Fibonacci/Trend Help

[tomydispik]

I seem to be doing something wrong and want to field this to some of the more experienced traders here.

First, I have been missing the trends. Not entirely, but when I enter the trend seems to take off in the other direction and I end up waiting 1-2 days for the reversal I had intended to catch. Any pointers as to what I can do to predict/catch the right trend?

I usually time my entry points with news releases.

Second, I have been tinkering with the Fibonacci numbers to understand their application. However, the numbers I get are not even applicable unless I apply them at the pip level…ex: 1.00[U][B]12[/B][/U]. Even then they are at times unpredictable.

I multiply to determine DECREASE or RETRACEMENT and divide to determine INCREASE…is that right?

Any help here greatly appreciated!!

[daydreamer65]

This site should help with the fibonacci retracement,

Also your platform should just be able to do this without
working anything out.

Fibonacci Arcs & Retracements - Technical Analysis

First, I have been missing the trends. Not entirely, but when I enter the trend seems to take off in the other direction and I end up waiting 1-2 days for the reversal I had intended to catch. Any pointers as to what I can do to predict/catch the right trend?

I usually time my entry points with news releases.

Change the way you go, if you decide the answer is buy then
sell instead.

[tomydispik]

Thank you Tess and DD.

The time parameters Ive been using are the 1, 15, 30, hour, and daily ranges. With particular emphasis on the 15 and daily to determine entry.

As for the news release trades, I usually wait until after a release or just before if I can determine trend certainty. It has paid off, but not always within the same day.

I often see a reversal of as much as 60 pips before the trend acts as I “predicted”. Taking DDs advice I am starting to think I should apply negative logic to my entry/exit.

What’s your primary (template) timeframe tomy? I guess you’re observing these trends from a specific chart timeframe? Really need to know that before offering any hints & tips.

Why are you timing your entries based around news releases??

These occurances can often whip & spike price around the chart pretty violently, particularly if the economic release prints drastically out of whack with it’s consensus number.

You need to be very mindful of these releases! I sure wouldn’t base my entries on those unpredictable animals. Why not wait a while till all the knee-jerk (if any) reactions have been absorbed into the price? That might just offer you a more sedate entry into a possible trade.

Regards the Fib question: Don’t tinker!

As daydreamer mentioned, virtually all chart programs now include the Fib level parameters. All you gotta do is configer your high-low zones & they’ll plot the appropriate lines for you, including the extension levels if you so require.

I’d treat them as guages or zones of interest rather than exact levels of trade decision if I were you.

They’re merely another complimentary assistor to observing price activity as it meanders on it’s journey. Like Pivots, sometimes they react when price approaches a particular area or zone, sometimes they don’t. They’re best utilized as [B]part[/B] of the overall price behaviour observation!