EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
EURUSD market operation is now in an area, the 1.06130 area, which it last visited in April 2017. On the weekly time frame, looking left, this area saw a lot of sideways operation in the past. Technically, the area is susceptible to some sideways of price action, but we still have some space southward, for example as far as 1.05070, to which the sideways of price action may extend.
On the daily time frame, price action broke below the 1.07720 horizontal support area with a strong bearish drive last week Thursday. On Friday, bulls effected a pullback to retest the area but experienced a bearish pressure, resulting in the printing of a bullish candlestick with a very long upper shadow. This is in line with the observation on the weekly time frame that the EURUSD market has entered a significant horizontal support zone. Technically, we may experience some sideways of market operation but bulls seem poised to make another push for a northward retracement in the early part of this week.
On the H4 time frame, technicals favour the bears. But, presently, price action is sideways, and we may see a northward pullback before a bearish turnaround.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
GBPUSD market operation printed an all-time low last week. On the weekly time frame, the bearish candlestick printed broke below the 1.19710 horizontal support area, which was the inception of the bullish rally of January 2019. The candlestick printed an all time low of 1.13950 before bulls effected a 250-pips northward pullback, resulting in a candlestick print with a bottom tail. Technically, we can expect further bullish struggle and, possibly, a further northward pullback in the early part of this week.
On the daily time frame, price action turned sideways after the printing of the multi-year low around 1.13950. Last Friday, bulls attempted a northward pullback from the area, but bears resisted the move, resulting in the printing of a bullish candlestick with a long upper tail which inched to the broken-down 1.19710 horizontal support area. Apparently, bulls are still active in the market.
Price action on the H4 time frame is consolidating. Since the GBPUSD market is at an all-time low, we may see further sideways of price action or, even, a bullish move to an area of value.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
AUDNZD Weekly Technical Outlook
On the monthly time frame, the AUDNZD market operation has moved below the January 2019 low around 1.00230 and created a new low around 0.99910 before retracing northward. Presently, it is located around the 1.02475 area. This area is a previously broken-down horizontal support. The immediate horizontal resistance is around the 1.03155 area.
On the weekly time frame, market operation broke below the 1.02475 area three weeks ago. However, after it created a new low around the 0.9910 area two weeks ago, the bearish momentum declined. Last week, bulls took market operation further northward to retest the 1.02475 area but bears resisted the move, resulting in the printing of a long indecision candlestick. We can identify a falling trendline (blue) on the weekly time frame.
On the daily time frame, a morning star pattern was created by price action at the close of Friday session. The recent technical pattern indicates a northward move, perhaps, to retest a broken-down horizontal support or an area of value such as the 61.8 Fib zone (magenta) of the recent significant downward swing; even a retest of the falling trendline (blue) seen on the weekly time frame.
On the H4 time frame, price action is operating within an expanding, ascending wedge (red). Apparently, bulls are intent on taking market operation further northward.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
In March, the AUDUUSD market not only broke below the multi-year low around 0.59930 but retested the 0.54970 horizontal support area that was last visited in October 2002. However, market operation has moved several pips further northward and is presently located around 0.61430, representing a strong bullish push back. On the monthly time frame, the next horizontal resistance is around 0.62790. A falling trendline (red) traceable to June 2014 can been seen on the monthly time frame.
On the weekly time frame, two weeks ago, bulls resisted a bearish move that took market operation to the 0.54970 horizontal support area, resulting in the printing of a long-tailed bearish candlestick. Last week, bulls seized the initiative with a strong northward move towards the high of the bearish candlestick printed two weeks ago but fell about 70 pips short of it. Should bulls succeed in their ambition, we may see them target the 61.8/78.6 fib zone of the most recent downward swing; this is around 0.64600/0.66470 (bound by magenta horizontal lines).
On the daily time frame, recent price action is under the control of bulls. We may see further bullish move in the early part of this week. However, this is likely to be short-lived.
Price action on the H4 time frame is operating within a rising channel (blue). Presently, it is located around a congestion area (light green) which aligns with the 32.8 Fib zone of the downward swing from the high of December 31, 2019 to the low of March 19, 2020. The area is susceptible to some sideways of price action but recent order flow context favours the bulls.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
Technically, the USDJPY is in consolidation. But three weeks ago the market operation drove southward and entered the 101.110 area; an area it left in November 2016. This was after breaking below the 105.100 horizontal support area which has held since March 2018. However, bulls effected a northward drive that took market operation further northward for more than 700 pips. There was a bullish follow-up two weeks ago, which took market operation to the 111.230 consolidation area from where a bearish drop was initiated five weeks ago. Last week, a relatively big bearish candlestick took price action to a minor horizontal support around 108.020. We may see bears hazard a further southward move to retest the recently broken-down horizontal support around 105.100.
The ‘wicky’ tops around the 111.330 area on the daily time frame indicate a bearish rejection of the area. After a bearish move from the area that started on Wednesday, price action is presently located around the 108.020 horizontal support area. The next horizontal support is around 106.880. Furthermore, note that price action had broken below a rising trendline (blue) traceable to August 26, 2019 on February 28, 2020, and after seven days and several pips southward it retraced northward to the 111.330 area. On Thursday, price action again broke below the rising trendline (blue). Its retest for another role flip is likely to result in a bearish drive.
Price action on the H4 time frame has broken down a consolidation/topping zone around 111.710/109.680 (bound by magenta horizontal lines). We may expect a retest for a role flip but technicals favour bears.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market operation which has been grinding southwards in a falling channel (blue) on the weekly time frame since July 2018 experienced a bullish surge four weeks ago. This yielded a bullish follow-through three weeks ago, with a retest of a broken-down horizontal support around 1.14600. However, bears resisted the move with a strong southward pull resulting in the printing of a relatively big bearish candlestick with shadows on both ends. Bears continued the southward move two weeks ago resulting in the printing of a bigger bearish candlestick that brought market operation to the channel support trendline and nestled on the horizontal support area around 1.06440/1.06370. Last week, bulls effected a strong northward drive breaching the channel resistance trendline and took market operation to a minor horizontal resistance around the 1.11500 area. This is located near the 61.8 Fib of the downward swing from 1.14990 to 1.06370. Apparently, the bearish mode of the past few months is under threat but not convincingly.
Recent price action on the daily time frame is bullish after the falling channel (blue) within which it has been operating was breached northward, although not significantly. Presently, it is located within a horizontal resistance area, the 1.11260/1.12530 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines), and there is room for further bullish move within it. Given that the area has seen a lot of price congestion in the past, we may see some sideways of price action in the early part of this week. A northward breach of the area will likely incentivize bulls to target the next horizontal resistance around 1.13890. But a bearish fight back may see price action pulled southward to within the falling channel (blue).
On the H4 time frame, bulls are presently taking price action northward and a rising trendline (red) is in play. Price action is presently located in a horizontal resistance area (bound by magenta horizontal lines). Recent order flow favours bulls but there are technical barriers ahead of them. Personally, I am stepping aside from this market as there is little room for a feasible risk/reward ratio. Besides, we are close to the end of the month and we may see some profit taking in the next few days.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Two weeks ago, GBPUSD market operation broke below the 1.20290 horizontal support area that has held since September 2019 to create an all-time low around the 1.13950 area. On the weekly time frame, last week bulls drove market further northward from the area to retest the broken-down horizontal support area around 1.23940/1.24550, breaking the high of the bearish candlestick of two weeks ago. Technically, this is around the 61.8 Fib retracement of the bearish drop from three weeks ago and unless bulls effect a strong follow-through in the early part of this week, we can expect bears to continue a southward mode.
On the daily time frame, market operation has retraced from the all-time low created around the 1.13950 area to around 1.23940. The order flow is in favuor of bulls, but the immediate horizontal resistance is around 1.25800, which is about 120 pips above current location of price action. Should price action reach the 1.25800 area in the early part of this week, we may see them push for a retest of the 1.23940 area. Alternatively, technically, a bearish turnaround at the current location is feasible as price action has been parabolic recently.
Price action has entered a significant horizontal resistance zone, 1.24580/1.26050 (bound by magenta horizontal lines) on the H4 time frame. Technically, the area is likely to witness some struggle between bulls and bears in the early part of this week but presently the technicals still favour bulls. But a bearish move to retest a rising trendline (blue) from recent lows is also feasible; while the 1.21790 area is an immediate horizontal support and may be a magnet for bears.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
AUDUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The AUDUSD market is still disposed negatively. On the monthly time frame, market operation printed a bearish continuation candlestick in March which broke down the 0.59890 multi-year support zone. The candlestick spiraled southward to hit a lower multi-year horizontal support area around 0.54950 before retracing northward to nestle around the broken-down 0.59890 zone.
On the weekly timeframe, market operation has been in a consolidation mode in the last two weeks after the strong bearish drive to the 0.54950 multi-year support zone. Two weeks ago, it printed a bullish candlestick, which was in the main, an inside bar to the bearish candlestick printed three weeks ago. Last week, a bearish candlestick, in the shape of a dark cloud cover, was printed. Technically, we may see market operation respect the 0.61545/0.57970 range (bound by purple horizontal lines) in the early part of this week.
The price action on the daily time frame is disposed southward and the technicals are in support.
On the H4 time frame, price action has broken down a bearish flag (blue) to respect a falling trendline (red) that aligns with the impulsive trend. This indicates a bearish continuation, which is supported by recent bearish candlestick prints around the 0.61545 horizontal resistance. I am bearish AUDUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
In March, GBPJPY market operation broke below the 126.440 horizontal support zone, that has held since September 2019, to retest the multi-year horizontal support around 123.260, which is traceable to October 2016, before recoiling to nestle around the 133.165 area, an area which marked the inception of a northward rally in October 2019. Having broken down the 133.165 area once, we may see bears encouraged to attempt another southward push. Besides, a falling trendline channel (blue) traceable to October 2007 is likely to be active as resistance.
On the weekly time frame, the 149.270/144.370 zone (bound by purple horizontal lines) is a significant horizontal resistance. Six weeks ago, bears effected a southward drive from the area and there has been a bearish follow-through that exposed the 123.260 multi-year horizontal support area. Two weeks ago, bulls effected a northward push but there was no follow-up last week, when a small doii-like inside candlestick was printed. Technically, bears are favoured to regain market influence this week.
The order flow context on the daily time frame generally favours bears. However, bulls have taken price action for a northward retracement and presently in consolidation. Besides, there are a few resistance areas close to the present location of price action. For example, the immediate horizontal resistance is around 134.560/135.650 (bound by magenta horizontal lines), which is about 100 pips above the present location of price action. Technically, we can expect bears to effect a southward continuation even if there is a brief northward move in the early part of this week.
Price action has broken down a bearish flag (black) on the H4 time frame. It is now operating within a falling channel (red), a breakdown of which will likely give impetus to a bearish drive.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
EURUSD market operation printed a relatively big doji-like candlestick in March after entering a horizontal support zone around 1.06270 traceable to April 2017. This was after a bearish mode in January and February that emerged from the bullish retracement of October to December 2019.
Market operation on the weekly time frame is largely disposed negatively but presently it is in a sideways mode. Based on the candlestick prints and order flow in the last four weeks, we can expect bears to regain market influence. The 1.05550 area is the immediate horizontal support and may be a magnet for bears.
On the H4 time frame, price action is respecting a falling trendline (blue) after a corrective move. Technically, we can expect a bearish continuation this week.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The bearish drop in March from the high of February produced an all-time low around 1.127250 before market operation retraced northward to the 1.24060 area. This was after it failed to break below the 1.21940 area, from where it rallied in October 2019. The March southward drive showed the intent of bears to maintain market control. Nevertheless, the long tail on the March print indicates that bulls are still influential. The 1.21630 area (purple) is the immediate horizontal support.
The weekly time frame presently shows a consolidating market operation. The strong bearish print of three weeks ago lacked a follow-through as it was countered by a strong bullish drive a week later. Last week’s candlestick print was a relatively smaller bearish candlestick that failed to break below the 1.22690 area, an area that had been a horizontal support since the second week of October 2019 before it was broken down three weeks ago. Apparently, any bearish drive to be sustainable will have to significantly break down the 1.22690 area. The next significant horizontal support zone is around 1.21630/1.19670.
The daily time frame shows a topping/’wicky’ formation from recent candlestick prints around the 50/61.8 Fib zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines) of the most recent downward swing, 1.32030/1.14020. Looking left, the area is aligned with a previous horizontal resistance, and technically susceptible to a southward turnaround. The order flow context favours bears.
Price action on the H4 time frame has broken below a rising trendline (red), now within an expanding falling wedge (blue) and presently around the 50/61.2 Fib zone of the most recent significant downward swing: the 1.32030/1.142020 swing. Should bears break down the falling wedge, and of course the 50/61.2 Fib zone, we may see a southward drive. I am bearish GBPUSD.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
USDCAD Weekly Technical Outlook
In March 2020, the USDCAD market entered the 1.46750 area, which is the 78.6 Fib retracement zone of the multi-year downward swing from the high of February 2002 (i.e. 1.60890) to the low of November 2011 (i.e. 0.90750). The area witnessed a southward turnaround in January 2016, but market operation has maintained a positive mode since January 2020 to retest the zone. Presently, on the monthly time frame, the market operation is located around the 1.39700 area.
On the weekly time frame, four weeks ago, market operation entered the multi-year horizontal resistance around 1.46650 (red), which was last tested in January 2016, before retracing to the 1.43400 area. Three weeks ago, market operation printed a bearish candlestick which teased above the 1.43400 area but closed around 1.39850. The last two weeks have seen market operation in a sideways mode. Presently, it is located at a previously breached multi-year horizontal resistance zone around 1.40070/1.39200 (blue), where a bearish engulfing candlestick nestled last week. This portends a bearish intent for a southward continuation. Besides, we should note that the 1.37950 area had remained intact as a horizontal resistance since April 2017 and may attract a bearish retest.
Technical patterns on the daily time frame, including bearish/‘wicky’ candlesticks, favour a southward continuation. However, as price action has entered a recently breached horizontal resistance, the 1.40070/1.39200 zone (blue), we should watch how the area is handled by the market in the early part of this week. A significant breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis will likely lead to a bearish drive.
Price action on the H4 time frame is within a falling triangle (magenta). Presently, it is operating at the triangle support, an area that is aligned with a previously breached horizontal resistance. A bullish break above the triangle resistance trendline will likely target the 1.42050 horizontal resistance while a breakdown of the triangle support may see bears target the horizontal support around 1.37400.
I may be wrong. Stay safe and trade safe.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD is still under a bearish pressure on account of the bearish drop from the 1.31900 area six weeks ago and the strong bearish continuation, a week later, that created the new low around 1.13985. Presently, market operation is sideways, but the 1.24530 area is still holding as resistance. The area is around the 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 1.31900 to 1.13985, and it is susceptible to a southward turnaround. The 1.19900 area is the immediate horizontal support.
On the daily time frame, price action is consolidating within the 1.21890/1.24970 zone (bound by magenta horizontal lines). Presently, price action is located near the upper boundary of the zone where it printed a doji-like candlestick on Friday, indicating a pause in directional momentum.
On the H4 time frame, price action is located at the upper boundary of the horizontal channel (magenta) seen on the daily time frame. The candlestick prints in the area are relatively small; technically indicating a decline in bullish momentum. Any significant bearish print in the area in the early part of this week will likely encourage bears to go for a southward turnaround. I will be looking for a feasible bearish setup this week.
I may be wrong. Stay safe and trade safe.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market is in consolidation within the context of a downward technical mode. This is expectedly so as market operation on the weekly time frame has inched to a significant horizontal support and the inception area of the northward rally of April 2017, i.e. the 1.06510/1.05500 zone (bound by light green horizontal lines). Presently, the momentum is bullish, market operation having printed a piercing candlestick last week that took it about 270 pips above the 1.06510 horizontal support. Any sideways continuation may see a bearish retest of the 1.06510 horizontal support. Should the area hold, we may see a further bullish move, restoring the sideways mode. However, a bearish breakdown of the 1.06510/1.05500 zone will likely expose the 1.04560 multi-year horizontal support area (purple). That, of course, is still a long way off.
On the daily time frame, EURUSD price action has rejected the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the significant downward swing from 1.15090 to 1.06360. It is presently around the 38.2 Fib area, and adjoining an S/R area around 1.09360, where a spinning top was printed on Friday. We should await how the market handles the area in the early part of this week.
The momentum on the H4 time frame is presently bullish with two rising trendlines (red and blue) traceable to recent lows still active; the 1.10440 area is the immediate horizontal resistance. A breakdown of the longer rising trendline (red) may encourage bears to target the immediate horizontal support around 1.06500. Meanwhile, as a swing trader, I am stepping aside from this market. I will await directional clarity after the market sessions on Tuesday.
I may be wrong. Stay safe and trade safe.
Trap
The USDCAD is presently on my radar for a bearish swing trade. My tracking range is 1.39280/1.42480. My interest will be piqued for a short-term swing trade southward if there is a feasible setup around the 1.4280 area (magenta) for a final profit target around the 1.39280 area (light green).
I may be wrong. Stay safe, trade safe.
Trap
XAUUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
Despite the recent decline, the XAUUSD is still technically in an uptrend mode. On the weekly time frame, a previously broken-down rising trendline (blue) is now being respected by market operation. The trendline was broken down five weeks ago after a strong bearish pressure a week earlier, but bulls effected a strong influence four weeks ago leading to a relatively bigger bullish candlestick print that took market operation far above the trendline. Last week, a long bearish pin bar was printed from the 1750 horizontal resistance area to nestle at the 1672 area which was a previous horizontal resistance now being turned to support. Although the technicals are still in support of bulls, we cannot rule out some bearish move in the early part of this week.
On the daily time frame, price action is parabolic and an active rising trendline (black) is too steep, potentially susceptible to a breakdown. The technical pattern on the daily time frame suggests a bearish mode in the offing. Should the trendline be significantly broken down on a daily closing basis, I will look for a sell trading opportunity.
I may be wrong. Stay safe, trade safe.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The USDJPY is in consolidation on the weekly time frame. Presently, the sideways is taking place in the 108.550/106.860 zone (magenta). But a star-pattern has formed within the zone in the past three weeks, which technically portends that a bearish mode is in the offing.
Recent price action on the H4 time frame is consolidating within a narrow channel in the 107.970/106.990 zone (blue). A significant breakdown of the zone will likely encourage bears to initially target the 106.360 area before pushing to expose the 105.160 handle. However, a northward break of the 107.970/106.990 zone (blue) may see bulls retest the 108.800 horizontal resistance. I am interested in a feasible bearish setup on the H4 time frame.
I may be wrong. Stay safe, trade safe.
Trap
EURUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The EURUSD market has been on a sideways mode in the past five weeks. On the weekly time frame, in the past two weeks, market operation has been consolidating in the 1.09900/1.07900 zone.
On the daily time frame, price action printed a bullish candlestick last Friday which was an inside candlestick to the bearish print of Thursday. This is a few pips above the lower boundary of the 1.09900/1.07900 zone, within which the market has been operating in the past two weeks. A significant breakdown of the zone on a daily closing basis is needed before we can have confidence in any southward continuation.
On the H4 time frame, price action has rejected the 61.8 Fib retracement zone of the downward swing from 1.14900 to 1.06330. Presently, it is in a northward mode from the 23.6 Fib area,retesting a broken-down rising trendline(magenta) from recent lows. A bounce off the trendline may result in a southward turnaround while a northward breach of the trendline will likely see a retest of the immediate horizontal resistance around the 1.09900 area.
I may be wrong. Stay safe, trade safe.
Trap
GBPUSD Weekly Technical Outlook
The GBPUSD market has been consolidating in the past few weeks within the context of a bearish pressure. In the past three weeks, the sideways operation has been confined to the 1.24970/1.21930 zone. Last week, market operation printed a long-tailed indecision candlestick at the 1.24970 area, which adjoins the 61.8 Fib retracement of the 1.31940/1.13840 downward swing. Technically, this is an area we should watch in the early part of this week.
On the daily time frame, two opposing candlesticks were printed last week Tuesday and Wednesday around the 61.8 Fib retracement area of the 1.31940/1.13840 downward swing. Thursday and Friday saw the printing of two opposing but relatively small candlesticks in the same area. The Friday print has a bullish tinge. This situation technically shows a sideways of market operation.
The order flow context on the H4 time frame, with relatively small prints over several hours, indicates a weakening of bullish influence. But the technicals still give a slight edge to bulls. Presently the 1.25200/1.24090 zone (magenta) is where price action is at play. Therefore, I will watch how price action handles the area in the early part of this week.
I may be wrong. Stay safe, trade safe.
Trap
USDJPY Weekly Technical Outlook
The USDJPY market is presently sideways but under a bearish pressure. On the weekly time frame, after the relatively strong bearish print of five weeks ago, bulls failed to provide any significant push-back. Nevertheless, although a bearish star pattern was printed two weeks ago, this did not yield a bearish follow-through as the candlestick printed last week was ambivalent.
On the daily time frame, price action has moved below the 50 and 61.8 Fib retracement of the downward swing from 111.240 to 106.910. Presently, it is consolidating around the 23.6 Fib area and may threaten the 38.2 Fib area. It is also just below the 108.000 psychological reaction area. Therefore, we should await what price action does on Monday.
The sideways of price action is prominent on the H4 time frame. The 108.280/107.000 horizontal range (magenta) should be watched; a bullish breakout from the range may see bulls target the 50 Fib zone around 109.250 while its breakdown by bears may lead to a southward continuation.
I may be wrong. Trade safe and prosper.
Trap
