Forex, Commodities, Crypto Market Analysis by Solid ECN

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362

eBay - technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the price is falling within the narrow downwards channel of 40–46, approaching its lower border. The key support of the trading instrument is the annual level of 41; after its breakdown, the current trend will intensify.

On the four-hour chart, the quotes are in the middle of a downwards channel, attempting to consolidate below the low of the last week at 41, after which the lower limit of the range of 35 will become the target level. The movement in the direction of which is confirmed by the signals of technical indicators: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are far away from the signal line, and the histogram of the AO oscillator forms downward bars in the sell zone.

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363

EURUSD - market uncertainty remains

The European currency started the new week with a local decline, as investors still cannot fully appreciate the impact of Friday’s data on consumer prices on the long-term exchange rate. According to the June report, the indicator added 0.8%, thereby ensuring the growth of the annual inflation rate to a record 8.6%, which exceeded the analysts’ forecast, which suggested an increase to 8.4%. The core consumer price index, which excludes fuel and food prices, rose 3.7%, down from 3.8% a month earlier, suggesting that the European Central bank (ECB) cannot solve the energy market situation. Today, several regulator officials will comment on further plans to reduce inflation, and investors expect to hear about possible new measures that will allow them to determine the direction of future transactions.

The trading instrument is moving within the global downward channel, clamping within the Triangle pattern. Technical indicators maintain a global sell signal: indicator Alligator’s fast EMA oscillation range expands downwards, and the AO oscillator histogram has formed another downward bar, being in the sell zone.

Resistance levels: 1.0585, 1.0775 | Support levels: 1.0366, 1.02

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364

The NZDUSD pair managed to achieve our extended target at 0.6150, and bounced bullishly to breach 0.6210 that forms key resistance now, as it keeps its stability below it until now, to support the continuation of the expected negative scenario on the intraday and short term basis, waiting to get negative motive that assist to push the price to surpass 0.6150 and head towards 0.6100 as a next target.

Therefore, the bearish trend scenario will remain valid unless breaching 0.6210 followed by 0.6280 levels and holding above them. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6150 support and 0.6250 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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365

DAX 30: European stock markets continue to decline

According to Deutsche Bank AG, the index lost 17.0% in Q2 2022, the worst performance since 2008. The downtrend in the stock markets of Europe is largely caused by analysts’ fears about a possible recession as a result of the continued rise in inflation both in Germany and in the EU as a whole. Consumer prices in the euro area in June rose to 8.6% from 8.1% a month earlier.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading close to the level of the annual low at around 12500.0, preparing to make another attempt to overcome it. Technical indicators maintain a steady sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are actively moving away from the signal line, expanding the range of fluctuations, and the AO oscillator histogram, having moved into the sell zone, forms descending bars.

Support levels: 12600, 12000 | Resistance levels: 13255, 14260

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366

The NZDUSD pair provided positive trades yesterday but it stopped at the EMA50 that formed good resistance against the price, to decline again and test 0.6210 level, waiting for more bearish bias to head towards our next main target at 0.6100. Therefore, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend conditioned by the price stability below 0.6270. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6150 support and 0.6250 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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367

BTCUSD - “digital gold” remains under pressure

In June, the coin showed the worst dynamics in 12 years, losing 38% of its value, and in Q2 the indicators dropped by 58% to the values of 2011. In the near future, the overall pressure on the cryptocurrency sector may increase, as serious economic difficulties that have arisen for a number of large companies focused on digital assets have joined the problem of global monetary policy tightening.

During Q2, global regulators repeatedly raised interest rates, in particular, the US Fed adjusted them by 125 basis points in total, bringing them to 1.75%. Such a rapid tightening caused investors to fear a recession and led to their withdrawal from risky assets, including digital ones. A serious decline in prices caused problems for a number of companies, only increasing the panic in the cryptocurrency market. Thus, due to the liquidity crisis, the activities of the large Singapore cryptocurrency hedge fund Three Arrows Capital, known for its “bullish” bets, were discontinued. The credit company Celsius Network and the crypto exchange CoinFLEX have suspended withdrawals for customers, citing “extreme market conditions.” In an effort to reduce losses, the Huobi trading platform plans to cut about 30% of employees, and the Hong Kong OSL exchange – about 15%.

In general, the fundamental picture continues to be unfavorable and, according to a number of experts, within a few months BTC will be able to reach the “bottom” in the region of 10K dollars per coin.

Technically, the price is close to the 18750 mark (Murray [2/8]), the breakdown of which will give the prospect of further decline to the levels of 15625 (Murray [1/8]), 12500 (Murray [0/8]) and 10000. With a breakout of the level of 25000 (Murray [4/8], Fibo retracement of 23.6%), growth will be able to resume to 28125 (Murray [5/8]), 31250 (Murray [6/8]).

Technical indicators do not give a single signal: the Bollinger Bands consolidate before a serious movement, the MACD histogram decreases in the negative zone, and the Stochastic is directed upwards.

Resistance levels: 21875, 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 18750, 15625, 12500, 10000

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368

The GBPUSD pair shows sideways trades since yesterday, moving around 1.2100 now, while the EMA50 continues to press negatively on the price, which keeps the bearish trend scenario valid and active, which its targets begin by breaking 1.2077 to confirm rallying towards 1.1933 as a next station. Holding below 1.2225 is important to continue the expected decline, as breaching it will lead the price to start correctional bullish wave on the intraday basis. The expected trading range for today is between 1.2020 support and 1.2170 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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369

The USDJPY pair opened today with clear positivity to return to the bullish channel again, which leads the price to resume the main bullish trend and stop the bearish correction that dominated the recent trades, waiting to breach 136.70 to confirm extending the bullish wave towards 137.50 as a next positive target. The EMA50 supports the expected rise, which will remain valid unless breaking 135.50 and holding below it.

The expected trading range for today is between 135.60 support and 137 resistance. The expected trend for today: Bullish.

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370

The EURUSD pair resumes its negative trades to surpass 1.0250 level and settles below it, reinforcing the expectations of continuing the bearish trend for the rest of the day, reminding you that our next main target is located at 1.0100, while holding below 1.0355 represents key condition to continue the suggested decline. The expected trading range for today is between 1.0170 support and 1.0320 resistance.

The expected trend for today: Bearish.

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371

The NZDUSD resumes the decline.

The NZDUSD pair found solid support at 0.6120, to show some bullish bias now, affected by stochastic positivity, waiting to get negative motive that assist to push the price to decline again and head towards our next main target at 0.6100. In general, we will continue to suggest the bearish trend for the upcoming period unless breaching 0.6265 and holding above it. The expected trading range for today is between 0.6100 support and 0.6200 resistance

The expected trend for today: Bearish

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372

3M Co - technical analysis

The shares of 3M Co., an American diversified innovative manufacturing company, traded in a downtrend around 129. On the daily chart, the price is holding in a stable downwards channel with dynamic boundaries 108.00–138.00 and, reversed around at the resistance line, is heading towards support, having renewed the next year’s low at 126.

On the four-hour chart, it can be seen that this level coincides with the initial trend of 61.8% for the Fibonacci expansion, the breakdown of which will mean continued global sales with the target at 100.0% for the Fibonacci expansion in the support line of the channel 109. The likely decline is confirmed by the readings of technical indicators that have reversed long ago and keep a stable sell signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are significantly below the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram forms bars with a downward trend in the sell zone.

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373

USDCAD - the market is preparing for a sharp rate hike by the Bank of Canada
The Canadian currency continues to give way to the US dollar, despite the rather active attempts of the Bank of Canada to prevent the growth of inflation, which reached 7.7% in May. According to the updated forecasts of the Canadian regulator, in the near future the indicator may exceed 8.0% for the first time in 40 years, and therefore the likelihood that the interest rate will be raised immediately by 0.75% on July 13 is very high. In addition, the management of the Bank of Canada publicly acknowledged their mistakes, which led to a sharp rise in prices, promising that from July the analysis of macroeconomic data and forecasts will become more transparent. Canada’s business activity data for July is expected to be published today, and data on the state of the labor market, which, according to forecasts, has begun to slow down, will be published tomorrow.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is trading within a wide ascending channel with dynamic boundaries of 1.2500–1.3100, having reached the resistance line for the second time since the beginning of summer. The fluctuation range of the Alligator indicator EMAs is holding a buy signal, and the histogram of the AO oscillator is forming new ascending bars, actively rising in the sell zone.

Support levels: 1.2939, 1.2754 | Resistance levels: 1.3075, 1.33

374

USDJPY: market uncertainty persists

The long-term uptrend in the pair will continue, despite the slowdown in price growth in the last few weeks. The key for the “bulls” is the resistance zone 136.70-137.50, the breakout of which will give the prospect of further upward dynamics to 139.06, 140.62. If the price consolidates below the middle line of the Bollinger Bands around 135, the decline will continue to the levels of 132.8 and 131.25.

Resistance levels: 137.50, 140.62, 143.75 | Support levels: 135.00, 132.80, 131.25

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375

Gold offers a good buy price.

The yellow metal is trading around $1,742 and above the support level at $1,720. The price bounced off this level 3 times during the last trading year. Considering RSI is in the oversold zone, we expect the gold price to increase in the upcoming weeks.

Support: $1,720 - $1,710 | Resistance: $1,760 - $1,780

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376

NZDUSD Technical Analysis

The pair is trading in the descending channel for the last 3 weeks. The downtrend scenario is valid as long as the bears can keep the price within the channel line and below the 50 moving average.

Support: 0.6124 | Resistance: 0.6195 - 0.6251

Trading Idea
Sell targeting 0.6124 | SL: 0.626

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377

XAUUSD - gold stays at record lows

Gold positions came under pressure on Friday amid the publication of a stronger report on the US labor market: the Unemployment Rate remained at 3.6%, while Employment Change rose by 372 thousand, well ahead of the projected 268 thousand, which allows investors to hope for continued tightening of monetary policy by the US Federal Reserve. According to the CME FedWatch indicator, more than 92% of traders are confident in the “hawkish” rhetoric at the next meeting of the regulator, as well as in the adjustment of the value by 75 basis points at the end of this month.

Bollinger Bands in D1 chart demonstrate a stable decrease. The price range is expanding, making way to new record lows for the “bears”. MACD is going down, keeping a fairly stable sell signal (located below the signal line). Stochastic has reached its lows and is trying to reverse upwards, indicating risks of oversold instrument in the ultra-short term.

Resistance levels: 1752.87, 1775, 1784.31, 1800 | Support levels: 1730, 1720, 1700

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378

BTC USD - monetary pressure on the token may continue

The cryptocurrency sector remains under pressure due to the tightening of the US Federal Reserve’s monetary policy and the industry’s general problems associated with a significant decrease in the capitalization of market leaders. Investors reacted negatively to the June data of the US labor market, believing that they would remove the last concerns of US Federal Reserve officials and force them to increase the rate again by 75 percentage points, which will lead to additional strengthening of the dollar. In public speeches, representatives of the crypto-currency community are trying to calm each other, stating that the current “crypto winter” will play in favor of the market but this looks like an attempt to find at least something good in the current difficult situation for the sector.

The potential for a further decline in digital assets will remain.

The trading instrument is testing the middle line of Bollinger Bands 20500 but the key “bearish” is 18750, the breakdown of which allows further decline to 15625 and 12500 and 10000.00. The breakout of 21875 (the upper line of Bollinger bands) allows growth to 25000(Fibonacci correction 23.6%), 28125.

Resistance levels: 21875, 25000, 28125, 31250 | Support levels: 18750, 15625, 12500, 10000

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379

USDCHF - the US dollar holds on to yearly highs

The Swiss currency is slightly weakening, and the current trend may last until the middle of the week, as there are no macroeconomic publications that could affect its dynamics. Now the pair USDCHF is trading within an uptrend around 0.9785.

The franc is losing value after the publication of the report of the Swiss State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) on employment, according to which the unemployment rate in the country in June fell to 2.0% from 2.1% a month earlier, and compared to the same month last year, the reduction in the number of unemployed amounted to 39.310K or 29.8%. Thus, the stabilization of the indicator continues for the sixth consecutive month, acting as a driver for strengthening the national currency, weakened by the recent tightening of monetary policy by the Swiss National Bank.

On the global chart of the asset, the price is correcting within the sideways channel, heading towards its upper border. The technical indicators reversed and issued a renewed buy signal: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator crossed the signal line upwards, and the AO oscillator histogram formed the first bar above the transition level.

Resistance levels: 0.9820, 1 | Support levels: 0.9695, 0.954

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380

Verizon Communications - technical analysis

On the daily chart of the asset, the quotes are trading below the global channel 51–56 and completing the reverse test of the range support line passed. On the four-hour chart, it is clearly seen that corrective growth is developing in the form of a Triangle pattern. Inside the figure, the price has reached the support line at 50 and is preparing to reverse upward, which, in turn, will signal the end of the correction and the continuation of the global decline with the target around 45.5.

Nevertheless, the readings of technical indicators reflect the continuation of local growth: fast EMAs on the Alligator indicator are above the signal line, and the AO oscillator histogram is trading in the buying zone.

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381

USDJPY Technical Analysis

Bulls are trading the USD JPY above 137, which supports the price now. RSI and Stochastic have left the overbought zone, that lead the market to test 137 support after the break-out. The bullish trend is valid with the price fluctuation above the 50 MA and 137.74 deck.

Trade idea
Buy at 137.3, Target: Open | SL: 134.26

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