The Euro has been stalling in the past couple of days, drop halted
With Janet Yellen speaking at the opening remarks of the Kansas City Federal Reserve’s annual economics symposium, we would be betting that she will not be sounding very good for the dollar. Not a big trend change, but certainly not much room to rally for the US dollar against the Euro in the coming session.
If we look at the charts, binary options on the EUR/USD have been hovering around the 1.3270 area. This is a level where we would be keen to proceed to buy daily call options for tonight’s expiry as the pair has dropped quite substantially lately without any material correction.
The Euro has been lately pressured by the statement by from the European Central Bank in the beginning of the month that Europe is on a different monetary policy course to “other major policymakers”. However there is not much merit for Mario Draghi to communicate further policy decisions in Jackson Hole as many traders expect.
We would be focusing on buying the Euro around the hard support level on the chart seen in the 1.3240-50 area precisely because we think that the expectation for Mr. Draghi to put some more on the table is miss-footed.
Janet Yellen is just on the wires and we are seeing no material change in her tone from what was announced earlier this week in the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the latest meeting in July, a great opportunity to buy the Euro for a daily call with expiration for later tonight.
IF we look at the charts only an hourly close below 1.3230 would warrant a further decline towards 1.3200. While in the long run this might be the case and will most likely happen sooner rather then later, we prefer to see 1.3230 vaulted before buying daily puts.
[I]The US dollar is gaining traction into the London closing hours[/I]
The US dollar has been consolidating its gains after recent sessions have sent it to multi-month highs across the board. The Japanese yen has been suffering particularly much as the Bank of Japan governor Haruhiko Kuroda expressed unfounded optimism about the development of the Japanese economy going forward.
The USD/JPY has opened around 104.06 today. As the European open was drawing closer, the pair has experienced a stark decline toward the lower part of the range, ultimately finding a base at 103.80. The consolidation persisted in the next couple of hours.
I am currently recommending to take daily call positions in this pair on any approach towards the 104.00 level. After I see additional buying materializing I am of the opinion that it is very likely to see a close above 104.00, even 104.10.
On the flip side, if we see a decline in prices towards the base set earlier today, we could see a much more protracted decline in the value of the USD/JPY. Hence I am currently recommending to buy daily put options should the prices close below 103.90 on an hourly basis.
The main points which are driving the US dollar trading these days are indeed far away from finance and economics. The political spat between Russia and Ukraine is likely to lead to an increased period of volatility going forward. The main takeaway - be very careful when trading these days.
As we can see on the chart the GBP/USD is struggling within yesterday’s ranges and hasn’t made substantial efforts to break away from 1.6570 and 1.6615 key levels set yesterday. We have seen the pair spike higher in Europe today and drop down lower after Russian forces allegedly entering Ukraine have lead to US dollar buying.
Data from the U.S. today has also been supporting the case for a stronger dollar with the currency nearing yet another 11 month high against the Euro in late European trading. With jobless claims in the US dropping by 1,000 during the last week we are expecting to see a very strong non-farm payrolls number next week.
Looking at the chart of the British pound against the US dollar there are two main scenarios which I would use in my next trading decision. Let’s start with the more favorable - the one where I am seeing a move to the downside. An hourly close below 1.6570 will push to take this trend and buy daily put options for Friday’s expiry.
On the other hand if I see an hourly close above 1.6620 I will be reversing our fortunes and prefer to buy daily calls. That said we are finding this event to be very unlikely from happening until the end of the week and have in mind that due to the Labor Day holiday on the US the trading session will be very thin! Good luck!
With the tensions in Ukraine rising and a new round of sanctions looming over the Russian economy, this can adversely affect the single European currency and of course, us - the binary options traders. We will explore in detail on the fundamental and technical situation which is affecting the EUR/USD pair.
On the one hand we will have the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision coming Thursday and there could be some negative Euro announcements in that next press conference of Mr Mario Draghi, the President of the ECB, however much of the effort to ease monetary policy has already been priced into the market.
So what will the ECB do - in our view nothing unexpected by the market. We have no solid view as to where the Euro will be trading until Thursday, but we do know that the pair has been quite weak for so long, with most of the negative sentiment already in the current price of the EUR/USD.
My recommendation for tomorrow, the 2nd of September is to buy daily calls for Tuesday expiry on the EUR/USD if I see a break above recent ranges. Looking on the chart which is supplied with this forecast I am identifying a couple of key levels. On the downside I would be buying calls around 1.3120, with the reasoning that there is sufficient barrier protection before 1.3100.
If I see an hourly close below 1.3115 this scenario is invalidated and I would be buying daily puts for Tuesday expiry to reverse our position.
On the upside I would be looking for an hourly close above 1.3150 to buy daily call options expiring on Tuesday. And make no big forecasts for the prices on Thursday - there is plenty of data this week, so there is no telling what could happen later on, stick to Binary Options Post for more forecasts on this very interesting forex pair for all binary options traders.
We would be looking for opportunities to buy daily calls on the EUR/JPY pair today with our main focus points centered at levels around the 138.10-15 area. Should we reach those in today’s trading session we have to keep a close eye on the hourly closes.
If we see a test of the level and an hourly close above it we would be buying daily calls on the EUR/JPY at 138.10, however if we see a close below we would be waiting for a test of the 137.60-70 area once again to purchase our binary options on this particular forex pair.
The main reason for the developments is the policy of the Bank of Japan which is currently issuing new currency at the fastest rate of all major central banks. Last year we have already seen a serious depreciation of the yen, now it’s apparent that this trend is going to continue for a while.
Many analysts have voiced their opinions on the topic and quite several have expressed their views that there is no easy way out for the Japanese economy. The way out of the country’s very high debt, is to print more yen to pay it back.
This is why the Japanese yen is very likely to depreciate materially as the local investors are moving their assets away into more higher yielding and higher quality assets. This year the move is rather slow, but this could accelerate to epic proportions and lead to a very serious rebalancing on the forex market.
It’s all about a YES or a NO vote tonight. Scotland is voting in a referendum and the question is “Should Scotland be an independent country?” If we see the NO’s win - the GBP/JPY pair is likely to continue its relentless rally to the upside and possible reach as high as 1.80, however if we see the YES vote take stage, we could be in for a very rocky ride.
If we look at the charts, the picture is simple - we have a support line around 177.38 currently which if broken would result in a very rapid and stark decline towards the base of the whole rally of the GBP/JPY pair experienced in the last trading sessions.
On the other hand a clear break above 139.00 will lead to a sharp rally which could result in a move towards 180.00 Japanese yen for one British pound very quickly. Our view is that the latter is more likely. So we would be buying daily calls if prices drop towards the 178 area as results start pouring in.
According to a Chinese press report, there is a property crisis in one of the smaller cities around Beijing. After the biggest property developer in the region disappeared leaving a debt worth close to 1 billion Chinese yuan it is predictable that the situation in this city might only be the top of the iceberg.
The stock markets around the globe have declined substantially on Monday with Asian stocks taking the lead, European shares following up and the US NASDAQ index shedding more than 1%. As the stock market declines the risk appetite of investors diminishes and they flock back to the safety of their bonds.
This is the flow in pretty much every pair involving the Japanese yen. Prices have been dropping in all the EUR/JPY, USD/JPY and GBP/JPY binary options forex pairs. We will focus on some key levels to take a look at in the coming Tuesday trading session.
[I]The New Zealand dollar is poised to go higher from current levels[/I]
A very big technical level has been reached by the New Zealand right around the London close today. We have seen the weekly support trendline tested and the currency has hit a new 12 month low against the US dollar. We think that this is a great buying opportunity for daily calls and weekly calls on this pair.
While current prices around 0.8065 are already about 15 pips above the level hit earlier in the day, we think that the level is perfect for buying daily and weekly calls. If however we see an hourly close below 0.8050 we would only buy weekly calls.
This opportunity is valid for three expiry periods - tonight’s daily expiry, tomorrow’s daily expiry and the end of the week expiry with all our opinions leading to call buying at 0.8065-70. The whole spectrum of the move can be unfolded in the next weeks and we could see binary options on the NZD/USD forex pair rally all the way to 0.83.
[I]The Euro is preparing for another leg higher after recent losses[/I]
Despite lower than expected data from Germany, reflecting falling confidence in the future course of the economy, we think that a large portion of the bad news for the Euro have already been reflected in the current market price in the EUR/USD binary options forex pair.
We are looking at some serious moves in the coming days as we await key data on US New Home Sales later today. While the consensus forecast is for that data to show a rise of 433,000 units on an annualized basis, our view does not coincide with these high expectations.
We think that the data later today could be the turning point for the US dollar and are looking for opportunities to buy daily calls on the EUR/USD binary options forex pair. The first level which we have identified on our charts is around 1.2840.
With current prices hovering around 1.2850, this would be the first level to pay close attention to. While it is a minor support with the much larger lying in the 1.2815-20 area we would be keen to buy daily calls after it is tested.
[I]Euro bulls hopes dashed to pieced with another move lower[/I]
The EUR/USD pair has surprised us in its latest move. The support level around 1.2815 has given way and the single European currency tanked to mark a new multi-month low just below 1.2770 as of writing. That said we are seeing some consolidation in the coming hours which could permit us to hop on the trend and catch another leg lower.
As EUR/USD traders have listened to ECBs president Mario Draghi overnight, they felt like they missed some of his rhetoric which could drive the Euro even lower and sold the currency once against against the US dollar. He said that the ECB expects only “modest growth” in the second part of the year.
He went on to explain that the European Central Bank (ECB) has more tools at its disposal to stimulate the economy and inflation should it find necessary to act. Those are the words that sent the Euro tumbling another round and we are now at 1.2766.
Our analytics yesterday have highlighted this danger, but we were caught wrong footed by expecting some sort of a correction. Long term support in this pair lies around 1.2750, which is the monthly chart we’re walking about, so this level could be strong.
[I]Looking for direction of the next big move of the Australian dollar[/I]
The Australian dollar has somewhat stabilized this week after closing in on January’s lows around 0.8660. The next move will largely depend on data out of the US, but for now it seems that there is an inside potential. What will make us take a position here is a break above the downward trend line which we have highlighted on our chart.
We would be buying daily calls for tonight and tomorrow if we see this pair close on an hourly basis above the trendily which we see coming down to the 0.8755-60 area. Any close above 0.8760 will warrant a move to the upside which will result in an upside move towards 0.8800.
The fundamental reason for this trade is the weak economic data we have seen from the US lately with the only bright light being the number of new homes sold last week. Today we got indications that consumer sentiment is the next shoe to drop as the number came in way weaker than expected.
[I]The euro is on its way lower today, but we think this will reverse soon[/I]
Just as we are awaiting for the latest batch of data to paint a more detailed picture about the labor market in the United States, we are taking a look at the EUR/USD pair to assess what opportunities we can get from the number released and what is more likely to happen until the end of the trading day.
Currently we are seeing the EUR/USD pair trading around 1.2617, which is towards the lower side of the range from yesterday. The levels around 1.2610 have been tested numerously after the release of the latest batch of European Central Bank’s communication, however as of right now we don’t think the EUR can go much lower.
We will focus our efforts on two directions providing different opportunities to different types of traders in our daily forecast. First we are going to have a look at the more risky scenario - taking a trade before the U.S. non-farm payroll numbers are released.
[I]The Euro is trying to make a comeback, but will it succeed[/I]
The Euro currency is attempting to make a comeback and test the highs of its recent weeks range against the US dollar, however its success will depend on a variety of factors like the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s minutes later tonight and the sentiment of the market towards future interest rate rises.
The Euro currency has been threading water for the past 24 hours when compared recent volatility in the forex markets. This is possible to persist until the end of the day, however with the event risk of the Federal Reserve’s minutes from the monetary policy committee’s last meeting, we could see some moves.
This however does not concern our analysis today, as we will attempt to gauge the direction of the market in trading tomorrow. With an expiry rate at 20:00 GMT, we would be targeting to buy daily calls should the price drop towards 1.2650 in the coming hours.
[I]The US dollar continues to hold strong, buying calls against the Japanese yen[/I]
As we are drawing to the close of the week, there are still some nice opportunities in the binary options market. We are looking at the USD/JPY binary options forex pair and are determining that it is very likely at this point in time that the US dollar will continue its rally and cement its position higher at the end of the week.
The main reason for that is that a key trend line to the downside has already been tested three times and the US currency is holding strong, not giving up ground. We would be buying daily calls for tonight’s expiry at 20:00 GMT, around 107.80 if we reach that level in the coming hours.
On the downside, the move lower can only unfold if we see a drop in prices towards 107.60 and a subsequent close lower on an hourly basis. Since there is little information from the economic calendar going forward we are expecting quite trading to prevail and this event to be unlikely to happen.
[I]The British pound is gearing towards a break to the upside soon[/I]
As we have seen the best data on unemployment from the UK in quite a while we are exploring the opportunities for trading the British pound after the recent decline which drove it to almost one year lows. Binary options on the GBP/USD forex pair are currently trading around 1.5950, which is in the middle of the daily range.
The UK currency fell to an eleven month low towards the end of the Asian trading session on Wednesday as pressure from US dollar bulls was felt heavily across the board. However things have changed dramatically after the US released its latest retail sales figures at 12:30 GMT.
The report came out worse than expected and signaled declining consumer spending in the U.S., however this can be largely attributed to the dropping price of gasoline which has had an effect. The British pound took advantage of the negative data in the U.S., underscoring the positive unemployment report from the UK.
[I]The Aussie is preparing to take off in the coming hours[/I]
As the market is gearing for the final hours of the week, we are looking at prices for binary options on the AUD/USD forex pair. There has been little scope for the Australian currency to rally big this week. All attempts to the upside have been capped by aggressive sellers and short term profit-taking. On Friday however as we know, everything is possible, including a sharp rally.
The Aussie has suffered from lowering inflation forecasts, to increasing unemployment rate and of course the all vigilant Reserve Bank of Australia which keeps saying that the Australian dollar is overvalued. Well, the good news is that all these negative factors have already been priced into the market.
Meanwhile, looking at the charts we are observing a channel which if broken could bring the long awaited relief for those who believe that the AUD/USD should trade higher. We are for now amongst those, and would be looking for an opportunity to buy daily calls in case prices move higher towards 0.8770 again.
[I]The Euro is preparing for its next move, upside capped for no[/I]w
The Euro currency has attempted break to the upside as the key level around 1.2840-45 has been solidified further. The downside is likely to be the play this week, but it will depend very much on incoming U.S. data as the week progresses. For now the Euro is likely to trade around the 1.2800 figure, given the absence of major economic events.
We are closely looking at the chart and will for now stay put to see a break to the upside or the downside. On the way higher there is a very slim chance to break 1.2840-45 which should open the door higher for a test of last week’s highs around 1.2880-85.
However as we said, there is a small possibility for this happening before a break of the key level. Focusing on it, we would be buying daily calls for today’s expiry if the rate closes above 1.2845 on a sustained hourly basis. On the other hand, if we don’t see a big move lower, lets say below 1.2790, we could find ourselves in a position to buy.
[I]The pound seems to be gearing towards an attempt higher[/I]
The British pound is at the cross roads as it has been consolidating its losses over the past 24 hours. Even materially lower retail sales numbers from the UK today haven’t managed to cause a major drop lower which could be a sign that an imminent move higher is in the cards.
The GBP/USD binary options forex pair started trading on Thursday around levels close to 1.6040. The has been little evidence of a directional move as the flows were subdued in the beginning of the session as the all important UK retail sales number was heading towards the wires.
And it did come out at 08:30 GMT, revealing a larger than expected decline by 0.3% sending the British pound sharply lower to test Wednesday’s lows around 1.6010. As the pair spiked lower towards 1.6000, some shy bids emerged to drive the British currency higher towards 1.6050 as the trading kicked off in New York.
As US stocks rallied materially there was ample dollar demand particularly against the Japanese yen and the Australian and New Zealand dollars. There was not much merit behind the pair to make dramatic moves before the last trading day of the week tomorrow, as news were subdued and the main activity focusing on the Dow.
[I]The Euro is about to test a key upside trend li[/I]ne
WE would be wrong not to pay attention to the recent rise of the Euro in the aftermath of some hectic Monday trading where it lost a substantial amount of value only to recover later in the day and deliver some solid performance in the first hours of Tuesday trading in Asia.
While for now we see buying calls as the preferred strategy, we need some conditions to be fulfilled in order to maintain our commitment to the pair going up by the end of the day. Looking at the chart that would have to be an hourly close above 1.2550 to establish some sort of certainty.
On the other hand we are seeing some serious risks related to the single currency going lower in light of the Euro Area GDP forecast reports by the European Commission. Let’s look at those as an opportunity for now, since we are firm believers that there will be enough demand below the round figure and around 1.2490 to drive prices up.
