Well it’s not going to 1.10 any time soon. US rate increase is looking more likely than a cut now
Entered after CPI move lower. Entered again at support after US Open. Take Profit for positions at 1.0756.
Re-mapped price levels
Trade Management :
Initial Entry: 40 pip TP / Re-entry at -50 pips or next level beyond. (54+% win rate)
Secondary Entry: 25 pip TP / Re-entry at -100 or next level (80+% win rate)
Third Entry: 50 pip TP / Hedge or Invalidation Level at -200 pips (80% win rate)
First position closed at a net profit at 0 net pips.
Other than lot size being 10x too small than supposed to be, successful profitable position.
Wait, that means you made a profit equal to the amount you would have made if you opened a trade using 0.01 lot size right?
Sorry, I updated the screenshot. With the correct lot sizes.
The initial position would have been +$8 if the 40 pip TP was hit. I averaged down with double the size, netting $5 with +$10 on the 2nd trade and -$5 on the first.
oooooo
Interesting
Trade Explorer: EurUsd Trading Price
April 2024
Trades:
“History Doesn’t Repeat Itself, but It Often Rhymes”
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I’m starting to see the vision.
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Good end to the week. I was able to profit from a long last night. Had a short setup immediately after at 1.0800–>1.0760. I received a price alert at 1.0796 but wasn’t able to connect to my demo acct on mobile. That was another profitable setup.
Selling past the highs at the next round number. That easy.
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I’m confused about your post. Please can you clarify the below.
Are you demonstrating the success of your trading system?
If so why do you state that there is no edge in trading your system?
Is it a support and resistance system?
If so, why do you state that S/R has the same odds of price respecting them? Doesn’t it mean there is no edge there?
Did you include other guidelines of your entries or exit or is it intentionally left ambiguous?
This type of system is how large traders trade. As their bets get larger, they run in to a problem with liquidity. Retailer’s advantage is there is not a problem with liquidity. We can trade like them.
There is no edge in one single trade. Just the odds playing out. If I trade 0.8R, I will win about 54% of my initial trade, then about 80% of my secondary trade, and an additional 80% win rate for the 3rd entry. All in all, the odds of losing 3 trades in a row are 1.8% (0.46 x 0.20 x 0.20).
It’s support and resistance because I couldn’t think of a more simple method of entry that didn’t limit the occurrences. We need occurrences so that there’s enough for the odds to play out.
Entry to sell at resistance, buy at support. It’s subjective. No two traders will see exactly the same. Trade exit at +.8R, or +.5R, or 0R (breakeven).
Okay… But not sure why you are explaining this in this context?
So can I interpret it as the follows:
You are NOT demonstrating the success of your trading system. You are simply demonstrating that with a lower risk reward ratio, you will get a higher win rate to balance out the 50/50 probability of the market.
Honestly I’m just trying to understand what is the point you are trying to make here…
It seems like you want to journal your trades according to your system. And you make comments like “good end to the week”, which seems like you have faith in your system and it is profitable. It is also supposedly evidenced by your forex factory records.
However you make claims that there is “no edge in trading” in your first post. And in this post, you said “there is no edge in one single trade”, so I assume you mean there is edge in your system OVER TIME across many trades… But you also said this is NOT a system and is simply a “simple method of entry”, which makes me assume you are demonstrating that there is no edge in the system…
Yep, no edges exist in retail Forex. Which is why I have to use multiple positions to create positive expectancy. I have been very “lucky” with 75% win rate, average win is 3x the average loss. Interesting to see where the final average lands.
Through my research on EurUsd, with random entry, 40 pip TP and -50 stop/invalidation has been one of the most profitable scenarios with the least drawdown. The rest of my trading comes from various forms of order flow analysis.
My thought process is that if price entry does not matter, then I’d like to enter a 54% chance to win after at least one failed trade… Preferably two in a row. Here is the most recent short from 1.0777. The failed trade would have been a short from 1.0732, then I enter on the next opportunity.
Those combined are the 50/50 trades, I just chose the one after the fail. If I had to pick an edge, it’s skipping the “bad” trades.
Here’s the analysis for the current short from 1.0770:
On the retail order book, we see there is an accumulation of orders at 1.0790 to create resistance, and a large group of buy stops at 1.0950 to enter short if price goes there without a retrace.
These are contradictory points. Having a positive expectancy is by definition having an edge. Having no edge is having 0 expectancy in the absence of fees. It doesn’t make sense when you have no edge but a positive expectancy.
We are only net positive at the moment because of chance.