Entry level does not matter. Using S/R* to keep things simple.
There are no edges in trading.***
There is no way to predict a trend. All trends are hindsight.
It is easier for price to retrace than to trade beyond extremes.
Price movement is random.
Indicators are derived from historical prices and are of no use for profitability.
Trade Management :
Initial Entry: 40 pip TP (0.8R)/ Re-entry at -50 pips or next S/R level beyond. (54+% win rate**)
Secondary Entry: 25 pip TP (0.5R)/ Re-entry at -100 or next S/R level (80+% win rate**)
Third Entry: 50 pip TP (0R)/ Hedge or Invalidation Level at -200 pips (80% win rate**)
*Support and resistance will always have the same odds of price respecting them (50%). Round numbers are due to the predictive nature of where large options (vanilla, exotic) are placed. Option order flow attracts trades toward their price but not much past, if at all.
**Win % based on R-Multiples Forex R-Multiple Win Percentages
***When retail enters a counterparty trade with their broker by buying the Ask or shorting the Bid.
I’d like to see price break past one of these recent swings in yellow and trade the next level past them. TradingView Price alerts set just under 1.0900 & just above 1.0800 to monitor price action in those areas.
Are you trading the price bouncing off the red bars? Looks a reasonable idea.
I’d think 1.10 is where it’s going, but US data keeps surprising. CPI lower than expected today would likely see a move up to 1.09 but it might not hold yet.
Correct. Setting alerts to check for consolidation at those levels. It wont work if price rips through like it may during CPI. I’ll adjust levels once price discovery slows down if it does move directly to 1.10.
Sorry, I updated the screenshot. With the correct lot sizes.
The initial position would have been +$8 if the 40 pip TP was hit. I averaged down with double the size, netting $5 with +$10 on the 2nd trade and -$5 on the first.
Good end to the week. I was able to profit from a long last night. Had a short setup immediately after at 1.0800–>1.0760. I received a price alert at 1.0796 but wasn’t able to connect to my demo acct on mobile. That was another profitable setup.
Selling past the highs at the next round number. That easy.
I’m confused about your post. Please can you clarify the below.
Are you demonstrating the success of your trading system?
If so why do you state that there is no edge in trading your system?
Is it a support and resistance system?
If so, why do you state that S/R has the same odds of price respecting them? Doesn’t it mean there is no edge there?
Did you include other guidelines of your entries or exit or is it intentionally left ambiguous?
This type of system is how large traders trade. As their bets get larger, they run in to a problem with liquidity. Retailer’s advantage is there is not a problem with liquidity. We can trade like them.
There is no edge in one single trade. Just the odds playing out. If I trade 0.8R, I will win about 54% of my initial trade, then about 80% of my secondary trade, and an additional 80% win rate for the 3rd entry. All in all, the odds of losing 3 trades in a row are 1.8% (0.46 x 0.20 x 0.20).
It’s support and resistance because I couldn’t think of a more simple method of entry that didn’t limit the occurrences. We need occurrences so that there’s enough for the odds to play out.
Entry to sell at resistance, buy at support. It’s subjective. No two traders will see exactly the same. Trade exit at +.8R, or +.5R, or 0R (breakeven).
Okay… But not sure why you are explaining this in this context?
So can I interpret it as the follows:
You are NOT demonstrating the success of your trading system. You are simply demonstrating that with a lower risk reward ratio, you will get a higher win rate to balance out the 50/50 probability of the market.
Honestly I’m just trying to understand what is the point you are trying to make here…
It seems like you want to journal your trades according to your system. And you make comments like “good end to the week”, which seems like you have faith in your system and it is profitable. It is also supposedly evidenced by your forex factory records.
However you make claims that there is “no edge in trading” in your first post. And in this post, you said “there is no edge in one single trade”, so I assume you mean there is edge in your system OVER TIME across many trades… But you also said this is NOT a system and is simply a “simple method of entry”, which makes me assume you are demonstrating that there is no edge in the system…
