EURUSD – July 7th 2014

I think the recent correction in the EURUSD opened up good trading opportunities and I am entering new long positions below 1.3600. I think we will get another bounce higher above the previous short-term peak and establish a bullish trend going forward. The rotation by Russians out of the USD into the Euro will keep a floor under any sell-off in my opinion. In addition I expect a weak US economy in the second-half of 2014. I am long the Euro.

What happened with June 23rd ?

What do you mean?

June 23rd

You opened positions in EURUSD, targeting +50 pips.
You said, if the the price would break higher (and it did) you add to existing ones.
I was following, but you never updated that post.

I agree with you in the near term, but what makes you think the US economy will be weak in the second half?

As you can see in the previous post I went long and in this post I continue to view it as a long trade so nothing has changed.

I think the NFP report was terrible and regional indices are showing overall weaker than expected figures. While many gag over the NFP report is shows that the majority does not comprehend what they are reading. We are replacing high paying full-term positions with low paying part-time positions; if I remember correctly it was something close to losing 500K full-time and adding 800K part-time (rounded up). This will not and cannot support the economy.

I can see what you mean I took a glance at the NFP report today. I can understand your concerns. It is something to keep an eye on.

The number of persons employed part time for economic reasons (sometimes referred
to as involuntary part-time workers) increased by 275,000 in June to 7.5 million.
The number of involuntary part-time workers is down over the year but has shown no
clear trend in recent months. These individuals were working part time because their
hours had been cut back or because they were unable to find a full-time job. (See
table A-8.)

I however think this is what most people are seeing when they read the NFP report, and I must say I myself am one of those people. I don’t think the US economy is going to be strong but I think it is on the right track. Plus I don’t think the Euro zone will exactly be a source of strength in the near term. I am holding short EUR/USD for the moment, but you bring up a good point something to watch.

Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 288,000 in June. Over the past 3 months,
job growth has averaged 272,000 per month. In June, employment growth was widespread,
led by gains in professional and business services, retail trade, food services and
drinking places, and health care. (See table B-1.)