EURUSD - Changing of direction. What's the driver?

Trading Discussion Currencies
1

Hello,

I’m newbie in trading currencies and have been studying macroeconomics for fundamentals trade.

I’ve noticed that since 2020 begins, EURUSD has been falling down, but recently, it’s changing of direction.

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I believe that technical analysts has an explanation for this, but I would like understand the economics drivers of this change.

I also noticed that this change starts around februrary, 21th. This day we had new releases from Europe economy (what I really believe that was the reason for this rebounce).

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Unfortunatelly, coronavirus have been shaking markets. And maybe it could be the reason, unless one thing: the change day were 21th and the highest day wich coronavirus was the subject were between february, 26th and january, 1st.

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Could you help to understand how this releases are changing EURUSD direction ?

I know that PMI and CPI are really important and the Brexit also affect the Eurozone economy. But I’m not understanding how this things works. Thanks for your time !

2

Try the fact the Eur is a house of cards.

Italixit a real possibility.

Arguing over new budget

Losing all that money from ‘treasure island’ UK

Marie le Penn ahead in the polls

Plummeting growth in Germany

The chance of a no deal brexit

The chance of a deal - Britain making all it’s own trade laws - and competitor right on EU doorstep

A million refugees from war torn Syria on the door step

oh yes and a complete shutdown in China

And a virus outbreak in Italy

Maybe investors just waking up to the fact many fiefdoms all speaking different languages and with different cultures was never going to work politically.

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3

3.46 am gmt 25/02/20 it not really broken out yet

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4

Yes I actually read that post totally wrong!

just shows how our own biases can affect what we see

Lol

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5

I guess the big take from this is don’t trust fundamentals!!!

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6

I have placed a buy order on cable today though, would make perfect sense if the Eur also rose

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7

@raphael_fxbrteam

such is my distaste for the EU project, I read your post completely wrong.

Oops

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8

Those graphs are very confusing please explain this

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9

EURUSD reached the lower limit of the weekly downtrend channel and bounced off last Friday. See chart here. :slight_smile: :grinning:

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10

Thanks Mrs. CRtrader !

I’m really greatfull for all your time (you and others). But I would like to understand the fundamental motivation behind this movement.

Since this year has began EURUSD has been falling. There’s no fundamental drivers behind it ? Just technical analysis could explain this fall ?

I really appreciate your efforts to explain me. But as I’ve been studying macro analysis, I would like to understand better those movements.

My opinion is that one driver is that Brexit has done a pass further. But what more can make USD valuer than EUR ?

Your analysis is that EURUSD will be keeping falling. But why (fundamentally speaking) ?

Thanks all you guys !
I really appreciate your effors.
Sorry for my bad English.

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11

I think it’s more technical than fundamental. It might be connected to the fact that UK is leaving EU and that that did not reverse during the years after the referendum for brexit. Also, another cause could be that the US economy has been strengthening while the EU one is stagnant.

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12

The EURUSD changes direction due to weakness in the Dollar, due to a possible rate reduction by the FED. The pair rallies from the 1.0800 level to the 1.1000 level, which could act as resistance.

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13

You were right. The FED was in a hurry to cut interest rates; it was such a commotion that they had to make an impromptu decision.

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