Exto Capital Weekly: Voatility returns

[B]The force of the swings in market momentum continued to be strong this week as the market was dominated with news that created a lot of volatility. [/B] The week was punctuated by a weaker than expected US employment report that pressured the equity indices down to the low end of the weekly trading range.

[B][I]Manufacturing is still strong but employment questions remain.[/I][/B]

[B]The Institute for Supply Management, a trade group of purchasing executives, during the week that manufacturing index dipped to 59.7 in May from 60.4 in April. A level above 50 indicates expansion.[/B] New orders, a gauge of future production, were unchanged at 65.7. Export orders grew despite concerns about growth in Europe and Asia. ISM said its employment index, which measures employers’ willingness to hire, rose 1.3 percentage points to 59.8. New orders, a gauge of future production, were unchanged at 65.7. Export orders grew despite concerns about growth in Europe and Asia.

ISM said its employment index, which measures employers’ willingness to hire, rose 1.3 percentage points to 59.8. Manufacturing activity in Great Britain continued to grow at a quick pace in May, according to the latest Markit/CIPS survey of purchasing managers released Tuesday. The May manufacturing purchasing managers index was unchanged at 58.0, matching the 15-year high posted in April. Economists had forecast the pace to slip to a reading of 57.5. China’s is manufacturing expanded in May. The Purchasing Managers’ Index fell to 53.9 from 55.7 in April, the Federation of Logistics and Purchasing said in an e- mailed statement today, less than the median 54.5 estimate by economists.

[B]The US employment data released on Friday was slightly disappointing.[/B] The US workforce expanded by 431 thousand jobs compared to the 502 thousand that was expected. The key measure of private sector job creation was only 41 thousand compared with expectations for 180 thousand and a 3-month moving average of 155.6 thousand. The fact that the unemployment rate ticked down from 9.9% to 9.7% is not good news as the decline in unemployment was not a function of more jobs but a reflection of people leaving the work force. There were two bright spots though that should not be discounted. The first is the hourly earnings rose 0.3%. This bodes well for income and therefore consumption. In addition, the workweek increased by 0.1 which is roughly the equivalent in terms of output of a bit more than 300 thousand workers. To the north, the employment situation was better than expected. Canada produced 24.7 thousand jobs during the month of May, compared to the 20.7 that was expected by analysts. This follows the very large increase of 108.7 thousand jobs that was produced in April. The Bank of Canada increased rates during the week from .25% to .50%, which in hindsight was the correct decision.

Analysis provided by Exto Capital