EURUSD Top Down Analysis

[Ifx78]

The USD strengthened over the weekend as the release of stronger-than-expected NFP data boosted expectations for a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve. U.S. payrolls rose by 162,000 in August, far exceeding the expected 56,000. With the unemployment rate remaining at 4.1%, the data heightened expectations that the Fed might maintain or raise interest rates; the market briefly priced in a 62% probability of a Fed rate hike in September.

The ECB is expected to raise interest rates by 25 basis points on September 10, meaning the policy divergence between the Fed and the ECB has not yet fully favored the USD. U.S. inflation data, due for release on September 10, serves as the next catalyst; if the CPI comes in higher than expected, USD yields could rise, potentially putting downward pressure on the EUR/USD pair.

[ZforexCM]

Strong US Jobs Lift Dollar, Pressure Metals (09.07.2026)

Global markets started the week with renewed focus on Federal Reserve tightening after stronger U.S. employment data lifted September rate-hike expectations.

Asia-Pacific tech shares rallied on hopes that a new OpenAI model could lift memory-chip demand. Japan’s Nikkei gained more than 2% and South Korea’s KOSPI over 3%, while strong US jobs data and higher oil prices kept rate concerns in play.

The dollar index held above 99 after US payrolls jumped 162,000 in August, well above the 56,000 forecast. Unemployment stayed at 4.1%, wage growth eased to 3.1%, and September Fed hike odds climbed to around 60% from 50%. US-Iran ship strikes and higher oil also supported the dollar.

Japan’s 10-year yield steadied around 2.91% as PM adviser Takuji Aida pointed to possible BOJ hikes in September and again by January. Takaichi’s expansionary fiscal policy has also pressured bonds, while an unusual GPIF meeting raised speculation that the $2 trillion fund could increase its domestic bond allocation.

After the strong jobs report, Thursday’s PPI and Friday’s CPI will provide the next test for Fed Chair Warsh’s hawkish stance. Oracle earnings will offer another look at AI financing and debt, with Adobe and Macy’s also reporting Thursday.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
All Day	CAD	Canada – Labor Day (Holiday)
All Day	USD	United States – Labor Day (Holiday)

EUR/USD Holds Near 1.1609

EUR/USD traded near 1.1609, holding within a tight range as markets weighed broad dollar strength against shifting Fed and ECB interest rate expectations.

The pair faced resistance near 1.1720 while holding support around 1.1650, with moving averages reflecting an ongoing tug-of-war between institutional and retail investors.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1550.

Gold Falls Toward $4,400

Gold dropped toward $4,400 on Monday, continuing its decline after surprisingly strong US employment data elevated Fed rate-hike expectations.

Nonfarm payrolls surged by 162,000 in August, beating forecasts and lifting September hike probabilities to around 60%. Pressure on bullion intensified as rising oil prices, fueled by US-Iran maritime strikes, added to ongoing inflation concerns.

First resistance is seen at $4450, with initial support near $4380.

Yen Holds Near 156

The Japanese yen hovered near 156 against the dollar, building on last week’s 2% rally as expectations for Bank of Japan rate increases mounted. Government economic advisers signaled potential hikes in September and January.

Unwinding carry trades and US pressures offered additional support, even as data revealed a record $79.6 billion drop in Japan’s August foreign exchange reserves following massive market interventions.

First resistance is seen at 158.00, with initial support near 155.10.

Pound Weakens Toward $1.35

The British pound eased toward $1.35, hovering near a two-week low as strong US jobs data supported the dollar and heightened Fed rate-hike expectations. August nonfarm payrolls rose 162,000, lifting September hike odds near 60%.

Meanwhile, UK markets fully price a Bank of England rate increase by year-end, following comments from BoE official Pill warning against delayed tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3590, with support around 1.3470.

Silver Drops Below $66

Silver slipped below $66 on Monday, deepening losses as solid US employment figures raised expectations for Federal Reserve policy tightening. August nonfarm payrolls added 162,000 jobs, topping estimates and pushing September rate-hike odds to nearly 60%.

Rising oil prices following maritime strikes between the US and Iran placed additional downward pressure on the metal by feeding inflation worries.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.20, while support is located around $65.70.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude rose toward $97, extending gains as the US and Iran exchanged strikes in the Middle East.

The US targeted three Iranian oil tankers over the weekend after Iranian missile attacks on US Navy warships, prompting Tehran to strike US-linked vessels and plan a “restricted” zone beyond Hormuz.

The US Energy Secretary said naval presence and the blockade on Iranian oil exports would continue. Oil is up about 10% since fighting resumed last week.

Resistance is seen at 98.25, while the nearest support stands at 93.00.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 closed at 29,544, up 0.21%, though US markets are shut on Monday for Labor Day.

Futures show a roughly 0.90% pullback to around 29,248 as traders digest recent economic data and Fed rate expectations.

Large-cap tech and chipmaker shares continue to anchor the index’s trend, balancing growth optimism against rate-hike concerns.

Resistance stands at 29,950, while the nearest support is located at 28,900

Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)

The offshore yuan edged lower to around 6.71 per dollar, retreating from a three-year high as the PBOC signaled a more measured approach to appreciation.

The central bank set its midpoint 709 pips weaker than estimates, the largest deviation since February 2025. Chinese banks raised dollar deposit rates and supported Treasury purchases, while China injected CNY 300 billion into major banks and insurers in its biggest recapitalization in nearly two decades.

Resistance stands at 6.7300, while the nearest support is located at 6.7050.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin trades near $79,940, up 1.64% as buyers push toward the $80,000 resistance level.

Dovish comments from Fed Governor Waller briefly lifted Bitcoin above $81,000 before a strong August jobs report revived rate-hike concerns. Steady inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs and a shifting regulatory outlook continue to support a structural floor near recent lows.

First resistance is seen at 82,400, with initial support near 76.500.

[Ifx78]

The ECB is a key factor underpinning the Euro. The central bank is expected to raise interest rates on September 10, and recent developments have even led Deutsche Bank to forecast further hikes in December due to inflationary pressures stemming from high energy prices. Conversely, rising oil prices driven by US-Iran geopolitical tensions could exacerbate inflation in Europe while simultaneously dampening economic growth. Meanwhile, the US dollar is finding support in robust US labor market data and growing expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike. Markets currently price in a roughly 60% probability of a Fed rate increase, though traders will be closely watching Friday’s US CPI data, which could serve as the next catalyst.

[ZforexCM]

Rate Hike Bets Increase as Oil Fuels Inflation Risks (09.08.2026)

Global markets remained focused on rising energy prices and expectations for further monetary tightening across major economies.

The dollar index slipped to around 98.8, falling for a second session as BOJ tightening bets and carry trade unwinding lifted the yen. Traders price in roughly 60% odds of a 25bp Fed hike next week after Friday’s strong jobs report, while this week’s inflation data and expected ECB tightening are next. US-Iran fighting also kept oil and inflation risks in play.

Japan’s 10-year yield fell to around 2.89% as the yen reached a seven-month high, easing inflation pressure. Carry trade unwinding, repatriation bets and US calls for tighter policy supported the currency, while a BOJ hike is expected this month and another could follow by January. Wages grew at their fastest pace since 1997, and Q2 GDP was revised higher.

The US 10-year yield held around 4.77% before this week’s inflation data. August payrolls rose 162K, well above forecasts, with earlier months revised higher, pushing odds of a 25bp Fed hike to roughly 60%. Expected ECB and BOJ tightening and higher oil prices added to rate pressure.

US stock futures edged lower as trading resumed after the holiday weekend. Oil extended gains following weekend US-Iran strikes, while Canada’s retaliatory tariffs on $20 billion of US goods took effect. Fed hike odds stood near 60%, as Uber prepared a euro bond debut and Novo Nordisk halted two more heart-drug trials.

Euro Holds Steady Above $1.16

The euro held steady just above $1.16 as market participants assessed political shifts in Germany following the far-right AfD party’s decisive election victory in Saxony-Anhalt, which dealt a setback to Chancellor Merz’s conservative coalition. Investors are also monitoring climbing crude oil prices near multi-week peaks after US military strikes on Iranian oil tankers, adding to inflationary pressures.

Meanwhile, traders fully price an ECB interest rate increase this Thursday, with high expectations for a subsequent hike before year-end.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1640 while the support starts from 1.1600.

Gold Holds Near $4,400 Amid Rate Hikes

Gold hovered near $4,400 on Tuesday, constrained by expectations of upcoming rate hikes from major central banks as elevated oil prices keep inflation risks high. Traders see a 60% chance of a Fed rate increase next week, alongside expected tightening from the ECB and BOJ.

Ongoing US-Iran conflict maintains upward pressure on energy prices, providing a underlying cushion for bullion.

First resistance is seen at $4460, with initial support near $4380.

Yen Strengthens Past 154

The Japanese yen advanced past 154 against the dollar on Tuesday, reaching its strongest point since February and extending its recovery from July’s historic lows. Broad unwinding of carry trades, expectations of capital repatriation, and external pressure for tighter monetary policy drove the currency higher.

Investors increasingly anticipate a Bank of Japan rate hike this month, supported by the administration’s open stance toward tightening and wage growth accelerating at its fastest pace since 1997.

First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.

Sterling Gains Traction Near 1.3540

GBP/USD consolidated near 1.3540, establishing higher lows as UK Finance Minister Healey’s fiscal discipline pledge helped stabilize government bond yields near 5.15%.

Although strong US jobs data initially supported the dollar, dollar momentum slowed following hawkish remarks from the Bank of England’s chief economist, with investors now anticipating up to two British rate increases over the next six months.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3560, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Recovers Above $66

Silver climbed above $66 on Tuesday, though gains remained capped as traders prepared for potential interest rate increases from global central banks responding to oil-driven inflation.

Markets currently price in a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, with tightening also anticipated from the ECB and BOJ. Sustained US-Iran tensions keep energy prices elevated, offering continuous structural support for precious metals.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $67.50, while support is located around $66.00.

BRENT Oil

Brent held above $97, near six-week highs, after Iran said an Oman agreement on managing Hormuz shipping was close to completion, raising questions over Tehran’s growing control of the waterway.

Attention also turns to the US response following weekend strikes on Iranian tankers.

Oil gained nearly 10% last week, while Aramco’s Jazan facility was hit Monday. Roughly 7 million barrels per day still pass through Hormuz.

Resistance is seen at 98.50, while the nearest support stands at 96.00.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq 100 traded near 29,670, consolidating below the 30,000 threshold as strong AI infrastructure demand competes with higher Fed rate expectations.

Semiconductor and AI stocks continue to provide support, while the prospect of tighter policy puts pressure on growth-heavy tech valuations.

The first resistance stands at 29,950, while initial support is at 29,450.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin traded near $79,000, consolidating after meeting resistance around $80,000 to $83,000. Futures open interest of roughly $27.5 billion is running ahead of softer spot demand, while more than $200 million in long positions were recently liquidated.

Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to record net inflows, helping cushion declines, though higher bond yields and hawkish central bank signals are limiting upside.

First resistance is seen at 80,000, with initial support near 76.500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan

The offshore yuan held around 6.7100 per dollar, near its strongest level since January 2023, supported by strong Chinese trade figures. Exports jumped 25.0% year-on-year to $401.44 billion in August, while imports surged 28.2% and the trade surplus widened to $119.09 billion.

The figures come as Washington pressures Beijing before a planned Trump-Xi meeting, with the current tariff truce set to expire in November.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

[Ifx78]

EUR/USD is consolidating within the 1.16250–1.16450 range. Market conditions are characterized by compression ahead of the ECB’s interest rate decision and the release of US jobless claims data. The ECB is set to announce its monetary policy today. A 135-basis-point yield spread between the ECB and the Fed continues to act as a drag on aggressive euro appreciation. Surging oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions, are worsening the Eurozone’s terms of trade. While high inflation reinforces expectations that the ECB will maintain a hawkish stance, elevated energy costs are simultaneously weighing on the region’s economic growth outlook.

The US Dollar Index (DXY) is hovering near multi-month lows. US dollar weakness is providing support, preventing the EUR/USD pair from falling further.

[ZforexCM]

Euro Gains Ahead of ECB Decision (09.10.2026)

Europe could get another rate hike today, as higher oil prices make the ECB’s inflation challenge harder. A further increase by year-end is priced in with near certainty, even as policymakers stick to a data-dependent path.

US PPI is due later today, followed by CPI on Friday, putting the Fed outlook back in play. Gold is holding near $4,400, while the US 100 has slipped 0.29% to 29,258 as rate uncertainty weighs on tech.

Brent is holding near $101, close to its highest since May, as the US-Iran conflict raises the risk of further supply disruptions. Higher oil prices add another inflation challenge as major central banks consider tighter policy.

Economic Calendar

Euro Advances to $1.1640

The euro rose toward $1.1640, touching its highest level since late August as investors positioned ahead of the European Central Bank’s policy decision on Thursday. Markets anticipate another interest rate increase and a continued data-dependent approach, even as ongoing military conflicts in Iran create further uncertainty for regional inflation trends.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1680 while the support starts from 1.1600.

Gold Stays Flat Near $4,400

Gold held near $4,400 per ounce on Thursday, preserving gains from the prior session as market participants awaited incoming US inflation data for direction on future Federal Reserve interest rate moves. Investors are monitoring Thursday’s producer price index report, followed by key consumer price figures scheduled for release on Friday.

First resistance is seen at $4440, with initial support near $4390.

Yen Keeps Stable Near 153.4

The Japanese yen hovered around 153.4 per dollar on Thursday, remaining near seven-month peaks ahead of an anticipated Bank of Japan rate hike next week. Board members are broadly expected to raise the key interest rate to 1.25%, reaching a three-decade high following the central bank’s previous tightening action in June.

First resistance is seen at 154.50, with initial support near 152.80.

Pound Edges to $1.354

The British pound rose toward $1.354, sustained by expanding expectations that the Bank of England will pursue additional interest rate increases to counter mounting inflation. Meanwhile, energy markets surged as Brent crude briefly touched $100 per barrel and domestic natural gas hit multi-year highs, driven by intensifying Middle East conflict and heightened supply disruption fears.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3570, with support around 1.3500.

Silver Holds Above $67

Silver traded above $67 per ounce on Thursday, maintaining recent gains while investors focused on key US inflation reports that could shape future Federal Reserve policy. The August producer price index arrives later today, followed by consumer inflation figures scheduled for release on Friday.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $68.50, while support is located around $64,90.

Brent Oil

Brent held around $101 a barrel, close to its highest level since May, as US-Iran tensions raised the risk of further Middle East supply disruptions. Tehran said it was prepared to intensify the conflict, challenge the US naval blockade and increase attacks if US forces continue targeting Iranian territory.

The first resistance stands at $102.50, while initial support is at $98.00.

Nasdaq 100

The US 100 Tech Index fell 86 points to 29,258. The index has declined 0.91% over the past four weeks but is still up 21.95% over the past 12 months. Forecasts point to 28,915 by quarter-end and 27,106 within a year.

The first resistance stands at 29,950, while initial support is at 29,350.

Offshore Chinese Yuan

The offshore yuan held near 6.7063 per dollar, its strongest level since early 2023, as demand for the currency as a carry-trade funding option grew. With the yen strengthening sharply, the yuan has gained appeal as an alternative due to China’s low interest rates and relatively stable currency.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin traded at $78,402, up 0.18% from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has gained 23.37% over the past month but is still 32.14% lower year-on-year. Forecasts point to $80,762 by quarter-end and $90,339 within a year.

The first resistance is around $80,500, while initial support stands at $76,500.

[TrapTheMarket]

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The XAUUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is sideways. Presently, the market operation is at the 4948.33 area.

The XAUUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways at the 4948.33 area. Recent technical prints favour northward price action to retest an intra-day value area.

The XAUUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways at the 4948.33 area. The technical environment favour northward price action to retest an intra-day value area, such as a market imbalance. However, we may see a brief southward price action in the early part of the week before such northward liquidity engineering…

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[TrapTheMarket]

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish. Last week the market operation printed a bearish continuation candlestick. Presently, the market operation is at the 153.940 area, which is about 190 pips above the immediate significant horizontal support at the 151.850 area.

The USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is presently sideways at the 153.940. There was a bearish drive to the area on Tuesday before the price action went sideways. Recent technical prints favour further southward price action.

The USDJPY price action on the H4 time frame is sideways. The preceding technical impulse was bearish. And bears may be incentivized to retest the But bears may be incentivize to retest an intra-day value area before any northward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[TrapTheMarket]

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame went sideways last week at the 1.15950 area. The preceding technical impulse was bullish. Nevertheless, the technical environment is ambivalent.

The EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is in consolidation. Presently, the price action is tackling the 1.15950 intra-day horizontal support, but we may see further northward price action to retest the 1.16940 horizontal resistance, which aligns with the 78.6-fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. But the bigger technical environment is ambivalent.

The EURUSD price action on the H4 time frame is in consolidation. Presently, the price action is tackling the 1.15950 intra-day horizontal support, but we may see further northward price action to retest the 1.16940 horizontal resistance, which aligns with the 78.6-fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. However, the bigger technical environment is ambivalent.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[TrapTheMarket]

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame went sideways last week at the 1.35200 area. This is about 100 pips above the 78.6-fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. The technical environment of the market is ambivalent. The 1.35870 area is the prevailing horizontal resistance.

The GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame retested the 1.35200 intra-day horizontal resistance on Friday. The area is about 100 pips above the 78.6-fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. Recent technical prints favour bulls more than bears and we may still see further northward price action during the week but bigger technical environment is ambivalent.

The GBPUSD price action on the H4 time frame is sideways. Presently, it is tackling the 1.35200 area. The area is about 100 pips above the 78.6-fib retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. Although the bigger technical environment is ambivalent, recent technical prints favour bulls more than bears. And we may still see further northward price action during the week, but this may may be short-lived.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[ZforexCM]

Dollar Strengthens as Markets Brace for Fed (09.15.2026)

Central bank policy takes center stage as investors prepare for a series of major rate decisions this week.

A 25bp Fed hike on Wednesday is now priced at around 92%, with oil above $100 and the US 10-year yield approaching 5%, reinforcing inflation concerns. The dollar strengthened, pushing the euro toward $1.15 and the yen toward 155.

The ECB has already hiked and at least one more increase is priced this year. The BoE is expected to hold Thursday in a close decision, while the BOJ could raise rates to 1.25% Friday, the highest since April 1995.

Chinese fixed-asset investment fell 7.2%, retail sales growth slowed to 0.4%, and unemployment rose to 5.3%. Industrial output improved to 5.2%, while the decline in house prices eased to 3%, leaving pressure on Beijing to add support as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target again.

Check more on zForex

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Actual	Forecast	Previous
06:00	GBP	UK Unemployment Rate	4.9%	5.0%	4.9%
17:00	EUR	ECB’s Schnabel Speaks	-	-	-

Euro Slips Toward $1.15

The euro weakened toward $1.15, its lowest since mid-August, as the dollar remained firm ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. Oil above $100 amid escalating Gulf tensions added to inflation concerns and pressured bond markets.

Following last week’s rate increase, the ECB signaled further tightening, with markets expecting at least one more hike this year. Attention now turns to the Fed on Wednesday, BoE on Thursday and BoJ on Friday, with the BoJ widely expected to raise rates.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1560 while the support starts from 1.1530.

Gold Holds Near Five-Week Low

Gold traded around $4,300 per ounce, remaining near a five-week low as rising oil prices strengthened expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price roughly a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline and uncertainty over Russia-Ukraine energy attacks kept oil elevated. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on gold. The Bank of Japan is also widely expected to raise rates on Friday.

First resistance is seen at $4350, with initial support near $4260.

Yen Eases Toward 155

The Japanese yen weakened toward 155 per dollar, extending losses for a second session as the dollar strengthened ahead of an expected Fed rate hike. Higher oil prices also pressured Japan’s energy-dependent economy.

Still, the yen remained near seven-month highs amid expectations for tighter BoJ policy and carry-trade unwinding. The BoJ is widely expected to raise rates to 1.25% on Friday, the highest since April 1995, with markets also watching for signals of another hike this year.

First resistance is seen at 155.00, with initial support near 153.80.

Pound Falls Below $1.35

The British pound fell below $1.35, its weakest since mid-August, as the dollar strengthened ahead of Wednesday’s expected Fed rate hike. The BoE is expected to hold rates at 3.75% on Thursday, although rising oil prices have increased inflation concerns.

Goldman Sachs expects a 25-basis-point hike in November, supported by persistent inflation and resilient UK growth. Markets are pricing in four BoE hikes by mid-2027, while Governor Andrew Bailey remains cautious about near-term tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3530, with support around 1.3450.

Silver Holds Near Five-Week Low

Silver traded near $63 per ounce, close to a five-week low as elevated oil prices reinforced expectations for tighter Fed policy. Markets now price around a 92% chance of a 25-basis-point hike on Wednesday.

Continued disruption to Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline kept energy prices elevated, while the 10-year Treasury yield approached 5%, adding pressure on silver. The Bank of Japan is also expected to raise rates on Friday amid persistent inflation risks.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.80, while support is located around $62,70.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent approached $107 a barrel as supply concerns persisted. Saudi Arabia’s drone-damaged East-West pipeline, which bypasses Hormuz, remained closed with no restart date, while Iran-Gulf talks over the strait were shelved. Tehran reported a supertanker explosion after it hit mines in a prohibited area and said talks with the US would not resume until its demands were met.

Zelenskyy, meanwhile, offered to halt attacks on Russian energy infrastructure if Russia reciprocated, contradicting Trump’s claim that both sides had already agreed.

Resistance is seen at 110.00, while the nearest support stands at 107.00.

Nasdaq 100

The US 100 Tech Index fell 0.82%, to 29,088. It is down 3.03% over four weeks but remains 19.83% higher over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst estimates project 28,740 by quarter-end and 26,934 in one year.

Resistance stands at 29,250, while the nearest support is located at 28,850.

Offshore Chinese Yuan (USD/CNH)

The offshore yuan held near 6.71 per dollar, retreating from a three-year-plus high as Chinese data sent mixed signals. Fixed-asset investment fell 7.2% in January–August, the sharpest drop for the period since January–April 2020; retail sales growth slowed to a three-month low of 0.4%, and unemployment rose to a five-month high of 5.3% from 5.2%.

Better news came from house prices, down 3% annually, the smallest fall since December 2025, while industrial output growth accelerated to 5.2% from 4.5%. Fiscal support is increasing after a prolonged decline in public spending, but more stimulus may be needed as growth risks missing the 4.5%–5.0% target for a second straight quarter.

Resistance stands at 6.7170 while the nearest support is located at 6.7000.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin traded at $77,814, down 0.44%. It has fallen 23.86% over four weeks and 33.40% over 12 months. Trading Economics models and analyst expectations point to $77,811 by quarter-end and $87,311 in one year.

First resistance is seen at 78,500, with initial support near 75.500.

[Ifx78]

This Monday, the EUR/USD pair is expected to remain under pressure from the US dollar in the short term. The pair ended last week around 1.14860, down nearly 1% over the week. Recent market data indicates an early-day trading range of approximately 1.14550–1.14920. The primary pressure stems from the divergence in monetary policy between the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank (ECB). The Fed raised interest rates by 25 basis points to a range of 3.75%–4.00%, while the ECB’s deposit rate stands at 2.50% following a 25-basis-point hike. The interest rate differential continues to favor the US dollar, acting as a headwind for the EUR/USD pair.

[ZforexCM]

Rising Treasury Yields Pressure Markets (09.25.2026)

A renewed increase in US Treasury yields is strengthening the dollar and tightening financial conditions on September 25. Markets are pricing nearly a 69% probability of another Federal Reserve rate hike in October after several policymakers signaled that further tightening may be needed to bring inflation back toward target. The 10-year Treasury yield has moved above 5%, increasing pressure on rate-sensitive assets.

Energy markets remain highly sensitive to US-Iran negotiations. Tehran has previously offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if Washington reduces military pressure and lifts its blockade on Iranian ports. Reports of a possible phased agreement are providing some relief, although the region’s oil transport system remains costly and fragile.

Risk appetite remains restrained, with Bitcoin near $84,000 and the US 100 Tech Index holding around 30,500. Meanwhile, the Trump-Xi summit produced only a short extension of the trade truce, leaving major issues around tariffs, technology restrictions and rare-earth supplies unresolved.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
All Day	KRW	South Korea – Chuseok – Thanksgiving Day (Holiday)
All Day	CNY	China – Mid – Autumn Festival (Holiday)
12:30	USD	Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (Aug)	-0.3%	1.1%

Euro Drops Near 1.1375

The euro drifted lower on Friday as investors braced for additional Federal Reserve interest rate increases alongside ongoing geopolitical friction in the Middle East. Early Asian trading saw EUR/USD slip toward 1.1375 as market pricing reflected a 67.5% chance of an October Fed rate hike.

Tensions remained high following public statements from Iran’s leadership demanding that the United States commit to ending the conflict.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1400 while the support starts from 1.1350.

Gold is Heading for Weekly Loss

Gold traded near $4,270 per ounce on Friday, putting the precious metal on track for a weekly drop of over 2%. Higher Treasury yields and a rising US dollar continued to weigh on prices as investors braced for potential Federal Reserve rate hikes to manage inflation.

US 10-year and 30-year yields surged to multi-decade highs on Thursday, while the dollar reached its highest point in nearly two months.

First resistance is seen at $4320, with initial support near $4240.

Yen Near Two-Week Lows

The Japanese yen hovered near 158.5 against the US dollar on Friday, remaining close to two-week lows and approaching the critical 160 threshold. Higher Treasury yields and a rising dollar continue to weigh on the currency alongside views that the Bank of Japan’s recent rate hike lacked hawkish intensity.

However, former BOJ board member Makoto Sakurai noted the central bank might hike rates quarterly, potentially hitting 2% by mid-next year to address persistent inflation.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 157.70.

Pound Hits Three-Month Low

The British pound extended its decline toward $1.32, marking its lowest point in three months as market participants weighed contrasting comments from Bank of England officials.

A rising US dollar and elevated oil prices added further pressure to sterling. BoE Deputy Governor Clare Lombardelli signaled that persistent energy costs could justify rate increases, while MPC member Swati Dhingra offered a more dovish perspective, noting that inflation expectations have not yet become a major issue.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3270, with support around 1.3170.

Silver Set for Weekly Drop

Silver hovered below $64 per ounce on Friday, headed for a weekly loss of roughly 4%. A stronger US dollar and surging Treasury yields, led by strong economic data and high energy costs, continue to weigh on prices.

Yields on 10-year and 30-year US Treasuries hit multi-decade highs on Thursday, with markets pricing in a 67% chance of an October Federal Reserve rate hike. Meanwhile, oil prices pulled back following reports of potential US-Iran talks to ease regional shipping blockades.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $64.50, while support is located around $63,00.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent crude fell below $106 per barrel on Friday, snapping a two-day rally as reports indicated potential progress between the US and Iran on a phased deal. Mediated by Qatar on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly, the proposed agreement aims to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and lift the US blockade on Iranian ports.

However, Tehran maintains that any accord requires a reduction in US military pressure alongside the blockade’s removal while keeping control over the waterway.

Resistance is seen at 100.50, while the nearest support stands at 96.00.

​Nasdaq 100

The US 100 Tech Index traded at 30,493 on Friday, September 25, edging up 9 points, or 0.03%, from the prior session. The index has climbed 4.34% over the past month and is up 24.44% over the last year.

Forward-looking macroeconomic models and analyst projections place the index near 29,007 by the end of the quarter and around 27,176 over the next 12 months. Immediate resistance sits at 30,700, with support nearby at 30,200.

Resistance stands at 30,700, while the nearest support is located at 30,200.

Offshore Chinese Yuan

The offshore yuan slipped toward 6.71 per dollar on Friday, heading for a weekly drop as investors evaluated results from the Trump-Xi summit in Washington. Artificial intelligence emerged as a central theme during Thursday’s White House discussions, with both leaders focusing on managing competitive dynamics across the expanding tech sector.

Resistance stands at 6.7250 while the nearest support is located at 6.7050

Bitcoin

Bitcoin traded around $84,105 on Friday, September 25, dropping 0.32% or 271 points from the previous session. The cryptocurrency has dropped 6.45% over the past month and 23.35% over the past year. Looking ahead, macro models and analyst forecasts project Bitcoin near $81,990 by quarter-end and $92,219 over the coming year.

Initial resistance sits near 85,500, with support around 83,000.

[Ifx78]

EUR/USD leans bearish, yet factors exist that could trigger a rebound. Eurozone inflation has surged, fueling expectations that the ECB will return to a hawkish stance, while softer US PCE data has dampened expectations for a Federal Reserve rate hike. According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a Fed rate hike in October has dropped from approximately 70% to 37%. Nevertheless, the US dollar has not entirely lost its strength; the DXY remains around the 101 level, and US Treasury yields continue to provide support for the currency.

[ZforexCM]

Strong Dollar Continues to Weigh on Markets (10.02.2026)

A stronger dollar and elevated Treasury yields kept pressure on major currencies and precious metals as markets awaited the latest US employment data.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
All Day	CNH	China - National Day
09:00	EUR	CPI (YoY) (September)	3.7%	3.2%
09:00	EUR	Core CPI (YoY) (September)	2.5%	2.4%
09:00	EUR	CPI (MoM) (September)		0.4%
12:30	USD	Nonfarm Payrolls (September)	89K	162K
12:30	USD	Unemployment Rate (September)	4.1%	4.1%

EURUSD

The euro fell below $1.13 to hit its lowest level since May 2025, following a September slide of over 2%, its sharpest monthly drop in 14 months. Broad dollar strength and expectations that the European Central Bank will lag the Federal Reserve’s tightening pace weighed heavily.

Meanwhile, ECB Executive Board member Isabel Schnabel signaled caution regarding energy shocks, while a subdued economic growth outlook continues to restrain aggressive rate increases.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1270 while the support starts from 1.1220.

JAPANESE YEN

The yen firmed slightly below 158 per dollar on Friday as Tokyo’s core inflation rate accelerated to 2.7% in September, surpassing the Bank of Japan’s 2% target for the first time in nine months.

However, gains remained limited after a less hawkish summary from the BOJ’s September meeting offered little clarity on future rate hikes. With Federal Reserve tightening continuing to outpace BOJ policy normalization, the yen stayed on track for its third consecutive weekly loss.

First resistance is seen at 159.50, with initial support near 155.00.

BRITISH POUND

Sterling weakened to around $1.32 near three-month lows at the start of October, following a 2% September drop as elevated oil prices heightened inflation concerns, raised bond yields, and dampened economic growth prospects.

Markets now price in four Bank of England rate hikes by July 2027, beginning in November, supported by Governor Andrew Bailey’s signals of openness to further monetary tightening.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

OFFSHORE CHINESE YUAN

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.71 per dollar as rising US Treasury yields supported the dollar, with higher oil prices adding to inflation concerns.

Beijing’s latest stimulus package, including mortgage subsidies and expanded central bank funding, also failed to provide much support despite marking China’s biggest easing push since September 2024.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.

GOLD

Gold slipped to around $4,190 an ounce on Friday, heading for a second consecutive weekly loss as rising crude oil prices driven by US-Iran geopolitical tension heightened inflation fears.

A firmer US dollar and elevated Treasury yields added further pressure ahead of the upcoming September non-farm payrolls release, while Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari noted uncertainty over how high interest rates must go.

First resistance is seen at $4230, with initial support near $4140.

SILVER

Silver hovered around $61.4 per ounce on Friday, bound for another weekly decline as rising crude oil prices sparked US-Iran escalation fears and renewed inflation worries.

A firmer dollar and elevated Treasury yields further pressured the metal ahead of the upcoming US non-farm payrolls data.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.00, while support is located around $60.00.

BRENT OIL

Brent climbed above $102 for a second day as possible US military reinforcements raised concerns over a wider conflict with Iran and fresh supply disruptions.

Reports that Trump could restart strikes after the midterms added to uncertainty. Although regional exports have largely recovered, at least three tankers were attacked this week, while Iran and the Houthis have also targeted refineries.

Resistance is seen at 108.90, while the nearest support stands at 102.00.

NASDAQ 100

The US 100 Tech Index rose 0.31% to 30,617, bringing its four-week gain to 3.85% and its 12-month advance to 23.53%.

Trading Economics projects the index at 29,947 by quarter-end and 28,048 in 12 months.

Resistance stands at 31.100, while the nearest support is located at 30,200.

BITCOIN

Bitcoin edged 0.08% higher to $84,914, taking its four-week gain to 4.49%, though it remains 30.56% lower over the past year.

Trading Economics projects Bitcoin at $84,180 by quarter-end and $95,059 in 12 months.

Initial resistance sits near 87,400, with support around 84,500.

[TrapTheMarket]

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The USDJPY market operation on the monthly time frame printed a long-tailed bearish candlestick in September. Technically, the market operation is in consolidation. The bearish candlestick failed to close below the bullish candlestick printed in August.

The USDJPY market operation on the weekly time frame printed a doji-like candlestick last week. This is the second time in a row. Technically, the market operation is making a bullish correction of the bearish drive that broke down the 153.940 horizontal support. Presently, the market operation is tackling the 157.750 horizontal resistance.

The USDJPY price action on the daily time frame is sideways at the 157.750 area. Recent technical prints show that price action is making a bullish correction of the bearish breakdown of the 157.750 area. We cannot rule out further northward price action in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[TrapTheMarket]

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The EURUSD market operation on the monthly time frame is in a bearish mode. In September, the market operation printed a bearish candlestick which broke down an area of consolidation that was in place for two months. However, the market operation is presently tackling the 1.13040 horizontal support area, an area which is some pips above the 61.8 fib-retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021.

The EURUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is bearish. Last week, the market operation printed a bearish continuation candlestick that broke down the 1.13040 horizontal support area, an area which is about 80 pips above the 61.8 fib-retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021.

The EURUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways below the 1.13040 area. The area was flipped on Thursday as resistance after its bearish breakdown. But on Friday, there was a bullish challenge of the bearish momentum, and this resulted in the printing of a doji-like candlestick near the 61.8 fib-retracement of the bearish swing traceable to May 2021. Technically, we may still see further northward price action before a bearish turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

Trap

[TrapTheMarket]

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The GBPUSD market operation on the monthly time frame printed a bearish candlestick in September. However, technically, the market operation is still consolidating as the bearish print of September did not break down the area of consolidation that has been in place for several months.

The GBPUSD market operation on the weekly time frame is in consolidation. Last week, the market operation printed a doji-like candlestick after the bearish retest of the 1.32020 horizontal support area two weeks ago. The area has remained the lower boundary of the 1.35870/1.32020 horizontal channel for several weeks.

The GBPUSD price action on the daily time frame is sideways at the 1.32020 area. The area was flipped on Thursday as resistance after its bearish breakdown. But on Friday, there was a bullish challenge of the bearish momentum, and this resulted in the printing of a moderate bullish candlestick just above the area. Nevertheless, the bullish candlestick of Friday closed just above the mid of the bearish print of Thursday. Technically, we may still see further northward price action before a bearish turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

KP

[Ifx78]

Factors weighing on the EUR: The US dollar remains strong due to high US bond yields and market anticipation regarding Federal Reserve policy. The EUR/USD pair has trended downward for about four weeks, posting consecutive losses. France’s fiscal issues are also in the spotlight; the spread between French and German bond yields has widened sharply, reflecting market concerns over France’s fiscal situation. However, recent US economic data has actually begun to weaken—NFP came in at just +29k, far below the expected 90k. A sharp drop in expectations for a Fed rate hike in October provides support for the Euro; this should reduce the USD’s appeal and open the door for a EUR/USD rebound.

[ZforexCM]

Safe-Haven Demand Keeps Dollar Firm (10.05.2026)

US equity futures extended Friday’s gains as weak jobs data reduced expectations for further Fed hikes. Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.3%, while Dow and S&P 500 contracts added 0.1%, with ISM services, Fed minutes and earnings from PepsiCo and Delta next in focus.

Treasury yields eased but stayed near two-decade highs, with the 10-year around 5.25% and 30-year near 5.6%. September payrolls rose just 29K, unemployment reached 4.2% and wage growth slowed, though energy-driven inflation, fiscal concerns and AI-related borrowing kept yields high.

The dollar index held near 102, close to its strongest since April 2025. Fading Fed hike bets limited gains, while euro weakness linked to French fiscal and political concerns provided support.

Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped more than 2% toward 70,000, reaching a three-month high as softer US jobs data lifted technology and AI shares. Advantest, SoftBank Group and Tokyo Electron gained over 3%, though high bond yields and Middle East risks kept caution in place.

Economic Calendar

Time	Cur.	Event	Forecast	Previous
All Day	CNH	China - National Day	-	-
13:45	USD	S&P Global Services PMI (Sep)	58.7	56.5
14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing Prices (Sep)	-	72.6
14:00	USD	ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Sep)	55.7	55.4

Euro Weakens as Safe-Haven Demand Lifts Dollar

EUR/USD dropped 0.71% to 1.1174 early Monday as safe-haven demand lifts the US dollar. Elevated Treasury yields, Middle East conflict risks, and fiscal uncertainty in France weighed on the euro. Although softer September US jobs figures lowered Federal Reserve rate-hike odds, hawkish official rhetoric sustained dollar strength as markets turn to the US ISM Services PMI.

The first resistance is positioned at 1.1260 while the support starts from 1.1150.

Gold Stabilizes Near $4,150

Gold hovered around $4,150 an ounce on Monday, recovering from earlier losses after soft US labor market data dampened Federal Reserve rate-hike expectations. September non-farm payrolls increased by only 29K, while unemployment rose to 4.2% and wage growth slowed. Although multi-decade high Treasury yields capped upside momentum, escalating Yemen-related Middle East tensions provided safe-haven support.

First resistance is seen at $4180, with initial support near $4120.

Yen Trades in Narrow Range Near 157.8

The Japanese yen hovered near 157.8 per dollar on Monday, extending a two-week range-bound pattern as investors awaited key domestic data, including wage growth, household spending, and consumer sentiment. While the Bank of Japan’s September summary signaled potential further tightening this year without explicit timing, broad dollar strength and high Treasury yields kept the currency subdued.

First resistance is seen at 158.50, with initial support near 155.80.

Sterling Weakens but Holds Above $1.32

Sterling weakened on Monday but held above $1.32 as broad US dollar firmness counteracted soft US labor data. Downside stayed contained as markets continue pricing roughly 30 basis points of Bank of England tightening by year-end amid energy-led inflation risks. Meanwhile, political support from Prime Minister Andy Burnham for closer UK-EU ties offered additional underlying sentiment.

From a technical view, resistance stands near 1.3340, with support around 1.3140.

Silver Rebounds Above $61

Silver climbed above $61 per ounce on Monday, recovering from earlier losses as weak US employment figures reduced Federal Reserve rate-hike prospects. September non-farm payrolls added only 29K jobs, while unemployment ticked up to 4.2% and wage growth moderated. Although elevated Treasury yields limited further upside, escalating Yemen-related Middle East conflicts sustained safe-haven demand.

From a technical view, resistance stands near $62.50, while support is located around $60.00.

Brent Crude Oil

Brent fell below $101.30 as Saudi-backed forces launched a major operation against the Houthis, who seized the Bab el-Mandeb chokepoint used for Saudi oil exports.

OPEC+ kept production quotas unchanged, while G7 countries released emergency reserves in response to supply disruptions.

Resistance is seen at 102.90, while the nearest support stands at 100.00.

Nasdaq 100

The Nasdaq-100 traded near 30,808 after gaining 1% in its latest session, with futures adding around 0.3%.

Weak payrolls and slower wage growth strengthened expectations for a Fed pause, supporting tech stocks, while strong chipmaker performance helped offset high Treasury yields. Moderna will replace Warner Bros. Discovery in the index on Friday.

Resistance stands at 31.300, while the nearest support is located at 30,700.

Bitcoin (BTC/USD)

Bitcoin traded near $86,400, consolidating below its recent intraday high after entering October with positive momentum following a rare September gain.

Still, high Treasury yields and cooling ETF inflows kept the advance in check before the Fed’s next policy decision.

Initial resistance sits near 88,400, with support around 84,500.

Offshore Chinese Yuan

The offshore yuan weakened toward 6.71 per dollar, reversing last week’s gains as dollar strength spilled across currencies.

Traders also assessed Beijing’s latest stimulus measures, including mortgage subsidies and expanded central bank funding, during subdued National Day holiday trading.

The first resistance stands at 6.7210, while support begins at 6.6940.