USDJPY Weekly Technical Outllook
The USDJPY has been consolidating for quite a while. On the monthly time frame, price action is operating in a triangular pattern (YellowGreen) and is being constrained towards the tip/apex of the triangle. In December 2018, bears took price action southward for over 500 pips.A follow-through was initiated in January 2019 when the flash crash took price action southward for over 500 pips. Although price action has retraced northwards, the technical pattern, looking left, indicate that bears are likely to make a further southward push. A break of the triangle support may see bears target the horizontal support around the 103.320 area (magenta).
The weekly time frame, shows a USDJPY market in a consolidation mode, which is likely corrective; apparently the impulse is towards the south. From basic wave analysis, we are seeing a complex correction which will likely give way to a southward continuation.
On the daily time frame, presently bulls are taking price action northwards.The horizontal resistance around 110.380/111.130 (bound by horizontal black lines) may be a natural target of bulls. However, a bearish setup in the area on a daily closing basis is likely to be followed up by a southward continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action is heading northwards and apparently in a correction, from a technical point of view. A descending trendline (navy) is likely to be active as resistance. Also, we should be aware of the ascending trendline (red) from recent lows, which will have to be broken down by bears to sustain a southward momentum.
As a swing trader, I maintain a bearish outlook on USDJPY.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.