From my top-down technical analyses of the pairs on my watch list, the NZD is weakest among the majors.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame the pair has moved away further upward from an outer ascending trendline (chocolate colour) to respect an inner ascending trendline (navy colour), indicating an increase in momentum. Last week, the price action broke away from the monthly central pivot to retest a resistance zone in the 1.73350 area.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (red colour) but it has moved too far from the trendline and an area of value. This, coupled with the fact that the most recent swing high is close to the one before it, indicates that a pullback is likely to be in the offing. Such a pull back may see price action retesting the support trendline (red colour) or at least the immediate horizontal support around the 1.69370 area (equivalent to a 61.8 Fib retracement of the most recent swing up). In fact, bears managed to push back the price last week Friday. We may expect a follow through early this week.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour) from the low of November 8, 2017. However, the momentum has decreased and bears are beginning to become more influential. They may push price action to retest the trendline (magenta coloured) or even retrace to the immediate minor support zone around the 1.70320 area; which may extend to the 1.69370 area. This forms an immediate horizontal support zone; bound by bold, horizontal blue lines on the attached H4 chart. This zone represents the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone of the most recent upward swing. Should this zone be defended by bulls, and turnaround northward, the bullish mode will continue. However, should the zone break southward, this may expose the next support around the 1.67935 area and dispose the pair to a bearish mode; potentially targeting the 1.66560 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame, price action on this pair has moved northward and in the past few weeks has been testing an area which it last visited in June 2016. This area, represented by the 1.93330 area may be crucial to the current bullish mode of this pair. Should price action push further northward, a likely target is the 1.99200 area. From that area, we may expect price action to head southward. However, a descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of September 2015 may operate as resistance.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour) from the low of October 3017. But the long upper wick on the candlestick formed last week indicates that bears were pushing price southward. This may result in a retest of the trendline.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an ascending wedge and two price waves have formed within it. The third price wave began on Friday and is likely to head southward; otherwise we may see a consolidation of price action or a retest of the resistance line of the wedge. Notice that an inner ascending trendline (blue colour) is being respected as support by price action and current location of price action is about 150 pips above it; so a retest of the trendline may be expected. A breach of this support trendline is likely to see bears target the channel line below, resulting in the completion of the third price wave within the channel. Nevertheles, price action around the 38.2 Fib zone of the recent upward swing (in the region of the 1.92350 area) and around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone (in the region of the 1.90580 area) should be watched. But a breach of the 78.6 Fib zone, just below the support line of the wedge (around the 1.89350 area), is likely to result in a bearish turnaround on this pair.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
NZDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the NZD has been on the southward mode against the majors in the recent past. The situation obtains on this pair. On the weekly time frame, the pair has been in a consolidation mode for the past four weeks. Last week, bears took price action below the consolidation area but the attempt was curtailed by bulls. Price action is currently located at a support zone around the 0.67750 area, an area which was last visited in May 2016. As the general mode of the NZD is southward, we may expect the price action to move furthrer south with a potential target being the next support zone around the 0.66860 area, an area which witnessed a bullish rally in May 2016. The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced for further southward disposition of this pair.
On the daily time frame, price action is disposed southward and a resistance trendline (blue colour) from the high of September 22, 2017 is still in play. Two impulsive southward price waves have been formed and a third is in play. However, price action last Friday saw the bulls pushing price back to contain the southward move.
On the H4 time frame, price action has moved parabolically further away from the resistance trendline (blue colour) seen on the daily time frame. This is an indication of an increased southward momentum. In fact, the bearish candlesticks are dominant in size and number and we may expect further southward move in the early part of next week before any retracement. The retracement is likely to be to the immediate minor resistance around the 0.70350 area, an area that is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bullish on this pair. Should price action present a favoraouble setup around the 50/61.8 Fib retracement zone (bound in bold horizontal blue lines) on the H4 time frame, I will go for a buy trade. However, should price turnaround early, at the support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame, particularly at a location that is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent upward swing, I will look for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement of price to around the 0.70350 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing, before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
I am bullish on this pair only to the point that the 78.6 Fib retracement seen on the H4 time frame around the 1.89350 area is not breached southward. Should price offer a favorable setup, particularly around the support line of the wedge on the H4 time frame or the 61.8 Fib zone (around the 1.90580 area), I will look for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURNZD is disposed northward from a technical perspective. On the weekly time frame, price action which was respecting a support trendline (blue colour) from the low of February 2017, has pushed further upward to respect an inner ascending trendline (red colour). This is indicative of increase in northward momentum. We may expect the zone between the two trendlines to serve as support for some time. A breach of the outer trendline (blue colour) southward on a daily close is likely to shift the disposition of price action in favour of bears. It should be noted that last week an indecision candlestick formed near the closing price of the bullish candlestick formed two weeks ago; this negated any expected follow through of the bullish price action two weeks ago. Therefore, price action in the first two days of trading this week is likely to signpost the market sentiment for the rest of the week.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a wedge-like channel (bound by two red lines). The most recent price action is proximal to a horizontal resistance zone around the 1.73890 area. Recent price action saw bears pushed price back. Should the bears succeed with a follow-through, we may see a period of consolidation or pullback in the early part of this week before further northward push. A pullback to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high should be of interest for a buy trading opportunity. This area lies between 1.70580 and 1.68800.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However, neither the bulls nor the bears are in dominance. As price action is proximal to a horizontal resistance, bears may attempt to push price back towards an area of equilibrium, likely below the support trendline (magenta colour). This area is in the 23.6/38.2 Fib zone of the most recent swing high, lying between 1.72300 and 1.71160. Such a move is likely to offer a sell trading opportunity but lingering in such a trade should be avoided as the bigger technical outlook favours the bulls.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically the pair is disposed northward. On the weekly time frame, price action has moved northward from an area of consolidation around the 1.71340 area. However, last week bears contained bulls from pushing price further up after a strong bullish move two weeks ago. This restraining action on the part of bears resulted in an indecision candlestick on the weekly time frame last week. Price action is currently around a resistance zone.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (navy colour). The recent price action is in a consolidation phase. This may result in a retest of the support trendline before further northward move. We may expect such a pullback to target the 1.73760 area. An initial target for bulls is the 1.76250 area, which is an extension of the immediate resistance zone.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a support trendline (magenta colour). However, the price action is in an area of consolidation and momentum seems to be waning. This may lead to a pullback in the early sessions this week before a bullish continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
This pair has been operating within a range (between 108.140 and 114.280) since February 2017. On the weekly time frame, this area (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is located approximately between the 32.8 and 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the swing from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. Currently, price action is around the resistance channel line of the range and bearing southward. The technicals on the wekly time frame are in sync for bearish disposition and the 108.140/10 area is likely to be a target of such a southward move. A descending trendline (chocolate colour) from the high of June 2015 is acting as resistance.
On the daily time frame, price action is strongly under the control of bears. On Friday, the bulls attempted to push price up but were restrained by bears. Should bulls manage a follow-through early this week, we may see a retracement upward, with a likely target being the immediate resistance around the 112.680 area, and may extend to test an inner resistance trendline (navy colour).
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an area of consolidation but the last session saw the formation of an indecision candlestick which failed to take out the high of the previous candlestick. It was apparent from the number and size of the bullish candlesticks that the bulls were more influential. We may see a retracement to the upside before a southward continuation materializes. Such a retracement may extend to validate the inner resistance trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame, perhaps at an area of comnfluence to the 38.2 Fib retracement of the swing down from the high of November 6, 2017. This area is around the 112.680 handle.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
It may be feasible to look to trading this pair southward from a break of the support trendline (magenta colour) on the H4 time frame. However, this should be an interim trade. For me, the big opportunity is likely to come from a buy setup upon a retracement to the 50/61.8 Fib zone of the most recent swing high. This area lies between 1.70580 and 1.68800. Should a set-up in this area not materialize, I will step aside and wait for what happens around the 78.6 Fib zone, near the 1.67935 area; which is proximal to the monthly central pivot.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
I am bearish on this pair. However, I will wait for price action to retrace to at least the 112.680 area before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I am bullish on this pair. However, I will wait for a retracement to around the 1.73760 area before looking for a buy trading opportunity.
Trade safe and prosper.
It has taken much of this week for price action on USDJPY to retrace to the 38.2 Fib zone. Now we can look for further southward move for the next few trading days.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
If you are tempted to trade EURUSD southward because of a low time frame signal, e.g. a double top on M30 tf, check yourself. Imho, EURUSD still has a disposition northward if you look at a higher time frame, e.g D1. You may be looking at the 1.20060 area before a turnaround can be considered.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The northward orientation of this pair appears to still be intact. On the monthly time frame, last month a bullish candlestick formed and it took price action beyond the high of the candlestick formed in October 2017. Presently, price action is located around an S/R zone and we may expect some sideway movement in the area before clarity in direction is seen. The 1.76650/1.77320 zone is a likely target of any successful northward move by bulls.
On the weekly time frame, price action has moved away from respecting an outer ascending trendline (chocolate colour) and an inner ascending trendline (navy colour) is now acting as support. Last week, an indecision candlestick was formed at a resistance zone around the 1.73600 area. The location of price action is too far from an area of value measured by the nearest moving average on my system. So, we may expect a pullback, perhaps to the support trendline (navy colour), before any likely bullish continuation.
Price action on the daily time frame is operating within an ascending channel (bound in magenta coloured lines). In the past few days, price action has been operating at the distal end of the channel in a flag formation (bound in red coloured lines). We should watch what happens to price action in this area in the early days of this week. But the technicals indicate a weakening of bullish momentum. Much likely, we may see a southward pullback in the early part of this week before a bullish continuation materializes. The zone between the channel support line (magenta colour) and the support trendline from the weekly time frame (navy colour) is likely to serve as a target of bears before any northward turn around.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The pair has disposed northward since much of October 2017. On the weekly time frame, bulls moved price northward from a zone that had acted as resistance for over six weeks. The next target for bulls is likely to be the next resistance around the 1.37390 area. That may likely fill the gap created during the week of June 19, 2017.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel (bound in red coloured lines). Five price waves have been completed. However between mid September and mid November 2017, price action has largely been sideways. Bulls took price action northward in late November but failed to reach the distal part of the channel. Nevertheless, price action is still under the control of bulls although there was a pullback of price by bears last week Friday. We may expect a pull back to a support trendline (navy colour) in the days ahead. This may extend to the distal channel line.
On the H4 time frame, bears took control of recent price action and pushed price southwards. However, the ascending (support) trendline seen on the daily time frame (navy colour) is still intact. An immediate target of the southward pullback is likely to be the 1.33420 area, which is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib zone of the upward swing from the low of November 13, 2017. This may extend to, or expose, the 50/61.8 Fib band, which is proximal to the immediate support on the H4 time frame and may be a retest of the support trendline (navy colour). In fact, price action may continue southward to retest the proximal channel line (red colour) seen on the daily time frame. Thereafter, we may expect price action to turnaround northward.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
We are dealing with ranging market conditions largely. So, unless you scalp, it will be a good decision to stay on the sidelines for a while and return later (perhaps after a few hours) to check how the market conditions are evolving. Besides, patience is of utmost importance in these market conditions.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURGBP is classic in ranging. It may be of interest to see what happens to this pair in the next few hours. If the range formed on the D1 time frame (bound in horizontal magenta lines) breaks southward, which is technically supported, we may likely see a big southward move.
Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD is erratic atm. It is in sideways mode based on W1 and D1 technicals.
Trade safe and prosper.