The USDJPY market has disposed southward for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, the order flow context has largely been in favor of bears but the southward move has witnessed some periods of consolidation. The past four weeks witnessed such a period. The bearish candlestick formed three weeks ago has been acting as a control candlestick for the two candlesticks that followed. As the bullish candlestick formed two weeks ago failed to take out the high of the control candlestick, so did the bearish candlestick formed last week fail to break below its low. A follow through of the bearish move is likely to target the next support zone around the 104.980 area. We should note the significant break of a support trendline (red) from the low of September 2012 which would act as resistance to any bullish agenda.
Price action is operating in an ascending channel (blue) on the H4 time frame. The most recent price action has disposed southward from the channel resistance but encountered a support trendline (magenta). Price action reacted to the support trendline with a tiny bullish candlestick towards the end of session last week Friday. The tiny size of the candlestick is an indication of a weakness on the part of bulls. To retain their influence, however, bears will have to break down the support trendline (red) realizing that price action is curently located in a confluence of a minor horizontal support and the support trendline. The 105.300 area is likely to be the first target of bears. Alternatively, we may see bulls regain their confidence in the early part of the week in an attempt to push price action a bit further northward from its current location, possibly targeting the minor horizontal resistance around the 106.600 area. But such a move is likely to be corrective and we may see a southward turnaround of price action from that area.
On the weekly time frame, price action on EURJPY is experiencing a retracement of the drop from the high of November 2014 to the low of June 2016. Seven weeks ago, a relatively big bearish candlestick kicked off a southward turn around at the 61.8 Fib zone, respecting a resistance trendline (red) from the high of November 2014. After a brief southward move, price action entered a consolidation around the 50 Fib zone which lasted three weeks. Last week, bulls attempted to keep price action in consolidation with a northward move but their attempt was mitigated by bears; this resulted in the printing of a relatively small bearish pinbar which barely inched below the consolidation area. We may expect bulls to attempt another northward pullback in the early part of this week but bears are likely to regain control of price action. The 121.760 area is a likely to be an initial target of bears.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel. The market was in consolidation for much of Monday through Wednesday last week. On Thursday, a big bearish candlestick took price action far below the consolidation area but on Friday bulls resisted furthermore and constrained the bears. A doji-like candlestick was printed as a result. As price action is still within a minor S/R zone, we may see further sideways move or a northward pullback before a bearish continuation.
The USDJPY has kept a southward bearing since January 2018. On the weekly time frame, price action pulled further southward from an area of consolidation which kept it sideways since the the lat week of February 2018. And the candlestick formed last week was strongly bearish. A follow-through this week is likely to target the next support around the 103.400 area.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action is in consolidation and the order flow is apparently in equilibrium. As price action has recently moved just below a minor resistance area around 105.240, we may see a brief northward pullback before a bearish continuation gains further momentum.
Although the market mood on USDJPY is northward, the major technical outlook is still southward. On the H4 time frame, price action is currently around the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the downward swing from the high of March 22, 2018 to the low of the same day. If price action turns around southward in that zone, around the 105.480 area, a likely target of bears is the 104.720 area. Otherwise, we may see price action push further northward toward the major resistance around the 105.570 area. But such a move is likely to be corrective in nature.
If you are tracking XAUUSD (GOLD in USD), realize that we can have further southward move on gold. The technicals on the H4 time frame are synced for further southward move perhaps with an initial target around the 1319.80/1316.80 zone, which may expose the 1304.80 handle in the days ahead. However, as price action is far from the mean, we may have a brief northward pullback before a sustainable bearish momentum. It is important to note that the larger picture (e.g. on W1 tf) has price action operating in an ascending wedge/triangle.
On the monthly time, price action turned southward after a 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of May 2014 to the low of December 2016. The last two months have seen price action on the pair operating in a sideways mode, although with a very wide range (over 300 pips). Current price action is still within a significant resistance zone.
On the weekly time frame, price action is around a resistance zone where it has recently formed high-wave candlesticks (candlesticks with mainly upper shadows). This indicates a likelihood of southward turnaround from the zone. Last week’s candlestick was a bearish pinbar and we may see bears at least test the 1.21540 area. This area is around the low of a failed bullish pinbar formed five weeks ago. An ascending trendline (navy) from the low of April 2017 is acting as support and may be the first target of bears. A breakdown of the trendline on a daily closing basis is likely to be instrumental to a sustained southward momentum.
Price action on AUDUSD is operating in an ascending channel (black) on the monthly time frame. The past two months saw it head southward from near the distal part of the channel. Its present location is near the channel support trendline. Last month, a bearish continuation pin bar was formed around a horizontal support zone and nestled at the 0.76790 area. This portends the likelihood of bears taking price action further southward.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending wedge (red) and has enterd a support zone around the 0.76590 area. Last week Thursday and Friday, bulls attempted to push price action northward but their feeble attempts resulted in the printing of indecision candlesticks. Thus, we may see a period of sideways operation next week before clarity of price action. We may even have a retracement northward to the immediate resistance around 0.77450/0.77760.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action is in consolidation. Bears are testing a support trendline (magenta) and price action printed a pinbar-like candlestick around the trendline toward the close of session on Friday. However, the three bearish candlesticks formed during the last three sessions on Friday failed to breach the bullish candlestick formed during the session preceding them. As last week Friday was a relatively thin trading day, we may not read much to the candlesticks formed. However, the fact that price action is still respecting the support trendline indicates that we have to wait for clarity in the early days of this week. This is more so as price action on the H4 time frame is yet to breach a resistance trendline (blue) from recent highs. Bulls may retest the resistance trendline before they give way to bears.
On the monthly time frame, price action on GBPAUD has reached the 38.2 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of August 2015 to the low of October 2016. The zone is in confluence with the horizontal resistance around the 1.85390 area. It should be noted that price action is operating within a support trendline line (chocolate) and a resistance trendline (red) from the low of March 2013. The most recent price action is located around the resistance trendline and we may expect a retracement southward or some sideways operation.
On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in an ascending wedge formed by the resistance (red) and support (chocolate) trendlines seen on the monthly time frame. A bearish pinbar has formed on the resistance trendline (red) and at the horizontal resistance around the 1.83440 area. A follow through by bears this week is likely to see price action head southward with a potential target around he 1.78180 area in the days ahead. A support trendline (navy) from the low of September 2017 is still in play and, as it is a bit far from the current location of price action, may be a magnet for bears.
The shooting star that formed on the daily time frame on Wednesday last week has been followed up by further bearish candlesticks. However, price action has not broken below the bullish structure earlier created. A break below 1.81420/1.80750 area is likely to trigger further bearish move. Although there are still a few support zones and trendlines to break down the technicals seem to support further southward move.
Price action on the weekly time frame has been on a northward run for quite a while. However, three weeks ago, it hit the 50 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of January 2016 to the low of October 2016. The 61.8 Fib zone appears rather too far and may not be attractive at the moment. An evening star formation appeared to have formed on the weekly time frame during the past two weeks. The bearish pinbar formed last week, particularly at an area in confluence with a horizontal support zone, is likely to be a signal for bears to consider a further southward move. Bears may seek to test the low of the bullish control candlestick formed three weeks ago. The level, around 1.77390, coincides with the 38.2 Fib zone and a horizontal support. The fact that price action is too far from the mean and from an active support trendline (navy) is technically supportive of the likelihood of a southward turnaround; a reversion to the mean or to test the support trendline.
The ‘wicky’-candlestick formation of recent price action on the daily time frame around a resistance zone portends a turnaround southward. The order flow context shows a steady weakness of bullish momentum with the relative sizes of the bullish candlesticks formed since February 2018. It is apparent that the relatively big candlestick formed on March 13 lacked a strong follow through. Bears are likely to want to test the resolve of bulls by pushing price action to the low of that candlestick, around the 1.78490 area. Last week Thursday, price action moved southward and near a micro ascending trendline (red) but then turned slightly northward on Friday. We are likely to see a retest and a possible breakdown of the trendline early this week. That is likely to provide the impetus for a bearish continuation with the possibility of exposing the immediate horizontal support around 1.80830, and then the 1.77590 handle.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel (red). Three price waves have formed in the channel and a fourth has moved southward and in a consolidation mode around channel support. We may expect further move southward to complete the fourth wave and the technicals are in support. A likely target of bears is the horizontal support around the 1.78940 area.
On the monthly time frame, price action on USDJPY has been southward bound for a while, particularly since December 2016 after the 78.6 Fib retracement of the downward swing from the high of June 2015 to the low of June 2016. There was some period of consolidation and a pullback into around the 50 Fib retracement. The three months sideways operation between October and December 2016 was at the 50 Fib retracement zone, and it gave way to a strong bearish turnaround thereafter. Although price action printed an indecision candlestick in March 2018, the technicals on the monthly time frame are synced for further southward move. Apparently bears may be attracted to the origin of the strong bullish rally that happened in November 2016, around 101.180, but that is still a long way off. A more feasible target for bears is likely to be the resistance zone around 103.870.
On the weekly time frame, price action has retraced northward. Last week the bullish candlestick printed inched to the distal part of a resistance zone around the 106.900 area before it was repulsed by bears for a small southward move. Much likely we may see a further struggle between bulls and bears in the early part of this week before a bearish continuation can be expected. Should bulls manage to take price action further northward, much likely briefly, they may target the 106.900/107.140 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a descending trendline from the high of January 8, 2018. Current price action is located at the horizontal support around the 105.130 area. Should price break down the support zone on at least a four-hourly closing basis and flip the zone on a retest, we are likely to have a strong momentum for a southward move. The technicals on the H4 time frame are in favour of bears. The 103.870 area may be attractive to bears as a target.
Although I am bearish on the USDJPY overall until the technicals on the weekly tf turn around, presently the short-term technicals are mixed (ambivalent) but the fundamentals are in favour of a southward move.
Price action on the AUDUSD was on a southward move on the weekly time frame for quite a while. However, since February 2016 it has been operarting in a corrective ascending channel (black). Currently, price action is heading towards channel support after printing a strong bearish candlestick four weeks ago. However, the southward momentum has slowed and there has not been a follow through since; price action has printed three indecision candlesticks since then. As the major technical disposition favours a southward move, we may expect price action to eventually turn southward with momentum but we may have to wait for the consolidation phase to wear out.
The major technicals on the daily time frame support a southward move. A resistance trendline (red) is in play and the impulsive moves are reasonably southward. But the most recent price action is within a consolidation zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). This area is close to the immediate minor horizontal resistance around the 0.77260 area. We may see price action move northward, perhaps to retest the resistance or even the monthly pivot (around 0.77450), before a southward turnaround.
Price action on EURAUD is on the northward mode. On the monthly time frame, it inched towards a resistance zone in March 2018 and by the beginning of April 2018 retraced a bit from the zone. An outer ascending trendline (red) is very much in play. Price action is now respecting an inner ascending trendline (chocolate), an indication of an increased northward momentum. The current candlestick was formed just around the monthly pivot (around 1.59400) and we may see price action move further away from it.
The technicals on the weekly time frame are synced for a northward mode but the market is around a strong resistance zone. Last week printed an indecision candlestick around the monthly pivot (i.e. around 1.59400). As price action is not too far from the mean, we may expect further northward move before a southward pullback. The inner ascending trendline (chocolate) seen on the monthly time frame is still acting as support. But the immediate horizontal resistance is around 1.62360/1.64440 (bound by magenta coloured horizontal lines) and we may see bulls target, and take price action to, that area before any southward pullback.
Price action on the daily time frame is respecting an inner ascending trendline (navy) and the order flow context is largely under the influence of bulls. We may expect further northward move of price action, particularly with the next horizontal resistance around 1.62360/1.64440 exposed.
On the H4 time frame, price action operated in a horizontal channel (magenta) through out last week. The zone had served as an S/R zone on the H4 time frame. Towards the end of session last Friday, price action briefly broke out northward from the zone but bears pushed it back into the channel. We may see bulls make further attempt to take price action northward this week. Such a move is likely to be in tune with the recent technical pattern on this pair. Thus, we may see bulls initially target 1.61890, the top of the last upward swing before being attracted by the resistance around the 1.62360 area.
On the monthly time frame, the downward swing from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016 on the NZDJPY witnessed a 61.8 Fib retracement in January 2017 and consolidated for a while before heading southward in August 2017. However, price action has been constrained in a triangle (black) and largely consolidating. The most recent price action is near the tip of the triangle and in a squeeze, perhaps ready for a breakout.
On the weekly time frame, recent price action is heading northward but within a consolidation zone (magenta). Last week, a bullish candlestick spanned the zone but it has wicks on both ends, an indication of equilibrium of influence between bulls and bears. This zone is also proximal to the 38.2 Fib of the downward swing from the high of December 2014 to the low of June 2016. We may see a further northward move before a southward turnaround. A likely target of bulls is the resistance trendline of the triangle and is likely to be a corrective move. A southward turnaround of price action is likely to target the support trendline, and may expose the 71.900 handle.
On the H4 time frame, a resistance trendline (red) is still in play. Recent price action is sideways around this trendline. However, a counter trendline (black) has been broken down by a southward move. A successful retest of this counter trendline with a flip is likely to give an impetus for a southward continuation. Of course, a successful retest of the main resistance trendline (red) will serve the same purpose. The immediate minor horizontal resistance is around the 78.480 area, which may attract bulls. But we may see bulls struggling to break these barriers to take price action much further northward. Bears are likely to find it easier turning price action southward and may reach a much greater target, perhaps around the 71.900 area.
I am still maintaining a bearish perspective on this pair. Although we may have a northward retracement, the technicals on the monthly and weekly time frames are in support of a southward disposition in the short to medium term.
On the monthly time frame, the candlesticks printed in January and February 2018 were primarily bearish. Price action moved a bit southward from a zone, the 108.436/110.660 area, that has acted as support and resistance for a while in the past. But this move lacks a follow through. In fact, there has been a northward pullback since the beginning of April 2018; which is likely to be reassuring to bulls. However, at the moment the pullbback is only around the 23.6 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of November 2017 to the low of March 2018 and it seems to be a retest of the support that was just traversed southward in the 108.436/110.660 area. This area is in confluence with the 38.2/50 Fib zone. Thus, we may likely see a pullback further northward to that area (bound by magenta coloured lines) for a possible role flip before a southward turnaround. Two ascending trendlines (red) from the low of September 2012 should be watched as they are currently providing a channel for price action.
Price action on the weekly time frame is around a minor resistance in the 107.460 area but is heading to a former major support zone (bound by magenta coloured lines), i.e the 108.436/110.660 area, perhaps being flipped as resistance and there are other barriers ahead. A trendline (red) seen on the monthly time frame may act as resistance. A descending trendline (navy) from the high of November 2017 is still in play and may be a further hindrance to a northward move. Generally, although a northward correction is currently the sentiment, the technicals on the weekly time frame are disposed southward.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel, which is technically a corrective phase of a longer southward trend on the H4 time frame. The 38.2 Fib zone of the recent downward swing on the weekly time frame is about 100 pips above current location of price action and this may be attractive to bulls. In fact, the area is close to the base of the immediate S/R area, around 108.430; an area which price action recently traversed southward and which is open to a retest in order to flip the zone as resistance. Should bulls take price action northward and to that area, a turnaround from there will likely be an impetus for a southward momentum. That northward pullback is likely to give me the entry for a sell trade.
Although I am bearish on this pair, I will stay on the sidelines until the present consolidation of price action is over. I will wait for clarity of price action on at least the H4 time frame.
If you are tracking GBPJPY, realize that technically the pair is on a northward mode. However, we may expect a pullback to an ascending trendline (black) on the D1 time frame or an immediate support on an intraday chart like the H4 time frame.
Although price action on XAUUSD is technically northward, it is presently in a correction (bound in black lines) around the 23.6/32.8 Fib retracement zone of the recent upward swing on the daily time frame. In fact, an intraday triangular pattern (magenta) can be seen on the H4 time frame and there may be a southward pullback to around the 1321.85 before a northward turnaround.
I have decided to stay on the sidelines on many markets because they are sideways, largely. A particular market that can be confusing is the AUDUSD, which is in a complex corrective phase. On the weekly time frame, an ascending channel (red) formed after a swing from the high of June 2014 to the low of January 2016. The channel is now at the 50 Fib zone of its retracement. Price action is bearing southward in a counter channel, a descending channel (chocolate). There is room for further southward move but there is little confidence in a southward momentum. A descending trendlline (black) from recent highs of candlesticks in the main channel is acting as support.
