EurUsd Orderflow Analysis

Updated thread on EurUsd order analysis

Order flow to start the week, projected through Wednesday 6/12.
Source for Option and Order information: (Bloomberg)
Option levels are in Yellow. Set for 10am NY expiration.

  • Retail Buy stops are starting to form just above the new swing high, centered at 1.0785
  • Retail Sell stops have been forming just below this move and growing. 1.0740
  • Larger Limit buy orders at 1.0730 signaling latent demand for EurUsd at that level. Possible TP level from the recent surge in shorts.

Sell stops triggered. Working through bids.

  1. Bids at 1.0735-1.0725 kept EU supported
  2. Option hedge flows at 1.0760 capped the upmove.
  3. Retail (weak) buy stops are starting to form at the tops of these highs
  4. At the same time, retail sell stops are forming just below this area. Latent demand in bids are still present as well.

FXSSI’s orderbook feed shows a lot of trapped buyers at the 1.0775 area. Expect that to play a role when these guys get back to breakeven and exit longs.

Retailer buy stops ran, then retail sell stops ran. Board cleared. Early sell stops are forming today just below the overnight lows, with large bids from 1.0710-1.0700.

Long positions from 1.0765-1.0775 (yellow) are still holding on. Possibly turning this zone in to resistance if they decide to exit at breakeven.

No orderflow structural changes in Eur/Usd as it consolidates.

Very high risk events scheduled for Wednesday NY starting with CPI, then FOMC in the afternoon. Expect high two-way volatility.