EURUSD reached a PEAK @ 1.19081 and is currently trading around 1.1865x (it has come down around 40PIPs)
I am betting this downward momentum will not develop into a BEAR TREND. So the counter is still BULL and may resume BULL rally anytime
So I am BUYING EURUSD @ 1.186xx (the ‘xx’ indicates 4h and 5th decimal places can be anything) with the following parameters
TRADE-1: BUY EURUSD @ 1.1865
CUT-LOSS @ 1.18000
Profit-Target @ 1.1908
Now the RISK vs. Rewards is 43PIPs Vs. 65PIPs.
For those who prefer 1:1 then place LIMIT ORDER @ 1.1852 instead of entering @ SPOT
I have been observing a specific pattern that market does during TREND REVERSAL and this instance that pattern didn’t happen
Of course market can do whatever it does. That’s why I set the CUT-LOSS @ 1.18. So it all comes down to which one market will hit first? The profit Target or CUT-LOSS?
I am going to document up to 10 trades (as and when trade setup emerges) and see how this ‘pattern’ influences market course
Trade No.2 is USDCHF and it has comedown from its PEAK of 0.9233X and currently trading at 0.918XX Level and I am betting it will resume its BULL TREND and will breach the existing PEAK. I only have DATA on EURUSD (I used to trade only EURUSD and encouraged by the reliability of the pattern I was talking about earlier, I am using this forum to document other currency as well) so I am going to go LONG with 100PIPs CUT-LOSS. This trade is only paper trade and I am not betting any real money here. So here are the trade parameters:
Counter: USDCHF
BUY-SPOT @ 0.918XX and Take Profit @ 0.9233X and CUT-LOSS @ 0.908XX
While Profit-target can be set with some justification, cut-loss is entirely arbitrary. So DATA is generated on the DRAW value which will guide the future trade’s CUT-LOSS level
It may makes sense to wait for Fed meeting before betting on EURUSD direction. Volatility will likely be high before and after FOMC decision so short-term targets may be risky.
Trade No.3 - USDJPY - SELL-STOP @ 109.50 triggered @ 15-SEP 8.10am CEST and market went up to 109.10. The profit target is set at 100PIPs (108.5). Trade is in progress
Trade No.3 - USDJPY - SELL-STOP @ 109.50 triggered @ 15-SEP 8.10am CEST and market went up to 109.10.
Update on 17-Sep 4:43am CEST
The Valid BEAR-TR is now VOIDED by market. As of now the loss is around 30PIPs
Since it is a valid TR, I wait for market to comeback and BREAK-EVEN the Trade. So the profit-target is now set @ purchase price of 109.50
Of course the market doesn’t have comply my wish so the CUT-LOSS is unchanged @ 110.50
The purpose of this thread to test out my theory over 50 trades. So let’s wait and see what happens to Trade-3. Will the market hit the CUT-LOSS first or Re Adjusted Profit-target first?
Trade No.3 - USDJPY
Update on 20-Sep 1422Hrs CEST
Market reached around 109.4xx and triggered the BREAK-EVEN Profit Target
It was a valid BEAR-TR and when market voided it came down to BREAK-EVEN the trade which is consistent with the previous pattern on other counters. From this point market can continue to go down and breach the previous low of 109.103 and bounce up. For it to resume BEAR RALLY instead of bounce-up it has to produce 1 more signal and I’ll be on the watch out. The fact that I suffered -65 on Trade No.1 made me to to EXIT at BREAK-EVEN instead of setting profit target to the previous low of 109.103.
Here is the summary of all the closed trades thus far:
