I have nothing to prove to anyone, nor do I have to prove myself to anyone.
I had a private chat with ITC this morning, and we are going ahead with the charity trading account in January.
I will do any talking I have in the one and only arena that matters and thats the markets.
Naysayers, haters, paranoid freaks, trolls whatever you call them, they don’t bother me in a personal sense, what a few internet fools and cowards think of me or say about me doesn’t mean anything to me, I actually find it amusing that I have so much attention as of late for doing nothing more than offering some teachings of methods, I certainly wont lose sleep, I just don’t want a perfectly good thread destroyed because some people have personalty disorders that leads them to ranting, making false and wild accusations and hijacking other peoples threads in a hysterical manner.
This matter is closed in my book. I want to concentrate on working on what the thread is for, and thats to make educational postings. I will simply ignore anything else from now on and report any inappropriate or off-topic posts to the mods to take action as per the forum rules.
Very simple cut and dry explanations. I like it. Lets keep this thread going! Looking forward to the ICT and Andrew Keane charity trade race contest too.
Edit:
Having read the rest of the thread and all the questions and criticisms I’m utterly confused. He wants no money, he is not claiming to be making people rich, he’s just asking for the thread to be kept clean and on topic. If this turns into a “Now give me $$ to be given the working method” type thread i’ll leave so will everyone else.
Being skeptical is vital especially when your thinking of risking your money. I am a natural skeptic, I never take the word of anyone as true without substantial evidence to support it. However I don’t go out of my way to tell people they are wrong just because I don’t share the same belief as they do due to a lack of evidence. If I did i’d probably be spending all my days in religious temples for every religion known to man rambling about the lack of evidence for Ganesh having ever existed. lol
Having said that his thread and OP are not talking about hypotheticals or putting your blind faith in them and trusting they will deliver in the future. There are already 2 full strategies/methods/approaches outlined in full! You no longer need to ask for proof as you can test the methods yourself. The evidence is right there! You can prove or disprove this threads worth to yourself.
Now if you wish to accuse someone of something then the burden of proof lies with you. OP has provided the proof via full disclosure of two trading methods. If you believe he is actually Barry S***peas with a yellow porsche and have proof then by all means post away, if you don’t have proof and are only commenting on whim or a gut feeling then it’s best to be quiet. Scammers always reveal them selves as what they are or real proof comes to light. There is no point calling every new poster a scammer because it will inevitably drive decent folk away.
can you explain the algo trades a bit more, and how I would get into this trade? I am a student of ICT and he has taught the initial move at the London Open as the Judas Swing. The banks will run price up or down to get traders fooled into trading in the direction of the initial run, when in fact the actual movement will be in the opposite direction. Where price reverses, there should also be S/R. The image below is from friday’s London Open, and the circled area is shortly after LO and the vertical lines delineate midnight NY time. Using ICT’s methods, I went short at 1.6060, or maybe a couple pips below that, right below the R1pivot point. Using your methods, price has moved quite a distance from the 200MA, and there is a divergence is the RSI, which would tip me off that price should be going lower. Using your methods, how would I determine where to enter the trade?
I will try to go through your questions best I can.
“I am a student of ICT and he has taught the initial move at the London Open as the Judas Swing. The banks will run price up or down to get traders fooled into trading in the direction of the initial run, when in fact the actual movement will be in the opposite direction. Where price reverses, there should also be S/R.”
I don’t want to step on anyone’s toes or question someones methods or theory, but the moves you see at session open is not to fool traders about direction, thats a myth and inaccurate. The moves you see at the session open in one direction to then reverse a short period after, is order books being fulfilled which is creating liquidity.
As a trading desk opens up for the day, they will have overnight and pre-open orders to process at ‘best execution and cost’. These orders will be for large amounts, either by single trade large amounts from corporates, model accounts and funds, or an accumulation of small orders but vast amounts, even both, therefore the dealing desks that process the orders have to fulfill the orders at the best price they can and where liquidity is sitting in the market.
So lets say that the EUR/USD is trading at 1.2500 pre London, dealing desk A has 200,000 BUY orders from clients to fill at ‘best market’ fill range or 35pips worth 45 million, while dealing desk B has 200,000 SELL orders from clients to fill at ‘best market’ @ 1.2480-85 range worth 30 million.
Now lets say there is not enough liquidity to fill the SELL or BUY orders at current market ‘1.2500’, the dealing desks will have to find enough liquidity to fulfill there clients orders with least slippage. Its not the dealing desks job to make sure a trade wins, loses or draws, the dealing desk jobs is to process the clients orders at the best price they can get with least slippage. After that its up to the client if they are wrong or right or how they manage the trades.
So for example purpose, lets say there is 15 million worth to BUY at 1.2505 and 30 million to SELL at 1.2480-85. Dealing desk A needs to fill 45 million worth of orders at the open, they will seek the largest order blocks to current market, therefore they will sell-off a leveraged amount in order to dip price down to the 30 million order block at 1.2480-85, this will fulfill 30 million of their 45 million BUY orders, because more demand (15 million excess) is in the market than supply, price will then rallie up (demand causes higher prices, supply causes lower prices) to fulfill the remaining 15 million of BUY orders at the nearest liquidity levels, in this case 1.2505.
That is what causes the movements that you see in the morning at the open, it is NOT the banks playing trickery - pokery with you or anyone else, and trying to perused you that price is going to trend that way or another.
You can call it Judas Swing, Judas Priest or whatever fancy name you can drill up, but the theory from ICT is inaccurate about the banks trying to trick you at the open sorry to say, the banks don’t care about you, you are nothing to them, your money and your account is insignificant and pocket change to them. As I have said, the movements are liquidity based from dealing desks filling their client books.
Your next question
"Using ICT’s methods, I went short at 1.6060, or maybe a couple pips below that, right below the R1pivot point. Using your methods, price has moved quite a distance from the 200MA, and there is a divergence is the RSI, which would tip me off that price should be going lower. Using your methods, how would I determine where to enter the trade? "
I’m not the kind of trader that sits around waiting for indicators to cross or turn, or candle pattern signals. If you have a theory, system, method or technique, which ever name, pick one, then you have to have faith in it.
If you have done proper analysis on trends, trend lines and support and resistance, then once your trading method lines up in agreement, you should be pulling the trigger there and then at that level or setting orders to enter.
Having the faith and confidence to do that is what helps you bet the spread and yield better profits with excellent market timing ahead of most of the crowed.
My support and resistance points for GBP/USD on Friday were:
Resistance:1.6055 (November 27th high), 1.6078 (Down trend line from September), 1.6135 (November 2nd high)
I prefer to BUY/SELL at the 200SMA over most support/resistance points, therefore if price is heading in the direction of the 200SMA and there is support or resistance in the way, I would prefer to enter at the MA rather than the support or resistance, so I would wait.
In the GBP chart you have provided, this would be classed as a counter trend move because price is actually trading above the 200SMA on the daily chart, and it is also trading above the 200SMA on the 1 hour chart. So for counter trend moves, I look for the 3 rules that I outlined on post #8 of this thread…
[B]The 3 counter trend trading technical rules
1: Price has diverged/pushed away from the 200SMA by a good distance
2: Price should be attacking a strong support/resistance zone
Just wanted to pop in and show my support for your Charity trading contest with Michael. It is a great idea, and I do look forward to the event in January!
Also I agree with your stance that you don’t need to prove yourself to anybody. The material either holds water… or it doesn’t, and that is for the individual trader to determine. And if you ever ask for money… that is also at their discretion to give it to you or not. These “scam police” are completely unneccessary. New traders are adults and should be allowed to give money to who they please.
Back when I first started out trading, one of the things that I used to struggle with was trailing stops, and maximizing my profits, I used to either cut winners short, or my trailing stop would be inconsistent and fail me.
One of the things I was taught was to trail the stop using the 200SMA, then the 100SMA and also the 60EMA depending on the movement, but the swings often left a lot of profit on the table. And to be honest this way of trailing wasn’t fitting the way I wanted to trade, and the methods I had been taught.
One of the senior traders where I was based, then introduced me to the 12% concept, this is what really transformed the way I trail stops and allows me to maximize my profits. If there is a strong trend taking shape, then 8/10 times the 12% concept will literally let you catch 80-90% or the current move or extension by trailing the stop based on a set guide.
So what exactly is the 12% concept?
Well its a modified fib scale, basically we bin all of the fib levels and create a series of 12% follow through levels.
The scale starts at 0, 12, 24, 36, 48, 60, 72, 84, 96, 108, 122, 134, 146 ect.
This scale can also be used as support and resistance as well as entry levels, but thats another topic. I’m going to outline how to use it for trailing your stop and maximizing your profit here.
As you know, I’m obsessed with the 200SMA, like other institutional traders or Ex like my self, the 200SMA is the golden ticket. I love to base my analysis on the 200SMA and many of my entries come from the 200SMA, but not all of them. If I’m buying or selling from the 200SMA, may that be the daily or the 1 hour, then I’m maximizing my chances of entering at the start of a new trend, or at lest entering on the beginning of a trend extension. Therefore, I want to maximize the move and earn the most I can, thats when the 12% concept comes into play.
I want to measure the most recent or past major swing in the market using the 12% modified fib scale. This is going to give me a series of levels with a gap of 12% between each one.
When you enter the market, your waiting for price to break and close above the immediate next level, once you see that happen, you can move the stop loss to cost and this is where it stays until price starts to break and close past the following levels.
After you have moved to cost, we want price to open and close in your direction past the next level, we can then start trailing the stop up one level each time after that happens.
Remember that rule… price must Open & Close past the level and be a bull/bear candle based on your trading direction before trailing the stop loss up one level. So if your long, then there must be a green open and close above the broken level. Reverse for sells with a red candle ope/close.
Lets take a look at a recent trade to show this in detail…
The black arrow represents the entry at the 1 hour 200SMA, my RSI is oversold and printing bullish divergence. This level was also technical support, what else could you ask for an entry?
Once I have entered the market, and placed my stop, I then wait for a low to be established, after this happens, I draw the 12% scale from the recent major swing high, to the new established swing low.
This provides me with my trailing stop scale.
Okay lets follow this chart move by move here it is again.
O/C 24% - Price breaks above 24% and prints a green candle that opens and closes above. The stop gets moved to cost.
O/C 36%-48% - Price breaks above both the 36 and 48% levels and prints a follow up green candle that that opens above 36 but closes above 48%. In this case the stop moves up to the 24% level.
O/C 60% - Price breaks above the 60 level and then prints a green candle that opens and closes above the 60%. In this case the stop moves up to the 36% level.
O/C 72% - Price breaks above 72% and prints a green candle that opens and closes above it. In this case the stop moves up to the 48% level.
O/C - 96% - Price breaks above the 84% and the 96% levels in one candle, the market then prints a green candle that opens and closes above 96%. In this case the stop moves straight to 72% bypassing the 60%.
O/C 108% - Price breaks the 108% and the 122% with one candle. But in this case there is no green candles that open and close above 122%, yellow circle, but there is a green candle that opens and closes above 108%. In this case the stop moves up to 84% where it still sits untouched.
Using the set 12% concept to trail the stop, you have maximized and made the best of the opportunity that presented itself at the 200SMA.
‘You will notice there is a gap of 14 between the 108 and the 122, this is deliberate to factor in an extension level before the 12% range starts again with higher levels.’
January is the better time as the xmas break is coming up in a few weeks, and I’m away for the last 2 weeks of December and the first week or January. So I think we are looking at maybe the second or third week into January to start.
Has anyone tried looking at the set up themselves before insulting this guy?? Every time someone comes on here they always get hounded with its fake blah blah blah…
If people are genuinely stupid enough to fall for scams ANYWAY, then I would regard that as THEIR fault.
I’m new to this world of forex, but i’m not new to life, and have been scammed in many ways…“Clever People learn from others mistakes. Average people learn from their own mistakes. Stupid people never learn.”
Saying that, I have had the luck/oppurtunity to experience (not many, still not won the lottery) , “too good to be true” situations in life, hence I have an open mind and take things as they come.
Have an open mind to LIFE, not only forex…
I am following this thread, but my reason is not to use his method to trade, but rather to gather more information about trading. In the last couple of weeks, I have managed to finally (somehow) make a small profit in my demo account! Trading the way I like!!
I do find it hard to believe someone with a vast amount of wealth would spend time trying to help others, especially with all the naysayers on this board…and that is an even bigger reason I am following here…I would like to see Andrew prove all you naysayers wrong.
Anyways…it’s 1.10am and im still hungover to FU-dge from last nights shenanigans.
Also, good on you Andrew for trying to help others, as I currently can’t fault what you are trying to do.
"[I]That is what causes the movements that you see in the morning at the open, it is NOT the banks playing trickery - pokery with you or anyone else, and trying to perused you that price is going to trend that way or another.
You can call it Judas Swing, Judas Priest or whatever fancy name you can drill up, but the theory from ICT is inaccurate about the banks trying to trick you at the open sorry to say, the banks don’t care about you, you are nothing to them, your money and your account is insignificant and pocket change to them. As I have said, the movements are liquidity based from dealing desks filling their client books[/I]."
So we keep things honest folks… what I stated about the “Judas Swing” is it to run to where the orders are… and the Novice or Retail Traders react to these moves and thus get slaughtered. This Price Action is precisely to run the money from the market as a Stop Hunt… it’s not all Retail Stops and Institutions get slaughtered too.
Humans being humans… they are predictable and Dealers, Traders, Retail… they are dance to the same drum. I dubbed it a Judas Swing for teaching purposes but you stretch too far in saying it is not to manipulate… because it is indeed that very thing. If I am sitting with orders I need to fill I will trade into the logical areas of “Stops” and or Pending Limits… it is very simple and very true.
This event is also referred to in my work as “Pairing of orders”. It is predictable… measurable and repeats nearly every day. Large funds provide large pockets of liquidity… these many times are blown out in LO and I have sat in the presence of this very thing being done. So while we might disagree for name sake or philosophy or premise… it takes nothing away from the fact this is precisely what’s going on.
Sorry for the Break In and Public Service Message :57:
Just ignore idiots, thats what I’m doing. They have posted so much BS that now they actually believe what they post, its funny in a way. They actually think I’m someone else which is quite amusing. I have nothing to prove to anyone here or who thinks their the admin of this forum, thats another funny point, pathetic individuals with the only purpose in life is to post nonsense about people on a forum, sad, very sad.
But anyway, who cares what a small group of idiots behind a computer screen think or say.
The methods I have out lined here (The higher time frame top-down method, 15 minute chart method and the trailing stop 12% concept) are all on here with full details on how to use them. I suggest you demo trade them methods or at least one of them, then if you start to see results and gain confidence, move to small stakes before going full risk.
I suggest you try the 1 hour chart stuff with the daily chart, and use the 12% concept. Combine what I have taught with support and resistance and trend lines.
I’m not saying its going to turn you into a highly profitable trader, as everyone has different learning curves and understanding, but at the very least it should help you filter out a lot of bad and weak trades, and replace those with better opportunities to analyze.
Try sticking to the majors and some of the cross rates to start with.
I know you dubbed it a Judas Swing for teaching purposes, I was just making friendly light of it.
What I wrote in my [B]full post[/B] is pretty much exactly what you are saying. I did clearly mention that the DD’s run the closest to market orders to fill their books, thats what my post was all about and detailing. Also I to have done more than sit it the presence of it being done.
Thanks for the post. Good to see something trading related here.
So far I loved every single post of yours. The reason for that is because it’s very easy to follow. I like it that you don’t diverge and keep it short and to a point.I instantly could see how and when to enter the rules and this latest post on trailing stops sounds promising.
This might be one of the easiest to understand trading methods I came across. So well done for that.
I do have 2 questions
Do you trail your stops manually? wait for price to close above a % line and modify the stop, or is there another way of doing it ea our anything else?
Is this your primary method of trading ?
Thanks keep it up…
I trail the stops manually as thats my preference.
I wont be updating this thread until the new year when I start back with the charity account. I think there is enough info on this thread to get you started and practicing.
Thanks very much Andrew for your 15 minute trading system that you posted. I read your thread over the weekend and decided thats the method for me based on the 2 you have shown.
I’m new to forex (4 weeks) so I needed something to start with. I have 3 trades one is now closed and 2 still open but have moved stop to entry and took some profit off the table.
I shorted the USD/CHF at the Asian open last night as per your system off the 15m 200sma +28 pips and now closed. This morning I bought GBP/USD off the 15m 200sma and its currently +20 pips. I have took 50% off and moved stop to entry. Looking for 1.6070 as overall target.
I have also shorted USD/JPY off the 15m 200sma and took 50% off at +20 and moved stop to entry. I’m looking for 82.00 overall target.
