First Chart Posting ... Comments appreciated


decided to post my first chart and get some feed back re my retracement level selection. also, based on price action, some previous divergence at the 9/18/11 mark, and oversold conditions, this pair seems like a nice ride north could take place. thoughts … comments?? thanks!!!

Outside up bar with a fresh high on the daily is a good sign too.

Don’t know how high it will go, but north is likely the direction.

Don’t know that I would buy in right now. My ideal entry would have put me in last night at .9700 long. But I wasn’t paying attention:D

It’s a counter trend trade, so IMHO, no no no.

So many traders on here seem to try and find counter trend trades all the times, Ok some of them are bound to work out, but on the whole if you want easier and more consistent trading, go with the trend.

Agree with PPF. I have traded this pair a fair bit over the past few weeks, we had a strong uptrend for a good while which gave some consistent pips. However recently we rejected a good high (just over the 1.1000 level, from memory, but don’t quote me!) and have now put in a lower higher followed by a lower low on the Daily. Price broke south through parity recently. Currently I am staying out - there are, imho, clearer opportunities elsewhere and I did not want to push my luck with this pair! - but my current bias is short until the chart tells me otherwise, and it is currently not telling me otherwise.

Across all Pairs, Price rarely moves for too long in one direction without some form of retracement, so that is what we could be seeing currently. 0.9930 was a good S/R level for this pair, so personally I would wait and see what reaction we get there before jumping in - if anything, I am hoping it high tests out of that level at which point I might look at going short.

Yes, there was a countertrend opportunity to go long from the Resistance encountered around 0.9700, but given that the low of yesterday’s Daily bar was some 70 pips south of there, the Stop might have been hit depending on the Entry style used. I generally agree with PPF regarding countertrend trades - I take some, but would not have fancied this one given the overall shape and recent behaviour of the Pair. But I am conscious that I am more risk-averse than many traders (from what I read on this site at least, lol!)

Anyway, just my take - the fun of Forex is that many people can make many cases for many approaches and not necessarily be wrong.

(There is a lot of discussion of this in happypip’s comdolls thread, definitely worth a read if you fancy trading this Pair)

ST

This is one of my most favorite pairs. And that is a good thread in the comdolls section. My view of this pair is long but not here not now. Yes that looks to be a valid trade but I need a little more confirmation than just what you are looking at. The only reason my view is bullish in a clearly bearish market is what goes down must come up but that does not mean it will do that today. You will see on the 1 hr a small trend starting to want to form to the upside (or at least last night anyway) but even then I would wait to at least see the 4 hr confirm the trend had begun before making any moves either way. In my opinion the daily chart is just screaming momma said to knock you out. So unless you want to be knocked out I would stay away.

And presumably if the OP wanted to take the Long, they would have looked for a tighter Entry on a lower timeframe, rather than just entering off the Daily - there were a couple of options on the Hourly chart yesterday afternoon (London time), maybe the low test that marks the higher low around 1500, that would have hit a decent target this afternoon, but I didn’t trade it for the reasons outlined in my earlier post.

I appreciate the comments. I agree that finding an entry would have been difficult, and most likely I would have been knocked out.

It looks like the bears are just catching their breath. I’d either wait for more confirmation it’s going back up, or just wait for the next drop. One never knows which direction it’ll take, but this looks like a bearish chart to me, as such I’d only look to be taking shorts.