Hi everyone,
The latest Commitments of Traders review is out.
Coffee
COT Change (52W) / C – 37%, LS – 39%, SS – 23% /
The dynamic rally we had in the last two weeks generated heavy selling from Commercials, while Large Speculators are once again long. This large change in my opinion shouldn’t be too emphasized, since not long ago we have had a great extreme in the market. The picture to me looks, as if the trend has finally changed and I believe we will be witnessing much higher prices in the next few months.
Cocoa
COT Extreme / LS – All Time COT extreme /
As prices go higher and higher, we can see how bigger the cot extreme becomes. Of course it’s hard to tell when will we reach the top, but it definitely seems to be a market with great potential to the downside.
Live Cattle
COT Extreme / C , LS – All Time COT extreme /
I could simply repeat myself here --> The extreme is so large, that eventually we will find ourselves in a bear market.
COT Analysis – Timing issue
People might say, reading my comments about Cocoa and Live Cattle that it wasn’t too helpful, because the biggest question is still missing an answer --> when??? When will we reach the top? I would like to make it clear… following the cot report week by week, you will not be able to pin point exact turns in the market (I don’t think there are any other tools out there that can do this either). BUT (!) similarly to volcano eruptions, scientists are able to determine that stresses deep in the mountain are rising. In my opinion, this is the way to look at cot analysis, cot extremes too. We should get ready that change will come.
Knowing this information, you may start exiting your long positions in these markets (taking profits) if you have any, you may re-adjust your stops (lowering risks) OR you may gradually start building up short position (obviously keeping in mind, what I have just said and knowing that the extreme may widen even more!).
Options – if available – are great tools in these circumstances (OTM options with low volatility and min. 2-3 month time value), because you have a fix and limited risk, with huge reward potential if and when price do react to these cot signals.
All the best,
Dunstan