I am bullish on this pair. However, should price action produce a bearish signal rejecting the resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame southward, I will look for a sell trade opportunity and target the 130.650 area. A buy trade will become feasible if price action significantly breaks above the resistance trendline (magenta colour), bounces off the distal channel line around the 131.62 area northward or bounces off the support trendline (navy colour) northward.
Technically, a bullish mode appears to be in play but a bullish continuation is not likely to be sustainable given the location of current price action; there is a confluence of resistance around and near this location. Besides, recent price action has moved parabolically northward and too far from the mean value area. Therefore, a much likely and more feasible bias, at least in the short term and until a further significant technical change, will be to act on a bearish mode. Thus, from a technical perspective, a retracement southward is likely to provide at least 300 pips trade opportunity.
I see the possibility of benefiting from both a bearish and a bullish move on this pair. In the short term, a bearish move is likely to present an opportunity for at least 150 pips from the current location of price action, perhaps after a period of sideways operation. Should price move southward, a signal for bullish continuation around the 38.2/50 Fib retracement zone (or a bounce off the inner trendline (magenta colour) is likely to produce an equally positive trade, which may be more rewarding as the bulls had shown an intent to revisit the 1.89020, which was last transversed in April 2017 and may expose the 1.90420 handle. However, should price action break below the outer support trendline (navy colour), a bearish bias is more likely to be sustainable.
If you are tracking USDJPY, note that technically the pair is at a minor resistance, going by the daily time frame. But the major resistance is still farther up, around the 113.910 area. However, fundamentals can be decisive as to whether we get that far this week. Nevertheless, a daily close above the 112.190 area is likely to expose the 113.910 area as a target for bulls.
If you are tracking USDCAD, note that the technicals on the D1 are strongly in support of a bearish continuation. A resistance trendline from the high of June 9, 2017 is holding and the daily candlesticks on Tuesday and Wednesday are a rejection of the resistance area where price action was operating.
The pair has maintained its bullish tone . However, on the weekly time frame the momentum appears to be waning with the candlestick formed last week less bullish than the one formed two weeks ago. Besides, the current price action on the pair is around a weekly S/R zone and we may have a period of sideways operation in the early part of this week before clarity of direction is established. This location is aligned with the 78.6 Fib retracement area of the swing down from the high of May 2015 to the low of June 2016 and also the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the swing down from the high of December 2014 to the the low of June 2016.
Price action is respecting an outer support trendline (navy colour) and an inner support trendline (chocolate colour) on the daily time frame and as long as the trendlines are still intact, a bullish disposition will be maintained. A sideways pattern is clearly seen on the daily time frame during the last four days of lart week. Also, a wedge pattern is also discernible through the resistance trenndline (magenta colour) on the highs of the daily candlesticks, and two price waves have been formed within the wedge. A third price wave is likely to bear southward and target the outer support trendline (navy colour) or the horizontal support around the 130.066 area, which is in confluence with the monthly central pivot.
A wedge pattern has been formed by recent price action on the H4 time frame (bound in magenta coloured lines). As seen on the daily time frame, two price waves are visible and a third is bearing southward. This may lead to the break of the wedge southward and target the minor support zone on the H4 time frame around the 131.325 area, which is a 61.8 Fib retracement level of the most recent swing high from the outer support trendline (navy colour) seen on the daily time frame; this descent may extend to the 130.600 area – which is the 78.6 Fib retracement area, and retest the inner support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daily time frame.
Here’s an update on this pair. The wedge on the H4 time frame has broken southward and moved over 80 pips. Will it move further southward? In my reckoning the next technical area to watch is the 130.600 handle, a natural target for bears.
Technically the USDCAD is operating in an ascending channel. Although current price action is near the distal channel line, a minor resistance is around the 1.25314 area. Besides,on the H4 time frame the current price action is at the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of August 15, 2017 to the low of September 8, 2017. So a retracement southward is likely to be in the offing.
Gold (XAUUSD) is retesting the daily central pivot and an S/R flip zone. A rejection of this zone southward is likely to target the immediate minor support around the 1270.50 area.
I will not be tracking the EURUSD this week. The pairs I will be tracking the week beginning October 1, 2017 are AUDUSD and XAUUSD (GOLD) because there was clarity in price action on the pairs last week.
The bearish rejection candlestick, in the shape of a pinbar, formed on the monthly time frame last month gives a high probability of a southward orientation on this pair. This candlestick was formed around a significant resistance zone. A support trendline (chocolate colour) is noticeable on the monthly time frame, but price action is too far from the trendline. We may expect price action to move towards retesting the trendline in the weeks ahead.
On the weekly time frame, a bearish continuation pattern is maintained following through the rejection of a significant resistance zone four weeks ago with a strong bearish pinbar last week, which pierced a weekly S/R zone southward around the 1299.50 area. Price action is respecting the support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the monthly time frame. Together with a resistance trendline from the high of April 2017 (navy colour) we can see an ascending channel (or expanding wedge?) formed from the support trendline (chocolate colour), and price action is operating within it. Three price waves have been formed within the channel and a fourth is bearing southward. The immediate significant, horizontal support is around the 1236.20 area and may be a natural target of bears in the weeks ahead. This area is just 400 pips from the current location of price action.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within a descending channel (bound in magenta-coloured lines) and the technical are pointing towards futher bearish move. But as the most recent price action on the H4 time frame saw the bull resisting further southward move, we may expect a brief pull back towards an area of value, perhaps around the 1290.90 – 1295.70 zone (bound by horizontal magenta-coloured lines) before the southward move continues. This zone is the immediate minor resistance and is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the most recent significant swing on the H4 time frame .
After a period of consolidation, the pair is disposed southward. On the weekly time frame, last week a bearish continuation candlestick formed. However, the last sessions of last week saw a strong attempt by bulls to restrain this move. And an ascending trendline (navy colour) from the low of December 2016 is still intact.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (bound by navy coloured lines) formed by the support trendline seen on the weekly time frame and a resistance trendline from the high of July 28, 2017. Two price waves have formed within the channel and third is in play from the distal channel line. The most recent price action has reached a significant support zone and this is in confluence with a support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of June 1, 2017. The price action on Thursday and Friday last week was under the control of bulls and we may see a retracement to an area of value before further southward move. The target of such a retracement is likely to be the 0.79015 area, which is the immediate minor resistance on the daily time frame. However, should price action continue without a retracement, a break southward is likely to target the 0.77140 area.
Price action on the H4 timeframe is respecting a resistance trendline (magenta colour). The technicals are largely biased in favour of bears. Therefore, very much likely and based on the bgiger picture from the weekly and daily time frames, we may expect a southward continuation in the medium term. The immediate target of such a southward move is the 0.78700 area.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a pullback towards the 1290.90/12.95.70 zone before looking for a sell trading opportunity. This zone is the immediate minor resistance and is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the most recent significant swing on the H4 time frame .
The pair has resumed a bearish mode on the weekly time frame after breaking a support trendline from the low of April 2017. Last week, the bears pushed price action into a weekly horizontal support zone but the bulls resisted the move. On the daily time frame, price action has ben ranging for over eight days after breaking the support trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of April 2017. The most recent price action is retracing upward and may target the 1.18225 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is makng a move upward into an area of value, it may target the 1.18510 area; which is proximal to the monthly central pivot. Nevertheless, we may expect a trendline (navy colour) from the high of August 20, 2017 to act as resitance. It will be interesting to see how price action behaves around this trendline.
Four weeks ago, price action on this pair entered the 50.0 Fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of June 2016 to the low of January 2017. Since then price action on the pair has commenced a bearish descent. Last week, a strong bearish candlestick broke below the monthly central pivot. With the technicals on the weekly time frame disposed southward, we may expect a bearish continuation to target the immediate support around the 1.28850 area; this may extend to a significant support around the 1.27115 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a resistance trendline (navy colour) from the high of September 20, 2017. However, as the recent price action is a bit far from the trendline, we may expect a pullback to retest it before any further southward move. It should be noted that an ascending trendline (chocolate colour) from the low of March 14, 2017 is acting as support and could be a natural target for a bearish move. Should this support trendline break, price action is likely to target the next horizontal support around the 1.27115 area. The technicals on the daily time frame are disposed southward.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken an inner support trendline (magenta colour) and heading towards a major support trendline (chocolate colour) seen on the daiy time frame. The last two sessions on Friday saw a bullish move to push price upward. Should the bulls succeed in this move, we may see a retracement to the immediate horizontal support around the 1.32000 area or a retest of the support trendline (magenta colour) turned resistance before price action heads southward with a potential, initial target being the major support trendline (chocolate colour), which may extend to the horizontal support around the 1.27115 area.
I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for price action to retrace into the area between 1.18238 and 1.18668 (bound in magenta coloured lines) before looking for a sell trade. Also, should the resistance trendline (navy colour) on the H4 hold, this may provide a sell trading opportunity.
The bearish disposition began by the pair three weeks ago continued with a bearish pinbar formed around the monthly central pivot last week. This apparently is an indication that we may expect further bearish move in the days ahead. Price action in the past three weeks has been around the 61.8 Fib zone of the drop from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken the support trendline (navy colour) from the low of April 14, 2017. Together with a resistance trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of July 11, 2017, it was apparent that price action has been operating in a wedge for quite a while. Although the wedge is apparently breached southward, a support trendline (magenta colour) from the highs formed between July and early September 2017 is still intact and will have to be breached before we can expect momentum for a bearish continuation. Should this happen, a likely target for such a bearish move is the 129.970 area, the origin of the most recent swing high. Otherwise, we may expect price action to move sideways for a while or retest the 133.800 area.
Price action was operating in a wedge on the H4 time frame for a long while in September and October. The wedge is not yet broken, particularly considering that the wedge support (dark violet colour) on the H4 time frame is still not decisively breached even though that of the D1 time frame (navy colour) has been breached. Therefore, we may expect a retracement, perhaps to retest the wedge resistance (red colour); although the support trendline on D1 turned resistance may be an initial target of such a retest. We may expect the 133.100/350 area to be a magnet of such a retracement before a turnaround for a bearish continuation materializes. The technicals on the H4 time frame are disposed southward…
On the weekly time frame, price action has been largely ambivalent in the past two weeks. Currently, price action is in a flip zone and last week the price action formed an indecision candlestick at the 61.8 Fib of the most recent swing high, although the technicals favour the bears.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (navy colour). Two major price waves have been formed within the channel, with the the second having a bullish disposition. The most recent price action is favorably under the control of bears and we may expect the third price wave to dispose southward, targeting the proximal channel line. But along the way we may see barriers around the monthy central pivot (in the 1.22530 area) and around the 1.22150 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (magenta colour) for a long while, this is apparently the second price wave in the descending channel seen on the D1 time frame. This ascending channel has been broken by price action last week Tuesday. The last session on last week Friday resulted in a bearish candlestick and is likely to be the beginning of the third leg down, to align with the major technical disposition on the monthly, weekly and daily time frames. Thus, we may expect a bearish continuation in the days ahead. Before then, we may see a retracement northward; the area between 1.25500 and 1.25900 (bound by red coloured horizontal lines) is likely to be attractive to bulls as a target. Thereafter, we are likely to see a bearish turnaround.
