EURUSD - Moving Average Analysis (1H / 1D)

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1

Here’s the moving average analysis of EURUSD 1D and 1H charts. I will share more stats if requested.

Here’s how to read this data:
MA 10 - 80% : -152 / +150 pips: means that; 80% price will trade between -152 / +150 pips away from the 10 MA in a daily chart. There’s only 10% probability that the price trades 152 pips below or 151 pips above the 10 MA in daily chart - (100 - 80%) / 2.

EURUSD / 1d chart Moving Average analysis since 1979

MA : 10
70% : -120 / +119 pips
80% : -152 / +150 pips
90% : -203 / +194 pips

MA : 20
70% : -180 / +180 pips
80% : -225 / +222 pips
90% : -304 / +292 pips

MA : 50
70% : -308 / +313 pips
80% : -393 / +383 pips
90% : -521 / +494 pips

MA : 100
70% : -468 / +457 pips
80% : -596 / +554 pips
90% : -809 / +708 pips

MA : 200
70% : -700 / +696 pips
80% : -853 / +827 pips
90% : -1165 / +992 pips

EURUSD / 1h chart Moving Average analysis since 2010

MA : 10
70% : -19 / +18 pips
80% : -25 / +24 pips
90% : -37 / +36 pips

MA : 20
70% : -30 / +29 pips
80% : -40 / +38 pips
90% : -56 / +53 pips

MA : 50
70% : -53 / +50 pips
80% : -67 / +64 pips
90% : -94 / +88 pips

MA : 100
70% : -78 / +74 pips
80% : -99 / +94 pips
90% : -133 / +124 pips

MA : 200
70% : -115 / +106 pips
80% : -141 / +133 pips
90% : -187 / +175 pips

2

In terms of using this data, is it more for SL/TP-setting? How could we make use of these numbers?

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3

This is just statistical analysis! I’m currently not using it anywhere. Yet!

4

Perhaps the closer you get to a outer bounds, you can set up trades for a reversal? Or I guess it could work for reversals and breakouts.

I’d be interested to know if anybody uses this for trade set up, and maybe if there are indicators that do something similar, maybe like Bollinger Bands or envelopes I think I’ve heard them called.

5

To be honest, MA’s follow price. So we can’t know where will they cross eachother. Here you can say that, EURUSD is overbought or oversold but this can not mean that reversal is around the corner. This is a game of probability not certainty.

6

Completely agree. Again, another data point(s) to perhaps include in your trade setups.

7

Exactly :slight_smile: Btw, I only execute statistical and momentum trades last few weeks.

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