EXODIA EA (Developer Diary)

[Proximus]

Ok this thread will be my developer diary or log for my EXODIA named Expert Advisor, which i develop on my own.I will show you what is a robot capable of, to those who are skeptic about automated trading.I develop this EA for atleast 4 months, of course at the beginning it was not profitable, but now it is and i will walk you through my robot’s lifetime,from birth to success (and never dying of course :),this will be and immortal EA that will always work), and when it will be good enough i will put it into forward test, and eventually on a real account later.

NOTE: This is not an advertisement,promotion or spam in anyway, i`m NOT selling here anything , this is just for educational purpose, a preview of my work,so moderators please don’t delete this thread.

Ok so here it begins:

ENTRY #1: VERSION 1.5

[ul]
[li]Im already at version 1.5 which is the first version that is profitable in the long run too.The EA is a scalper EA as you have noticed and it scalps a secret pattern which i will not tell you, but what i can tell is that only works at TF above or equal to M15. [/li][li]The EA uses both flexible and mechanic entries because i saw that this works the best [/li][li]The EA is based on a system with HIT & RUN tactics so the position size is very small, risk is almost none, drawdown is only an illusion, and profit is decent [/li][li]Here is a preview on M15, it works fine but still has its flaws because it takes sometime many losing trades, although it still ends in profit, im not satisfied so it will need many many fixings in the future.
[/li][li]The EA does use indicators so for the indicator skeptic trader fellows, all i can tell you that indicators do work, so you may like trading only on price-action, still that doesn’t mean that indicators are BS.
[/li][li]This is not a Holy Grail because it has many losing trades, this is just a normal working strategy that really works without a doubt, and this EA is only the least thing expected from any trader, because it will not make huge profits but only stable normal profits that you should expect even from yourself
[/li][/ul]
Here are some pictures of preliminary backtests:

EUR/USD 2012-2013

GBP/USD 2012-2013

USD/CHF 2012-2013

USD/JPY 2012-2013

And here is the full backtest statement: EXODIA BACKTEST.zip (1.92 MB)

[Proximus]

ENTRY #2: VERSION 1.8

[ul]
[li]From here now i will post only version changes that do stabilize the EA, so as you’ve guessed version 1.6 and 1.7 were not that good improvements, but v1.8 really stabilized and improved the EA [/li][li]I`ve changed the entry signals, the pattern on which is based the EA, got tightened and more strict approach needed.Also changed a few indicator’s code to make them less lagging, because that lagg really caused a bit of problem [/li][li]Found a bug on which the bot would enter to trade big gaps, but in the losing direction, so now i set that it should not trade only good gaps or the ones that happen when the trade is active [/li][li]Also modified the account risk of the EA, from now on it will have a maximum of 5% account risk, i may lower this value later but now this is good for testing [/li][/ul]

Here are the numerical improvements on an EUR/USD 2012-2013 chart based on 10.000 trades (it has this much/same benefits/improvements/results on all charts all timeframes and pairs)

Bars in test
26007
26007

Ticks modelled
41190278
41190278

Modelling quality
90.00%
90.00%

Mismatched charts errors
0
0

Initial deposit
10000
10000

Total net profit
308.65
348.73
+40.08

Gross profit
722.71
731.97

Gross loss
-414.06
-383.24

Profit factor
1.75
1.91

Expected payoff
0.03
0.03

Absolute drawdown
2.03
1.97

Maximal drawdown
12.86 (0.13%)
11.10 (0.11%)

Relative drawdown
0.13% (12.86)
0.11% (11.10)
-0.02

Total trades
10000
10000

Short positions (won %)
4935 (10.35%)
4940 (10.18%)

Long positions (won %)
5065 (11.67%)
5060 (11.90%)

Profit trades (% of total)
1102 (11.02%)
1105 (11.05%)
+0.03

Loss trades (% of total)
8898 (88.98%)
8895 (88.95%)

Largest
Largest

profit trade
12.12
10.4
-1.72 (not that much loss compared to the success)

loss trade
-5
-5

Average
Average

profit trade
0.66
0.66

loss trade
-0.05
-0.04
-0.01

Maximum
Maximum

consecutive wins
3 (3.19)
3 (1.48)

consecutive losses
48 (-3.08)
54 (-1.65)

Maximal
Maximal

consecutive profit
12.12 (1)
10.40 (2)

consecutive loss
-5.52 (2)
-5.34 (11)

Average
Average

consecutive wins
1
1

consecutive losses
9
9

And here is the visual change, although not much difference can be seen with naked eye, it look a bit more smoother and upward curved if you look closely

V1.5

V1.8

[Proximus]

ENTRY #3: VERSION 3.4

Well this one is a huge update, i reconfigured and improved many many things, here are the major changes:
[ul]
[li] New pattern found, and i`ve implemented it to be traded also [/li][li] Automatic order closing is now closing orders after a different criteria [/li][li] Some consolidation and low volume situations are now not traded by the bot, aswell as some high volatility situations where the price whipsaws or spikes alot [/li][li] Basic money management added, well not that sophisticated yet but the EA tries to trade only 2:1 RR situations if it can [/li][li] Some minor bugs fixed with slippage and timing orders [/li][/ul]

Here is the numerical change since the last version:

NAME/VERSION
V1.8
V3.4

Bars in test
26007
26007

Ticks modelled
41190278
41190278

Modelling quality
90.00%
90.00%

Mismatched charts errors
0
0

Initial deposit
10000
10000

Total net profit
348.73
666.94

Gross profit
731.97
3490.59

Gross loss
-383.24
-2823.65

Profit factor
1.91
1.24

Expected payoff
0.03
0.07

Absolute drawdown
1.97
3.59

Maximal drawdown
11.10 (0.11%)
90.80 (0.84%)

Relative drawdown
0.11% (11.10)
0.84% (90.80)

Total trades
10000
10000

Short positions (won %)
4940 (10.18%)
4990 (68.58%)

Long positions (won %)
5060 (11.90%)
5010 (67.98%)

Profit trades (% of total)
1105 (11.05%)
6828 (68.28%)

Loss trades (% of total)
8895 (88.95%)
3172 (31.72%)

Largest
Largest

profit trade
10.4
10.4

loss trade
-5
-5

Average
Average

profit trade
0.66
0.51

loss trade
-0.04
-0.89

Maximum
Maximum

consecutive wins
3 (1.48)
25 (9.27)

consecutive losses
54 (-1.65)
10 (-42.86)

Maximal
Maximal

consecutive profit
10.40 (2)
28.53 (21)

consecutive loss
-5.34 (11)
-42.86 (10)

Average
Average

consecutive wins
1
3

consecutive losses
9
1

And here is the graphical change:

[Proximus]

I’m working very hard on the strategy, so an update will come soon, but unfortunately i could not find YET better configuration for the system, since when you achieve so high winrate like here, you cant really go further that easy.So i decided to add a martingale system to the EA, just for fun

The EA is not martingale based at all, or any other unsustainable theory, but i just added martingale to it to really test the martingale system and its relialability.You know for a martingale system to be profitable you need the following conditions to be true:

-Winrate over 51% and Risk Reward ratio over or equal to 1:1
OR
-Infinite money, to always cover the losses

Now we certainly don’t have infinite money but we do have an average RR of 1.01 :1 and a win rate of 54% at least, so there is no reason why the martingale would fail according to my math calculations.I simulated 1 million trades and the martingale only held when these conditions were true, so its time to test it live.

So a martingale (if profitable) will make us money quicker since we increase the lots sometime.If it would fail then we would blow the account up but that has no way to happen with my EA, the math guarantees it

Let’s compare the martingale types.Here is one of my older (failure EA’s put to martingale):

My old scalper EA:
Martingale level 4 (for safety reasons),EUR/USD,2012-2013,TF: H1, RR under 0.4:1 and winrate also under 50% (total fail):

Not a real success isnt it? :30: This is what happens if the conditions are not met, to use the martingale…

And here is the EXODIA EA:
Martingale level 4 (for safety reasons),EUR/USD,2012-2013,TF: H1, RR 1.01:1 and winrate over 54% (total success):

This is how a proper martingale graph should look like