EURUSD Top Down Analysis

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-02 20:52:43 UTC #384

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Over the past three months, the pair has been largely northbound. On the weekly time frame, price action operated in an ascending channel (chocolate coloured) for much of 2017. The channel was broken to the upside in May 2017 and, thereafter, price action went primarily sideways for the next five weeks. Last week it moved away from its sideways mode and headed north with a relatively large bullish candlestick, falling shy of 1.16159, the high of May 2016 by about 172 pips. Presently, price action is at a resistance zone. A successful break of resistance is likely to expose the 1.16159 area. This area may be a location from which to consider looking for a sell trading opportunity if price action moves there without retracement. Alternatively, as price action is presently far from a mean value area, it may retrace to the immediate minor support around the 1.12690 area.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline from the low of March 2017. It has made two ascending price waves with accompanying retracements and a third is in play, which started with momentum last week Thursday but yet to pull back. Much likely the bearish move on Friday may be the beginning of the pullback and may validate the trendline between 1.13205 and 1.12690; which is in confluence with the 50/61.8 Fib zone. Should price action retrace and break the support trendline (navy colour) southward, an initial target is likely to be the 1.11162 area; the base of the most recent rally and the beginning of the third ascending price wave.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-02 20:57:53 UTC #385

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been predominantly on the decline since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, during April and May 2017, price action retraced to 32.8 Fib level of the drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of January 2017. Since then it has remained constrained for a southward operation by a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of December 2015. The most recent price action in the past two weeks have been sideways and in a support zone.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been largely in consolidation/sideways mode and in a channel (Khaki coloured rectangle) for the most part of June. Presently, price action is in the middle of the channel, somewhat a noman’s land, but the last sessions on Friday saw the buyers getting more influential in the market. Should buyers take price action to the distal part of the channel, perhaps targeting the 1.69750 area, this is likely to present a good sell trading opportunity. Given the technical disposition on the weekly time frame, a sell trading opportunity is more feasible than a buy trading opportunity. A break of the channel southward is likely to initially target the 1.67224 area; this may expose the 1.66367 area, the base of the April 17, 2017 rally.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-02 21:06:08 UTC #386

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in an ascending channel (shown in forest green coloured trendlines) since May 2016. On the monthly time frame, price action hit the support trendline of the channel with a relatively big bearish candlestick last month. This suggests strong sellers’ intent.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy coloured) from the high of April 2017. Recent price action saw the sellers more influential but the price has moved far from the mean value area.Thus, we should expect a pullback to retest the trendline or the minor resistance zone around the 1.31680 area. This is more likely the case as the most recent price action is around a support zone.

Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 9, 2017. After about 300 pips to the downside from the most recent descending price wave which started on June 27, 2017, we may expect a pullback before further bearish move continues. The 1.31680 area is very much likely be the zone to look for such a pullback and could retest the inner descending trendline (magenta colour).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-02 21:32:00 UTC #387

From a purely technical perspective, an appropriate approach to trading this pair, except for scalpers, is to wait for the pair to make a retracement to test the trendine on the D1 time frame or a retracement into an area of value within the immediate support zone (1.13205 and 1.12690). However, should price action continue its northward move without retracement and reach the 1.16159 area, the high of May 2016, looking for a sell trading opportunity could be considered.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket:

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

Over the past three months, the pair has been largely northbound. On the weekly time frame, price action operated in an ascending channel (chocolate coloured) for much of 2017. The channel was broken to the upside in May 2017 and, thereafter, price action went primarily sideways for the next five weeks. Last week it moved away from its sideways mode and headed north with a relatively large bullish candlestick, falling shy of 1.16159, the high of May 2016 by about 172 pips. Presently, price action is at a resistance zone. A successful break of resistance is likely to expose the 1.16159 area. This area may be a location from which to consider looking for a sell trading opportunity if price action moves there without retracement. Alternatively, as price action is presently far from a mean value area, it may retrace to the immediate minor support around the 1.12690 area.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline from the low of March 2017. It has made two ascending price waves with accompanying retracements and a third is in play, which started with momentum last week Thursday but yet to pull back. Much likely the bearish move on Friday may be the beginning of the pullback and may validate the trendline between 1.13205 and 1.12690; which is in confluence with the 50/61.8 Fib zone. Should price action retrace and break the support trendline (navy colour) southward, an initial target is likely to be the 1.11162 area; the base of the most recent rally and the beginning of the third ascending price wave.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-02 21:40:15 UTC #388

From a purely technical perspective, it will be far rewarding to wait for price action to retrace to the distal part of the channel on the H4 time frame before taking a sell trade. However, should present price action move to the proximal part of the channel and break out of it, waiting for a retest of the support line now turned resistance before looking for a sell trade should be the way to go.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket:

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been predominantly on the decline since December 2015. On the weekly time frame, during April and May 2017, price action retraced to 32.8 Fib level of the drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of January 2017. Since then it has remained constrained for a southward operation by a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of December 2015. The most recent price action in the past two weeks have been sideways and in a support zone.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been largely in consolidation/sideways mode and in a channel (Khaki coloured rectangle) for the most part of June. Presently, price action is in the middle of the channel, somewhat a noman’s land, but the last sessions on Friday saw the buyers getting more influential in the market. Should buyers take price action to the distal part of the channel, perhaps targeting the 1.69750 area, this is likely to present a good sell trading opportunity. Given the technical disposition on the weekly time frame, a sell trading opportunity is more feasible than a buy trading opportunity. A break of the channel southward is likely to initially target the 1.67224 area; this may expose the 1.66367 area, the base of the April 17, 2017 rally.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-05 08:14:19 UTC #389

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Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-05 19:52:06 UTC #390

The EURUSD is in a consolidation mode, but the technical disposition overall is southwards. However, price action is at the distal part of the range. If the current move up sees price action retesting the immediate resistance at the 1.1480 area, it may expose the 1.1650 handle.

Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-09 20:51:16 UTC #391

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

Price action on this pair has been on the upside since May. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of December 2015. Price action has just moved beyond the monthly pivot and then consolidated for over four weeks. This is near a resistance zone around 0.88495. Should price action breach the zone to the upside, a likely target is the 0.90060 area. This area was marked by a consolidation pattern when price action was last there between October and November 2016 before a big drop. This portends that should price action get there again, the area may likely see a turn around in price action. Thus, should price action get to that level, a sell trading opportunity that presents itself is likely to be feasible.

On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in a horizontal channel or range (bound by magenta-coloured horizontal lines) for much of June and it is presently at the distal part of the range. Although the last sessions on Friday led to a bearish candlestick, the order flow was under the control of buyers. If buyers are able to move price higher in the channel it may target around 0.88750, an overshot area in the channel. This may be followed by a pullback towards a mean value area before any further momentum to the upside can be expected. However, should price action fail to breach the channel to the upside, a southward move to retest support can be expected with an initial target being around the 0.87935 area; which is the origin of the most recent rally.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-09 21:06:37 UTC #392

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

As noted last week, over the past three months, the pair has been largely northbound. However, generally, over the the past two years the price action has been within a horizontal channel or range (Khaki colour). On the weekly time frame, during May and June this year, price action went primarily sideways for five weeks. Two weeks ago, it moved away from its sideways mode and headed north with a relatively large bullish candlestick, falling shy of 1.16159, the high of May 2016 by about 172 pips. Last week, an attempt to move price beyond the previous week’s high failed and the ultimate price action resulted in a hammer-like candlestick on the weekly time frame at an area adjoining the monthly pivot. This is a bullish signal but the momentum is weak.

On the daily time frame, the most recent price action was within a significant S/R zone which it could not breach. Price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 6, 2017 and we may expect a pullback to the trendline, perhaps around the 1.13280 area, before any further upward move. A successful break of the zone is likely to target the next resistance around the 1.16100 area. However, should price break the trendline southward, a likely target is the immediate support around the 1.12270 area. Such a move would be likely corrective in nature.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines). Most recent price action has moved upwards and distally, respecting an inner ascending/support trendline with buyers very much in control of the most recent sessions. This move may break the range northward and target the immediate major resistance around the 1.16100 area. A retracement to test the trendline may take place before further northward move gets an increased momentum.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-09 21:24:57 UTC #393

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been northbound since January. On the weekly time frame, after the bullish move between January and April, price action was sideways for most of May and June. Two weeks ago, a big bullish candlestick formed, which was shy of the immediate resistance zone around 130.270 by about 160 pips. A bullish candlestic formed last week as a follow-up and hit the resistance zone but could not breach it to the upside. Should price action breach the zone, it will have to contend with a barrier around 131.100/131.133 before it gets to a natural target of the immediate minor resistance around the 132.120 area.

On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending channel (navy blue) formed by the support trendline from the low of April and the high of May. The most recent price action has moved distally towards the resistance trendline with a fair amount of momentum behind it and is around the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. As noted earlier, this move is likely to contend with a barrier around 131.100/131.133 before it gets to a natural target of the immediate minor resistance around the 132.120 area. By that time, price may be too far from the mean value area and a pullback to retest the support trendline may be initiated. However, should price action fail to pullback, the target is likely to be the major resistance zone around the 133.850 area, whch could offer a good opportunity for sellers to move price action southwards. That area will represent 76.4 Fib of the drop from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016 and could be seen as a technically natural area of overbought or extension, which is amenable to a turnaround of price action.

On the H4 time frame, price action has moved upwards from a major support trendline (navy colour), and within the ascending channel seen on the daily time frame, to respect an inner support/ascending trendline (magenta colour). The order flow context favours buyers. A flag pattern has formed (bound in saddle brown-coloured lines) which portends a bullish continuation, particularly should price action break out of the flag distally. Nevertheless, a retest of the inner trendline (magenta colour) is still possible; this may extend to target the immediate horizontal support around the 127.200 area, near the base of the origin of the flag.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-11 18:17:30 UTC #394

Here's an update on the EURUSD in the attached H4 chart.

As predicted on Sunday, price retraced and retested the trendline before it headed northwards.

Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-11 18:37:39 UTC #395

Here's an update on EURGBP as on the attached H4 tme frame.

As predicted on Sunday, buyers have taken the price beyond the channel and headed northward. How far can it go before a turnaround southwards? I will be watching the 0.90060 area.

Trade safe and prosper.

penny128 2017-07-11 20:54:55 UTC #396

Currently on its way to 1.15 unfortunately I closed out my position at 1.134 which I thought was the right decision....

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-11 22:03:21 UTC #397

I can understand how you feel. But you have made the right decision. I swing trade based on my weekly technical analysis which I do ahead of each week on Sundays.

Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-16 20:22:06 UTC #398

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been largely north-bound for a relatively long period of time, although price action on a multi-year level has been within a defined range. Recent price action is at the distal part of the range. On the weekly time frame, the hammer-like candlestick formed two weeks ago was followed up by a bullish candlestick last week but the move lacked significant momentum as it was hindered by sellers who, towards the end of the session, pushed price southwards.

On the daily time frame, price action has moved northward of a major support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 6, 2017 and it is respecting an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of June 23. However, for the most part of last week, daily price action has been in a consolidating mode. The most recent price action is at a distal part of the consolidation pattern and we may have another round of consolidation with a southward move towards the 1.13720 area, and even an extended pullback to the major support trendline (navy colour) before any further upward move. A successful break of the consolidation pattern upward is likely to meet resistance around the 1.15830 area. However, should price break the major support trendline (navy colour) southward, a likely target is the immediate support around the 1.12780 area. Such a move would be likely corrective in nature.

On the H4 time frame, price action has broken out distally from the channel (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines) it formed a few weeks ago. However, we may expect another move southward to test the proximal part of the channel before momentum for a bullish operation can be assured. Alternatiely, we may see price action move upward within a floating ascending channel (bound in chocolate coloured lines) formed by the support trendline from the low of June 23 and a resistance trendline from the high of July 7. This could happen if the hammer-like candlestick formed a session before the last H4 session on Friday is respected by price action. However, such a move is likely to be limited as the technicals are not in sync for a bullish momentum yet. A more sustainable operation is likely to be a short northward move followed by a southward turn-around to retest the support line of the horizontal channel (lower magenta-coloured line) around the 1.13290 area. This is likely to be medium-term in nature.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-16 21:33:04 UTC #399

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been in a consolidating mode since November 2016. Between November 2016 and March 2017 price action consolidated between 1.19890 and 1.26650. It then moved upwards for another phase of consolidation between 1.26650 and 1.30720.

On the weekly time frame, two ascending trendlines (navy coloured lines) from the low of January 2017 are serving as significant support lines for price action. The inner trendline clearly forms an ascending channel with the high of April 2017. Recent price action is within the channel and the bullish candlestick formed last week was towards the distal part of the channel. Further move of price action upward will have to contend with the distal channel line as well as the immediate resistance which is in the 1.32840 area. Should price action break out of the channel northward, a likely target will be the 1.35050 handle. This has held as a significant resistance since August 2016. Failure to break out of the channel is likely to see price action retest the support channel line.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating distally in a clear ascending channel and the order flow context is strongly in favour of buyers. Furthermore, the technicals are in sync for further northward move. A likely target for such a move is the 1.32840 area, which is the origin of a big drop for the selling that began in September 2016.

On the H4 time frame, recent price action is parabolic in nature and is susceptible to retracement to an area of value. A likely area to watch will be the 30/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high. This is shown in the khaki coloured rectangle, between 1.29143 and 1.30196.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-16 21:40:28 UTC #400

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued to be on the decline since three months ago. On the monthly time frame, it is apparent that price action is heading towards the zone, highlighed by 1.24668, that formed the origin of a rally upward in July 2014. That zone was last visited in May 2016 and consummated in a bulish operation but is now within the grasps of sellers, just about 175 pips southward of recent price action. This is also a support/proximal zone of the consolidating pattern which began in July 2014.

On the weeky time frame,since May 2017, price action has been under the control of sellers. Presently, price action is within an S/R area and may target 1.22310. The technicals on the weekly time frame seem to support further southward move before any bullish operation can be expected, moreso as a consolidation pattern has formed between the 1.22310 area and the 1.37050 area.

On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting an inner descending trendline (magenta colour) from June 2017 after moving below an outer descending trendline (navy colour). The most recent price action was a strong bearish move after a period of consolidation. Sellers may be able to sell further southward before buyers are attracted. Thus, a retracement may not be immediate. Any retracement, however, is likely to be in an area of value, much likely leading to a retest of the inner descending trendline.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-23 21:01:17 UTC #401

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been operating in a multi-year consolidation pattern or range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines) for a long while. On the weekly time frame, five price waves have formed within the range, beginning from March 15, 2015. The most recent price wave hit the distal part of the range last week but could not breach it. Since the major trend is disposed southward, much likely the follow-up action price may turn southward; although we may see a slight upward move of about 30-50 pips before this turnaround.

On the daily time frame, price action has moved northward respecting an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 2017. A much likely follow-up price action is a retest of the trendline at an area of value, much likely at the most recent horizontal support zone; this is around the 1.14520 area. We may see a brief period of consolidation or a slight upward move of about 30-50 pips before this.

On the H4 time frame, price action has moved away from the outer ascending trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame to respect an inner ascending trendline (magenta coour). The last H4 session on Friday resulted in a bearish pinbar or shooting star. If this is followed through by price action this week, we should expect a southward turnaround, perhaps to test the trendline. Should the trendline be broken southward, this may target the outer/lower trendline (navy colour), perhaps around the 1.14520 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-23 21:09:03 UTC #402

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has been on a decline since May 2017. The monthly time frame shows strong technical support for further bearish operation.

On the daily time frame, the order flow context is in favour of sellers and an outer resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of April 2017 is still in tact. Price action has moved further downward to respect an inner resistance trendline (navy colour) from the the high of April 2017 but the most recent price action has entered a significant support zone around the 1.62310 area.

On the H4 time frame, although sellers were favored for a long period, buyers have stepped up their struggle. The most recent price action on Friday saw buyers pressing sellers to constrain their move southward resulting in indecision candlesticks that indicate a likely retracement upward. Should buyers be successful in their push, a likely area price action may target is immediate minor resistance between 1.64518 and 1.65364 range (bound by two magenta-coloured horizontal lines).

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

TrapTheMarket 2017-07-23 21:15:31 UTC #403

USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

The pair has continued on the decline started three months ago. On the wekly time frame, the order flow is under the control of sellers. However, price action is now entering a significant support zone which was last visited in April 2016. Thus, we may expect some hesitating or sideways movement of price action around the 1.24668 area.

On the H4 time frame, the candlesticks are increasingly getting smaller in size and mixed in nature. This suggests a weakness in southward momentum. Much likely there wil be a retracement to an area of value before any significant push southward can materialize. A natural area price action may retrace to is the immediate minor resistance around the 1.27140 area.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.