I have price levels where I am interested to trade. I do not know if price will get there or not. I do not want to gamble carrying a short trade into price level where I am interested in long trade. The same applies for short trades and gambling with carrying long trades.
It is not about being in position all the time. It is about waiting for the correct opportunity.
EURUSD - The support zone shown in my previous post worked nicely on Friday. Actually there was the only reasonable move of the day from this support (two times). I took long trade on the second test. For the rest of Friday the market was boring.
We are in sideways move (with value between 1,3705-1,3715) and I am not able to say if there is more buying activity or selling activity going on.
We had nice buying reaction and initiative on Thursday but no continuation on Friday.
I am waiting for new clues from the market. Since there is no macro news today I expect another boring day with minimum opportunities to trade.
The fast paced EUR/USD tumble lost momentum once longs were unwound - as seen in CFTC (IMM) data. Look for range trading ahead.
Today, at GMT+1: 15:00 @1.37220 there was another violent price reaction. What was that ?
My impression is: a) binary options contracts that expired at 15:00 or b) one/more buy positions that got hit in SL.
The lack of fundamentals has kept the EURUSD trading in a 30 pip range. We may have to wait until new information comes into the markets to make this pair move.
EURUSD - Yesterday played out as expected - narrow range, minimum volume, only scalp trading opportunities.
For today there is high probability of testing high of Asian session. But unless we have some news that will activate longer time frames and big players I expect price rotation in major Value Area.
Until we get a decisive breakout from the Value Area I am not interested in trading this market.
EURUSD - Yesterday brought only 2 long opportunities to trade. In my eyes they were more of a scalp trade which I do rarely. Anyway I took both trades.
During today´s Asian session price also tested yesterday´s high, which I called high probability target in yesterday´s post.
For today I expect continuation of sideways movement until the FOMC MM release. I would guess that this event attracts big players into the market and we could finaly get some moves and swing trade opportunities.
I will wait for clues after the release.
EURUSD - Yesterday´s development was a bit surprising for me. It all started with selloff right at lunch (manipulative). However this selloff broke through important support and left a single print behid.
Then some 30 minutes before FOMC MM release there was quick test into key support around 1,3633 and strong rejection on heavy volume.
The Valeu Area was established lower for yesterday which is more bearish for me. However the strong buying reaction shows some buying interest. But so far buyers have not been able to push price significantly higher.
I am waiting in resistences for short opportunities.
according to weekly chart we may expect upward movement for this pair and end of the correction level for this eur/usd pair. this trend line looks very strong to me and just touch its 3rd point so it will create a trend line for this pair, means there is strong possibility to see 1.4xx level soon by this pair.
I am Not sure the uptrend will continue. According to my drawing of the weekly chart the trend broke by a full candle and closed down of the most recent low. Also, stochastics crossed recently, confirming the negative trend.
During the current pullback, the EURUSD may get to the 1.3700 level and it could bounce from that round number to the downside.
1,3700 is interesting resistence. We had selling initiative from there. If price retraces there again I will definitely watch for reactive sellers.
EURUSD - Yesterday we had a sideways moving market with minimum volume.
Volume is still low this morning and I am waiting where big players will want to take part in this market.
Value Area was established higher yesterday and I see potential for continuation of sideways movement and correction into important resitence around 1,3700. It will be important how sellers will react there.
In the attached picture I share 2 good supports for potential long trade.
EURUSD - Market continued it´s sideways movement yesterday. Both supports from my last post gave profitable long scalp opportunities. My buy limit order at 1,3638 was not filled (basically by 0,5 pip). I took a scalp agresivelly in the second support.
However the activity of big players during the downside move was minimal. First increase in activity came with test of Friday´s and Monday´s lows. I took 2 long positions there. I closed one around dPOC and held the second just in case the market would rally overnight. It did not happen so I closed it this morning.
Today the market shows minimum activity of big players. I expect test below yesterday´s low and eventually into “super support” 1,3600-1,3590. I want to take long trades there and wait what happens from there.
EURUSD - We finally got activity by big players yesterday. It was in the support I posted about yesterday morning.
There was nice divergence betwen Price and Orderflow which hinted buying activity. I took long trades according to my plan. I also tried out few scalp trades yesterday and this morning in the support area.
I took some profits at 1,3618 which is dPOC of this week and I wait what happens next. My bias continues to be bullish.
EURUSD - Developing weekly POC proved itself as strong resistence yesterday. Price tested there 3 times and was not able to break through.
We are thus stuck in sideways move in narrow range between developing weekly POC a VAL.
If buyers from Wednesday get nervous and start to get rid of their contracts we can witness selloff into 1,3520 and 1,3500.
Until we break below this week´s low I have neutral bias which will turn bullish if we break above 1,3620.
As long as the EURUSD stays above the 1.3600 level, it could still go and visit the 1.3700 resistance zone.
EURUSD - Market created Neutral type of day yesterday, in line with my expectations. There were few opportunities to trade agresivelly to long side from 1,3600 support or based on signals formed after test of the same support.
Important macro news will be released in Europe in about 20 minutes. If they will be significantly away from expectations we may witness strong price move even before Thurday´s ECB.
We are in very low volatility environment for 7 trading days. Breakout from this low volatility could bring strong move. I will want to trade with direction of such breakout, if it occurs.
So far the EURUSD has stayed consolidated around the 1.3600 level. Since it hasn’t shown any clear direction, most likely the pair is waiting the rest of the fundamentals to come out this week.
EURUSD - Market showed no breakout from recent Value Area (VA) yesterday. However price tested important low at 1,3586 and there was decent buying reaction.
After 12:00 there was buying initiative from nice Pin bar on 4h. Price tested all the way into volume VAH from Monday (see picture). Reactive sellers entered into the market there. I took a scalp short from dVAH and later I tried to take long trade on pullback into 1,3620 with expectation that buyers will be active again. Price made 10 tick move but I was playing for dVAH and when price retraced to the entry point I closed that trade.
Today there is minimum volume in the market. I expect rotation around significant price level (value) within the current trading range. I suspect that the “big boys” are waiting for tomorrow´s ECB.
I took a short term long trade few minutes ago. I do not plan to do much else today. I will wait for reaction to tomorrows ECB and trade with direction of breakout from the current trading range.
