EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURNZD market is largely ambivalent. The bearish mode of November 2018 was negated by the bullish operation of price action in December 2018, which itself has been sidelined by the bearish print on the monthly time frame in January 2019. Are we going to see a bullish operation in early February 2019? We should note that the Fibonacci pattern of the downward decline from the peak of August 2018 to the trough of February 2017 was at 78.6 Fib in October 2018. Therefore, we may expect a southward continuation at some point, particularly should price action break below the 1.63600 handle, which has held for quite a while.
On the weekly time frame, price action broke below an ascending trendline (red) traceable to February 2017 and is now respecting an emerging descending trendline (black) from recent highs. The market is operating around a weekly reaction zone and the technicals are disposed in favour of bears. However, there is limited southward momentum and we may have to wait for the early part of this week to see which direction the market decides to build momentum.
On the daily time frame, the long doji candlestick printed on January 3, 2019 has been a controlling influence for quite a while. Price action significantly broke below its low on January 30, 2019. However, bulls took price action northwards for some distance last week Friday. We may see them retest the broken lower part of the January 3, 2019 candlestick and, perhaps, inch further northwards towards the nearby monthly pivot (1.67898) in the early part of this week.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The monthly candlestick print of GBPNZD in January 2019 was an indecision one. This should be seen in the context of the bullish candlestick printed in December 2018 and the fact that the candlestick printed in February 2019 was around a monthly support zone and in confluence with the monthly pivot. A congestion area is also nearby and the technicals are neutral. Therefore, it is likely that we see some limited momentum, or a sideways of price action, on the GBPNZD at the early part of this week.
Last week, price action printed a bearish candlestick on the weekly time frame. We should note that this came about after a retest of an ascending trendline (red) traceable to February 2017 which had been breached southward in November 2018. However, the candlestick printed last week has a longer wick at the bottom than the top, meaning that bulls were struggling with bears for market control. Besides, it is located at a monthly support zone. So, we may not have momentum for a southward continuation in the early part of this week.
The H4 time frame shows a market operating in an ascending channel (black). This is apparently a corrective operation in the context of downward impulse trend. In the last three sessions on Friday, bulls managed to take price action further northward of the breached channel support. However, we should note the horizontal resistance around 1.91000, which may hinder momentum of any bullish drive. However, a break of the channel support is likely to meet some challenge around the 1.86100 area.
I am bearish GBPNZD but will wait for the market to show clarity of its intent after Monday or Tuesday. A sell trading setup around the 1.91000 area will pique my interest. Also, a breakout of price action from the channel support on a daily closing basis will equally be welcoming. At any rate, I am not entering the market right away.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
CADJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The CADJPY market has been operating in a multi-year triangle (red) on the monthly time frame. Most recently, the market has moved further southward to respect a lower descending trendline (black) which gives a price action squeeze within a smaller triangle. In January 2019, the market printed a bullish pinbar on the triangle support but a reaction zone (a horizontal resistance) is about 100 pips away from current location of price action.
On the weekly time frame, recent order flow has been under the control of bulls but the market printed an ambivalent candlestick last week. Nevertheless, bulls are still favoured to be influential this week. But how far they can go is the issue. A congestion zone is around the 83.890/84.900 area and may be a challenge for bulls to overcome. Two descending trendlines (black and blue) traceable to the high of June 2015 may be more significant as a resistance zone, particularly should bulls breach northwards the ascending trendline (magenta) from the low of September 2016. But this trendline (magenta) is the support of a broken down ascending channel (magenta) and is amenable to a role flip (a southward turnaround) should price action retest it.
On the daily time frame, last week Monday, price action breached northwards a descending trendline (Yellow Green) from recent highs and then snapped back below it on Thursday to respect it. Technically, the 82.900/83.880 zone is a major resistance zone and we should watch how price action handles the area in the early part of this week. The area is also in confluence with the 68.2 Fib retracement of the most recent swing down on the daily time frame, neglecting the recent false flash crash.
The H4 time frame shows a market in consolidation but the impulse trend and order flow context favour bears. The space between two descending trendlines (Navy and YellowGreen) from recent highs is acting as a resistance zone and the technicals favour a southward move. However, we may see a brief pullback to the resistance zone within the trendlines or around 83.800.
I am favourably disposed towards bears on this market but I will wait for a northward pullback to an area of value before looking for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market is disposed northwards. On the weekly time frame, the pinbar printed last week favours a bullish continuation. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1358.00 area, an area that has held on a multi-year basis.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline traceable to November 2018; an ascending channel (red) appears to be in operation on the basis of the trendline. Technically, bulls are still favoured to take the market further northwards. However, we may see a brief pullback later in the week, particularly should price action hit the channel resistance or the minor horizontal resistance around the 1329.00 area.
I still hold a bullish bias on XAUUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The monthly time frame shows a EURNZD market predominantly bearish in disposition and presently operating in a descending channel (blue).
On the weekly time frame, six weeks ago, the market experienced a 68.2 Fib retracement of the down-leg from the high of September 2018 to the low of December 2018. However, there has not been much southward follow-through. Last week, bulls took price action further northwards. The 38.2 Fib retracement area is just a few pips northward and in confluence with the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.69940. Much likely, a southward turnaround can be expected in that area. The 1.61600 area is a horizontal support and may be a natural target of a southward move.
Presently price action on the H4 time frame is in consolidation in a minor horizontal resistance area. But the technicals are slightly disposed for some northward move, perhaps to the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.69100/1.69600 zone. As market does what it likes, we may see bulls take this drive to the 1.69900 area. Nothing will make me hazard trading the northward retracement as I expect a southward turnaround after a northward retracement to an area of value.
While I am bearish on this market, I will step aside in the interim.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPNZD market is in a consolidation mode. On the weekly time frame, presently price action is located around a congestion area after a northward push resulting from the the formation of a morning star pattern nine weeks ago. Last week, a bullish candlestick was printed in opposition to the bearish print two weeks ago. The immediate resistance is around the 1.93980 area and may be a natural target of bulls.
In the context of a descending trend, price action on the daily time frame is presently operating in an ascending channel (red) and bulls are favoured to take the market further northwards, perhaps targeting the immediate horizontal resistance around 1.93980. Looking left, a similar pattern based on an earlier ascending channel (blue) could be seen. Technically, a northward move is still favoured but we are likely to see a southward turnaround soon, much likely before the end of this week.
On the H4 time frame, the massive doji print on January 3, 2019 seems to have mapped a span/range (bound in horizontal magenta lines) of operation for subsequent price action. Last week, price action tested the high of the doji-formation and retraced. A sideways operation took place thereafter and the candlestick print in the last session on Friday saw a northward move towards the high. We may see bulls follow up on the northward move in the early part of this week, and perhaps succeed in taking out the high of the doji-pattern, targeting the horizontal resistance around the 1.93980 area.
Technically, I will hold a bullish bias on this market in the short term. On a medium-term basis, I see a southward orientation of the GBPNZD market.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The technicals on the weekly time frame of the EURJPY market are in favour of bears. However, a support trendline (red) traceable to July 2012 is still holding after a temporary breach by the recent flash crash. Presently, price action has formed a mini consolidation channel (black) heading northwards. Technically, this has the potential to favour bears but there is little southward momentum presently. Much likely, we may see a further sideways operation of price action in the early part of this week or even a brief northward move before a southward drive. The 125.125/126.520 area is a horizontal resistance zone and may be amenable to a role flip.
The most recent price action is in sideways operation on the daily time frame, equivalent to the consolidation channel (black) seen on the weekly time frame. The technicals are ambivalent and we may see some sideways operation in the market or even a northward pullback. Much likely a retest of the descending trendline (blue) or an area of value around the immediate horizontal resistance (125.150/125.800) is in the offing. A bearish setup in the area on a daily closing basis is likely to offer a feasible trade for a southward drive. This may expose the 122.300 handle.
I am bearish EURJPY.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Simply trade what you see on your charts. Technically, EURUSD is still slightly bearish.
Trade safe and prosper.
AUDNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
AUDNZD is a pair that is not yet on my main watch list. Last week, I decided to add a few pairs on my list of probable pairs to watch, and it includes AUDNZD. I will be tracking its behaviour over the next few weeks before deciding whether or not to place it on my main watch list.
The AUDNZD market is slightly bearish. On the weekly time frame, the bearish turnaround that occurred four weeks ago did not have much follow-through until last week when price action printed a bearish continuation candlestick. However, its lower shadow indicated that bulls were still giving bears some fight. Presently, price action is located around a support zone which witnessed a bounce of the indecision candlestick printed two weeks ago. How price action handles the zone in the early part of this week is crucial.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (blue). It is presently located at a support zone around the 1.03980 area. Last week Friday, bulls attempted to move price further northwards but their attempt was futile, resulting in the printing of an indecision candlestick. Should bulls succeed in taking price action northwards in the early part of this week, it will largely be temporary in nature; the 1.04750 area is likely to act as a horizontal barrier to any northward momentum. Nevertheless, a northward pullback to an area of value will be seen by me as a good opportunity to look for a sell-trading setup.
On the H4 time frame, last week Tuesday, price action witnessed a 68.2 Fib retracement of the southward drop from the high of January 21, 2019 to the low of February 6, 2019. Based on the preceding patterns of price action on the H4 time frame, we may see another pullback, perhaps to retest the broken down (or former) horizontal support around the 1.04630 area.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
CHFJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The CHFJPY is another pair I now have on the list of probable pairs I am tracking for the next few weeks.
The CHFJPY is a market in consolidation. A simple wave analysis on the weekly time frame shows that the impulse trend is southward but the market has been in a corrective mode for quite a long while. The 117.900 area has held as the channel resistance for quite some time, while the 108.460 area has been reacting as a major channel support. In the last four weeks, price action has been consolidating near the major channel support as attempts by bears to break down the 108.460 area have not materialized. Nevertheless, the technicals are slightly in support of bears. And this should be seen in the context of the dominant trend, which is southwards.
Price action on the daily time frame is presently located at a significant horizontal support (the 109.800 area). The technicals are slightly bearish but price action is mainly ambivalent. Thus, there is no momentum for a southward continuation yet. Any bearish move is likely to initially target the 108.650 area before trying to expose the 107.280 handle.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market has maintained a bullish tone for quite some time. This is likely to continue until bulls hit the 1365.70 barrier. Of course, that is still a long way to go and we will have the necessary southward corrective moves along the way.
On the weekly time frame, the candlesticks printed since the past three weeks have been bullish, but a northward momentum is lacking. Presently, price action is located in an area that has seen congestion in the past and we may expect a bullish breakout from the area to lead to an increase in a northward momentum. The 1338.00 area is the immediate horizontal resistance and, technically, a natural target of such a bullish move.
On the daily time frame, price action is respecting an ascending trendline (purple) from the low of November 14, 2018. The bullish candlestick printed last week Friday was a breakout from a minor area of consolidation and we may see a bullish follow-through in the early part of this week.
On the H4 time frame, the technical patterns show a market still disposed for a northward continuation. Elementary wave analysis indicates that as the recent bullish move from 1311.90 is a move from a corrective phase, we may see further impulsive move northward, more so with a lot of space to move into shown on the weekly time frame. Nevertheless, as the market decides what it prints, we should watch how bulls perform in the early part of this week, particularly around the 1330.00 area, the minor horizontal resistance on the H4 time frame.
I remain bullish XAUUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market has been sideways for quite a while. The bearish candlestick printed on the weekly time frame two weeks ago did not have significant follow-through last week as the candlestick printed by the market ended with a bullish flavour. Presently, market players are operating around a horizontal support zone. Just below the zone, about 120 pips southward, is another congestion area around 1.10910. That level is likely to be an initial target of any bearish move. Alternatively, a northward move is likely to see bulls target the 1.14340 area, the high of the bearish move two weeks ago and a confluence of the monthly pivot. By extension, we may see bulls retest the broken-down ascending trendline (black) traceable to October 2016. However, a bearish breach of the outer ascending trendline (red) traceable to the low of October 2016 may start the transition of the sideways market to a bearish one.
The daily time frame shows a market operating in a descending channel (blue). Price action has completed two downward waves within the channel and is disposed southwards. However, it is in a consolidation phase and bulls were largely in control last week Thursday. We may see a northward pullback in the early part of this week, but bulls are not likely to have much space for a northward move. The technicals favour a southward turnaround.
The H4 time frame shows that bulls are presently taking price action on a northward retracement. However, there are a few barriers which they must contend with. A significant barrier is around the horizontal resistance spanned by 1.13480/1.13720. A southward turnaround after the northward pullback is likely to give a much-desired momentum to a bearish continuation. I will be looking for a bearish setup at an area of value, say around 1.13850, which is near the immediate horizontal resistance.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
The CHFJPY is still in a consolidating phase around a significant zone that has held as an S/R level for quite a while. However, a break below the 108.780 level on a daily closing basis is likely to give impetus to a bearish continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
1 Like
Price action on the GBPUSD has just turned southwards from the 78.6/61.8 fib retracement zone of the drop from the high of January 2019 (1.32150) to the current low of February 2019 (1.27715). Given the bearish candlesticks of the last two days in the area (or the topping formation on the H4 tf), we may see a further southward move.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
AUDNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUDNZD market continued a southward disposition after a pullback a few weeks back. On the weekly time frame, a long-upper tailed doji was printed last week, and portends a continuation of the big bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. The technicals are in favour of bears. Should bears manage to sustain their influence in the market this week, we may see them target the 1.02635 area. Alternatively, a bullish intervention is likely to see a retracement to a value area, such as the 1.04835 area – the high of the long-upper tailed doji printed last week.
On the daily time frame, price action is operating in a descending channel (blue). Basically, there was a sideways operation in the latter part of the week but the bearish pinbar printed on Friday was a follow-up to the slightly bearish candlestick printed on Thursday. This pinbar was printed at a minor support zone on the daily time frame. But as a significant support zone, around 1.03650, is less than 30 pips away, we may see some sideways of price action in the early part of this week, before a bearish continuation.
On the H4 time frame, the market has experienced a 61.8 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of February 13, 2018 to the low of February 14, 2019. Price action has breached southward a mini support trendline (magenta) and we may see a further southward move should bears maintain their influence in the early part of this week.
I am bearish AUDNZD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The XAUUSD market has disposed with a positive tone for quite a while. However, the northward momentum seems to be waning. On the weekly time frame, price action was sideways for much of this month until last week when a bullish candlestick took the market a bit further northward towards the immediate horizontal resistance (i.e. the 1347.00/1357.00 area) but was pulled back by bears. The bullish candlestick printed was ultimately in favour of bears, being a bearish pinbar. The nature of the pinbar portends the likelihood of a southward turnaround. However, how far such a move would be is a matter for the market to decide. But realistically, we can expect a brief northward move before a bearish turnaround.
A morning star formation appeared on the daily time frame after the Thursday session. Technically this is a bearish setup, particularly as it formed near a horizontal resistance zone that has held for quite a long while. Last Friday, bulls attempted to take price action northward but the attempt was checkmated by bears, resulting in the printing of a bearish pinbar. Besides, the technicals indicate a waning of a bullish momentum. However, as price action is still respecting a support trendline (red) traceable to November 2018, we may have to wait for a bearish breakdown of the trendline on a daily closing basis before having confidence in a southward turnaround.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame favours bears. A minor resistance trendline (black) from recent highs is being respected. During the penultimate session last week Friday, price action retraced towards a minor horizontal resistance zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) but the candlestick printed ended up being a bearish pinbar. This was followed up by bears in the last session with the printing of a bearish continuation candlestick. However, the fact that the candlestick printed has a lower shadow indicates that bulls were still exerting some influence. Much likely, we may see a brief bullish move in the early part of this week, but, technically, bears are favoured to drive price action to at least retest the support trendline (red) traceable to November 2018.
I am bearish XAUUSD on a short-term basis.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
On the weekly time frame, price action on the EURNZD market has moved southward of the consolidation around the 1.66570 area. Last week, the market printed a bearish pinbar in the area but the low of the bearish candlestick printed a week earlier was not breached. The immediate horizontal support is around the 1.62920 area and may be an initial target of bears.
On the daily time frame, price action is hugging the descending zone of two resistance trendlines (blue and red) traceable to October 8, 2018. A topping formation is predominant in the zone and a strong bearish candlestick rejected the zone last Friday. We may see price action being bearish this week.
On the H4 time frame, price action is presently located at a minor horizontal support and respecting a micro support trendline from recent lows. A breakdown of the support trendline on a daily closing basis is likely to give impetus to a bearish continuation. This is technically supported by the dominant wave patterns on the H4 time frame.
I am bearish EURNZD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market is still in a consolidation mode. The horizontal channel spanning 1.12640 and 1.14750 is still in place. Last week, a small bullish candlestick was printed at the channel support but the wicks on both ends suggest that the market is still ambivalent. The fact that there was little follow-through of the bullish pinbar printed two weeks ago should also be noted. Technically, we may have a sideways of price action or a brief northward retracement in the early part of this week. A break below the 1.12600 area is likely to instigate a southward momentum. Such a move is likely to target the horizontal support around the 1.11200 area.
On the daily time frame, the market is presently in a sideways operation in a broken-down support zone around 1.13390. The technicals are ambivalent.
The H4 time frame shows a EURUSD market in a retracement. In the early part of last week, price action saw a 50 Fib retracement of the drop from the high of January 31, 2019 to the low of February 15, 2019. It is now in sideways operation around the 38.2 Fib zone. A pennant formation (magenta) is apparent on the H4 time frame and a breakdown of the pennant is likely to result in a southward continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
EURGBP Weekly Technical Outlook
On the weekly time frame, the EURGBP market has been sideways for quite a long while; operating in a horizontal channel spanning 0.904140/0.87020. Last week a bearish candlestick printed by the market breached the channel support. However, the long-lower tail of the candlestick indicated that bulls were still influential in the market. Should bulls succeed in hindering bears, we may expect them to push price action northward to retest the resistance trendline (black) traceable to December 2018.
On the daily time frame, price action moved below the channel support (0.87020) seen on the weekly time frame and retraced into within 38.2 Fib zone to retest a former horizontal support around 0.88180. Thereafter it disposed southwards for much of last week. However, on Thursday and Friday last week, bulls seized the initiative to push price further northwards, but the attempt lacked momentum. We may see them attempt to take price action further northwards in the early part of this week; the broken-down channel support around 0.87040 is likely to be a target.
On the H4 time frame, after price action breached southwards a upward sloping channel (red), it is now respecting a descending channel black). Price action is now disposed northward around the channel resistance. In the last two sessions on Friday, price action was sideways near a minor horizontal resistance. Any attempt by bulls to take price action northwards is likely to meet with resistance around the monthly pivot (0.86465).
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPJPY has disposed positively since January 2019 after printing a hammer candlestick. On the weekly time frame, price action is now located around an S/R zone within a horizontal channel (bound by horizontal purple lines) in which price action has been operating since February 2017. Last week, the market printed a bullish continuation candlestick. However, the upper shadow of the print is an indication that bulls are not fully in control.
The daily time frame shows a GBPJPY market disposed positively. However, the indecision candlesticks printed last week Thursday and Friday indicate that the bullish momentum is waning as price action approaches a significant resistance zone around the 149.000 area. Technically, bulls are still favoured to take price action further northwards.
On the H4 time frame, the market is disposed northward, but the bearish candlesticks printed recently indicate that the bullish momentum is weakening. We may see bears take price action a bit southward in the early part of this week. A support trendline (red) is still in play.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
