The XAUUSD market has been on a positive run for quite a while. However, on the weekly time frame, the bullish momentum is declining. The last two weeks saw price action printing two rejection bearish candlesticks at a multi-year horizontal resistance zone. As last week’s candlestick is a strong bearish candlestick, in the early part of this week, we may see bears retest the low of the bullish candlestick printed three weeks ago – which is in confluence with the monthly pivot, 1491.91.
On the daily time frame, price action shot above a lower rising channel (with blue lower boundary) to operate in a higher rising channel (with red upper boundary), indicating an increase in bullish momentum. However, presently, the momentum has turned southwards in the upper channel with the printing of two bearish candlesticks on Thursday and Friday, and the technicals favour further southward move. We may see a penetration of the lower channel in the early part of this week.
On the H4 time frame, recent price action has tested the lower boundary (magenta) of the rising channel within which it has been operating since mid-August. Three of the candlesticks printed in the area have been relatively big and penetrated the channel support trendline. A breakdown of the channel support is likely to lead to a retest of the 1490 area; from which price operation rallied on August 23. Any further southward momentum is likely to expose the 1472 horizontal support area.
GBPCAD price action on the weekly time frame retested the 1.62580/1.64500 consolidation zone which it broke down six weeks ago. Last week, a long-tailed doji-like candlestick was printed at the zone but the technicals still favour bears.
The daily time frame shows price action located in a congestion area. There is sideways of operation in the zone but any bullish move will have to contend with the horizontal resistance around the 1.64040 area (blue). As the impulsive direction favours bears and the market structure is still intact, a northward move is an opportunity for shorting.
Price action on the H4 time frame has retested a broken-down rising channel (magenta). Some topping candlesticks have formed at the lower boundary of the channel, indicating a zone rejection. Should there be any further bullish move this week, the 1.63315/1.64040 zone (bound by blue horizontal lines) is likely to be a hindrance. I expect a bearish turnaround after any northward retracement. I am bearish GBPCAD.
The GBPUSD market is generally disposed negative but on the weekly time frame recent momentum has taken price action northwards for a retest of a breached congestion zone around 1.24500. Last week, the market printed a bullish candlestick that breached the top of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago. Although the candlestick printed last week has an upper wick, the longer lower wick indicates that bulls have an edge in the market. As the candlestick failed to pierce the 1.24500 resistance, we may expect bulls to make another attempt at the zone in the early part of this week. Technically, such a move is likely to be corrective. A southward turnaround is favoured.
A morning star formation is on the daily time frame. There was a bullish follow-through on Wednesday and Thursday last week, but it was limited by the bearish print on Friday. Technically, the momentum is still with the bulls and we may see further northward move in the early part of this week. However, the market structure is still intact, and we may see a southward turnaround soon, much likely at the 1.23790/1.25300 resistance zone (bound by blue horizontal lines).
The EURUSD market has been grinding negatively for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is within a falling wedge (blue) but with hindered southward momentum. Basically, there has been a lot of sideways operation within the wedge. Two weeks ago, the market printed a relatively big bearish candlestick that touched the wedge support trendline. However, last week, a bullish candlestick with wicks on both ends took price action a bit beyond the support trendline. This is a feeble attempt but the technical patterns within the wedge indicate that we may still have bulls take price action northwards; which, of course, will be a corrective move. In the coming days, we may see bears influence price action to retest the 1.08390 /1.07790 zone from which the market rallied in mid-April 2017.
On the daily time frame, last week, a morning star was formed at the wedge support of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. However, there was limited bullish follow-through as indecision candlesticks were printed by price action on Thursday and Friday. It is better to wait for market clarity in the next few days. As the bigger picture is still in favour of a downtrend, any sell trade is better done upon a pullback to a value area; for example, to around the wedge resistance trendline or the 1.11500/1.11700 horizontal resistance area.
Thanks!
I am thinking on remaining bearish on EUR/USD. The EU continues to struggle and the U.S-China trade war have taken a heavy toll on the manufacturing sector. The Brexit crisis is only getting deeper.
The XAUUSD market has come under negative pressure recently. The strong bullish momentum it witnessed for quite a long while is on the decline. On the weekly time frame, bearish candlesticks were printed by price action in the past three weeks after the market peaked to a multi-year resistance zone. A rising channel (blue) is still in operation and bears may see the channel support trendline or the 1472 horizonal support zone as the target objective. A significant breakdown of the channel may lead to further bearish drive.
On the daily time frame, last Thursday, price action printed a doji-like candlestick with a long upper wick, which indicated a strong bearish pressure. However, the bearish candlestick printed on Friday did not offer much confidence of a bearish follow-through. We may have to wait for the early part of this week to see how bears respond.
Technicals on the H4 time frame give a slight edge to bears and we may see them attempt a follow-through of the bearish disposition of last week Thursday and Friday.
ur not wrong dude, or if u are that makes 2 of us lol. it is bears for the takin and i expect some bullish PA monday or tuesday the latest(maybe to a fib) just so we can finish the weak down
this is what i m expecting(1hr tf) ofc it might range a bit, make a fake break right in the fib then another leg down(maybe symetrical move to that support).
cheers
The AUDUSD market has been disposed negatively for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is consolidating within a falling channel (blue). Presently, price momentum is northwards as bulls attempt to take price action towards the channel resistance trendline, while the 0.70020 zone is the immediate horizontal resistance. We should also be aware of the falling trendline (red) traceable to the high of July 2014; which may be influential as resistance in the longer term.
On the daily time frame, price action is disposed positively within the falling channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame but with decline in momentum as it traversed through the 0.68250/0.68960 horizontal resistance area, where it is presently located. Based on recent price action patterns within the falling channel, we may expect a further northward move, perhaps to the 0.69090/0.69450 area (bound by magenta horizontal lines) before any southward turnaround.
As the bigger picture is a falling channel, I am bearish AUDUSD. But I will await a feasible bearish setup at an area of value, say the 0.69090/0.69450 area or the 0.70020 horizontal resistance area.
In August 2019, a shooting star candlestick was formed on the EURGBP monthly time frame, rejecting a multi-year resistance zone. But, basically, on the weekly time frame, we can see the market operating within a wide range, 0.84650/0.93090 (bound by magenta horizontal lines), spanning roughly 830 pips. Presently, price action has rejected the upper boundary of the range with a series of bearish continuation candlesticks. We are likely to see a continuation of the bearish mode, particularly should price action break down the 0.88770 support zone.
On the daily time frame, the market is presently operating in a falling channel (black) after breaking out of a rising channel (blue). Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick was printed within the falling channel. Characteristically, we may not see another big bearish move until a sideways of price action, particularly as price action is presently located at a significant horizontal support area, the 0.88770 zone.
The EURUSD market has disposed negative but with sideways mode for quite a while. On the weekly time frame, price action is operating in a falling wedge (blue). Presently, bulls are taking market operation towards the wedge resistance trendline. Price action is now located at a horizontal resistance, which bulls must overcome to gain impetus for further northward move. Technically, such a move should be an opportunity to secure a bearish setup to align with the major market disposition.
On the daily time frame, a bottoming candlestick pattern has been printed by recent price action at the support trendline of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. This suggests bullish intent for further northward move. But the immediate horizontal resistance is located at the 1.11370 area.; which is less than 40 pips from current location of price action. So, we should wait. Besides, we should be mindful that most of the recent candlesticks printed also have upper shadows – indicating bearish influence – and a minor falling trendline (black) could be a barrier to a bullish drive. At any rate, technicals support sell trades from a bearish setup upon a northward move of price action to an area of value.
Presently, I am stepping aside from this market. I will not be trading it until there is an attractive sell trading setup on a daily closing basis with a feasible directional momentum.
If you are tracking the XAUUSD market, note that price action is making strong attempts to break down the 1480 horizontal support; a breakdown of which will expose the market to a southward drive.
GBPAUD price action is still operating in a rising channel (blue) on the weekly time frame. Presently, it is located around the channel resistance trendline, which is in confluence with the 1.85180 horizontal resistance. We may see some sideways of price action or a southward retracement in this area. The next major horizontal resistance is at the 1.87450 area; an area which is the upper boundary of a wide-range horizontal channel (bound by magenta horizontal lines) with the lower boundary around the 1.74220 area.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a rising trendline (magenta) but the bullish momentum is waning. The most recent candlestick prints show a balance of influence between bulls and bears as price action approaches the resistance trendline of the rising channel (blue) seen on the weekly time frame. This situation may lead to a limited northward move or some sideways of price action.
The XAUUSD market is still disposed positively but bears are becoming increasingly influential. On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, bears rejected the 1558 multi-year resistance zone. There was a bearish follow-up in the subsequent two weeks. But last week, bulls pushed price action northwards leading to the printing of a bullish pinbar. Technically, we should expect a bullish follow-through in the early part of this week.
Price action on the daily time frame is disposed positively and a rising trendline (red) is in play as support. Last week Friday, the market printed a bullish candlestick which lifted price operation above a minor congestion area. Although we may see a bullish continuation in the early part of this week, there are a few barriers that may hinder any bullish momentum. A breakdown of the rising trendline (red) on a daily closing basis may give impetus to a southward drive.
In the past six weeks, EURGBP price action has disposed southwards. However, recently, on the weekly time frame, the southward momentum has been waning.
Technicals on the daily time frame favour bears. But, as price action entered the 0.88150 minor support area, bulls pushed back to influence a northward retracement. Nevertheless, such a move is likely to be temporary in nature. The immediate major horizontal support is at the 0.87630 area.
A falling trendline (red) is in play on the H4 time frame. This may be influential as resistance in the foreseeable future. Presently, price action is disposed northwards but may meet resistance at a value area, such as 0.88920 or 0.89650, for a southward turnaround.
On the weekly time frame, the EURUSD price action is still disposed southwards within a falling wedge (blue). However, there is limited southward momentum as price action remains ambivalent as it nears the wedge support trendline. The bearish candlestick printed four weeks ago is still influential as a control or master candlestick for the subsequent three candlesticks. Its high, around 1.11380, may be a target for any bullish move, particularly as it is in confluence with a congestion zone which may act as resistance. We should also notice a falling minor trendline (black), which is in play as resistance to recent price action.
Recent price action on the daily time frame is rather choppy. As the major technical outlook is bearish, a feasible sell trade would need to await a significant northward pullback, perhaps to the 1.11380 area or the resistance trendline of the falling wedge (blue) seen on the weekly time frame.
Hi - thanks for this interesting forecast and entry advice. Can you explain your rule for drawing trend lines? For example, on the upper EURUSD 1w chart you’ve cut some wicks and not others. How do you decide which to cut and which to leave uncut?
Thank you for your encouraging comment. Regarding the wedge trendlines, the important thing for me is to get the upper or resistance trendline to touch key swing highs. Then copy it to the lower end or support area to touch at least two swing lows. We don’t need to touch all the wicks. Generally we regard those trendlines as zones. For a rising wedge, we start with the support trendline.
I’m trying to understand the basics about how people understand technical analysis. Trend lines would seem to be among the most basic of issues. So I apologize if I’m asking rudimentary/annoying/meaningless questions.
With this in mind, can I ask – how do you determine “key swing highs [or lows]”?
