Sittin on a few pips profit. s/l +1 Will take stopout if I have to.
Update on Trade No.4
The GBPUSD retraces huge distances. So an arbitrary 100PIPs CUT-LOSS from the ENTRY point may not withstand the dynamics of the market. Since these trades are paper trades I just want to observe the reliability of the signal first. So no more fixed CUT-LOSS of 100PIPs irrespective of the counter.
Here is what it means to Trade No.4
Counter: GBPUSD
Trade Setup: Invalid BEAR-TR. Betting BULL will resume anytime
Time: 20SEP, 7:06am CEST
ENTRY Parameters: BUY SPOT @ 1.37069 CUT-LOSS: Not Set and Profit Target: 1.39119
The value 1.39119 is the present HILL from which market descended close to 280PIPs as of now
Time: 22-SEP 1308Hrs CEST
Trade No.5
Counter: USDCHF
Trade Setup: Invalid BEAR-TR. Betting BULL Trend will resume anytime
ENTRY Particulars: 0.92200. No CUT-LOSS and Profit Target: 0.93316 which is the value of present HILL from which market retraced a little more than 100PIPs
Time: 23-SEP 1212Hrs CEST
Trade No.5 Update
Counter: USDCHF
Profit Target set at 0.9260 as long as existing BASE 0.92139 is not breached first. If the BASE is breached then profit Target set at arbitrary 100PIPs from ENTRY Value
No fixed CUT-LOSS as of now. if the market produce BEAR Signal then Trade will be EXIT at that point
Time: 24-SEP 0223Hrs CEST
Update on Trade No.4
Counter: GBPUSD
Trade Setup: Invalid BEAR-TR. Betting BULL will resume anytime
Time: 20SEP, 7:06am CEST
ENTRY Parameters: BUY SPOT @ 1.37069 CUT-LOSS: Not Set and Profit Target: 1.39119
EXIT Trade @ 1.37306 due to a possibility of VALID BEAR-TR
Here is the summary of closed trades thus far
The next 5 trades Iâll be entering 2 quantities. The 1st quantity during the signal manifest or at a appropriate time and the 2nd at a 50/75/100 retracement level. Letâs see how it works
28SEP 1414Hrs CEST
The GBPUSD is VALID BEAR-TR now. I want to commit the 1st quantity at 1.3650 and 2nd quantity at 1.3750. Here is the trade details
Trade No.6
Counter: GBPUSD
Trade Setup: VALID BEAR-TR
Trade Parameters: SELL-LIMIT @ 1.3650 and 1.3750
Time: 1-OCT 1357Hrs CEST
Trade No.6 Update: The Valid BEAR-TR signal manifest at 1.35925 and I placed SELL-LIMIT @ 1.3650 because the signal manifest after market retraced from 1.39119 ( a little more than 300PIPs). But the BEAR RALLY simply took off and went up to 1.34107 (nearly 180PIPs). So next time Iâll enter the moment signal manifest no matter how far market retraced already. Trade is still open waiting for the order to get filled
Trade No.7
Counter: USDCHF
Trade SETUP: INVALID BEAR-TR. Market may resume BULL Trend any time
LONG order filled @ 0.9301. No fixed CUT-LOSS. 100PIPs fixed profit-target
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Can you explain how you analyse the market?
When I first looked at the intraday forex chart on June2008, I came to the conclusion there must be some way to predict the movements in advance. To me the chart didnât appear random movements of the market. I noticed how the market would come down a little and then surge upwards and how it rallies down for while before it started going upwards or sideways. It looked like there was some intelligence behind its movements
Initially I started with MA indicator (Simple, exponential and all other variations) Then I combined 2 level of MA (15 Days and 100 days, one short and one long and then with all the variations). That is MACD. Then I tried stochastic and many more and I slowly rejected one after the other because none of them worked for me. I am not saying these indicators are red herrings. I am saying I didnât know how to make money out of the market using these indicators. That trading was not my style and I didnât know what my style was back then. But I found myself jumping form one indicator to another, then a combination of them all the while telling myself I donât know what I was doing and this is not the way to trade
I also read many books and attended numerous seminars over the years on how to make money out of the market. In one of the lecture an Australian man was talking and he was explaining how he made money trading stock indices. He said he used only the price (Open, Low, High, Close) on various time frames and based on them he would make some conclusions. That idea appealed to me. It seemed very simple. I was already wanted to move away from all those indicators. I also realized indicators were simply smoothening the curve by catching up with the market. So market may turn BEAR already but the indicator would still be pointing BULLISH. In other words market is moving the indicator and not the other way around
I wanted to know what moves the market. But not interested in learning fundamental things like job numbers, inflation, import & export and myriad other economic indicators. I wanted something simple. I formed my own conclusions as follows:
- Fundamentals move the market. But I wouldnât know what combination of them moves how much of the market. So I might as well discard the entire fundamentals. So I stopped listening to financial news and analysis
- Market fluctuates around 3%. Current EURUSD is 1.16 that is 11,600 PIPs and 3% of them will be roughly 350 PIPs. So EURUSD has 350PIPs arena to maneuver. So I shouldnât focus on scalping. Because I might get killed sooner or later.
Candlestick patterns I rejected because they only offer statistics of various patterns and how market moved after their manifestation. It doesnât tell you how the pattern influenced the move. Because no pattern is accurate 100% of the time.
So I am left with no indicators and only the candlestick bars of price. I use MetaTrader 4. I just started looking at the Black background with the candle stick bars. With nothing else (no indicators, no news) to distract the ideas started pouring.
- Tried different time frames.
- Compared 2 different time frames like 1min and 15min, 5Min and 1Hr or 15min and 4Hrs.
- Looked at the previous rallies of market and what combinations of bars started the movement
That went on for 8 years with various levels of success and they would always fail eventually. Because market would move in such a fashion that couldnât be explained by the current theory I had at that time. So I archived all the theories I derived over the years and how they eventually failed. With the process of elimination I had no choice but to find new theories that explain market behavior with candlestick bars alone
All these years I tried to predict only EURUSD because there is no point to distract myself with many counters. Since 6 months I have had some consistent success with the EURUSD predictions and I thought it is time to try it on different counters to see how theory holds. That is why I started this thread and giving out predictions on all the 4 majors
The 1st 5 trades took almost the whole of SEP2021. I wanted to test this theory for 50 trades. At the current rate it would take another 9 months
Now youâll have a sense of man hours that has been spent on this endeavor and it is still not 100% success. I suppose even after 50 trades I cannot call it 100% success. Because it could still fail in the future. So I cannot answer your question with all intricate details right now because I donât know what I have in my hand. A diamond or a wild goose chase
But this much I offer now:
- When a TREND REVERSAL (TR) happens it could be VALID or INVALID
- VALID TR can still be voided by market. Then wait for market to comeback to BREAK-EVEN. It must happen before market breaches it existing HILL/BASE. Trade No.3 is the case-in-point
- INVALID TR can still become VALID TR by VOIDING an opposite VALID TR. Trade No.1 is the case-in-point
The pattern I stumbled upon cannot be THE PATTERN. It may be one of many patterns to trade market. But the 3 rules I summarized above gives market the freedom to move any direction it wants. So I suggest the reader to try and apply these rules with his/her own trading method/indicators and I am available for zoom sessions to chat how to incorporate these rules to other trading methodologies. Let me know.
Time: 4OCT2021 1448Hrs
Update on Trade No.7
USDCHF has retraced from the existing HILL of 0.93672 and I entered LONG @ 0.9301 and market has gone down further 60PIPs and hovering around 0.9240. Iâll commit the 2nd quantity @ 0.9201. So BUY-LIMIT is placed at 0.9201
Update on Trade No.6
GBPUSD has retraced from the existing BASE of 1.34107 and hovering around 1.36100, nearly 200PIPs. Market is VALID BEAR-TR and the signal manifest @ 1.35925. But I placed SELL-LIMIT @ 1.3650 and market never retraced up to that level and I lost the BEAR RALLY that went for nearly 180PIPs. So the SELL-LIMIT @ 1.3650 is now readjusted to SELL-SPOT @ 1.3609 and do not commit the 2nd quantity @ 1.3750. Just only one quantity @ 1.3609 and will hedge the position if market VOID the VALID BEAR-TR
Time Zone is always CEST unless otherwise indicated
Time: 7OCT21 1337Hrs CEST
Update on Trade No.6
GBPUSD was sold at 1.3609 on 4OCT21 1448Hrs and market went up to 1.35426 and now market hovering @ 1.3610. There is a scenario I overlooked which is as follows:
A. When market became VALID BEAR-TR on 1-OCT it rallied up to 1.35099 and then formed an INVALID BULL-TR and then resumed BEAR and reached the present BASE of 1.34107. That INVALID BULL-TRâs RALLY HIGH was 1.35535 and now that has been breached already. This is the 1st time I am aware of such scenario and I donât know what the implications are. Does it mean the BEAR TREND is dead already? or the BEAR TREND is still alive until market VOID it? What ever market does now that will be the basis for my rule for such scenario in future
B. So to be on the safe side I am going to EXIT the trade @ 1.3613. That is 4 PIPs LOSS
Post-31 talks about Trade-7
Time: 14OCT2021 1122Hrs
USDCHF did what Trade No.6 had done on Post:32
USDCHF breached a previous INVALID BEAR-TRâs RALLY Value. I am committing the 2nd quantity @ 0.9201. So as of now set the Trade-7 to Break-Even @ 0.9251
Time: 15OCT2021 1519Hrs CEST
Trade-7 EXIT @ Break-Even. As of now no more open trades. All trades are closed now
It looks like in addition to produce a VALID TR market can simply retrace all the way to previous INVALID TRâs RALLY Value and thereby producing a VALID TR. So according to this hypothesis GBPUSD is BULL and USDCHF is BEAR and so I had to get out of Trades 6 and 7. The updated summary is given below
18OCT21;0402Hrs
Trade No.8
Counter: EURUSD
Trade: SELL-STOP @ 1.15820.
18OCT21;0927Hrs CEST
Trade No.8 order filled. So EURUSD is SHORT @ 1.15820 and the HEDGE is 1.16260. It is not CUT-LOSS. Because I am using MetaTrader4, it allows me to hold LONG and SHORT positions of the same counter concurrently
Trade No.9
Counter: AUDUSD
Trade: SELL-SPOT 0.7402
19OCT21; 0231Hrs
Trade No.9 Update
Hedge is set @ 0.7441. If the HEDGE is triggered, we keep the HEDGE and EXIT the Original Trade @ Break-Even and then EXIT the HEDGE in that order
