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KP
[B]AUDUSD Technical Update[/B]
The AUDUSD is pushing upwards towards an interesting S/R area, land marked by 0.7446 and 0.7505. A rejection of the zone southwards is likely to produce a turnaround for south bound trading; otherwise an upward break of the zone with H4 candlestick close above 0.7505 is likely to produce further interest among buyers.
[B]I may be wrong.[/B]
Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
After a period of ambivalence in March, the pair has maintained a northward disposition since April. On the monthly time frame, price action has moved upward beyond the area of consolidation created between December 2016 and April 2017. A possible target of such upward move is the immediate resistance around the 1.14580 area.
On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (navy coloured lines) for quite a while. In April, price action moved from the support line and followed through with an increase in momentum towards the resistance, energized by the factor of the French presidential elections. After a period of consolidation in the latter part of April, price action broke the resistance line of the channel with an increased momentum. An ascending trendline (chocolate coloured line) has emerged but yet to be validated as the price action took the price further above it. There is likely to be a retest of the channel and/or a validation of the trendline before confidence in a bullish continuation can be had; particularly so as recent price action has just pierced through a horizontal resistance zone around 1.11160. Should a follow-through of the bullish move happen this week, a likely target will be the region of 1.14580 noted earlier on the monthly time frame. This area has not been visited in 2017 and may be attractive to big players on long trades.
On the H4 time frame, buyers pushed price upward for the most part of last week and price broke above the channel resistance last week Tuesday. However, shortly after, the momentum slowed and on Thursday sellers tangled for a retracement before a further upward push. In the last two sessions on Friday, the upward momentum slowed down. Should sellers exert further pressure, price may retest the channel at an area that adjoins the 50/32.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the low of May 12, bounded by saddlebrown horizontal lines in the attached H4 chart. Otherwise, an upward continuation is likely to target the 1.14580 area.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly if price breaks above the 1.14580 area; southward, should price bounce back from the 1.14580 area.
Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement to around 1.11160 (or the 32.8 Fib zone).
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been disposed northward for a while but momentum has waned. On the weekly time frame, last week the pair moved from an area of consolidation where price action operated in the previous two weeks. Buyers took control of price action and pushed the pair into the immediate resistance zone where buyers’ further attempt to push price beyond the zone was resisted by sellers.
On the daily time frame, price action rejected an outer ascending trendline (in chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (in navy colour). However, the order flow context, with an increae in the relative size of bearish candles, indicate that the buyers are not fully in control. The pullback of price action following the French presidential elections showed a strong bearish influence, and since then the bullish candles have not been particularly dominant in size. There may be a period of consolodiation in the offing, perhaps before another retracement; particularly as price action has reached a zone that has served as a support zone on a number of times in the past and last visited in June 2016. Will the zone experience a role flip, becoming resistance on this visit? If a retracement takes place and price bounces off the ascending trendline (in navy colour), the upward move may be a trigger for further bullish push perhaps with the next resistance zone around the 1.65068 area as target. However, should price action break below the trendline, this may be a beginning of a southward turnaround, and with an initial target being the next support zone around the 1.59197 area. This may expose the monthly pivot around 1.56272.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame shows that buyers and sellers are in battle for control. The momentum for a northward move is waning, indicated by the weak slopes of the MAs I use and the fact that the most recent sessions saw the bears in control. Should this lead to a topping formation, we may expect price action to retest the ascending trendline (in navy colour) around the 1.59470 area, which adjoins the immediate support zone.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly should price action bounce off the H4 trendline (in navy colour) upwards or break above the 1.63047 area; southward, should price action break below the trendline around 1.59470.
Short-term: consolidation around current price location or retracement towards 1.59470.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
[B]Just my 2 cents[/B]
Preserve your capital always and trade patiently; don’t rush into trades, don’t rush your entry - let the market come to your levels.
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been mainly on an upward move since October 2015. On the weekly time frame, after a 32.8 Fib retracement of the swing from the low of October 2015 to the high of October 2016, price action entered a period of consolidation (indicated in the khaki coloured rectangle) and an ascending trendline from the low of October 2015 respected. Price action in the last two weeks saw the bulls in control, indicated by relatively big bullish candlesticks. As the price action last week was near the immediate resistance zone around the 0.87744 area, momentum for further upward move may be limited. However, should price action breach the area to the upside, the immediate target is likely to be around the 0.88550 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is primarily on a northward move. Since May, two upward price waves have been consummated and a third is very much in play. This may consummate upon a further upward move, perhaps to the region of the next resistance around 0.87744, with a pullback to retest the ascending trendline (in magenta colour) or the immediate support around the 0.86720 area.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: northwards, particularly if price action breaks above the 0.93070 area
Short-term: sideways operation/retracement to around the 0.86720 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been primarily on the decline since April 2014. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline (in chocolate colour) from the high of 2014. Price action in the past five weeks was sideways around a significant resistance zone and some pips shy of the 23.6 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of April 2014 to the low of 2017. Any northward move is likely to target the next resistance zone around the 1.33470 area. However, as last week’s candlestick is relatively bearish and bigger than the preceding candlestick – which was bullish – there is a possibility of a further southward move to at least test the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of January 2017, which is acting as the immediate support. A break of the trendline will expose the 1.23434 handle, which was the origin of a rally in April.
On the daily time frame, it is apparent that price action has formed an ascending channel (green colour) since February. Price was sideways around the distal part of the channel for much of last week but sellers pushed price to the proximal channel line with a strong move on Friday. Should the channel break southwards, an immediate target is likely to be the 1.26860 area, the immediate support area. Technically, this is more likely than an upward push to the distal channel line.
On the H4 time frame, the wicky candlesticks formed from Monday to Thursday last week indicated a period of indecision and a flattening formation which paved the way for the strong bearish move on Friday. In general, the order flow context showed sellers in strong control of the market. Nevertheless, although the technicals on the H4 time frame support a further southward move, the momentum has diminished. This may likely result in a pullback, perhaps to at least the 1.28681 area. Such a pullback, however, is likely to be followed by another price wave southwards.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: southwards
Short-term: southwards/pullback upwards to at least the 1.28681 area
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair is on a descending mode. On the weekly time frame, a descending trendline from the high of August 2015 is respected by price action. Four weeks ago, price action paused in an area close to the trendline and was followed by two doji-like candlesticks which indicated a lack of upward commitment. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed on the weekly time frame which further validated the descending trendline and gave credence to the intent of sellers to control the market. A likely target of a further bearish drive is the immediate support around the 1.79557 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved with momentum to respect an inner descending trendline (in magenta colour) and is within a few pips of a minor support zone around 1.805700, which is likely to be breached as a key target is the immediate major support zone around 1.79557 and 1.78535, the beginning of a rally on April 18, 2017. However, price action may offer a pullback before the target is reached, particularly to retest the descending trendline or revert to a mean value, perhaps around the 1.83000 area (the immediate minor resistance area on the H4 time frame). Nothing technically indicates a bullish reversal on the H4 time frame, except if the pullback to consummate the present descending wave fails and the descending trendline is broken to the upside; perhaps, owing to fundamental factors.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: southwards
Short-term: southwards/pullback upwards to at least the 1.83000 area
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tracking the EURUSD, you will do well to wait for a pullback to the immediate resistance around 1.13058 area to go for a sell trade. That area was last visited in November 2016 and a significant flattening formation has taken place there last week. If the pullback to the zone results in a rejection candle on the H1 or H4 time frame, that is likely to signify a southward move towards at least the next support around the 1.11234 area
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in a range for much of 2017. On the weekly time frame, price action moved from the lower part of the range in the second week of May and has pushed northward to the distal area of the range. Price action is now at a key resistance area and any break of the zone to the upside is likely to target the 0.88445 area, which was last visited in mid-January 2017. The nature of the range and of the order flow context is distinct on the daily time frame.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (in magenta colour). However, as the price action is around a resistance zone, a rejection of the zone southward may lead to a retest of the trendline and target the 0.86995 area, the origin of the most recent upward push. This scenario appears much likely to occur as price action has found it difficult to move much farther from the last two recent highs.
Alternative technical biases:
Long-term: Northward, particularly should price action break above 0.88445
Short-term: Southward, with a retracement to the 0.86995 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on the decline for a while. On the weekly time frame, price action retraced to around the 32.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of May 2016 to the low of October 2016. After a sideways operation in that area in April and May, price action made some strong bearish moves, and last week hit an S/R zone around the 1.75320 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action since mid-May produced one descending price wave and then went into a consolidation and ranging pattern for much of late May and early June, apparently in anticipation of the British election. This was followed by a strong bearish drop last week Thursday (British election shockwave), from an area (around 1.79075) which had served as a strong demand zone on April 18, 2017. We should expect price action to retest this zone in the coming days. The most recent price action on the H4 time frame was a bullish move which may be a corrective one as price action has moved too far from the mean value.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been on a decline since the beginning of June. On the weekly time frame, a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed last week after an indecision candlestick formation in the two previous weeks.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken the ascending trendline from the low of April 2016 (magenta coloured line). One descending price wave has been formed which culminated in a consolidation during last Friday sessions; apparently preparatory to further bearish move for a second price wave to the downside. The current location of price action is an area which has served as an S/R zone in the past and adjoins the monthly pivot. I expect the zone to flip its role for further price descent. Should this happen, a natural target of price action is the immediate support around the 1.46886 area. Should price action move otherwise, it may target the minor resistance around the 1.49550 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair continued the decline started at the beginning of June. Three weeks ago, price action moved towards the resistance zone around the 1.52878 area but was pushed back. On the weekly time frame, the previous two weeks witnessed a strong bearish move. Last week the bearish move hit the immediate support zone around the 1.47088 area but could not breach it.
On the daily time frame, price action since beginning of June has been under the control of sellers. The most recent price action on Thursday and Friday of last week tested the immediate support zone around 1.47088 area. Should price action breach the zone southward, the initial target is likely to be 1.45692, a minor barrier which may expose the daily support zone around the 1.44636 area. Failure of price action to breach the 1.47088 area is likely to lead to a period of consolidation in that area or a pullback to the immediate resistance around the 1.48820 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action formed one declining price wave which culminated in a sideway move before a second declining price wave was begun on June 14. This move is still in play but the momentum has stalled; this can be seen from the sideways operation of the most recent price action on the H4 time frame. We may expect a pullback to the northside before the bearish move continues. This pullback may validate the descending trendline (magenta colour) or re-test the minor resistance zone between 1. 48731 and 1.48215.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair continued the decline started at the beginning of June. On the weekly time frame, price action rejected the monthly pivot two weeks ago for a bearish continuation. However, last week, an attempt by sellers to breach the immediate support around the 1.66478 area did not succeed.
On the H4 time frame, sellers attempted to take control of price action through three price waves to the downside since the beginning of June but the ride southwards has not been smooth; there has been a lot of buyers’ resistance resulting in a series of sideway moves, consolidation and range trading. The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
[quote=“TrapTheMarket, post:377, topic:103807, full:true”]
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
…On the H4 time frame, sellers attempted to take control of price action through three price waves to the downside since the beginning of June but the ride southwards has not been smooth; there has been a lot of buyers’ resistance resulting in a series of sideway moves, consolidation and range trading. The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards…[/quote]
The alternative scenario for an upward move before a southward turn happened about 8 hours ago. See attached H4 chart.
Trade safe and prosper.
[quote=“TrapTheMarket, post:378, topic:103807, full:true”]
…The most recent price action last week fell within a 137-pip range (in Khaki coloured rectangle). Should the price action break out of the range southwards, the initial target will be the immediate resistance around 1.66570, which may expose the 1.64804 handle. This is a more likely scenario given the technical bias on the weekly time frame. However, an alternative scenario, albeit temporary in nature, will be for price action to move northwards towards the distal part of the the range; perhaps to retest the 1.68392 area before heading southwards…[/quote]
Here’s an update on the GBPAUD. The pair has rejected the distal area of the range and has moved southwards for over 190 pips.
Trade safe and prosper.
The next level to watch on GBP/AUD is the 1.6610 barrier as the pair continues the selling pressure as well as the technical indicators.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
Price action on this pair has been mainly bearish since August 2015. On the weekly time frame, since August 2015, price action has seen three descending price waves with accompanying pullbacks. The most recent pullback was to around the 23.6 Fib zone of the drop from the high of August 2015, hitting resistance around 1.88392. From that resistance, price action moved southward although the momentum has been limited in the past four weeks. Recent price action breached an inner descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of August 2015 but an outer descending trendline (purple colour) is yet to be validated. Should price action continue southward, the initial target is ikely to be the 1.72350 area, which is likely to expose the 1.68730 handle; this was last visited in early February 2017.
On the daily time frame, price action since May has been dominated by sellers. Price action in the past 12 days has been within an area of consolidation, shown in Khaki coloured rectangle. As price is not near the area of value, we may expect a retracement upward before a further southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has carved out a descending channel or a floating channel (in purple coour). The most recent price action has been sideways near the resistance trendline of the channel but the candlesticks have been relatively small, an indication of market indecision. A break of the channel to the upside is likely to target the 1.75790 area; which may expose the 1.77620 area, the origin of the descending channel. From a technical perspective, a retracement towards at least the 1.75790 area is a more likely scenario given the fact that price is currently further from the mean value area. The alternative scenario is for price action to break below the current area of consolidation around 1.74325 and continue southward to target the 1.71805 area, the origin of the rally upward on March 2, 2017. For this to happen, however, price action will have to contend with the barrier around the 1.7417 area.
In summary, the technical outlook favours sellers in the medium to longer term.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GOLD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has been operating in a ranging price action since February 2017. On the weekly time frame, a clear ascending channel emerged, which peaked around the 1306 area in mid-May. There was a failed attempt by price action to test that area three weeks ago. Last week, a doji-like candlestick with a relatively long tail pushed towards the proximal part of the channel around the 1214 area but retracted. It is likely price action will make another move to hit the lower channel line this week.
On the H4 time frame, price action moved upwards from a support trendline (magenta colour) to validate a resistance trendline from the high of June. The most recent price action saw a bulllsh move on Friday afternoon after a rejection of the resistance trendline by sellers earlier in the day. Should buyers push price action to break the resistance trendline, an initial target northward is likely to be the 1271 area, provided buyers can overcome the immediate minor resistance around the 1261 area. Failure of price action to take out the 1261 area is likely to lead to a southward turnaround to break the support trendline and target the 1240 area, the base of the support trendline. This is a more likely scenario given the weekly technical disposition noted earlier.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper
Just a thought
If you want to trap a market, don’t just jump into a moving market. Study the market and analyse it first. Jumping into a market you were not prepared for or had not analysed, just because of a sudden price movement, could be dangerous. What do you think?
Trade safe and prosper.