Since breaking down a support trendline (blue) on the weekly time frame in October 2018, the EURNZD market has continued its bearish tone. Three and two weeks ago, price action was operating within a support zone (1.65650/1.67550) on the weekly time frame – bound by horizontal magenta lines – that has held since November 2017. However, last week, it moved further southwards and now threatening the edge of another support area around 1.63130. Apparently, there is still more bearish sentiment in this market but it seems we are due fo a northward pullback before we can see further significant bearish continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action has formed two impulse waves and is now in a corrective phase. Presently, it has moved below an area of consolidation (bound by horizontal magenta lines) associated with the broken down support zone, 1.65650/1.67550, seen on the weekly time frame. Apparently there is a slow down of southward momentum and we may witness a northward pullback in the early part of this week. Two minor descending trendlines can be seen on the H4 time frame, an outer one (red) and an inner one (black), both of which can act as resistance to a northward pullback of price action.
The GBPAUD continues to consolidate along a multi-year ascending channel (black) on the weekly time frame. Last week, price action tested the channel support but bulls resisted its breakdown. Presently, price action is located at a confluence of the channel support and a minor horizontal support near the 1.73130 area. We may see bears target the more significant horizontal support around 1.71240 if they successfully break the channel support. Otherwise, we may have a northward pullback to the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.77780 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is consolidating along the channel support seen on the weekly time frame. This is a slow down of a southward drive and we may see a pullback to retest a broken down (former) horizontal support. The channel resistance of a minor descending channel (blue) is a likely area that bulls may retest, but the minor horizontal resistance around the 1.75800 may be an alternative. Should price action turn southwards around the 1.75800 area, we may have a momentum for a southward drive. Personally, I will step aside and watch this market for clarity of price action in the first two days of trading this week.
On the monthly time frame, the EURNZD is operating between the horizontal resistance zone around 1.75180 and the horizontal support zone around 1.63130. Presently, price action is near the support zone around 1.63130. But we should be interested in the ascending channel (red) traceable to 2016; which is likely to be influential in the market for quite a while. The breakdown of the horizontal support around 1.63130 is likely to give confidence to bears to target the channel support.
On the weekly time frame, last week, bulls pushed price action northwards in their attempt to retest a horizontal channel (blue) that was broken down two weeks ago but they were hindered by bears. Should bulls fail in their attempt to take price action northwards, we may see a southward continuation. A likely target of bears is the horizontal support around the 1.60760 area.
A simple wave analysis on the daily time frame indicates that price action is in a corrective phase. Much likely we are gong to see a southward continuation after price action has made a northward retracement, perhaps to around either the monthly pivot (1.67473) or the 1.69270 area, the 38.2 Fib retracement of the downward drop from October 8, 2018.
Price action on the H4 time frame reinforces the observation on the daily time frame. It is operating within a descending channel (magenta) and presently disposed northwards. We may see further northward move, albeit temporary, before a southward turnaround. The channel resistance is a potential turnaround area.
On the weekly time frame, price action is respecting two ascending trendlines (black and red) traceable to December 2016. Currently, price action is consolidating around the inner ascending trendline (red)
On the daily time frame, sideways of price action prevail between 1.12810 and 1.14640. Much likely a breakout of the 1.14640 resistance zone on a daily closing basis will lead to a northward momentum, while a breakdown of the support zone around 1.12810 will lead to a southward momentum. We should also note and be interested in the wedge/triangle pattern (magenta) visible on the daily time frame. A breach of either the wedge resistance or the wedge support on a daily closing basis is likely going to yield a feasible trading opportunity.
The GBPUSD market is slightly bearish but still ambivalent. The predominance of ‘top-wick’ candlesticks on the monthly time frame seems to indicate the market’s preference for a southward mood since April 2018. But the southward momentum is questionable. The 1.25900 zone is an natural target of any bearish continuation
A triangular pattern can be seen on the daily time frame (magenta). Recent price action is consolidating around the triangle support but the wicks at both ends of the candlesticks indicate that the market is currently ambivalent. The immediate support area that bears will have to breach is around 1.25900 while a medium-term bear target is naturally around the support in the 1.25530 area.
The H4 time frame shows price action rejecting a resistance area with predominantly top-wicky candlesticks and disposing towards the support of the triangle (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. Very much likely, a breakdown of the triangle support is imminent. Nevertheless, as there is a lack of momentum in the market, we may see further sideways of price action, and even some northward retracement, before that happens.
Here’s an update on the EURNZD. We are likely to have a further northward retracement to a former support zone, probably the 1.66400/1.67130 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines) in the attached charts, before a southward turnaround. I remain bearish EURNZD.
The EURNZD market is still operating in an ascending channel (red) but with some ambivalence owing to lack of momentum. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating around the channel support. Last week, it printed an indecision candlestick that rejected the channel support. Current price action is located in an S/R zone, the 1.65330/1.66830 area.
On the daily time frame, a descending trendline (black) from October 2018 is acting as a resistance. Last week Friday, a bearish pinbar was printed around the trendline at the 1.65350/1.67266 area and we may expect some reaction towards further southward move in the early part of this week. The 1.63380 area is a horizontal support and likely a target of bears. Should bulls manage to take price action further northward, they may face resistance around the 1.67900 area.
I remain bearish EURNZD. Last week, I was looking for a bearish setup on a daily closing basis around the 1.66400/1.67420 area. This came last week Friday. However, I rarely rely on a Friday setup and will have to wait for the market to show its hand on Monday. I expect some northward pullback before another bearish setup.
The GBPNZD is a market that attracts my attention with a potential breakdown of an ascending trendline (red) traceable to 2016 on the monthly time frame. The bearish candlestick printed in November 2018 broke down the trendline, though not significantly.
On the weekly time frame, price action is operating on an ascending channel (red) associated with the ascending trendline seen on the monthly time frame. The channel support can be seen to extend to a lower trendline (blue) which indicates that price action is yet to break out of the trendline seen on the monthly time frame but is hovering around it. Last week, the market printed an indecision candlestick, akin to a long-tailed doji around the channel support. I expect some sideways of price action in the area in the early part of this week. Alternatively, we may see a northward retracement – which is likely to be temporary in nature, before a southward turnaround. The 1.86240 area is a likely resistance to such a northward retracement, while the 1.80250 area is an immediate horizontal support, and may be attractive as a target for bears.
The daily time frame shows recent price action disposing for a northward retracement. Such a retracement often finds a turnaround in a recently breached horizontal support area. A likely one is the 1.86230/1.87980 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines).
The USDCAD market is generally disposed northward. On the monthly time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (red) traceable to September 2017. Although price action is presently located around the 61.8 Fib zone of a multi-year drop which started in January 2002, it seems there is still much room for further northward move.
On the weekly time frame, price action is bearing northwards but presently located around a resistance zone, the 1.34630 area. The major resistance is around the 1. 37750 area while the 1.27780 area is a horizontal support.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in an ascending channel (blue). Presently it is disposed northward in the channel, operating within a minor ascending channel (magenta). Technically, we may see a southward pullback towards a value area, but the general market disposition is northwards.
The GBPUSD market has been yo-yo for quite a while; however it is slightly favorable to bears. On the weekly time frame, recent price action is operating with a bearish mode in a descending channel (black).
On the daily time frame, price action is operating around the channel support but with a slight northward disposition. Based on recent candlestick patterns on the daily time frame, we will likely see a brief northward move before a southward turnaround. The congestion area around 1.27290/1.28700 (bound by magenta horizontal lines) is likely to see a southward turnaround of price action.
The H4 time frame shows price action respecting a descending trendline (blue). We may expect bulls to retest the trendline or the broken down support around 1.27900 for a role flip.
The USDCAD market is still on the northward mode. The most recent ascending trendline (blue) on the weekly time frame is acute and is far further away beyond a major ascending trendline (red) and an inner one (black), indicating an increase in bullish price action. Last week, a strong bullish candlestick was printed on the weekly time frame and price action has moved further away from the mean area. Therefore, we may have a southward pullback to a former area of value, perhaps the breached horizontal resistance around 1.33950/1.35600 (bound by magenta horizontal lines).
Technically, the daily time frame still favours a bullish mode of price action. Based on candlestick patterns on the daily time frame since October 2, 2018, it is likely that price action will make a southward pullback to an area of value before a northward continuation.
The GBPUSD market printed an inside candlestick on the weekly time frame last week at a support zone, indicating a lack of bearish momentum. It is likely that we have sideways of price action, or even a brief pullback, in the area this week, or at least in the early part of the week.
A pennant formation (magenta) can be seen on the daily time frame. Technically, price action is disposed southwards, but the momentum seems to be weak. A breakdown of the pennant is likely to give impetus to a bearish continuation. However, there are two nearby horizontal supports (the 1.25870 and 1.24780 areas) which bears will need to first contend with.
The EURUSD market is still ambivalent, consolidating in a horizontal channel on the weekly time frame. The channel aligns with a resistance zone (1.12780/1.14470). Therefore, the top, long-tail candlestick printed last week is not seen by me as a bearish pinbar. In fact, I expect a northward pullback in the early part of the week before a southward move. A descending trendline (black) traceable to February 2018 is likely to act as resistance, while an ascending trendline (red) from the low of August 2017 can act as support. A break of the horizontal support around 1.12350 is likely to lead to a strong southward continuation.
On the daily time frame, price action on EURUSD is operating in a horizontal channel (bound by magenta horizontal lines) spanning about 200 pips. The technical pressure is favorable to bears but it will require a further northward pullback for any reasonably favorable bearish setup to develop.
I see that there is still possibility for market to test 1.1220 support line once again. There is a possibility for that to occur during next week, considering release of data on US CPI and retail spending. On the opposite side, I see also resistance at 1.1450.
This is a very good strategy you got planned out, but I think your results my just as well encourage others on their trades.
Quick question though; how do you manage all three accounts?
I really do not understand the question you were asking, may be it was about an old post. At any rate, top-down technical analysis when adopted for swing trading could have consistently profitable trading outcomes.
The northward retracement of price action on the weekly time frame around the multi-year ascending trendline (red) two weeks ago, continued last week. Technically, bulls are positioned to still take price action further northward and may expose the 1.16170 area before a southward turnaround. The 61.8/78.6 Fib retracdement zone of the most recent downward swing on the weekly time frame is located around the 1.16170/1.16830 area and may be a significant area to watch should a bearish setup develop there.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating within an ascending channel (magenta). For much of last week, it has been constrained by a descending trendline (DarkGoldenrod) from recent highs. However, technicals still favour bulls to move price action beyond the trendline. A natural target of bulls is likely to be around the channel resistance.
Since November 2018, price action on GBPUSD on the weekly time frame has been operating and constrained between an outer (red) and an inner (black) ascending trendlines traceable to January 2017. Presently, it is located around a minor horizontal resistance but we may see bulls take it further northward to test the inner ascending trendline (black) or the horizontal resistance around the 1.29670 area.
The H4 time frame shows a GBPUSD market in consolidation. However, the technical pattern on the H4 time frame indicates that we may have some northward move to an area of value, usually a brokendown horizontal support, before any bearish turnaround. The 1.28000/1.29670 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) may yield itself for such a retracement and subsequent bearish turnaround. However, a significant southward breakdown of the mini ascending trendline (blue) on the H4 time frame is likely to produce a feasible sell trading opportunity. Such a breakdown may be in the shape of a bearish break on an H4 closing basis followed by a northward retest yielding a further bearish rejection of the trendline.
The EURJPY market experienced a strong bearish move in the latter part of last week. The weekly time frame printed a bearish candlestick with over 800 pips of southward move to the 117.850 support zone before a northward retracement of around 600 pips, leaving a long lower shadow. Price action is currently located in a breached support zone. Giving the swiftness of the northward retracement, we are likely going to see a retest of the 117.850 area in the next few days. Any attempt by bulls to take price action further northward is likely to meet resistance in the form of a descending trendline (magenta) from August 2018.
On the daily time frame, last week Wednesday, price action moved southward of a horizontal channel (gold), making over 700 bearish pips before bulls seized the initiative on Friday to move it back northward and about 140 pips to the channel support. Much likely we may see bulls take price action a bit further northward, perhaps to retest the channel support before any southward turnaround.
Price action on the H4 time frame is disposed northwards, respecting a minor ascending trendline (blue). Technically, the move appears to be corrective in nature. A break of the ascending trendline (blue) by price action on a 4-hourly basis plus its retest producing a bearish setup is likely to provide a feasible sell trading opportunity. On a short-term basis, bulls are favoured to control price action, but on a medium-term basis, bears are technically favoured.
