The XAUUSD market still disposes positively. However, there is a decline in bullish momentum, and we may see further bearish correction in the days ahead. Last week, price action printed a fairly bullish candlestick on the weekly time frame that showed that bears were giving bulls a good fight for market control.
On the daily time frame, price action has broken above a rising channel (blue). A long candlestick printed on Tuesday is largely ambivalent even though it had a bearish tone; it has been influencing subsequent prints as a master candlestick: None of the subsequent candlesticks has breached either its low or high. Presently, price action is located just below the multi-year horizontal resistance around the 1525 zone. Given the difficulty of bulls to break out of the zone, we may see a southward correction before any further significant bullish drive.
GBPCAD price action on the weekly time frame is still mainly disposed southwards. But last week the market printed a bullish candlestick that tried to take out the high of the ‘long-tailed’ inverted hammer bearish candlestick printed a week ago. This is indicative of a decline in bearish momentum as price action entered a multi-year horizontal support around the 1.59130 area.
Recent price operation on the daily time frame is disposed northwards but the major technical outlook still favours bears. We may have a retracement to an area of value such as the 1.61340/1.62660 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before a southward continuation.
The GBPUSD market printed a bullish candlestick on the weekly time frame last week. The print was opposite to the bearish candlestick printed a week earlier, resulting in a piercing formation. This is in a multi-year horizontal support zone; the 1.20860 area. The area was last visited in March 2017. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.22130 area, which is proximal to the high of the bearish candlestick printed a week ago. This is a few pips above the bullish candlestick printed last week and very much within reach of any bullish move. Such a move is likely to expose the 1.23460 horizontal resistance, which adjoins the monthly pivot.
The H4 time frame shows recent price action largely ambivalent as the candlesticks are relatively even between bulls and bears. The fact that the market operation is at a significant horizontal support area on the weekly time frame indicates that we may see some struggle between bulls and bears before a breakdown of the zone. Although the technicals and market structure still favour bears, we may see a retracement or sideways of price action before any southward continuation.
The EURUSD market is still in a sideways mode. On the weekly time frame, price action has been ranging in the 1.12050/1.10760 horizontal zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) for the past four weeks. Presently, price operation is located at the lower part of the range. A southward mode may kick in upon the breakdown of the 1.10270 extension area, leading to bears targeting the 1.08930 multi-year support zone.
On the daily time frame, price action is rejecting the 1.10760 horizontal support. Should bulls seize the initiative in the early part of this week, we may see a northward pullback.
The H4 time frame shows price action operating in a falling channel (blue) with a possible extension to a falling trendline (magenta). Presently, price action has moved away from the channel support trendline. The candlestick printed in the last two sessions on Friday favoured a bullish thrust towards the channel resistance trendline.
Technicals on the XAUUSD weekly time frame still favour a bullish market mode. The candlesticks are predominantly bullish and the momentum for a positive move has been strong. Technically, any negative move will be corrective in nature.
On the H4 time frame, the 1531.95 area has held as a horizontal resistance. Presently, price action is located in the area. In fact, the 1485.10/1531.95 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) represents a range for a seesaw of price action. This represents a difficulty of bulls to maintain their momentum and we may see a negative move from the current location of price action. Technically, such a southward move is likely a corrective move. Basically, we may see a bearish move in the early part of this week.
Price action on the GBPCHF market broke down a significant horizontal channel on the weekly time frame, the 1.34400/1.22620 range (bound by blue magenta horizontal lines), four weeks ago. The bullish candlesticks printed in the last two weeks indicate that bulls are attempting a revisit to the broken-down area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within a rising channel (magenta). This is in line with the observation on the weekly time frame that bulls are attempting a revisit of the support area of the horizontal channel (blue) broken down four weeks ago. The technicals favour further bullish move in the short term.
Price action broke down the 1.7780/1.66490 horizontal channel (bound by magenta horizontal lines) on the weekly time frame eight weeks ago for a southward continuation. But since market operation entered the horizontal support around the 1.58970 area three weeks ago, bulls have seized the initiative and the market printed bullish candlesticks in the past two weeks. Presently, price action is located at a horizontal resistance around the 1.63590 area. A bullish follow-through is likely to see further northward price breaches.
Technicals on the daily time frame support a northward retracement of price action in the short-term. The 1.64350 area may be attractive as a value area, and its breach northwards may lead to a retest of the broken-down horizontal channel (magenta) support around 1.66490 before a southward turn around.
AUDUSD price action is operating in a falling channel (magenta) on the weekly time frame. Four weeks ago, price action broke down a mini rising channel (blue) where it has consolidated for several weeks. However, since then, there has been limited bearish follow-through. The last three weeks have seen the market printing ambivalent candlesticks as price action moves into a horizontal support zone, the 0.66620 area. This indicates that bears are not in full control of the market.
On the daily time frame, price action is presently consolidating along a horizonal channel (lime). This is likely a bottoming mode in a horizontal support area; how price action handles the area in the early part of this week should be watched.
The GBPUSD market printed consecutive bullish candlesticks on the weekly time frame in the past two weeks just after price action entered a significant horizontal support zone around the 1.19980 area. Price action is presently located around a horizontal resistance area, which may witness some sideways operation in the early part of this week. Should bulls successfully breach the resistance, the 1.24250 area is likely to be next barrier for bulls to handle.
A falling channel (blue) is in operation on the daily time frame. Presently, bulls are taking price operation northwards within the channel. But they are likely to face a few barriers; for example, the monthly pivot around 1.23270, which adjoins a minor horizontal resistance; and then the channel resistance trendline. At any rate, the technicals support a northward move in the short term; but in the medium term, bears will be poised for a southward continuation.
I did not anticipate the gap up of the XAUUSD on this week’s open but I had the resistance zone the price action penetrated identified on my trading chart. Now that the gap has been filled, I am looking for a decline in bullish momentum. If the today’s daily close did not take out the high of the inverted hammer printed yesterday at the 1540 resistance zone, a sell trading opportunity with a good R:R is feasible.
It is important to remember that the price action broke out of the 1480/1530 horizontal range/channel that was identified in the post I made on this thread on Sunday. If there is a bearish print on an H4 closing basis around the 1530 channel resistance, we may have a good basis for a sell trade.
Based on my swing-trading system, I will be looking for a GBPUSD sell trading opportunity at the 1.24990/1.23900 zone (bound by black horizontal lines in the attached D1 chart) if price action gives a bearish setup there on a 4H closing basis.
The Silver/USD market printed a relatively big bullish candlestick in August 2019 that broke out of a consolidation zone within which it has operated since August 2018. Presently, market operation has entered a resistance zone which was rejected in September 2017.
There is a strong bullish influence of the market on the weekly time frame and the technicals are in support. Of course, we can expect a southward pullback in correction, particularly as price action has moved too far from the mean and is presently located at a horizontal resistance.
On the H4 time frame, the technicals still favour bulls, but the momentum is weakening. We may see a bearish corrective move upon the breakdown of a minor rising trendline (blue) from the low of August 23. However, as long as the longer rising trendline (red) from the low of July 9, 2019 is intact on a daily closing basis, we can expect bulls to maintain market control.
On the monthly time frame, GBPCAD market operation is presently in a support zone which was rejected in October 2017. This zone is some pips above another support zone which the market rejected in October 2016, and may be attractive to bears. Furthermore, it should be noted that market operation rallied northwards from a congestion zone in September 2013 and its lower part, which is around 1.54930, may be a long-term target of bears.
On the weekly time frame, the market has been trading above a horizontal channel, 1.58820/1.66570, (bound by magenta horizontal lines) since mid-November 2017. In mid-June 2019, price action returned to the area and continued southwards within the channel. Since then there has been a bearish disposition of market in the zone, but with a decline in momentum. Price action retraced from the 1.58820 horizontal support zone three weeks ago and has continued northwards. Last week, the market printed a bearish candlestick with wicks on both ends, which indicates that bears are yet to take over market control. We may see further northward retracement but any retracement to a significant resistance, with a role flip, is likely to result in momentum for a southward continuation.
Price action on the daily time frame is presently operating in a rising channel (blue) in the context of a larger falling trend. This, technically, is a retracement as the market structure is still in favour of bears. Last Friday, the market printed an indecision candlestick around a minor horizontal support in confluence with the channel support. Technically, we may see further northward move to an area of value such as the channel resistance trendline or the immediate minor resistance around 1.64020/1.65370 (bound by black horizontal lines). This may extend to a retest of the 1.66570 area, which price action broke down a few weeks back; as observed on the weekly time frame. This will be a corrective move and will potentially give way to a southward turnaround.
EURUSD price action has been operating within a wide falling channel (blue) on the monthly time frame for many years. Presently, market operation is southwards within the channel. Last month, a bearish continuation candlestick was printed at the 1.10630 horizontal support area; an area which was last visited in May 2017.
Price action is grinding southwards within a minor falling channel (magenta) on the weekly time frame, but there has been limited southward momentum. Last week, the market printed a relatively big bearish candlestick which broke below a consolidation zone where price action had been ambivalent for four weeks. Presently, price action has penetrated the 1.09970 horizontal support zone and we may expect a sideways or retracement of price action in the area before any directional momentum. A breakdown of the 1.09970 horizontal support will likely see bears target the 1.08540 area.
Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears but we may expect a pullback of price action in correction. The 1.10630 area is a value area which price action may retest.
If you are enticed by the EURUSD positive mood, be aware that price action is operating in a minor falling channel (blue) within a bigger one (magenta) on the D1 time frame. So, it is advisable not to use a trend following strategy.
