Falling Yields Lift Metals as Currencies Stabilize (10.09.2026)
US stock futures stabilized Friday after a tech selloff linked to reports that OpenAI’s annualized revenue reached $50 billion, below the previously cited $68 billion.
The S&P 500 fell 0.47% and Nasdaq 1.25%, with Intel, Micron and AMD among the biggest losers. Consumer sentiment data and earnings from Delta and BlackRock are next.
Japan’s 10-year yield fell to 3.03%, tracking lower US yields after strong demand at a 30-year Treasury auction. August consumer spending declined for a ninth month, while BOJ member Ayano Sato supported gradual hikes. PM Takaichi also proposed food tax cuts without issuing new bonds.
The US 10-year yield eased to 5.23%, pulling further away from 24-year highs after a strong 30-year auction. Lower oil prices following Trump’s comments on productive Iran talks offered relief. Traders price an 82% chance of an October Fed hold, although Governor Waller still sees further hikes as likely.
The dollar index eased toward 102 as falling Treasury yields and lower oil prices reduced support for the currency. Strong demand at the US 30-year auction and signs of progress in Iran talks contributed to the decline. Fed expectations stand at an 82% chance of an October hold and 81% probability of a December hike.
Economic Calendar
| Time |
Cur. |
Event |
Forecast |
Previous |
| 13:30 |
USD |
ECB’s Schnabel Speaks |
- |
- |
| 14:00 |
USD |
Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations (Oct) |
- |
4.6% |
| 14:00 |
USD |
Michigan Consumer Sentiment (Oct) |
47.5 |
48.1 |
EUR/USD Edges Up to 1.1225
EUR/USD rose 0.13% toward 1.1225 on Friday, attempting to stabilize after touching a 17-month low near 1.1162 earlier this week. Upward momentum remains capped as Fed Governor Waller highlighted resilient U.S. economic strength and stubborn inflation.
Ongoing French fiscal paralysis and widening U.S.-Europe yield spreads continue to weigh on single-currency sentiment.
The first resistance is positioned at 1.1250 while the support starts from 1.1180.
Gold Rebounds Past $4,150
Gold climbed above $4,150 per ounce on Friday, securing a second straight session of gains as lower oil prices and falling bond yields relieved pressure on the metal. Crude pulled back after President Donald Trump noted productive talks with Tehran and ruled out military strikes before the midterms.
Interest rate expectations shifted, with traders pricing an 82% probability of an October Federal Reserve pause alongside an 81% chance of a December rate hike.
First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4130.
Yen is Under Pressure Near 158
The Japanese Yen slipped toward 158 per dollar on Friday, heading for a fourth consecutive weekly loss. The currency remains burdened by wide U.S.-Japan interest rate differentials, ultra-low domestic rates, and a high public debt load. Adding to economic headwinds, August household spending dropped for a ninth straight month.
Meanwhile, dovish fiscal policy under Sanae Takaichi and BoJ member Ayano Sato’s preference for gradual, cautious rate hikes continue to limit near-term yen support.
First resistance is seen at 158.60, with initial support near 157.50.
GBP/USD Firms Near $1.3240
The British Pound rose toward $1.3240 on Friday, stabilizing following a volatile multi-week slide. Sterling drew support as Fed Governor Waller’s openness to an October rate pause weighed on the dollar, while BoE official Catherine Mann warned UK inflation could retest 4% by year-end.
However, elevated oil prices continue to fuel volatility and cap upside gains.
From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3190.
Silver Rebounds Above $60
Silver rebounded above $60 per ounce on Friday, recovering from two-month lows as easing oil prices and retreating Treasury yields lifted non-yielding assets. Crude pulled back after President Trump noted productive talks with Tehran, while strong demand at a 30-year bond auction helped cool yields from recent highs.
Traders currently price an 82% chance of an October Fed rate pause and 81% odds of a December hike.
From a technical view, resistance stands near $61.50, while support is located around $59,25.
Brent Crude Oil
Brent crude fell toward $103 per barrel, paring Thursday’s gains after Trump cited productive talks with Iran and pledged no strikes before the midterms.
Reports stated that Washington prepared plans for three days of strikes on Iran. Meanwhile, Hurricane Isaias forced Gulf of Mexico producers to shut down about 1.3 million barrels per day.
Resistance is seen at 104,50, while the nearest support stands at 101.50.
Nasdaq 100
The Nasdaq-100 fell 1.39% to 30,726 while chipmakers slid on profit-taking after weaker AI software revenue growth. Futures rose about 0.36% on Friday, attempting to stabilize ahead of the open.
Moderna officially joins the index today, replacing Warner Bros. Discovery.
Resistance stands at 31.200, while the nearest support is located at 30,500.
Offshore Chinese Yuan
The offshore yuan rose to about 6.69 per dollar after two steady sessions, as China defended its currency policy with EU trade talks.
EU officials argue the undervalued yuan boosts Chinese exporters and widens the bloc’s over €1 billion daily trade deficit, while the PBOC said exchange rates alone cannot fix global imbalances.
The first resistance stands at 6.7110, while support begins at 6.6910.
Bitcoin (BTC/USD)
Bitcoin fell 1.9% to around $82,281 as selling pressure intensified. Over $700 million in leveraged long positions were liquidated in 24 hours, while US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw $484.9 million in daily outflows, the largest since June.
A US regulatory crackdown blacklisting 27 entities linked to illicit digital finance also hurt investor sentiment.
Initial resistance sits near 85,400, with support around 79,500.
