EURUSD Top Down Analysis

You can make some money trading AUDUSD or NZDUSD southward today as you have technical clarity on the pairs; step aside from EURUSD which is erratic/sideways atm.

Trade safe and prosper.

Here’s a video you may find helpful on technical analysis of price action.

Trade safe and prosper.

I have just finished the first phase of screening the pairs on my watch list. Technically you can expect EURUSD to bear southward next week. It is operating within a descending channel on the W1 time frame and at 50 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of June 2014 to the low of March 2015.

Trade safe and prosper.

And of course you can see a topping formation on the D1 time frame.

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

EURUSD has been in a ranging mood for a while. And on the monthly time frame, the price action has been somewhat ambivalent. Price action has been operating in a zone that held as an S/R zone on a multi-year basis. Most recently, the zone was visited in July 2017 after it was last broken southward in January 2015. Currently, price action is operating within the upper part of the bullish candlestick formed in November 2017 but has a strong bearish tone.

On the weekly time frame, price action is operating within a descending channel and at the 50 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of June 2014 to the low of March 2015. Two price waves have formed within the channel. A third price wave southward seems to be emerging with two bearish candlesticks from channel resistance line. However, we may expect a struggle around the 1.16720 area.

A topping pattern has formed on the daily time frame, which is favourable to bears. We may see bears target the channel support line but the 1.15335/1.14840 area is likely to be a strong support zone and difficult to break down.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

After a long period of consolidation between 2008 and 2014, price action on GBPUSD broke down the consolidation channel in January 2016. On the weekly time frame, two impulse price waves have been formed with corresponding corrective waves. Presently, price action is riding the second corrective wave in an ascending channel formation (bound in blue coloured lines). We should note that price action is respecting a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 2014. Although the most recent price action has spiked above the resistance trendline, it coiuld not breach it as bears restrained the move. This led to the formation of an indecision candlestick last week. The corrective channel (blue colour) is still in play but the most recent price action has been limited to the lower half of the channel (mid-line coloured in red). We may expect a southward move which could retest channel support and may breach it to target the immediate horizontal support around the 1.29460 area. Alternatively, price action may dispose northward to retest the mid-line or the immediate resistance around 1.35750 area.

On the H4 time frame, price action has surged southward into a significant S/R zone. This zone has a confluence of support: the mid-line (red colour) of the channel seen on the weekly time frame, the monthly central pivot, a previous demand level and an ascending trendline (turquoise colour) from the low of November 13, 2017. We may expect price action to operate sideways within the zone before further southward move materializes. Should price action break below this zone, bears are likely to target the immediate major horizontal support around the 1.29460 area. Technically, this seems to be a more likely scenario than the alternative of bulls taking price much further up, although we may see a little pullback because of the immediate hurdles bears have to handle around the current location of price action.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The southward move which AUDUSD began in September 2017 has continued. On the weekly time frame, two bearish price waves have been formed. Last week, a third price wave southward kicked in with a bearish pinbar around the monthly central pivot breaking down a consolodiation zone. We may expect a consummation of this southward move in the days ahead. A likely target of bears is the 0.73350 area.

On the daily time frame, it is apparent that the order flow is under the control of bears as attempts by bulls to push price to higher grounds were effectively neutralized. The formation of relatively big candlesticks with long upper wicks is an indication of the intent of bears to consummate their southward operation. However, how bears tackle the next support zone around the 0.74660 area is crucial. We may see a sideways operation in that area or even a brief pullback before the descent continues. Currently, price action is within a descending channel and it has to break below the channel support line before an increase in southward momentum can be expected.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

All the GBPAUD candlesticks on the monthly time frame since September 2017 have been strongly bullish. However, price action on the monthly time frame has entered a strong resistancde zone and we may expect a period of consolidation or sideways operation on this pair in the early part of this week. On the weekly time frame, price action has broken a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 but a support trendline from the low of August 2017 is still in play. We may expect price action to retest this trendline or at least pullback before further northward move. Should price action manage to push upward, we may see bulls target the next resistance zone around the 1.83090 area. However, we should be aware of a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the highs of the recent candlesticks in an operating ascending wedge formation. This is likely to hinder the advance of price action northward; which may result in a retracement of price action to the support trendine (navy colour) or a sideways disposition in the days ahead.

On the daily time frame, last week price action entered a resistance zone formed by two resistance trendlines (in magenta and red colours) and retraced southward from them. Note that price action is operating in an ascending channel within the context of a longer-term descending trend. Thus, we may expect price to bear southward, particularly as price action is at the distal part of the channel. A first target for bears is likely to be the channel support; this is may be followed by a target of the immediate support zone around the 1.68850 area.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (bound by blue coloured lines). This is apparently a corrective pattern. The most recent price action on this time frame last week Friday were predominantly bearish and in the area of channel resistance. Thus, we may see at least a retest of channel support soon. A break of channel support may see bears target the immediate horizontal support around the 1.73740 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

If you are tracking USDCAD, it may be a time for a southward turnaround. Personally I have taken a short trade at a level I was watching (See attached chart.)

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

This trade was aborted after a few pips’ gain as momentum was turning northward.

Trade safe and prosper.

Technically, the market outlook is still bearish but on the short-term basis the pair is in a consolidation; atm it is bearing northward in a corrective mode. See the ascending wedge formation in attached D1 chart.

Trade safe and prosper.

If you are tracking XAUUSD (GOLD), note that current price action is close to the weekly 200 SMA, which is flat atm. If price action breaks the weekly 200 SMA southward, you may expect bears to target the next significant support around the 1211.70 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Although I’m not an Elliot wave trader, looking at both the D1 and H1 time frames, it is obvious that price action on XAUUSD (GOLD) is riding a third wave southward. So, we may likely see a further bearish move before a correction.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Now it seems to me that the price should go down to the bottom of the blue line. Or it will go a little higher up to resistance 1.1860

EURUSD is in a ranging mode. Looking at the MN and W1 time frames, you will notice that the price action is at a zone that has held as S/R on a multi-year basis. A topping formation is occuring in the D1 time frame and a southward trade is feasible provided that price action is around channel resistance and a bearish signal can be found on a lower tine frame, say H1. See attached D1 chart.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

I am tracking AUDUSD. From the perspective of a swing trader, the feasible option I’m looking for trading this pair is to sell rallies.

Attached D1 chart shows the W1 (red) and D1 (purple) resistance trendlines are still being respected.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Price action on GBPUSD is generally choppy and lacks momentum. The price waves are generally corrective (check the D1 and W1 time frames). Although the pair is slightly disposed northward at the moment, there are a lot of barriers for bulls to tackle.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

See attached.

Yup - you may - but if you are - why do you publish this “helpful” scenario ? :pensive:

I never said, ‘I am wrong.’ Humility and need to warn fellow traders about risk define how you post on a public forum like this.

Trade safe and prosper.