Here’s the analysis for the current short from 1.0770:
On the retail order book, we see there is an accumulation of orders at 1.0790 to create resistance, and a large group of buy stops at 1.0950 to enter short if price goes there without a retrace.
These are contradictory points. Having a positive expectancy is by definition having an edge. Having no edge is having 0 expectancy in the absence of fees. It doesn’t make sense when you have no edge but a positive expectancy.
We are only net positive at the moment because of chance.
No edge. Just happens like this:
Sold EurUsd at 1.0845 today due to Friday’s 1.0845 option level. Less than 1 pip of draw down.
Hope everyone survived CPI & FOMC today. Been playing both sides of EurUsd, flipped short Euro/ long Dollar after EurUsd spiked on CPI news. Powell gave the Dollar some strength to finish the session. I’ll be looking for more short if we can get a move to 1.0860-1.0900 zone.
Simple risk management to continue this week.
Bought 1 unit during consolidation at 1.0735
Bought 2 units at drop to 1.0700
Closed both positions at 1.0725 for +1.7% net.
Pending short at 1.0748
Using 1:0.8 R:R (54% win), actual stats are 1:2 R:R @ 71% win rate.
https://www.forexfactory.com/ryan420#acct.20
+3% to start the week. Increasing lot size to match acct growth.
Pending Short at 1.0800 to target 1.0760.
Are your trading of 1hr only?
How do you define your S/R? Mainly experience?
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The 1hr chart looks more even to me… 4hr is too zoomed out… 30m/15m is too zoomed in. Timeframe doesn’t matter though, whatever is easiest for you to follow.
I usually pick a round number to trade at… or entry after a break of a swing high or swing low. It’s better on drawdown to enter short when price runs up through an area of buy stops or buy when price crashes through sell stops below. There isn’t a right or wrong as entry price doesn’t matter… Ive back tested scenarios where I buy where I sold and sold where I bought… very similar returns.
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Here’s where I want to look for Shorts & Longs: the dotted lines are alarms
I’ll add a short if we get a break of 1.0855. Conversely, I’ll close the shorts and enter Long around 1.0655 when price breaks the lows.
How can this be? There’s so much stuff on “get your entry right to be a successful trader” and “exits are even more important that entries”. How can your entry not matter at all. Hard to make that work in my brain.
Backtest it. Entry level matters very little if at all. If a retail broker sponsors information like this, it’s for their advantage.
Perfect exits are 100% unpredictable. The best entries and exits happen randomly.
Liquidity > Price
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The problem I have with this is by the time price breaks through a swing high/low, you’re usually chasing, then you have to sit through the pullback.
Patience is key.
Define “usually”. Quantifiable stats?
Patience is Key? I’m very patient. Haven’t had a nervous night in months trading this way.
Experience.
This wasn’t a criticism, just a comment.
Been a pretty boring July for E/U shorts. Gaining more on Swaps than Pips 
Started a $1500 Live account for all FX pairs in the meantime. Same strategy. Shorting highs, buying lows.
This demo will cease when it gets to +100% so I can put more focus on my live Personal Trading Acct going from 1.5k to 15k. I use the same strategy across all FX pairs, but will use varying re-entry levels as some pairs are more volatile than others. I’ll keep all EurUsd trades the same exact rules as in this thread.
