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Friday, June 12th
The euro fell during the Asian session as talks between Greece and IMF reportedly got into another deadlock situation. The IMF officials ended the Thursday meeting untimely despite the lack of progress. The Greek bailout team commented that the two sides remained far apart from the agreement on a number of important issues. Greek bailout agreement with EU and IMF is expiring at the end of this month and if the deal is not reached by then, the country is going to face default. Traded at 1.1218, EUR/USD will see support at 1.1144 and resistance at 1.1296. The German reports on wholesale price changes were positive and Spanish CPI indices came in exactly as expected. Ahead in the day, investors will be watching the European industrial production reports.
NZD/USD continued its decline after yesterday’s cut of interest rate. This morning, the New Zealand data came in almost flat with PMI at 51.5 as opposed to 51.8 last month and RBNZ Offshore Holdings at 63.00% lower 0.90% than the previous month. The pair is trading at 0.6993.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the dollar’s strength against the basket of major currencies was up 0.72% at 95.12. On Thursday, the reports showed a slightly bigger than expected increase of the U.S. retail prices, but the number of jobless claims also grew higher than it was predicted.
The yen was on the rise earlier today currently traded at 123.65. The Japanese industrial production rose 1.2% beating the expectations of 1.0%. USD/JPY is likely to find support at 122.72 and resistance at 124.88.
Later in the day, investors are viewing the producer price index from the U.S.
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Monday, June 15th
EUR/USD was down to 1.1212 this morning, opening the session with a small gap. Greece remains ready for negotiations with its international creditors; however the bail-out team blamed European lenders for insisting on pension cuts and raising value-added-tax. The pair’s support level is located at 1.1152 and resistance at 1.1354. Ahead in the day, the markets will be watching the report on euro zone’s trade balance, Italian CPI and the speech of ECB President M.Draghi.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against the basket of major currencies, was up 0.17% at 95.40. However, the dollar ended lower last week, as FED did not give any indications on interest rate hike timing. Friday’s data showed that consumer confidence improved in the U.S. over earlier improvement in the labor market, which pushed the expectations for wage gains.
NZD/USD and AUD/USD are moving down quoted 0.6980 and 0.7726 respectively.
USD/JPY was on a slight correction going up over dollar’s strengthening. The pair is trading at 123.47 with support at 122.91 and resistance at 124.23.
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Tuesday, June 16th
AUD/USD was falling this morning over dovish tones in RBA minutes. The pair is trading at 0.7738 and is moving down after Australian officials held the rates unchanged at a record low of 2% and stated that further rate cuts are possible if necessary.
USD/JPY is trading at 123.57 continuing its rise. The comments from Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda indicated that the nominal yen rate is not protected against further weakening.
NZD/USD keeps falling for the fifth consecutive week. Today, the pair tested the 0.6996 level, but was rejected. This indicates the strong resistance at 0.7000. Support level is located at 0.6947.
The U.S. dollar index was up 0.15% at 95.21. Yesterday’s downbeat data from U.S. erased the dollar’s gains last night, but the expectations of the rate hike were still strong.
EUR/USD was going up this morning reaching the level of 1.1317. The support level is located at 1.1236 and resistance at 1.1399.
Later in the day, the investors are watching the British CPI, German ZEW Economic Sentiment and U.S. building permits.
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Wednesday, June 17th
USD/JPY was going up in Asia this morning after mixed data from Japan. Yen weakened despite narrower trade balance deficit, which was 10B less than expected at -216B. The pair is located at 123.57 after today’s highest of 123.60. The pair can find support at 122.45 and resistance at 123.89.
NZD/USD spiked up to 0.6993 after strong current account data, but eventually continued its fall to the current level of 0.6963. The expectations of Fed indicating the rate hike timing are likely to prevail in today’s trade, which will greatly affect the pair’s movement depending on the changes in demand for the U.S. dollar.
AUD/USD fell considerably this morning amid iron ore falling prices. Currently traded at 0.77168, the aussie was down almost $0.005 in the last 10 hours. The support can be found at 0.7707 (Today’s lowest) and resistance at 0.7767.
GBP/USD continues to consolidate the recent breakout through 1.5600. Higher volatility is expected on the release of British data due later in the day. The strong support level is located at 1.5595 and resistance at 1.5709.
EUR/USD is traded in the narrow corridor between 1.1277 and 1.12415. The increase in the number of U.S. building permits sent the single currency lower yesterday. Today, the market is viewing the euro zone’s CPI, FOMC Economic Projections, Fed interest rate decision and the speech of J. Yellen.
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Thursday, June 18th
EUR/USD surged yesterday evening amid dovish Fed comments on rate hike timing. Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen said that U.S. Central Bank will take data-driven approach when deciding on when to raise the rate. It was said that the Fed would like to see improvements in the U.S. economy and labor market before it begins policy normalization. Meanwhile, Athens remains in focus. On Wednesday, the Greece Central Bank warned that the country might face an “uncontrollable crisis” if the agreement with creditors is not reached. EUR/USD closed above 1.13 for the first time in the last six sessions. Currently, the pair is traded at 1.13855.
USD/JPY fell despite data showing lower Japanese wage levels in April. The strengthening of the yen was stimulated by the view that the Fed will be slow to raise rates. The pair is currently at 123.01 with resistance level at 124.57 and support at 122.70.
NZD/USD fell sharply after the release of weaker GDP growth in the first quarter. Economists expected a 0.6% growth rate, but the report came in at 0.2%. Falling to 0.6873, it was the pair’s lowest since July 6, 2010.
USD/CHF was down to 0.9212 after yesterday’s Fed announcement. The Swiss Franc has been a major beneficiary of the Greek crisis, leading to a drop in EUR/CHF and USD/CHF pairs.
The U.S. dollar index was down 0.12% at 94.37.
Later in the day, the markets are viewing the British retail sales report, the U.S. core CPI and Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing index.
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Friday, June 19th
Swiss franc continued its strengthening against the U.S. dollar reaching its one-month highs on Thursday after SNB left its deposit rate at record low at -0.75%. Swiss National Bank said that negative rate should help to weaken the currency over time. The pair is traded at 0.9235 with support level at 0.9113 and resistance at 0.9255.
GBP/USD touched its seven-month highs against weaker dollar on Thursday. Data showed that U.K. retail sales grew in May while Federal Reserve indicated that it might not raise the interest rates in September, but will rather wait for more robust economic growth. Yesterday’s mixed data from U.S. sent the pond even higher. The cable is currently traded at 1.5862 down $0.0072 from yesterday’s peak.
NZD/USD and AUD/USD were down in Asia despite weaker dollar. Kiwi is likely to remain under pressure without any fresh reports coming out from New Zealand today.
Yen was slightly weaker today traded at 123.12 after Bank of Japan kept the interest rate unchanged as expected at 0.10%. The pair’s resistance level is located at 123.60 and support at 121.54.
EUR/USD rose mildly on Thursday over dollar’s weakening, but erased gains this morning currently traded at 1.1309. Yesterday, the meeting of euro zone finance ministers in Luxembourg ended without a deal between Greece and its creditors. The European Central Bank Executive Board member Benoit Coeure said that he is unsure if banks in Greece will remain open on Monday if a deal is not reached. The likelihood of Greek default is very high.
The U.S. dollar index plunged to a monthly-low of 93.71 before rising to the current reading of 94.57.
Ahead in the day, investors are viewing Canadian Core CPI and series of reports from the United States.
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Monday, June 22nd
EUR/USD was gaining in Asia this morning as investors are waiting to what appears to be the crucial point in Greek negotiations. European leaders are meeting in Brussels to discuss the bailout agreement, which is due to expire on June 30. The pair is trading at 1.1396 with support level at 1.1267 and resistance at 1.1434.
The U.S. dollar index, which measures the dollar’s strength against the basket of major currencies, ended the week down 0.4% at 94.27.
NZD/USD was showing correction signs this morning rising to 0.6920 after previous week’s lows of 0.6877. Kiwi tries to fight back the lost ground; however data from New Zealand needs to provide more evidence on the nation’s stable economy growth, since the reports were quite mixed lately.
AUD/USD is headed up currently trading at 0.7787. The aussie was supported by weaker dollar, as sceptic expectations of a rate hike prevailed. The support level is located at 0.7676 and resistance at 0.7794.
Ahead in the day, economists are viewing the U.S. Existing Home Sales.
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Tuesday, June 23rd
EUR/USD was down on Monday despite the clearest indication of Greece going forward in negotiations with its creditors. In Brussels, Greek officials presented a comprehensive proposal, which reportedly included plans to introduce new corporate tax, new wealth tax, raising the nation’s retirement age to 67 and imposing some new increases to VAT. The U.S. Existing Home Sales data also contributed to euro’s decline as report showed better than expected reading of 5.35M as opposed to 5.26M predicted. The German Manufacturing PMI data came out exceeding expectations, which did not notably influence the single currency’s rate. The pair is traded at 1.1248 with support level located near 1.1220 and closest resistance at 1.1375. Ahead in the day, markets are viewing U.S. Core Durable Goods Orders and New Home Sales in the United States.
NZD/USD slumped to its fresh 5year lows ignoring better than expected Chinese Manufacturing PMI data. The weak Kiwi remains under pressure after series of downbeat economic data from New Zealand indicating a possibility of further interest rate cuts. The pair is traded at 0.6858 rising from today’s lows of 0.6835.
AUD/USD was down this morning leaving the Chinese Manufacturing PMI data unconsidered. Worse than expected reading of House Price Index in Australia sent the aussie lower to 0.7694. Subsequently the pair erased the losses reaching the 0.7743 level and fell again to 0.7722.
GBP/USD is heading down for the second consecutive falling below 1.5800 level. In absence of any significant news from the U.K. the market will shift the attention towards the U.S. calendar. The pair is traded at 1.5802 with immediate support at 1.5761 and resistance at 1.5668.
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Wednesday, June 24th
The U.S. dollar index was up 1.17% at 95.63 on Tuesday, the highest level since June 12.
EUR/USD fell 1.61% to two-week lows of 1.1135 in spite the data showing that private sector activity in the euro area expanded at the fastest pace in four years this month, meaning that the economy is steadily recovering. The pair is traded at 1.1204 with support level located at 1.1017 and resistance at 1.1315.
USD/JPY was lower in Asia as Japanese Corporate Services Price Index came out with a positive reading. The pair is traded at 123.893.
NZD/USD and AUD/USD were gradually moving up this morning currently traded at 0.6861 and 0.7719, respectively. Bearish trends still prevail for both pairs, especially after yesterday’s comments from Fed governor Jerome Powell on the timing of rate hike, which contributed to the strengthening of the greenback.
GBP/USD is erasing yesterday’s losses climbing up to 1.5786 this morning. The pair is likely to find support at 1.5578 and resistance at 1.5861.
Ahead in the day, investors are viewing the German Ifo Business Climate Index and GDP report from the United States.
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Thursday, June 25th
EUR/USD was back to 1.12 yesterday amid Greek negotiations and mixed data from the U.S. The pair was trading in the corridor between 1.1169 and 1.1235. Currently quoted at 1.1187 the support is likely to be found near 1.1124 and resistance close to 1.1262.
The U.S. dollar index was down 0.21% on Wednesday to 95.44 indicating a correction move of the greenback against the basket of six major currencies after the index rose 1.2% on Tuesday, which was the best session for the dollar since the beginning of this year.
The Canadian dollar is declining for the fifth consecutive day currently quoted at 1.2397 against its U.S. counterpart. The U.S. dollar is steadily erasing yesterday’s losses.
GBP/USD is traded below 1.57. Without any important news coming out from the U.K. the market will be mostly paying attention to the outcome of Greek negotiations.
Ahead in the day, there are series of news from the United States.
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Friday, June 26th
USD/JPY was down 0.18% traded at 123.40 amid mostly positive Japanese data. The household spending rose 2.4% in May while Japanese National CPI was up 0.5%. The yen continues strengthening with resistance level located at 123.80 and support at 122.53.
AUD/USD declined 0.37% currently traded at 0.7700. The pair will find strong support at 0.7678 and resistance at 0.7774.
NZD/USD was moving down in Asia despite data showing that New Zealand’s Trade Balance deficit shrank while economists expected its increase. The current market price of NZD is $0.6880.
The U.S. dollar index was up 0.10% to 95.40.
EUR/USD was again below 1.12 today, but currently quoted at 1.1215. The market is mostly waiting for the outcome of Greek negotiations.
Ahead in the day, investors are watching the speech of Bank of England Governor M. Carney.
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Monday, June 29th
EUR/USD dropped to 1.0954 after dramatic collapse of negotiations between Greece and its creditors over the weekend. Greek banks and stock exchange are expected to be closed for the entire week as the government imposed capital controls within the country. The possibility that Greece will run out of cash even before the July 5 referendum called by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras is very high. The pair is currently traded at 1.1084. Today’s move of the single currency majorly affected the market, which opened with a gap in Asia leading to significantly higher volatility.
The U.S. dollar index which measures the strength of the greenback against six major currencies was up 0.83% to 96.40. The U.S. data on Friday showed that consumer sentiment rose this month bolstering the expectations for higher interest rates.
USD/JPY slumped to 122.10 over higher retail sales in Japan and the plunge of the euro. The pair is currently moving back towards 123.00 reading as dollar is gaining momentum.
AUD held steady at three-week lows against the greenback. The pair hit 0.7586 during the Asian trade, which was its lowest since June 8. Currently located at 0.7638, the pair can find support at 0.7550 and resistance at 0.7701.
NZD/USD touched the level of 0.6785 this morning, which was pair’s lowest since June 2010. The Kiwi is back to above 0.68, but the bearish trend is likely to continue further.
Ahead in the day, investors are viewing the pending home sales in the U.S. while the situation in Greece remains the main point of concern.
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Tuesday, June 30th
EUR/USD reversed plunging 0.4% during the Asian session. After the collapse of Greek negotiations the attention of the market is now turned to the July 5 referendum. Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras reported he might resign if Greek people vote in favor of the creditors’ proposal. The pair is traded at 1.1166.
AUD/USD was rising this morning despite weaker data. HIA New Home Sales fell 2.3% in May, which was a sharp fall from 0.6% gain in the previous month. The aussie is quoted at 0.7683 against the greenback with support and resistance levels located at 0.7595 and 0.7779, respectively.
USD/JPY continued the bearish trend after rising above 123.00 level yesterday afternoon. The Japanese data on Housing Starts came out in line with expectations, while construction orders declined 7.4% after last month’s -12.1%. The pair is located at 122.21.
GBP/USD fell below 1.57 amid strengthening of the dollar this morning, but cable erased losses rising back to 1.5710. The markets are viewing the British GDP later in the day. The pair is likely to find support near 1.5622 and strong resistance at 1.5826.
NZD/USD was moving down in Asia, which shows the continuous weakening of the Kiwi. The pair dipped to 0.6794 subsequently consolidating at 0.6808. In New Zealand, building consents came in flat and ANZ Business Confidence reading was -2.3%.
Ahead in the day, investors are viewing euro zone’s CPI, Canadian GDP and Conference Board Consumer Confidence report from the U.S.
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Wednesday, July 1st
Greece has officially missed its 1.6 billion payment to the IMF on Tuesday. This is the largest missed payment ever owed to the IMF and Greece is no longer in a bailout program for the first time since 2010. Greek banks and the Athens stock exchange remain closed through this week ahead of the July 5 referendum. Beyond that, Greece has a July 20 payment of 3.5 billion euros due to the ECB. EUR/USD was as low as 1.1107 today, but no major volatility is observed in today’s trade so far.
AUD/USD continued recovery from its Monday lows despite China’s PMI missing the expectations. The pair is currently traded at 0.7705 after reaching its highest of 0.7738 today. In Australia, the AIG Manufacturing index fell 8.1 points to 44.2, which is its two-year low. Also, the number of building approvals in Australia rose 2.4%, above expectations of 1.0% growth. The RBA Commodity Price index was down 17.9% after the 20.8% plunge last month. The support will be found at 0.7684 and resistance at 0.7770.
USD/JPY was going up despite all major economic data from Japan showing stronger than expected readings. The pair is trading close to 122.71.
The U.S. dollar index was down 0.01% at 95.74.
NZD/USD rose 0.61% from its five-year lows reaching the 0.6810 reading and subsequently consolidating at 0.6777. It is official holiday in New Zealand today, so without any news coming out from New Zealand the pair’s moves will solely depend on the strength of the U.S. dollar.
USD/CAD is on the bullish trend after yesterday’s report of a slightly weaker than expected Canadian GDP. The pair is currently quoted at 1.2502.
Meanwhile, GBP/USD was not much affected by yesterday’s stronger British economy growth report. The important news for the pair was much weaker PMI, which sent the cable down to 1.5651.
Ahead in the day, investors are viewing ADP Nonfarm Employment Change and the ISM Manufacturing PMI in the U.S.
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Thursday, July 2nd
NZD/USD fell amid easing expectations by the central bank and possible rate lowering in New Zealand. The pair is trading at 0.6677 with resistance level at 0.6790.
AUD/USD is declining for the second consecutive day after data showed trade balance deficit was considerably wider than expected in Australia. The aussie is quoted at 0.7613 against its American equivalent. The support is likely to be found near 0.7591 level.
The U.S. dollar index was flat at 96.47 despite yesterday’s strong economic data: ISM Manufacturing PMI exceeded expectations by 0.4 points reaching 53.5 and ADP Non-farm Employment Change was 237K with 218K expected.
GBP/USD remained mostly unchanged after yesterday’s fall amid weaker Manufacturing PMI . The cable is still struggling near 1.5584and investors are viewing the British Construction PMI today. It is likely that pound will find support near 1.5526 if the data is worse than expected and resistance at 1.5677 in case of a stronger PMI reading.
USD/JPY is back above 123.00 currently quoted at 123.51.
The euro traded between small gains and losses in Asia. The single currency is worth $1.1054 after today’s lowest of 1.1032.
Ahead in the day, all attention is on Non-Farm Payrolls and Unemployment rate in the U.S.
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Friday, July 3rd
NZD/USD is quoted at 0.6696 after Non-farm Payrolls data sent the pair little lower. The number of people employed in the U.S. during the previous month (excluding the farming industry) fell to 223K. The unemployment rate in the U.S. is 5.3% - lower than expected. The data is mixed and doesn’t clearly indicate if American economy is gaining momentum for the awaited rate hikes in autumn.
AUD/USD reacted negatively on poor May’s retail sales data. The aussie is quoted at 0.7560 and the bearish trend is likely to continue next week.
GBP/USD wasn’t much affected by the British services PMI positive report. The cable is trading at 1.5613 after this week’s lows of 1.5561.
EUR/USD trade kept steady in Asia before the Greek referendum on Sunday.
The yen strengthened a little on Thursday. This morning USD/JPY is trading at 123.00 level. The support can be found at 122.20 and resistance at 123.75.
Ahead in the day, lower liquidity for precious metals is expected due to celebration of U.S. Independence Day. The regular trading conditions will resume on Monday, but be prepared for higher volatility amid Greek referendum.
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EUR/USD fell sharply this morning hitting the 1.0970 level after Greeks voted “No” to the bailout package proposed by the creditors. This accounts to 1.4% drop compared to the Friday’s closing price. Currently, the pair is located at 1.1065 with support and resistance levels at 1.0945 and 1.1125, respectively.
NZD/USD was broadly lower today opening at 0.6653 in Asia. Negative U.S. Non-farm Payrolls data of last week didn’t give the kiwi any medium-term support and the bearish trend is likely to continue this week without any significant news coming out from New Zealand.
AUD/USD also dipped to 0.7462, which was its six-year lows. It is unclear if the aussie is going to weaken any further this week, especially ahead of tomorrow’s Interest Rate decision in Australia. It was said that RBA might stick to low interest rates in favour of giving the economy time for recovery. The support for Australian dollar is located at 0.7435 and resistance at 0.7585.
GBP/USD is moving sideways today after opening at 1.5557 in Asia. The British Manufacturing Production data coming out tomorrow is going to add some volatility to the trade but it is unlikely to reverse this medium-term bearish trend.
Swiss CPI data came out higher than expected. The current price is 0.9426. Investors are viewing the 0.9535 level as passing it would give a sign of a more long-term bullish trend. The SNB’s negative interest rates are aimed at keeping the CHF cheaper, but market has been watching a more or less consolidated movement of USD/CHF since the beginning of May.
USD/JPY is back below 123.00 level currently located at 122.68.
USD/CAD has seen a considerable rise over the last three weeks hitting the highs of 1.2633. The trade will be very volatile in the afternoon when ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI and Canadian Ivey PMI come out at the same time. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.2575.
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can we have some specific info about how to trade and when to trade because im getting some information that the EURO is going to drop bu the end of the year very hard is this true ??? i would appreciate some expert opinion
harissa, i do understand your concern, but following my strategies and studies, the euro shouldnt drop as much as you predict. If it does, we should be able to earn some good cash from it:))
Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
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Tuesday, July 7th
EUR/USD opened today’s trade at 1.1055 in Asia as Greece received hard news from IMF about Fund’s inability to provide the country with any additional funding. Since the opening of the market, the single currency slid down to 1.1025 and further falls are expected ahead in the day.
AUD/USD dropped to 0.7477 amid Reserve Bank of Australia keeping the interest rate unchanged at 2.00%. The markets will be monitoring the Australian data for confirmation of economic rebound. Otherwise, the interest rates are more than likely to go down in course of further easing, pulling AUD lower. The support and resistance levels are at 0.7443 and 0.7571, respectively.
NZD/USD followed the Australian counterpart dipping down on the discouraging NZIER Business Confidence survey for Q2. The pair is traded at 0.6654 and remains in red as the bearish trend continues.
The U.S. dollar index was stronger – up 0.11% to 96.53.
GBP/USD is erasing yesterday’s gains in anticipation of British Manufacturing production due later in the day. The cable is quoted at 1.5568 but the main developments of the pair’s movement will be determined by the manufacturing data. Support is likely to be found at 1.5492.
Ahead in the day, the Canadian and U.S. Trade balance data is due, so higher volatility is expected for USD/CAD.
