EURUSD Top Down Analysis

Technical outlook on D1 time frame.

EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook

EURGBP has been in consolidation for much of the past 6-7 months. On the monthly timeframe, price action moved southward in April 2018 from an area (0.87200/0.88370) where it had operated sideways since October 2017. The candlestick so far printed in April 2018 is a few pips below the low of an indecision candlestick printed in March 2018. Although the candlestick has moved below a support zone around the 0.87200 area, price action is still operating in a triangle (black). But as recent order flow is under the control of bears, we may see bears target the triangle support or the immediate horizontal support around the 0.85910 area.

On the daily time frame, price action breached southward an ascending trendline (red) from the low of November 2015 and has been operating in a horizontal channel (magenta) since November 29, 2017. Between last week Wednesday and Friday, price action moved a few pips below the channel. A minor descending trendline (black) is now in play and may act as resistance to price action. The technicals are in sync for further southward move. As the next support is just a few pips southward, around the 0.86020 area, and within reach of bears, a more attractive target for bears is likely to be the 0.85220/0.84010 zone.

On the H4 time frame, bulls were taking price action northward toward the end of session last week Friday. An evening star formation could be seen in the early part of last Friday session. Apparently bulls may be interested in targeting the immediate horizontal resistance around the 0.86890 area or even the resistance trendline (black) from the high of March 7, 2018. At any rate, such a move is likely to be temporary before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Market on the EURJPY began a southward mode in July 2008. Following a downward swing from the high of July 2008 to the low of July 2012, price action retraced northward toward the 78.6 Fib area but turned around at the the 149.760 by December 2014. See attached monthly chart 1.

From the 149.760 area, the market restored the southward mode. On the monthly time frame, price action has made a similar retracement; the downward swing from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016 has witnessed a northward retracement to near the 78.6 Fib zone, around the 137.490 area, in February 2018. See attached monthly chart 2. After price action printed a strong bearish candlestick, an engulfing type, for a southward disposition in February 2018, bulls attempted a northward pushback in March 2018 but failed to take price action far. Price action in April 2018 is presently heading northward but bears are resisting. It is currently located in a horizontal resistance zone around the 132.850 area. As it is apparent that price action is lacking in northward momentum, we may see bears effect a southward turnaround soon.

On the weekly time frame, price action has moved away from a major ascending trendline (red) and is respecting an inner ascending trendline (black) which is operating as support. Last week, price action printed a rather weak bulish candlestick (with wicks on both ends). Bears asserted pressure to hinder the attempt of buls to take price beyond the horizontal resistance around the 132.850 area. As the order flow context since February has been largely influenced by bears, we may see them push price action southward, ar least to retest the support trendline (black). Nevertheless, we should not be unmindful of a resistance trendline (magenta) that may be appealing to bulls before they submit to a southward turnaround. Such a bullish intent may see a northward breach of the immediate horizontal resistance around 132.850 and a retest of the horizontal resistance around the 134.250 area; an area that is in confluence with the 61.8 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing from the February 2018 high.

Price action on the daily time frame is now around a resistance zone. Although a shooting-star like candlestick was printed last week Friday, the technicals are still disposed northward. We may see a pullback southward into the mean or the support trendline (blue) before price action continues northward. However, there are a few resistance areas which bulls will have to contend with: the horizontal resistance around the 134.250 area and the resistance trendline (magenta) seen on the weekly time frame.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (blue). Giving the context of the major trend (looking left), there is likely to be a bearish turnaround after the corrective phase. The last three sessions last Friday printed three bearish candlesticks; but the order flow context is largely under the bulls. Besides, a micro support trendline (chocolate) is still in play. Nevertheless, there are a few barriers for bulls to scale: wedge resistance trendline, horizontal resistance (minor resistance around 133.180; major resistance around 134.250) and resistance trendline (magenta). On the other hand, should the micro support trendline (chocolate) be broken down by bears, they will have to contend with the minor horizontal support (dark orange) around the 131.795 area before heading for the wedge support trendline. A breakdown of the support trendline on at least a four-hourly basis, with a retest and zone flip, is likely to give the impetus for a bearish continuation.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

Last week, price action headed northward on the USDJPY. Because I have a bearish technical bias on the pair, I stepped aside; moreso as markets in general waere rather sideways. I am still bearish on this pair.

On the weekly time frame, in February 2018, price action broke down a horizontal channel (magenta) where it had operated for quite a long while. However, since the last week of March 2018, bulls have taken price action northward and may likely retest the proximal area of the channel before any southward turnaround. This proximal area, around 108.260, is in confluence with the 38.2 Fib retracement of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time frame. By extension, the retracement may see bulls target the immediate resistance around 109.270, which is in confluence with the 50 Fib retracement.

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending triangle. The most recent price action printed two bearish candlesticks but the order flow is under the control of bulls. In the context of a weekly time frame with a bearish technical outlook and the longer descending trend on the H4 time frame (see trendline in red colour), price action is primarily on a corrective move to retest a broken support zone around the 108.260 area and perhaps flip the zone as resistance.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

I am bearish on this pair. But I will wait for price action to retrace northward to either around 0.86890 or 0.87330 (around the daily time frame channel support line {magenta)/the resistance trendline {black} ) before looking for a sell trading opportunity.

Trade safe and prosper.

Even though I am technically bearish on this pair, I will wait for market to show me its hands regarding its intent around the various barriers and turning zones identified above. I will look for a southward turnaround after the bulls have been frustrated in their attempts to scale the barriers. As long as price action is still operating in the ascending wedge on the H4 time frame (blue), I will step aside. I prefer taking a sell trade from the 61.8 Fib area (around the 134.250 area) or a significant break of the wedge support on at least a four-hourly closing basis.

Trade safe and prosper

If you are tracking AUDUSD, realize that market on the pair has been in consolidation within a descending channel for quite a while. Presently price action on the daily time frame is around the channel resistance where a pin bar formed last week Thursday. It is also in confluence with the daily pivot (0.77715). I expect bears to take price action southward and target the channel support.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

The zone is also in confluence with a horizontal resistance zone on the daily time frame.

If you are interested in USDCAD, you may see the market continue on the the sell side as the technicals are primarily bearish. On the daily timeframe, price action has disposed southward after a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of May 2017 to the low of September 2017. A wedge pattern is operative on the daily time frame (magenta) and the wedge support line is likely to be a target for bears. The horizontal support around 1.22610/1.20789 may be exposed if bears breach the wedge support.

Trade safe and prosper.

XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The high waves of price action on the XAUUSD on the weekly time frame indicate a topping formation. Last week, price action printed a bearish pinbar but the order flow context shows that the market is still in equilibrium between bulls and bears. Nevertheless, the fact that price action retraced towards the 78.6 Fib of the candlestick printed two weeks ago before heading southward indicates that bears are likely to test the low of that candlestick around the 1326.75 area. This may extend to the immediate horizontal support around 1317.50. The monthly pivot is around 1328.15 and its breach southward is likely, particularly after the third attempt this month.

On the daily time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (chocolate) for quite a long time. Since the beginning of 2018, however, the market has been sideways and largely confined to a horizontal channel between 1317.50 and 1362.80 (about 460 pips). The zone has served as resistance on several occasions in the past. The most recent price action is southward and located around the middle of the zone. A micro trendline (black) is operating as support and its break by price action is likely to lead to further southward move. This is likely to see bears target the channel support and may expose the 1305.50 handle (magenta).

On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge. The wedge support trendline has received a lot of visits by price action since March 2018; an indication of bearish intent to break it down. The techbicals and order flow context still favour the bears. However, as the most recent price action is very close to the wedge support (merely 22 pips), it is advisable to wait for price action to breach the support and flip it as resistance through a retest before entering a sell trade. A flip of the wedge support on at least a four-hourly closing basis is likely to give me an opportunity to look for a sell trade on this pair.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook

I have held a bearish outlook on the USDJPY for quite a while. Last week I set a sell limit at a zone I had been watching since late March 2018. But I had to cancel the order as price action was rather ambivalent. I am still bearish on the pair.

On the weekly time frame, price action had been operating in a southward channel for quite a while. Since mid-February 2018, price action has confined its operation to the lower half of the channel (mid line in blue). It has retraced northward and is near the 38.2 Fib zone of the most recent descent from the channel resistance. A northward pullback to around the 108.480 area (magenta line) or the immediate resistance around 109.390 area, which is in confluence with the 50 Fib zone, will be of interest to me for a sell trade.

On the H4 time frame, price action is constrained within a wedge/triangle pattern (green). The most recent price action has breached an inner support trendline (black) and now held by the wedge support trendline (green). Last Friday, a bullish candlestick spiked above the inner support trendline (black) and hit the the wedge resistance but ended up printing as a bearish pinbar around the 38.2 Fib retracement (of the most recent downward move from the channel resistance seen on weekly time frame) just towards the latter part of the session. This was countered by bulls and price action printed a bullish candlestick by the close of session. Apparently a tussle between bears and bulls is still on and we may expect bulls to take price action further northward, perhaps to around the 50 Fib retracement zone, the 108.460/109.390 area. However, the overall market structure still favours the bears and we may expect a southward turnaround in the early part of this week.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

During this month, price action tested the high of the bullish candlestick formed in January 2018 and turned around southward. The January 2018 candlestick has been acting as a control candlestick and, in February and March 2018, two inside candlesticks had printed after it. As the constellation of candlesticks printed since January 2018 has been around the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the most recent downward swing on the monthly time frame; the southward swing from the high of June 2016 to the low of October 2016, I expect a southward disposition of price action on the GBPUSD. This Is likely to see bears head toward the 1.34570 area; the low of the bullish candlestick printed in January 2018. This is over 550 pips southward and still a long way to go for bears; and we are going to see some northward pullback along the way. Before that ambitious target is reached, an initial target for bears is the next horizontal support around 1.38010/1.37100, which is in confluence with the low of the inside candlestick printed in March 2018.

Last week, a bearish engulfing candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame. However, the candlestick could not breach a support trendline (black) from the low of October 2017. We may likely see a northward pullback before a southward breakdown of the trendline. Two ascending trendlines (green and red) are likely to act as support for bearish price action and targets.

On the daily time frame, a series of bearish candlesticks formed last week took price action southward within an ascending channel (magenta) where it has been operating since February 2018. Last week Friday, bears took price action further southward to breach the channel support. We may expect a retest of the channel support, or even a 50/61.8 Fib retracement, before impetus for a bearish continuation. Thereafter, we may see bears take price action toward the immediate horizontal support around the 1.38450/1.37640 area. An ascending trendline (black) seen on the weekly time frame may be a temporary barrier which bears would have to contend with.

On the H4 time frame, price action is heading southward from the ascending channel (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. It is respecting a resistance trendline (blue). As the weekly candlestick printed last week was a bearish engulfing candlestick, I expect a southward continuation, more likely after a 50/61.8 Fib retracement. Of course, any thing can happen and bears may have the edge to take price action further southward without much northward retracement. At any rate, I am bearish on this pair. I will wait for the market to show its hands and then look for a sell opportunity.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

If you are tracking the NZDUSD, note that the pair still has some way to go southward. The weekly and monthly time frames are technically synced for a bearish disposition. Price action on the weekly time frame is operating in a wide horizontal channel (magenta coloured in attached D1 chart) and disposed southward, perhaps with bears being attracted to the channel support. A support trendline (black) has been breached by price action.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

If you are tracking GBPJPY, what happens around the 154.930/156.850 zone should be of interest for a sell swing trade. The zone is bound by magenta coloured lines in the attached D1 chart.

Trade safe and prosper.

The GBPJPY market is in a complex corrective phase of a downward impulsive trend. On the weekly time frame, price action is in an ascending channel (blue) representing a northward retracement, which peaked at the 78.6 Fib zone (magenta) of the most recent swing down. Price action is operating around the lower part of the channel midline. The H4 time frame shows a mix of corrective ascending channels within the main one (blue) seen on the weekly time frame; a wider one (red) and a minor one (black). The wave structure indicates the likelihood of further upward move before a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPAUD Weekly Technical Outlook

GBPAUD has been in consolidation for a few weeks around a resistance zone. Last week, price action printed a bearish pinbar around the resistance. This indicates the likelihood of a southward disposition of price action. A likely target for bears is a retest of the support trendline (black) from the low of August 2017.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge (black). However, since the beginning of 2018, price action has been respecting an inner support trendline (red) from the low of January 11, 2018. Since late March 2018, price action has been in a consolidation around the distal part of the wedge. Last week Friday, a strong bearish engulfing candlestick was printed by price action which spanned the high and low of the consolidation zone. We may expect bears to take price action further southward in the days ahead. A first target for bears is likely to be the inner support trendline (red) or the minor horizontal support around the 1.79640 area.

On the H4 time frame, it can be seen that the location of recent price action is far from the mean. Therefore, we may expect a northward pullback before further southward continuation. Such a pullback is likely to target the 1.83320 area, which is around the 50 Fib zone of the bearish engulfing candlestick formed last week Friday.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

GBPCAD Weekly Technical Outlook

In March 2018, price action on GBPCAD printed a pin-bar like pattern with a bearish tinge. This month, price action made a 61.8 Fib retracement of the printed candlestick before turning southward.

On the weekly time frame, price action has printed a series of bearish candlesticks and bears are disposed to targeting the support trendline (navy) from the low of September 2017. The bearish candlestick printed last week was relatively bigger than those printed earlier; an indication of the intent of bears to push price action further southward in the days ahead. The horizontal support around the 1.74110 area is likely to be exposed once bears breach the support trendline.

On the H4 time frame, price action has breached an ascending trendline (red) which has been acting as support. It is now operating in a descending channel (green). The momentum has been largely bearish and price action is heading toward channel support. The technicals are in support of further bearish move. However, as price action is located around a minor horizontal support (magenta) we may expect some sideways operations or a brief northward pullback before a southward continuation.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

The AUDUSD market has been in consolidation for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action has been operating in an ascending channel (red) since the middle of 2016. Looking left on the W1 chart, this consolidation seems to be a complex correction of the impulsive downtrend whch began in April 2013. In the past few weeks, price action has turned southward from the middle of the channel. Last week, a bearish candlestick broke below the channel support and moved into a horizontal support zone around the 0.75250 area before it retraced a bit northward. We may expect bears to take price action further southward this week.

On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a mini descending channel (black). The most recent price action last week Friday printed a bullish candlestick which retested the support trendline of the bigger ascending channel (red) seen on the weekly time frame. As the location of price action is far from the mean, we may expect bulls to attempt to take price action further northward, perhaps to target the next horizontal resistance around the 0.76660 area before bears could effect a southward turnaround.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.

I am bearish on this pair but I will stay on the sidelines until price action has given up its northward retracement. I will be interested in a sell trade should price action give a setup on the H4 time frame around last week high (0.76830).

Trade safe and prosper

EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook

In January 2018, the market on EURUSD completed a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of May 2014 to the low of January 2017. Presently, price action on the monthly time frame is traversing southward the 50 Fib zone. Much likely bears will be targeting the low of the bullish master/control candlestick formed in January 2018, around the 1.19160 area; and we may see further southward move in the days ahead. That area is also in confluence wth a horizontal support zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) on the monthly time frame.

On the weekly time frame, price action has been printing wicky candlesticks for some weeks and apparently leading to a topping pattern. Last week, price action printed a bearish candlestick that breached the topping zone southward. The candlestick also broke far below the monthly pivot around which price action has operated sideways since the beginning of the month. Apparently, bears will be tempted to maintain the impetus and may target the immediate horizontal support around the 1.19200 area. It should be noted that bulls pushed back the bearish move last week and somehow curtailed the southward momentum; leading to a longer wick on the low part of the candlestick than the upper part. However, bears had taken price action to a minor support area, around 1.20510 (magenta), before bulls intervened.

On the daily time frame, price action has broken below a support trendline (navy) that has been been in play for quite a while. As the present location of price action is far from the mean, we may expect a pullback to an area that had served as a horizontal support for a role flip, leading to an impetus of a southward move upon turning around. Such an area is around 1.22150.

The H4 time frame shows the most recent price action on a northward retracement. A retracement to the 1.21820/1.22150 area (bound by red horizontal lines) is much likely before a southward turnaround. The area is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone of the most recent downward swing on the daily time frame.

I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.