Fibonacci Trading

Hi All,

I’m only trading in demo at the moment, but am particularly interested in Fibonacci based trades. I am currently developing rules for a Fibonacci based strategy so thought I would start a thread for me (and others) to post up their Fibonacci charts to practice using Fibs, for constructive criticism and for sharing of ideas.

Here’s an example of what I’m looking at: -


Here I believe there is a potential entry because: -

  1. Daily Timeframe shows a downtrend (Trading in direction of the trend)
  2. Price has retraced from a LL to 61.8% fib
  3. 61.8% fib is at previous Daily Support (now potential resistance)
  4. Stochastic shows overbought.

Any thoughts?

If anyone else is looking at fibs, please post them up as well.

Hey Matt
Looking forward to the thread, Great analysis on this trade. I was looking at it, but at the time gpbusd formed on the shorter time frames, so I traded it instead. Just remember Practice practice on the demo by the time you’re addy to go live there will be no looking back.
Gp

[QUOTE=“gp00053;609591”]Hey Matt Looking forward to the thread, Great analysis on this trade. I was looking at it, but at the time gpbusd formed on the shorter time frames, so I traded it instead. Just remember Practice practice on the demo by the time you’re addy to go live there will be no looking back. Gp[/QUOTE]

Thanks GP, I’ve already refined my rules significantly since discussing on the forums here which has been a big help. More to do yet but I thought this thread could help me and others practice and share learnings.

Feel free to post up your cable trade, I’m sure it will help us novices!!

Nice setup! I think this was also mentioned by Big Pippin in his break-and-retest chart set the other day. Looks like the retracement zone is pretty wide but seems reasonable for a daily time frame. Maybe wait for candlestick confirmation if you’re looking to hop in?

Hi PipDiddy - thanks for your post. Can you tell me what you mean by the following?

I’ve not read anything about retracement zone width. Maybe you could elaborate with some idea of what to look for and why?

I was about to start a thread asking some questions about Fibonacci.

Firstly I have been demo trading for a while and also have a live account on the side, which is making small profits due to the fact I am not able to catch trends as soon as they happen etc.

I have a few questions about this though.

  • Which time frame can I use the Fib tool on? ( I see many people using different time frames, but in saying this can I say draw the Fib on the daily chart and use that same lines on lower time frames?)
  • Very new to Fib so please excuse the dumb questions, I will also try attach a pic or so on but how will I be sure I am using the right swing high and swing low when drawing with the tool? ( Am I looking at the lowest point before it went up?)
  • I prefer using higher time frames rater then the 15 min and 30 min and lower, does this affect my Fib lines in anyway if I were to draw them on the daily chart as when I do draw it on the daily and move down to lower time frames what I find is not the same as in the higher ones, ie I see price bouncing on and off 61.8 level for instance but in lower time frames it goes quite far below what I seen on the higher one?)

I am sorry for asking the obvious I am just really trying to make sure about the correct way to use this as I use MA’s to trade and I wait for the correct setups normally but if I can get into more trades I would be a bit happier.

Thanks so much in advance


As per attachment in my 4HR time frame would you guys say this is the correct position for my FIB lines?

I really appreciate any help


Here’s one I took a few minutes ago


Here.s why I took it
Yen Falls to 1-Week Low on Reduced Haven Demand Tied to Ukraine - Bloomberg

Nothing major coming out about the pair, us has somthing at 10, but I’m in for a short period, so I might have profit before 10 if not I think aud is the strength.

Based on current info went long.
1 hour Trend was confirmed on 4 hour and 30 minute along with news I was looking for a long. Pending order at the following
1 I entered on 50% level (confirmed with Stochastic) 1st take profit is at 0%, (trailing stop after that) Sop loss at 70% retracement,

Thats my storey and I’m sticking to it.
Gp

Hey GP - attachment doesn’t seem to work for some reason. Which market was it?

welcome aboard Icequebe. I’ll give you my view based on my recent learning, but I’m by no means an expert. I’m in the process of demo trading and redefining rules to hopefully develop a profitable method.

I’m told that fibs work on any timeframe, although I’m using the Daily to establish the direction of the trend, and the 4hr or 1hr as my entry TF. I’m also experimenting with dropping down to the 15m to see if I can fine tune an entry using PA techniques.

I’m not sure exactly what you are getting at when you say the lowest point. For me it’s the last combination of Lower Low and Lower High in a downtrend and visa versa in an uptrend.

I think the distance is relative. If you’re trading on the lower time frames a few pips beyond the fib can make a big difference, but it becomes almost irrelevant if trading the daily and hunting a 200 pip move for example. I could be corrected by someone more experienced on this though.

No worries about the type of questions, you’re liable to see a few dumb ones from me as well!!! Might be a good idea to watch this video through. Was passed to me by GP not so long ago and is an excellent resource.

With regards to the charts you posted, the length of the period you have drawn over, it looks far too long for me. I’d be looking just at the last move at the top end of the range. Maybe you could try a piece of software called Jing that captures the part of the screen you’re interested in. Makes it much clearer when you post on the thread. What market is it? I’ll have a look and give you my view.

Don’t know what happened. Seems to be okay now.

Yes, works fine for me now too

Sorry, this pic is a bit messy but if you pull up the XAU/USD 4hr chart you’ll see what I mean


I found this chart really interesting because of the moves in the following stages: -

Move 1: Creates a HL and HH then retraces to 50% before hitting the 127% almost to the pip
Move 2: From the 127% HH retraces to create a HL at the next 61.8% fib before again going on to hit the 127% again almost to the pip.
Move 3: From the 127% HH retraces to create another HL at the next 61.8% before again moving upwards. Where will this one go?

Any observations on this?

NZD/USD and AUD/JPY both making Higher Lows and Higher Highs on Daily TF - watching out for possible retracement and fib action in line with new trend.

CADCHF Daily moving into Fib 50 / 61.8 after series of Lower Highs and Lower Lows


Welcome to the thread. Make your goal not to catch trends at the top or bottom, but some where between them. That’s what is so great with using a Fibonacci Retracement tool, because it helps you to get into the trade. Example. You do your analysis to find the trend. You apply your fib tool. You are looking for the bigger pullbacks rather than the small ones. So you look at your trend and enter on the 62% or 50% fib levels. One you have your entry, next you are looking for your exit, so you use the fib extension tool to find that If you’re not around make it zero, on the Retracement, If you are then using a trailing stop once market goes to zero on Retracement. Just in case your analysis is incorrect, Place your stop loss at the next fib level after your entry. So if you entered on the 50% level, you place your stop at the next level below your entry in this case would be 62% level, make the zero% on the retrace tool as your first profit target. You do this with a pending order so if you’re working or not around you can enter your trade at the right time.

The fib tool works on all time frames and there are pro;s and cons’s for each. So depending on what type of trader you are, will depend on the time frame you use. Example Matt uses mainly the daily. With the daily you’re in a longer term, you may have to wait a little longer for profit, you should move your stop loss 2 levels behind your entry, So if you enter at a 50% retrace, you may want to place your stop loss at the 70+ retrace level. I use the 1 hour and sometimes the 30min time frames. Whatever time frame I use to start with, Once I draw my fib retrace, I go up 1 time frame and down 1 time frame to see if my analysis needs to be tweaked. Rule of thumb, the shorter the time frame the more accurate your analysis and entry has to be.

You can also verify by drawing another fib on the 1 time frame above and 1 time frame below and and use the overlap as a zone. Example. Lets say you use the 50% fib level on the daily, 4 hour fib time frames. The area between the two 50% levels could be your entry zone. Your stop loss would be placed below your bottome 50% level

Try not to concern yourself with more trades. Look more to the longer term and trade quality trades. Example, If you follow this rule to the letter, enter between 50 and 60% retrace levels, put your stop loss at the next fib level below your entry and make your 1st take profit at the zero % retrace level, confirm your entry and exit with simple price action or with stochastic, macd , pivot points ADI, moving average cross, as well as any combination, it will be very hard to you’re your account. Do you know why? If you don’t before you proceed using the fib retrace strategy make sure you can answer that question and burn the answer into your mind and make sure you follow the answer every time.

Here is a video you can watch that will teach you everything you need to know about fibonacci. If you’re smart you will watch it a few times. I still watch it and learn something new everytime.
How to Trade with Fibonacci Levels - YouTube

Good Luck
Gp

Sorry I can’t make chart out. Not your fault mine, anyway, Swing lows and swing highs should be nearest on the time frame you’re using. So if you were using a 4 hour time frame, and you determine it’s an up trend, than you should draw your fib from the most recent swing low to the most recent swing high on the left side of the chart. Once you find it on the 4 hour, it’s a good idea to change time frames to the daily in this example and 1 hour as well to see if your analysis makes sense as well as seeing a better swing low or high that didn’t show on the 4 hour. Again there’s nothing wrong with drawing another fib on the in this case daily and 1 hour to see how the 4 hour measures up or to give you an entry zone. Use your demo to practice, practice and more practice. this is one of those skills the more you do, the better you get

Fantastic. Thank you so much, really appreciate the help guys, I know I should know most of these things before I ask these questions, and believe me it is not like I havent gone through reading and watching videos, I have tried FIB before but did not understand the full concept of it though.

Ie you guys say for instance when I am in an uptred, I draw my fib lines, now once this is done, do I place buy stops or sell stops or do I opt in for buy limits etc?
IE uptrend, do I place pending order for buy limit to hope the price goes further up? Or do I now look to go short this is where I start to struggle, know I should know this by now but I want to make sure about this fully before ever using FIB live

I am still demoing the fibs at the moment

Thanks again for your help guys

Didn’t come across this until now when it’s too late but looks like a lovely set up on the CADCHF 240


.

Reasons to trade: -

  1. Daily timeframe in downtrend
  2. Series of Lower Highs and Lower Highs on 240
  3. Retrace to 50% fib where price has previously rejected as Support and Resistance
  4. Stochastics showing Overbought
  5. Bearish Engulfing Candle engulfs previous 4 bars
  6. Bearish Engulfing candle low taken out by price.

Hey Matthgm, hello…and welcome to the thread…

I am a bit late into this, and I see that there have been some excellent contributions already from the redoubtable gp00053 among others…

May I steer you towards a thread where I was giving some Fibo tips to another forum member?

http://forums.babypips.com/forextown/62188-fibonnacci-question.html

Apologies to you if the thread is not directly answering your question…

Cheers.