What more can I say? What is important is to read and understand the price action and how it can guide your trading towards success.
Trade safe and prosper.
The technical perspective on the USDCAD disposes further southward in my humble opinion.
Trade safe and prosper.
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has maintained a bearish disposition for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating around the 50 Fib zone of the swing down from the high of May 2017 to the low of September 2017. A resistance trendline (red colour) is still being respected by price action. The order flow context is largely under the influence of bears although the bulls took control of the retracement. The candlesticks formed in the past three weeks saw the bears taking charge of affairs and we may see further bearish continuation in the days ahead.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner ascending trendline (magenta colour) and it is now bearing southward respecting a resistance trendline (forest green colour). Price action has moved southward within a channel formed by this resistance trendline and a support trendline from some of the recent lows but it is now located around a minor support area on the H4 time frame; this location is in confluence with the support provided by an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. We may see price action consolidate in this area for a while or pull back to retest the resistance trendline (upper forest green coloured trendline) before a bearish continuation. A break of support is likely to target the 1.25520 area. This may extend to the 1.24370 area, the next support on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in an ascending channel (bound in chocolate coloured lines) on the weekly time frame since April 2017. Effective six weeks ago, price action has broken southward from this channel and is now operating in a south-bound channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week, the bulls managed to push the price northward, resulting in a a bearish rejection candlestick and they may succeed in pushing price to retest the immediate resistance around the 1.18440 area. A turnaround of price action is likely to either result in a bearish continuation or a period of sideways operation because the candlestick formed three weeks’ ago is currently engulfing the two candlesticks formed after it; thus acting as a master candlestick. Furthermore, it should be noted that the current price action is located around the 38.2 Fib zone of the swing up from the low of April 2017 (not shown in chart); thus we may have to wait for clarity of price action before entering a trade.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an area (bound by magenta colored horizontal lines) that has been a strong resistance zone since 2015. This zone was breached to the upside for some days in August and September 2017 but has since remained resistant. The most recent price action last week was bullish and we may expect a retest of the resistance (around 1.18645) before any southward turnaround. An ascending trendline (red colour) from the low of April 10, 2017 is acting as support. Should price action break this trendline southward, this may expose the next horizontal support around the 1.14485 area as a target of bears. Thus, it will be a good strategy to wait for price to break this support trendline southward before looking for a sell trading opportunity. Nevertheless, a rejection of the resistance line of the descending channel (navy colour) southward would offer a feasible sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Price action on this pair has been operating in that zone for quite a while and still remains in a sideways mode on the D1. The attached is a technical update. The outlook is still in favour of bulls but the momentum is weak and we may expect a pullback. Note the support trendline (red colour) which may need be retested before further northward move gains momentum.
Trade safe and prosper.
From my top-down technical analyses of the pairs on my watch list, the NZD is weakest among the majors.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame the pair has moved away further upward from an outer ascending trendline (chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in momentum. Last week, the price action broke away from the monthly central pivot to retest a resistance zone in the 1.73350 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (red colour) but it has moved too far from the trendline and an area of value. This, coupled with the fact that the most recent swing high is close to the one before it, indicates that a pullback is likely to be in the offing. Such a pull back may see price action retesting the support trendline (red colour) or at least the immediate horizontal support around the 1.69370 area (equivalent to a 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing up). In fact, bears managed to push back the price last week Friday. We may expect a follow through early this week.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour) from the low of November 8, 2017. However, the momentum has decreased and bears are beginning to become more influential. They may push price action to retest the trendline (magenta coloured) or even retrace to the immediate minor support zone around the 1.70320 area; which may extend to the 1.69370 area. This forms an immediate horizontal support zone; bound by bold, horizontal blue lines on the attached H4 chart. This zone represents the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the most recent upward swing. Should this zone be defended by bulls, and turnaround northward, the bullish mode will continue. However, should the zone break southward, this may expose the next support around the 1.67935 area and dispose the pair to a bearish mode; potentially targeting the 1.66560 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame, price action on this pair has moved northward and in the past few weeks has been testing an area which it last visited in June 2016. This area, represented by the 1.93330 area may be crucial to the current bullish mode of this pair. Should price action push further northward, a likely target is the 1.99200 area. From that area, we may expect price action to head southward. However, a descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of September 2015 may operate as resistance.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 3017. But the long upper wick on the candlestick formed last week indicates that bears were pushing price southward. This may result in a retest of the trendline.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending wedge and two price waves have formed within it. The third price wave began on Friday and is likely to head southward; otherwise we may see a consolidation of price action or a retest of the resistance line of the wedge. Notice that an inner ascending trendline (blue colour) is being respected as support by price action and current location of price action is about 150 pips above it; so a retest of the trendline may be expected. A breach of this support trendline is likely to see bears target the channel line below, resulting in the completion of the third price wave within the channel. Nevertheles, price action around the 38.2 Fib zone of the recent upward swing (in the region of the 1.92350 area) and around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone (in the region of the 1.90580 area) should be watched. But a breach of the 78.6 Fib zone, just below the support line of the wedge (around the 1.89350 area), is likely to result in a bearish turnaround on this pair.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in a consolidation mode for the past four weeks. Last week, bears took price action below the consolidation area but the attempt was curtailed by bulls. Price action is currently located at a support zone around the 0.67750 area, an area which was last visited in May 2016. As the general mode of the NZD is southward, we may expect the price action to move furthrer south with a potential target being the next support zone around the 0.66860 area, an area which witnessed a bullish rally in May 2016. The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced for further southward disposition of this pair.
On the daily time frame, price action is disposed southward and a resistance trendline (blue colour) from the high of September 22, 2017 is still in play. Two impulsive southward price waves have been formed and a third is in play. However, price action last Friday saw the bulls pushing price back to contain the southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved parabolically further away from the resistance trendline (blue colour) seen on the daily time frame. This is an indication of an increased southward momentum. In fact, the bearish candlesticks are dominant in size and number and we may expect further southward move in the early part of next week before any retracement. The retracement is likely to be to the immediate minor resistance around the 0.70350 area, an area that is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bullish on this pair. Should price action present a favoraouble setup around the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone (bound in bold horizontal blue lines) on the H4 time frame, I will go for a buy trade. However, should price turnaround early, at the support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame, particularly at a location that is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent upward swing, I will look for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement of price to around the 0.70350 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing, before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
I am bullish on this pair only to the point that the 78.6 Fib retracement seen on the H4 time frame around the 1.89350 area is not breached southward. Should price offer a favorable setup, particularly around the support line of the wedge on the H4 time frame or the 61.8 Fib zone (around the 1.90580 area), I will look for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURNZD is disposed northward from a technical perspective. On the weekly time frame, price action which was respecting a support trendline (blue colour) from the low of February 2017, has pushed further upward to respect an inner ascending trendline (red colour). This is indicative of increase in northward momentum. We may expect the zone between the two trendlines to serve as support for some time. A breach of the outer trendline (blue colour) southward on a daily close is likely to shift the disposition of price action in favour of bears. It should be noted that last week an indecision candlestick formed near the closing price of the bullish candlestick formed two weeks ago; this negated any expected follow through of the bullish price action two weeks ago. Therefore, price action in the first two days of trading this week is likely to signpost the market sentiment for the rest of the week.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a wedge-like channel (bound by two red lines). The most recent price action is proximal to a horizontal resistance zone around the 1.73890 area. Recent price action saw bears pushed price back. Should the bears succeed with a follow-through, we may see a period of consolidation or pullback in the early part of this week before further northward push. A pullback to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high should be of interest for a buy trading opportunity. This area lies between 1.70580 and 1.68800.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However, neither the bulls nor the bears are in dominance. As price action is proximal to a horizontal resistance, bears may attempt to push price back towards an area of equilibrium, likely below the support trendline (magenta colour). This area is in the 23.6/38.2 Fib zone of the most recent swing high, lying between 1.72300 and 1.71160. Such a move is likely to offer a sell trading opportunity but lingering in such a trade should be avoided as the bigger technical outlook favours the bulls.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically the pair is disposed northward. On the weekly time frame, price action has moved northward from an area of consolidation around the 1.71340 area. However, last week bears contained bulls from pushing price further up after a strong bullish move two weeks ago. This restraining action on the part of bears resulted in an indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame last week. Price action is currently around a resistance zone.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour). The recent price action is in a consolidation phase. This may result in a retest of the support trendline before further northward move. We may expect such a pullback to target the 1.73760 area. An initial target for bulls is the 1.76250 area, which is an extension of the immediate resistance zone.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However, the price action is in an area of consolidation and momentum seems to be waning. This may lead to a pullback in the early sessions this week before a bullish continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
This pair has been operating within a range (between 108.140 and 114.280) since February 2017. On the weekly time frame, this area (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is located approximately between the 32.8 and 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. Currently, price action is around the resistance channel line of the range and bearing southward. The technicals on the wekly time frame are in sync for bearish disposition and the 108.140/10 area is likely to be a target of such a southward move. A descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of June 2015 is acting as resistance.
On the daily time frame, price action is strongly under the control of bears. On Friday, the bulls attempted to push price up but were restrained by bears. Should bulls manage a follow-through early this week, we may see a retracement upward, with a likely target being the immediate resistance around the 112.680 area, and may extend to test an inner resistance trendline (navy colour).
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an area of consolidation but the last session saw the formation of an indecision candlestick which failed to take out the high of the previous candlestick. It was apparent from the number and size of the bullish candlesticks that the bulls were more influential. We may see a retracement to the upside before a southward continuation materializes. Such a retracement may extend to validate the inner resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame, perhaps at an area of comnfluence to the 38.2 Fib retracement of the swing down from the high of November 6, 2017. This area is around the 112.680 handle.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
It may be feasible to look to trading this pair southward from a break of the support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame. However, this should be an interim trade. For me, the big opportunity is likely to come from a buy setup upon a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high. This area lies between 1.70580 and 1.68800. Should a set-up in this area not materialize, I will step aside and wait for what happens around the 78.6 Fib zone, near the 1.67935 area; which is proximal to the monthly central pivot.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for price action to retrace to at least the 112.680 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I am bullish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement to around the 1.73760 area before looking for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
It has taken much of this week for price action on USDJPY to retrace to the 38.2 Fib zone. Now we can look for further southward move for the next few trading days.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tempted to trade EURUSD southward because of a low time frame signal, e.g. a double top on M30 tf, check yourself. Imho, EURUSD still has a disposition northward if you look at a higher time frame, e.g D1. You may be looking at the 1.20060 area before a turnaround can be considered.
Trade safe and prosper.