Yep, no edges exist in retail Forex. Which is why I have to use multiple positions to create positive expectancy. I have been very “lucky” with 75% win rate, average win is 3x the average loss. Interesting to see where the final average lands.
Through my research on EurUsd, with random entry, 40 pip TP and -50 stop/invalidation has been one of the most profitable scenarios with the least drawdown. The rest of my trading comes from various forms of order flow analysis.
My thought process is that if price entry does not matter, then I’d like to enter a 54% chance to win after at least one failed trade… Preferably two in a row. Here is the most recent short from 1.0777. The failed trade would have been a short from 1.0732, then I enter on the next opportunity.
On the retail order book, we see there is an accumulation of orders at 1.0790 to create resistance, and a large group of buy stops at 1.0950 to enter short if price goes there without a retrace.
These are contradictory points. Having a positive expectancy is by definition having an edge. Having no edge is having 0 expectancy in the absence of fees. It doesn’t make sense when you have no edge but a positive expectancy.
We are only net positive at the moment because of chance.
Hope everyone survived CPI & FOMC today. Been playing both sides of EurUsd, flipped short Euro/ long Dollar after EurUsd spiked on CPI news. Powell gave the Dollar some strength to finish the session. I’ll be looking for more short if we can get a move to 1.0860-1.0900 zone.
The 1hr chart looks more even to me… 4hr is too zoomed out… 30m/15m is too zoomed in. Timeframe doesn’t matter though, whatever is easiest for you to follow.
I usually pick a round number to trade at… or entry after a break of a swing high or swing low. It’s better on drawdown to enter short when price runs up through an area of buy stops or buy when price crashes through sell stops below. There isn’t a right or wrong as entry price doesn’t matter… Ive back tested scenarios where I buy where I sold and sold where I bought… very similar returns.
How can this be? There’s so much stuff on “get your entry right to be a successful trader” and “exits are even more important that entries”. How can your entry not matter at all. Hard to make that work in my brain.
This demo will cease when it gets to +100% so I can put more focus on my live Personal Trading Acct going from 1.5k to 15k. I use the same strategy across all FX pairs, but will use varying re-entry levels as some pairs are more volatile than others. I’ll keep all EurUsd trades the same exact rules as in this thread.
