A bearish day, then a bullish day and now another bearish day on the EURUSD. This price action is more convinient for those range traders that have experience in tight ranges.
EURUSD - Yesterday morning played out as expected and I took a quick profit on my long trade.
In the afternoon I missed a good short entry when price tested into Tuesday´s VAH. From there price retraced into key price level I have highlighted in yesterday´s post.
I do not plan to do anything until ECB press conference is over. I have prepared scenarios for long trades, if there is no action from ECB and correction to the upside should start, as well as for short trades if ECB loosens monetary policy.
The fast return of the EURUSD above the 1.3600 level suggests that the market had already taken into account todays news announcements, but we must be careful with what may happen tomorrow with the US fundamentals.
EURUSD - Market was pretty wild yesterday. Additionally the volume traded in 6E futures was way above average (highest daily volume from November 2013 ECB meeting - BTW similar scenario yesterday = rates down - price moved down significantly but retraced the whole move before session end).
Since longer term time frames were active yesterday I merged profiles from May ECB press conference (another key macro news event) since today.
I have highlighted important resistence levels which I consider good for swing trades (even long term).
My short term bias in EURUSD is bullish. Retracements into supports will provide good opportunities for short term long trades.
However my long term bias is bearish and I will wait for short opportunities in key resistance levels.
There is the possibility of seeing the EURUSD going into a prolonged consolidation at current levels due to the fact that both currencies, the Euro and the Dollar have reasons to stay strong for now.
EURUSD - On Friday price tested above Thurday´s high. There was nice reaction of sellers there and then price tested all the way towards daily low. I took few scalp short trades during the move.
For today I expect sideways price movement mostly in Friday´s Value Area (VA), since there is minimum macro news and bank holidays in some European countries.
Will the EURUSD keep falling? With this particular pair we dont really know it next direction, the fundamentals are decisive in the next movement.
EURUSD - Yesterday´s development has surprised me. We had a directional (down) day. Price moved all the way to 1,3590 area where it spent the whole US session (and traded the highest volume there).
Today price test lower continues. It already tested the VAL of last week. I would expect reaction of buyers in this area. There is good potential for price to start testing higher into POC area of 2 previous weeks.
EURUSD - No reaction of buyers at wVAL mentioned in my last post. Market created second day of b shape profile signaling liquidation of old long positions.
Now I am waiting for new initiative in the market since it could provide clues about next move. If price breaks below 1,3490 door is open to further downside move. If buyers initiate new longs I would expect move at least into 1,3590 and I do not rule out test of last weeks high.
The bond yield differentials between the US and Europe are keeping the Euro under pressure. If there is more upbeat economic news out of the US, the EUR/USD may break below the 1.3500 level.
EURUSD - Market moved in narrow range yesterday. There was buying initiative before start of US session but after US open it was quickly neutralized. For the rest of US session it was sideways move in very narrow range.
Today price tested below yesterday´s low and there was quite a nice buying reaction.
If buing momentum remains price could test all the way to yesterday´s high. If price breaks below today´s low I would expect test below low of Thurday last week. If price gets there it will be crucial what happens.
It is risky to take a position on the EURUSD at the momment, because the price may take off in any direction. We are still waiting to see if it breaks the 1.3500 level to the downside.
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Another down day for the EURUSD, but it could have found a support area. Lets see if it goes up from here.
Not a lot of movement on the EURUSD, but we may still see a visit of the price to the 1.3500. That level could act as a good support.
Where do people see the EUR/USD going for the week 21st to 25th july? between 1.3490 and 1.3540 at the moment. Its been bearish for a few days. Bad US data on friday made it go from 1.3490 to 1.3525 roughly speaking. What do we think up or down?
The EURUSD halts its decline at the 1.3500 zone and it has gone back up to the congestion area around the 1.3530.
EURUSD which is making me so happy I cant believe it’s not butter. This pair has been on a slippery slope for the past 2-3 weeks and has finally found some support around our entry of 1.296…exactly where I thought it would seeing as how this is the 61.8% retracement level on the weekly chart and historical support going back to 2013 and 2012. For this pair I see small buying at first to shake up the shorts and get them to offer up more EUROs at lower prices just so the big boys can come in and carry the price right back to our 1.32-1.33 range. From there I’m looking for my target at 1.37 to be hit…Now that’s swing trading at its finest if this works out. as of now this all looks like it could work out. In the weekly chart and the daily chart give you a closer look at the situation.