I’m new to forex and so far had only be trying demo account.
I need a bit of explaination from the expert here on eur/usd pair.
On 1st Feb '13, when the NFP was released, why did the pair swing down when the reading was lower then forecast and thereafter move up when higher US ISM Manufacturing PMI was released next. It make me confused as it should be the other way round.
I tried searching for explaination and news from forex expert on this but can’t seem to find any answer… Perhaps someone would be able to explain further…
My guess is that many weak bulls entered market accumulating many stop losses below swing low, so it was lucrative for some big players to go short, because weak bulls will have to exit their position driving market lower. When these dumb bulls were out it was again ready to go up.
I don’t trade news, but from what I have heard it is not the wisest thing to do because of unexpected outcomes. Market often has discounted such information and it is just better to look at chart to grasp sentiment.
Hey, I do not trade with fundamentals a lot but my guess is that focus was on the unemployment rate. At the same time, markets do not react the way we would expect them to. Whenever am trading with fundamentals, i follow the trend regardless of the outcome of the news. And it works for me. Welcome aboard and All the best trading.
When EURUSD traded down immediately after NFP release, it is more a kneejerk reaction as the figure is only slightly lower than forecast.
The market viewed the release as US positive so USD strengthen.
However, when the numbers for US Manufacturing PMI was released favourably, it resulted in EURUSD strengthening, that means EUR gain strength. The reason is because US is still the biggest economy in the world. When US economic numbers are good, it suggests that the US market might be recovering. That spurred ‘risk on’ sentiment in the market. Risk currencies are EUR, GBP, AUD, NZD and CAD. That was the reason why EURUSD rallied after the PMI release.
A lot of intrahour movements are people taking bids off the table. For instance if someone was long and was 600 pips in profit from a large position held for months they were probably thinking - if the NFP is good I will hold, bad then I’ll just take the money. That is normally what happens in these swings and make trading big numbers were profitable (or badly losing) traders decide to exit trades on the result and balance their positions.
You are trying to use news to justify market direction. While fundamentals could have a play in a successful trading methodology, trying to make sense of an individual announcement will only lead you to gambling.