USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The bullish candlestick which formed on the monthly time frame in November 2016, has in the main, been a reference or controlling candlestick for much of subsequent price action. The flash crash last week saw price action teasing the lower part of this same candlestick; much likely we may see a retest during the remaining part of this month. I am bearish USDJPY.
On the weekly time frame, the 104.050/114.230 zone has clearly provided a channel within which much of price action has operated since 2017. Within the channel, presently price action is largely disposed southwards. The long-tailed bearish candlestick formed two weeks ago is likely to be an opportunity for reprogramming price action to retest a value area northward and we may see a southward continuation this week.
The technicals on the daily time frame are favourable for a bearish continuation after a brief northward retracement. Thus, in the short term, price action is likely to head northwards. It may then yield to a southward turnaround at an area of value, e.g. a pivot area, resistance zone or within the short MAs. The monthly pivot, around 110.900, is likely an area to watch for such a southward turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.