channel with 0.99 looking like a good place for resistance.

I’m still in shorts from parity (1.0) and watching maybe 0.99 for new res, anything above or at parity will make me change bullish but seem unlikely atm.

I would wait for resistance to put in new sells, see how it reacts to the upper downtrend line.

I have take profits set at 0.93-0.92.

Side note: we seem to be squeezing for a big movement.

Points going forward:

  • “EUR/USD seen declining to 0.9300 in Q1 2023 – Nordea.”
  • “Speculation about a shorter Fed hike in December has hit the USD.”
  • “Europe is facing turmoil as tensions loom with Russia.”
  • “The Federal Reserve is laying the ground to shrink the size of upcoming interest rate hikes, weighed on the US Dollar.”

All in all I think it could spend another week messing around until 0.99 res hit, I’m keeping a keen eye on the news especially central bank announcements.

Anyone feeling there’s going to be upside? Will the strength in the dollar falter? :slight_smile:

image
image1453×898 194 KB

1 Like
342

I’m still bearish on Euro pairs and especially EURUSD long term. Wouldn’t be surprised if we see all time lows.

1 Like
343

31/10/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

We’ve broken the upper downtrend line and are retesting as support, waiting for confirmation to see where we’re headed.

DXY has also broken uptrend and is retesting, the mirroring to EURUSD showing that strength in the dollar has been the main factor for the trend.

EURUSD may continue to go downwards and this may be a move to shake out obvious shorts.

The decider: Is the dollar weakening?

ECB have been slow with rate hikes but have 75bp on Wednesday with talk of maybe lower hikes in the future.

The ECB are in a hard place right now, risk a recession by introducing higher rate hikes or allow inflation to go on longer.

We’ve also seen positive GDP for Germany on Friday that may have subdued recession fears.

The FED are expected to hike rates on Wednesday by 75bp but must be noted that they’re expected to deliver 50bp in December and 25bp in January.

S&P500 is up around 2% and might be showing that the markets are optimistic and may show a weaker dollar.

NFP is expected lower which would coincide with FED moderation and push the dollar lower.

All in all we may be looking at a turning point, and it may depend on the test of the upper downtrend line.

If we bounce… it’s on, I expect volatility and we may see volatility that we haven’t seen since 2008.

If we drop, we’re still following the channel.

Are we seeing the dollar getting weaker? :slight_smile:

image
image1453×898 197 KB

344

Will be an interesting week for the pair for sure.

1 Like
345

USD has gone on one again looks like its not done pushing up yet

1 Like
346

It’s looking like we are now bullish on EU after a very bullish weekly close.

Wouldn’t be surprised if this is the end of USD’s bull run - this pair has been manipulated for years now.

1 Like
347

14/11/2022 - EURUSD weekly analysis.

The dollar is now weakening and we are on the move up.

I’m watching for pullback short term before a further move up an fully looking for further long opportunities.

Reasons for weaker USD?:

  • “weaker-than-expected U.S. inflation data”
  • “Slowing price pressures may lead the Federal Reserve to adopt a less hawkish stance, prompting policymakers to slow the pace of interest rate hikes as soon as their next meeting’
  • “The downward correction in yields could push the dollar lower in the near term”

Reasons for stronger EUR?:

  • LNG stores at above 90% capacity and a warmer than average winter predicted.
  • ECB gdp prediction is now higher at 3.1% though 0.9% for 2023 given (recession looming)

My general thoughts: if we hit a global recession what we see in the charts would be akin to what we saw in 2008, large monthly moves ripe for trading trends.

For now I’m waiting for retest of new upward channel bottom then putting in further longs.

Can you see an uptrend forming or are we likely to crab it going into Christmas? :slight_smile:

image
image1453×898 169 KB

348

Hard to say what is going on with EURUSD really - it’s still holding bullish structure for now.

However, maybe we will see some short term buying - as it has hit a 15m POI that I had marked up.

1 Like
349

I agree, DXY is literally bossing everything at the moment and that’s hard to predict