After a drop from the high of December 2015 to the low of September 2016 and its 38.2 Fib retracement, which happened in April 2017, the pair has been on a southward move on the monthly time frame since May 2017.
On the weekly time frame, the pair is respecting a resistance trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the high of January 2016. An inner resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of May 2017 has developed, which indicates an increased southward momentum. Two weeks ago, a relatively strong bearish candlestick formed, which rejected the monthly central pivot southward and pierced a strong support zone around the 1.62300 area. However, last week’s candlestick was ambivalent in nature as sellers were only able to take the price just about 130 pips southward before they met resistance from buyers. This candlestick appeared to be a follow through of the bearish pinbar formed three weeks ago. Should sellers maintain control of the order flow, a likely target is the 1.59760 area. Current price action is just about 130 pips shy of the immediate support zone around the 1.59510 area. Should sellers manage to push price southward, that area is likely to be a natural target. This may extend to the 1.57780 area in the next few days. That area marked the low of 2016 and has been so for many years since the low of August 2013. However, should buyers manage to wrestle control of price action, we may see a retest of the immediate support around the 1.62720 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 8, 2016. However, the last sessions on Friday saw buyers taking charge of price action and we may see a retracement northward, possibly to the 30/50 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of August 3, 2017 to last Friday’s low (bound by the two magenta coloured horizontal lines), between 1.62302 and 1.63370.
The pair has been on the downside for some time. However, on the weekly time frame, buyers strongly intervened to push price higher four weeks ago. Nevertheless, lack of follow-through three weeks ago opened an opportunity for bearish price action a week later, resulting in a rejection pinbar around a significant S/R zone breaching the monthly central pivot southward. The immediate barrier is a support trendline (black colour) from the low of September 2012; this is in an area of the confluence of a significant moving average and a major support zone. This area has been tested a couple of times in the past five weeks but not yet broken. Any break of this zone southward, which is between 1.25752 and 1.23910, is likely to give impetus to further bearish momentum. This may first expose the 1.21567/1.21514 area before targeting the 1.19010 handle. However, getting that far is not likely to materialize in the next 2-3 weeks.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour) from the high of June 9, 2017. Although all technicals point to a bearish continuation, the last session on Friday saw the buyers influential. As price action is in an area of strong support, we may see some sideways operation for the early part of this week; any movement either upward or downward may be limited. It may be advisable to step aside for clarity in price action.
I am still bearish technically on the USDCAD. Nothing had occurred that was of interest. However, a confluence area on the H4 time frame could be of interest for a short-term swing trading southward if price action gets there. The area is between 1.25794 and 1.26199 (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines).
Short-term swing traders who are tracking the GBPCAD may be interested in the alignment of resistance trendlines on the H4, D1 and W1 time frames; respectively shown in magenta, navy and chocolate colours in the attached H4 chart. As long as the H4 and D1 trendlines hold, southward swing trading should be attractive.
Gold has been on an upward mode since December 2015. In December 2016, the XAUUSD pair witnessed a 76.8 Fib retracement of this move following a drop from the high of July 2016. Since then, the pair has been on the northward mode and an ascending trendline on the monthly time frame (forest green colour) is still in play. However, current price action is in the vicinity of a significant resistance zone on the monthly time frame and we may see some sideways operation or pullback as price action moves further up.
On the weekly time frame, the order flow has been strongly under the control of buyers since July 2017. Last week, a strong bullish candlestick showed the intent of buyers to follow through the bullish rejection candlesticks formed in the previous three weeks. The technicals on the weekly time frame favour further northward move, which may target the immediate resistance around the 1338.20 area; this area was last visited in November 2016 and marked the origin of a strong bearish move to the low of December 2016. Note that a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) is operating from the high of August 2011 and may have to be decisively breached northward for this to materialize. Should this happen, this is likely to expose the 1375.40 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action, which has been operating in an ascending channel (bound by magenta coloured lines) for much of July and August, recently moved distally and broke the upper channel line. It is now respecting a support trendline (navy colour) and operating above the monthy central pivot. In view of the bigger picture on the monthly time frame where buyers are dominant and the weekly time frame where the order flow is under the control of buyers, this move is indicative of an increase in momentum for further northward move. Thus, we may see further upward move, perhaps to the 1330.0 area, before any pullback occurs.
On this pair, the last three weeks have produced three bearish pinbars; which suggests that we can have confidence in a bearish continuation. Price action has been in an area of a confluence of support for a while. However, last week the support trendline from the low of January 2013 (chocolate colour) was threatened. Also, even though the horizontal support level around the 1.23570 area was tested last week, it was not broken. However, as there is a strong likelihood of a bearish continuation, a break of this level may target the next ‘minor’ support around the 1.22195 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action whch had moved southward about 100 pips from an area of technical value or mean, retraced northward during the last session on Friday. Much likely we may see a retracement to the 32.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing low last week Friday from the high of 1.26642 before momentum for a southward continuation materializes. This area is between 1.24340 and 1.24700 (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines).
After the 32.8 Fib retracement in May 2017 of the swing low from the high of January 2016 to the low of January 2017, the pair continues its decline. The pinbar formed on the weekly time frame last week indicates further bearish move and the technicals on the weekly time frame are in sync. However, it should be noted that current price action is around a minor support (the 1.59995 area). Should price action breach this support, this may expose the 1.57360 handle.
On the daily time frame, since June 2017, price action has been operating within a descending channel (bound in navy coloured lines). Last week Wednesday, it rejected the distal channel line with a strong bearish engulfing candlestick. This was followed up on Friday with another bearish move. Overall price wave formation indicates a third wave heading southward and we may expect this move to target the 1.57390 area.
The descending channel seen on the daily time frame (bound in navy coloured lines) is pronounced on the H4 time frame and the third price wave, which is bearing southward, is in play. Technically, nothing on the H4 time frame suggests anything different from a bearish continuation. And this move may target somewhere between 1.59995 and 1.59863 before a retracement occurs.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for price action to retrace to the 32.8 Fib zone, which is between 1.24340 and 1.24700 (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines on the H4 time frame) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
If you are tracking the EURUSD, you may be mindful of the fact that the momentum for a northward push is decreasing. Current price action is pushing to an area (around the 1.20210 area) that is just about 100 pips to a significant resistance area (around the 1.21225 area) on the monthly time frame. Although technically the pair is in a northward mode, a retracement is in the offing. Personally, I will wait for a retracement to around the inner ascending trendline on the H4 time frame (magenta colour) to see if a northward trade is feasible or a break for a southward move towards the next or outer trendline (navy colour). See attachments below.
If you are watching the EURGBP, here’s what I am seeing on the H4 time frame. If the current resistance trendline (magenta colour) is effectively breached northward, we may target the next upper trendline (chocolate colour). However, if the resistance trendline is breached southward, we may see a bearish turnaround perhaps with a view to targeting the immediate support trendline (navy colour).
I will wait for the close of the current H4 candlestick to decide way to trade. Should I get a significant set-up after a close of the current H4 candlestick, I will enter the trade.
The pair has continued to maintain an upward mode. On the weekly time frame, last week price action edged further up toward the significant resitance around the 1.21225 area but failed to reach it. The area was traversed southward in December 2014 by price action and had not been hit after two bullish attempts in the last two weeks. The last sessions during last week saw the bears pushing price back from the high of 1.20917; which is just about 30 pips shy of the resistance zone in the 1.21225 area. This may result in the bulls making a strong move to take out the zone this week on a third attempt. This area however, is the 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of May 2014 to the low of January 2017 and may result in a southward turnaround. Thus, there is little room for a bullish move given that price action is in a confluence zone of resistance on monthly time frame and 50 Fib retracement from a drop from the high of May 2014.
On the daily time frame, price action has been respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 17, 2017. However, price action has moved away upward to respect an inner support trendline (saddlebrown colour), which is indicative of an increase in northward momentum. As long as the inner trendline is intact, northward trading should be a more feasible bias than southward trading. The daily candlestick formed on Friday last week was miniature relative to Thursday’s daily candlestick and saw an attempt by sellers to resist further upward move of price action. Nevertheless, price action has been limited to operate within an ascending wedge and two price waves are evident within the wedge. Is this a toping formation? There may be need to wait for clarity in price action because a significant horizontal resistance zone (around the 1.21225 area) is less than 70 pips above the wedge while the immediate horizontal support is in the 1.19528 area, which is about 75 pips below the current location of price action.
On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating around the distal end of an ascending wedge seen on the daily time frame and respecting a mini support trendline (magenta colour). Should the trendline be breached southward, price action is likely to target the proximal part of the wedge around the 1.19174 area and, by extension, may expose the monthly central pivot around 1.18800. Such a move is likely to be corrective in nature as the major technical outlook is bullish and the support trendlines on the daily time frame are still in tact.
The pair has continued its descent. On the monthly time frame, the order flow is clearly in favour of further bearish move. Recent price action is just 110 pips shy of the immediate significant support zone in the 1.19015 area. As this is the first strong move of price action to return to that area since January 2015, we may see further move to target the zone. The technicals on the monthly time frame are in sync for further southward move.
On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a descending wedge and is presently at the proximal end of the wedge upon a third price wave. Besides, price action is at an area of support on the weekly time frame. Last week a relatively big bearish candlestick was formed which gave a strong intent that bears would follow through the bearish pin bar formed two weeks ago. The technicals on the weekly time frame are in support of further southward move. Such a move is likely to target the immediate support zone around the 1.19015 area.
The order flow on the H4 time frame is clearly under the control of bears. However, last Friday’s sessions bulls pushing back price towards an area of value. The constellation of H4 bullish candlesticks formed on Friday portends a further pullback of price. The immediate area of value for such a pullback is likely to be the 38.2 Fiib zone of the most recent swing low from the high of August 31, 2017; this is between 1.22155 and 1.23097 (bound in magenta horizontal lines). The medium-and long-term technicals on the H4 time frame support further southward, advisably after the short-term pullback.
GBPCAD continues bearing southward. On the weekly time frame, a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) is being respected. However, in the past three weeks price action has been in a ranging operation. Last week’s candlestick showed a bullish bias and we may see a northward push early this week before a southward turnaround.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in a descending triangle (bound in magenta coloured lines). The most recent candlesticks are bullish and have pushed price distally in the triangle. We may expect pice action to move furher upward, perhaps to test the origin of the bearish drop of September 6, 2017, around the 1.62167 area. This area is proximal to the 61.8 Fib zone of the swing down from the high of August 31, 2017 to the low of September 6, 2017. This is also in confluence with a resistance area on the daily time frame.
My primary technical bias is neutral as there is little room for a bullish move given that price action is in a confluence zone of resistance on monthly time frame and 50 Fib retracement from a drop from the high of May 2014. Thus any rally upward is likely to present me a selling opportunity. Also, if price action breaks the mini support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame southward, I wil look for a sell trading opportunity to ride the price to the proximal part of the wedge.
The pair has continued on an upward move after a retracement to the 127.275 area. On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (saddlebrown colour) from the low of June 2017. As long as this trendline is intact, a bullish bias could be maintained. The major horizontal resistance is at the 133.710 area.
On the daily time frame, price action was operating in a horizontal channel (bound in magenta-coloured horizontal lines) and made two price waves since August 3, 2017 with the second price wave hitting the distal channel line and breaking above it last week Friday. The most recent price action is respecting a mini support trendline (navy colour) and price action made a 61.8 Fib retracement to the trendline on September 5, 2017. The last trading sessions last week Friday saw the bears pushing price southward and we may expect a pullback to the trendline, perhaps to around the 130.890 area before further northward move.
Price action on the H4 time frame is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame. However, from the most recent price action last week Friday, a resistance trendline (magenta colour) is emerging. Should price action validate this resistance trendline on Monday, we may expect bears to drive price southward, initially to retest th distal cannel line around 131.62, which is about 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing high on the H4 time frame. This appears to be a more feasible price action technically as the price is too far, more than 100 pips, from the mean vaue area. Nevertheless, we may witness a period of consolidation, particularly on lower tine frames, before such a southward move materializes. As the major market outook is bullish technically, such a southward move to test the support trendline (navy colour) may be merely corrective. However, should that support trendline be broken, particularly on a daily cose, we may see a negation of the bullish bias and the next support around the 129.600 area will be exposed.
The pair has a bullish disposition on the monthly time frame and a support trendline (forest green colour) from the low of April 2017 is intact. However, price action has moved into an area of resistance and we may see a period of range trading before clarity of technical outlook is got.
On the weekly time frame, a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of March 2017 is closely aligned with the support trendline (forest green colour) seen on the monthly time frame and very much respected. But recent price action has moved too far from this trendline and from the mean, and it is within a resistance zone. Thus, we may likely see a pull back before any further bullish momentum. However, this does not preclude the market from driving price farther up towards the immediate resistance zone around the 1.38140 area. Nevertheless, it is worth noting that apart from the horizontal resistance, price action may have to contend with the resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of June 2015.
Price action on the H4 time frame has been parabolic. It has moved further up from the ascending trendline (navy colour) from the daily time frame. It respected a support trendline (magenta colour) in August 2017 and then moved further upward to respect an inner support trendline (red colour) from the low of September 5, 2017. The most recent price action has moved upward about 470 pips away from this inner trendline. Very much likely, a retracement is in the offing. Such a retracement may be a retest of the trendline or the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone (bound in magenta coloured horizontal lines), between 1.33063 and 1.32467. However, as the most recent H4 candlestick is bullish and apparently re-targeting the highest price level formed on Friday, we may see a temporary upward move of price action or, perhaps, a period of range trading on lower time frames before heading southward for the retracement.
Price action on this pair has moved upward after a period of consolidation in August 2017. On the weekly time frame, last week, price action hit a resistance area (around the 1.88020 area) which it traversed southward in April 2017. However, the price action during the latter part of the week saw bears pushing price back a bit after a strong bullish move. We may see price action going further upward to around the 1.90427 area. The area represents the immediate resistance zone on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline from the low of August 18, 2017 and the momentum increased last week Thursday. However, the momentum reduced on Friday as bears managed to push price back to the 1.86195 area, which is a minor S/R area last tranversed southward on May 22, 2017. This area may witness a consolidating price action or pullback to the support trendline before further bullish move. At any rate, a pullback is in the offing as price is too far from an area of value.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved further upward from the support trendline (navy colour) seen on the D1. It is now respecting an inner suppot trendline (magenta colour) from the low of September 8, 2017. The sessions on Friday resulted in a topping formation, including two bearish pinbars, at a significant resistance zone around the 1.86195 area. Apparently, a retracement southward is in the offing. A likely target of such a retracement is the inner support trendline (magnta) or the confluence zone of a minor support area and the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone of the most recent swing high (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines), spanning 1.84997 and 1.83531.
