The excess of negative sentiment on Mxn is MXN is decreasing, but it’s still not the time to go long, I would await a net short of the hedge funds.
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 34%, LS - 26%, SS - 45% /
The large change in Trader’s positions suggest that prices will drop. Of course we never should forget to look at the bigger picture. If we open a longer chart, we can find that not long ago we were in a very bearish looking cot extreme situation (commercials net long). Traders are moving away from these extreme territories, and as they do, prices are rallying.
Cocoa
COT Extreme / All-Time COT extreme levels in C and LS /
Last week’s comment is still alive: prices should reach a top soon.
5-Year Note
COT Extreme / C-408 report, LS – 293 report, SS – 411 report COT extreme /
Judging by last week’s price reaction, we may have reached the bottom.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 44%, LS - 36%, SS - 26% /
The large change in Trader’s positions may shake prices a bit (we could see declining prices), but in the medium/long term, I don’t see, why prices could not rally further. Since the last major cot extreme, prices are again going higher/stress levels are decreasing. I may be wrong, but I would expect a larger, close to All-Time cot extreme to signal the top.
British Pound
COT Change (52W) / C – 24%, LS - 28%, SS - 11% /
The cot change and the relative extreme in the market may put an end to the rally. The fact that only Small Speculators are optimistic about the rally is also a bearish signal. Of course one may argue: stress levels in British Pound are not at their peak levels yet, thus prices can rally further… well, as always, I urge everyone to look not only at the cot data, but use it together with other TA tools. Simply looking at a longer chart, it is clearly visible, that prices are not far from important resistance levels.
Corn
COT Extreme / C-448 report, LS – 449 report COT extreme /
If we look at a longer chart, we can see that all obvious bottoms in prices correlated with major cot extremes, when commercials were net long. This is the situation right now.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 42%, LS - 29%, SS - 54% /
COT Extreme / C-553 report, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The huge change in Trader’s positions and the All Time cot extreme both are very strong bearish signals… the rally be over for some time now.
USD Index
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 26%, SS - 18% /
If we analyze the past one year of the USD Index, we can find that it reacted pretty well to cot change signals. In the latest report we can find a larger that average change, which can be considered a bullish signal.
Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
Stress levels are high, we are expecting prices to reach a top soon.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
It seems that the U.S. Shutdown has an effect on us, people who follow the cot reports. The CFTC has stopped issuing the reports for now. Let’s hope that this situation will not last very long!
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
CFTC has resumed publishing the cot reports, they are up-to-date again!
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Soybean Meal
COT Change (52W) / C – 31%, LS - 36%, SS - 18% /
If we look at the last one year, we can find that similar large changes in Trader’s positions preceded the rallies. Although we don’t have a large extreme in the cot report, the recurring patterns seem to be convincing.
Nasdaq-100
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
There is an unquestionable bull market here… even if we’ve got an All Time cot extreme that is indicating a top, we should be very careful entering against the obvious trend. Of course the Risk/Reward on such a trade could be pretty tempting
Cocoa
COT Extreme / C, LS – All Time COT extreme /
The large cot extreme in Cocoa has been present for many weeks now, but without any real price reaction. Still, I think there is great opportunity here, so we shouldn’t forget about this market!
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
(Sorry for my late update… I took a little holiday :), just came back yesterday)
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 30% /
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The very large change in Trader’s positions and the unquestionable extreme in the market both suggest prices should go higher. This, together with close support levels adds up to an exciting trading opportunity that should be investigated more closely.
Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 25%, LS - 38% /
COT Extreme / C – 334 report, LS – 331 report COT extreme /
The even greater change last week could not affect prices positively, so I’m not expecting the recent changes to do any better… the extreme has been present for almost a year now, but the down trend is obviously intact. Trading this market to the upside looks pretty risky, even though we’ve got large stresses built up in it.
Cotton
COT Extreme / C – 52 report, LS – 50 report COT extreme /
Commercials have again become net long, only small speculators are holding short contracts… If we investigate the historical charts, we can see that usually prices bottomed out, when we had a similar case. The volume and open interest scores also support the bullish bias that we have.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
5-Year Note
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 22%, SS – 19% /
Looking at a longer chart, we can see how the recent cot extreme managed to push prices higher. The bearish signal coming from the latest report (large changes in Traders positions) suggests that we could see a bit of a decline in prices, but let’s not forget the strength of a cot extreme signal --> until we reach an opposite cot extreme (Large Specs above 300.000 contracts for example), I believe the last extreme is still in place.
Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 335 report, LS – 332 report COT extreme /
I hope everyone took my advice last week and stepped away from this market 
As we can see, even though we’ve got this close to all time cot extreme in the market, prices don’t seem to bother… I believe (but it’s really just my feeling) that we will stress levels in Japanese yen rise even further.
Wheat
COT Extreme / C – 20 report, LS – 79 report COT extreme /
Analyzing the historical chart, we can see how well wheat reacts to cot signals. This time, we’ve got a bullish type cot extreme in the market that’s telling us: prices should start climbing soon.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Dow Jones-30
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 24%, SS – 22% /
Without the large cot extreme, this change in Trade’s positions is not enough for me to really seriously consider a larger short trade… I’m not convinced.
Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 336 report, LS – 335 report COT extreme /
The picture still seems to me more bearish than bullish, even if we’ve got this enormous (but still not All Time!!) cot extreme. I do believe that we can see further increase of the stress level present in this market, maybe even to all time levels, before prices reach a bottom.
Rough Rice
COT Extreme / C – 22 report, LS – 108 report COT extreme /
Interesting to see, how different the picture is on a longer chart that on a shorter one… If we look from high above, we see more of a bullish type cot extreme, but as we narrow down our perspective, we can see the relative extremes that were pushing prices back down.
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Someone please get this spaming dbag out of BP
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 28% /
We’ve got our two major cot analysis tools pointing the opposite way this week: the change in Trader’s positions was large, suggesting prices should decline, but the last great cot extreme in the market that started the recent rally is still in place. Of course “worry we should not” (Yoda:)), cause their timing is different… even if we experience a bit of a decline now (which judging by the effectiveness of cot change signals in copper, I expect), the wider picture seems to support the continuation of the rally.
Sugar
COT Change (52W) / C – 22%, LS - 28% /
COT Index (3yr lookback) / C – 63%, LS - 43%, SS – 29% /
It’s wonderful to see, how the recent bearish cot extreme ended signaled the recent top and how Traders have moved away from their extremes as prices decline. The change suggests prices could have a “bit of a break” in the decline, but since we are not that close to a bullish cot extreme (would be the case if C reached >20.000 contracts net long / LS reached <10.000 contracts net short), I expected prices to continue the decline.
Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
The very large stress that has built up in Cocoa market indicates that the fuel in this recent rally is running out…
I wish all of you good luck to this week’s trading,
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
On a different forum, I’ve received a request to give my view on the EUR and JPY markets. Not to leave you out from it, I’ll post it here as well! (hope you don’t mind )
EUR/USD
On the attached chart I’ve indicated with bold circles on Commercials graph those points in time, when we had an All Time/close to All Time COT extreme. The horizontal green and red lines indicate the recent All Time cot extremes (again for Commercials, but obviously Large Speculators are there too).
I think, but the COT Index supports my belief (C – 33%, LS – 73%), that we are getting closer to a bearish cot extreme. We are not there yet, the last major cot extreme (bullish) that we had back in mid-2012 is still in place.
If Commercials could go below the last major bearish cot extreme (indicated with a red horizontal line) / build up >120.000 contracts net short or even more, we would be at a level of extreme that could finish the rally.
Since the last major cot extreme, I’ve marked also some relative extremes that show how they affected prices. The last one as you can see is a bullish on, that could stay in affect for a few more weeks, before another bearish once happens. These relative cot extremes are much harder to find, thus I don’t even recommend to use them with such assurance as a All Time or close to All Time cot extreme.
JPY/USD
I think it is more difficult to make up our mind here, because of the commercial capitulation that we had roughly a year ago… As you can see, prices did not react to the bullish cot extreme, instead they heavily fell. Currently we have a greater extreme, but still not an All Time. If you look at the 15 year long chart I’ve attached, you can see that the much wider picture easily allows further decline for prices… On the other hand, it wouldn’t be completely foolish to go long either, since the cot index shows a great extreme (C – 98%!, LS – 2%!, SS – 18%) and we could find great support levels not far, that would give our trade a great Risk/Reward ratio.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 27%, LS - 23% /
The large cot extreme that we had in early November signaled well the bottom in coffee… now we have this large change in Trader’s positions, which I believe will push prices down a bit.
Copper
COT Change (52W) / C – 23%, LS - 31% /
Again another large change after last week… if this dynamic selling of commercials continues in the next few weeks, we will reach a bearish cot extreme pretty fast. Of course ‘IF’ as I said…
Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
When will the bubble burst? That’s the big question here… let’s keep our eyes on this market, there’s a great potential on the bearish side now.
I wish all of you MERRY CHRISTMAS!!!
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 28%, LS - 30% /
The last major cot extreme (a couple of reports ago) is in effect in my opinion. The change we’ve got suggests that prices may rally a bit.
Cocoa
COT Extreme / C & LS – All Time COT extreme /
The extreme is still present as slowly growing even larger. Prices are unable to further rally, thus it may easily be that we’ve reached a top.
Japanese Yen
COT Extreme / C – 339 report, LS – 338 report COT extreme /
The extreme is Huge, but as you can see, not All Time yet… I think there’s still space left for the decline.
HAPPY NEW YEAR TO ALL OF YOU!!!
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Heating Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 13%, LS – 12%, SS – 12% /
It’s a difficult situation, because the last major cot extreme is still in place (bullish cot signal that has been able to push prices higher), the change is a bearish signal that may be late a bit (prices have been falling heavily the last couple of days)… Small Speculators may be helpful this time: if you look at them, they are relatively extreme now = very bullish. The last time they were at such levels, prices reached a top.
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C – 170 report, LS – 159 report COT extreme /
We’ve got a more clearer picture here: COT extreme is very large, but if you look at a longer (let’s say 15 year) chart, you will find even greater extremes… this means that the rally can go on, but we should be ready for a change in this trend.
British Pound
COT Index / C – 12%, LS – 77%, SS – 94% (!) /
We have reached a bearish cot extreme level in GBP, especially Small Speculators. If you look at the chart, you’ll find how well GBP reacts to cot signals.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Palladium
COT Change (52W) / C – 21%, LS – 21% /
The 21% change in large Trader’s positions is a bearish cot signal that says prices will decline and looking at the chart we might have a sense that it is quite possible. Without a clear cot extreme signal, I would say that it’s the most that we can say now…
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 167 report COT extreme /
Commercials have reached their all time extreme level and Large Speculators aren’t that far from it either… keep watching this interesting market that I believe holds great shorting opportunities.
Copper
COT Extreme / C – 45 report, LS – 46 report COT extreme /
The extreme in copper is becoming pretty large, we may carefully start looking for shorting opportunities…
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Natural Gas
COT Change (52W) / C – 32%, LS – 37% /
COT Index / C – 4%, LS – 93%, SS – 93% /
Both of our main cot signals are pointing in the same direction. The huge change in Large Speculators and Commercials positions (possibly the largest in the last year) is suggesting prices will fall in the near term, but also the extreme we have now paints a pretty bearish picture.
Soybean Oil
COT Change (52W) / C – 20%, LS – 28% /
COT Index / C – 97%, LS – 1%, SS – 18% /
Similarly to Natural Gas, we’ve got the cot change and cot extreme signals pointing in the same direction (up). The last two extremes, when Traders were holding roughly the same amount of contracts, you can see that the rallies that followed were short living… question is, would we see this happen again or is the trend going to finally change.
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C – All Time, LS – 171 report COT extreme /
We’ve reached an All Time cot extreme in Commercials, and Large Specs are almost there… Stress level is huge in this market today. To be honest, I don’t see that these extremes were always helpful signals here. If we look at the extreme in 2010, you can see that it did not have a trend changing, longer term effect. The extreme is large – no question to that – but all time extremes can be present in a market for many weeks before we see a reaction from prices.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
S&P-500
COT Change (52W) / C – 33%, LS – 36% /
COT Index / C – 26%, LS – 65%, SS – 83% /
Although we’ve got a large change in Trader’s positions that is a bullish signal, I believe that the large cot extreme that has been present in indexes for some time now is the stronger signal we should be aware of. The big question of course: have we really reached maximum stress level? If we look at the past one year, you can see that the down legs were always short living…
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 342 report, LS – 341 report COT extreme /
Analyzing the market on a shorter time frame, we may come to conclusion that we’ve reached a bearish cot extreme. I believe it is always very important to scale out even more and see the much wider picture. I think in the past 4-5 years, we were closer to a bullish cot extreme and the rally we are experiencing now may continue even more. An unquestionable bearish cot extreme would be the case if LS were above 50-70.000 contracts net long.
Canadian Dollar
COT Extreme / C, SS – All Time COT extreme /
The situation in CAD looks pretty easy now, since all major participants of the market are at extreme levels. Looking at the charts, I hope it is clear by now for all of you that it is a bullish picture. It is important to keep in mind though, that cot all time extremes may be present in a market for a few weeks, before prices actually react -> I’m not saying that we’re at the bottom now, just warning you that because of the huge stress in the market, we should see a change in the trend eventually.
All the best,
Dunstan
Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Japanese Yen
COT Change (52W) / C – 35%, LS – 33%, SS – 16% /
Changes in Trader’s positions above 30% in currencies are definitely huge changes that shouldn’t be neglected. This may affect prices in the near term, pushing them lower. Let’s always look at the longer term picture, because it may show us a different view of the market. You may see that not long ago, we have reached close to all time extreme levels that seem to match with the latest bottom. If this trend in traders positions continue (Commercials decrease their net long contracts / LS the opposite), then we may be in for a rally.
Natural Gas
COT Extreme / C – 345 report, LS – 342 report COT extreme /
The situation in Natural Gas has not changed from last week, the extreme widened a bit more. We still need to decide how to view the extreme. On a shorter time frame, we are at a bearish extreme, but if we look longer, we can see that we’ve still got room left for all Trader’s, they’ve not reached their all time extreme levels.
Mexican Peso
COT Extreme / C – 112, LS – 197 report COT extreme /
We’ve reached an extreme that in the past successfully affected prices, the one we have of course is a bullish cot extreme: Commercials have roughly 45.000 contracts net long, Large Speculators have about the same amount net short, while Small Speculators are close to 0. If we analyze the historical charts, you can find how well these levels were supports for price.
All the best,
Dunstan
Nice to see a thread on COT. Open interest is really important because in zero sum markets you need to know the order flow. COT is great for that. You are spilling the beans…You still need to decipher those typed format the futures commission produces.