id be an idiot in trying to forecast when a recession comes.
nobody can do that. the fed employs several hundred people with 50 years experience and school and they never managed in 100 years to forecast when a recession comes more than 2 weeks ahead.
we will get one. how big it will be or when it comes, nobody knows.
in my opinion we are due for a recession already since 2018. too many zombie companies walking around on the earth looking to eat peoples brains.
the washout is overdue. but due to the money pumpin which all central banks did so long, and the BOE is still doing, the inevitable death of zombies has been prolonged.
how long? nobody knows. but the longer we wait for a recession, the harder it will be.