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Wednesday, May 30th

The EUR/USD pair recovered some pips in Asia after its retreat to 10-month lows, backed by increasing political jitters in Italy. According to the latest news, snap elections in Italy could take place at some point during July. Fresh elections in Italy may provide a stronger mandate to anti-EU parties. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses, as the US dollar stalled its bullish run, offering another respite to the major currencies this Wednesday. On the data front, during European trades investors will focus their attention on the German unemployment data, while the US will offer markets preliminary GDP estimates and ADP employment report, which will form pair’s near-term trajectory this Wednesday.

The GBP/USD pair recovered some positions after another drop to its half-year lows, marked in the vicinity of 1.3200 on Tuesday. It seems that slowdown in the UK economy and as a consequence lowered expectations of a BoE rate hike this year remains the key driver for the pair, significantly weighting the pound across the market. However, the pair managed to recover minor part of its recent losses this Wednesday on the back of subdued dynamics of the greenback. Looking ahead, the UK data calendar won’t offer us anything interesting, so investors will focus their attention on the US ADP jobs data and preliminary GDP figures, which will be released during the NA session.

The USD/CAD pair extends its upside trend for the seventh consecutive session, having refreshed its 2-month lows in the region of 1.3050 on Tuesday. Recent bullish move of the pair is mainly explained by ongoing retreat of oil prices from its multi-year highs, which are weighting the commodity linked Loonie. On the other hand, subdued dynamics of the US dollar limits further gains of the pair, allowing it to slow down its bullish run. Moreover, slight cautiousness ahead of BoC meeting, which will take place during NY trades, also forces investors to refrain from opening important bets. It is expected that the CB of Canada will keep its interest rate unchanged, however, any talks regarding possible monetary policy tightening in future may positively affect the Canadian dollar. Besides important meeting of the Canadian regulator, investors will also pay attention to the US ADP jobs data and preliminary GDP figures, which will offer some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains positive in the middle of the week, having bounced off its intraday lows, located on the level of 0.6883. In Asia, the pair received notable bullish impetus following RBNZ Financial Stability Report, where RBNZ’s Governor A. Orr noted that the financial system’s outlook remains reliable. Moreover, lackluster dynamics of the US dollar is another positive driving factor for the pair, which allows the pair to recover some ground this Wednesday. However, ongoing risk aversion due to political drama in Italy limits further correction of the pair. In the day ahead, investors’ attention will remain glued to the US data, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction.

Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 10.55 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
Prelim. US GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
BoC Interest Rate Decision – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1432 R. 1.1694
USDJPY S. 107.42 R. 110.14
GBPUSD S. 1.3138 R. 1.3388
USDCHF S. 0.9785 R. 1.0047
AUDUSD S. 0.7464 R. 0.7574
NZDUSD S. 0.6854 R. 0.6974
USDCAD S. 1.2934 R. 1.3092

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Thursday, May 31st

The EUR/USD pair remains positive for the second consecutive session, having bounced off its half-year lows on Wednesday, located in the vicinity of 1.1500. Today the pair extends its upside correction and in early Europe broke through the level of 1.1700 that can be mainly explained by downside correction of the US dollar, which was additionally underpinned by yesterday’s weak ADP jobs data. Moreover, the lack of news regarding political developments in Italy also eased pressure on the common currency this Thursday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will bring us important CPI figures, while the US will offer us the home pending sales report, which will help the pair to form its near-term trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair has finally found support and returned above the level of 1.3300. It seems that the pound has found so much-awaited support after declining from its multi-year highs, marked on the level of 1.4376 in mid-April. Recall, the recent weakness of the pound was mainly attributed to series of weaker-then-expected data, which forced the BoE to abandon a rate hike in May. However, yesterday the pair found support on the level of 1.3205 and today continues to trade with a mild bullish bias. The main reason for the pair’s reversal can be called the decline in the US dollar across the market, which was underpinned by yesterday’s weak data from the US labor market. Today both economic calendars will offer investors mainly second tier data reports, so the pair will continue to follow the US dollar dynamics during this trading session.

The USD/CAD pair keeps its positions within striking distance of weekly lows, marked on the level of 1.2840 following hawkish outcome of the BoC meeting. Yesterday the pair fell by 200 pips, reacting on the statement of the Canadian regulator, where the Bank showed more hawkish stance, pointing on the acceleration of economic growth in the first quarter of the year. The Bank noted that inflation in Canada nearly approached the target level of 2% and would likely be a bit higher in the near term. In general, we can say that the BoC is ready to ease accommodation of its monetary policy and investors are now awaiting for a hawkish surprise from the Bank in July. Moreover, recovery of oil prices and ongoing retreat of the US dollar also contributes to the downside trend of the pair this Thursday. In the day ahead, the economic calendar will offer investors Canada’s GDP figures and data from the US housing market, while investors will continue to digest recent economic events.

The AUD/USD pair remains positive this Thursday, however, having stalled its bullish trend. Yesterday the pair performed sharp upside move, having refreshed its 3-day tops on the level of 0.7584, in wake of ongoing correction of the greenback against its major rivals. However, the pair received a negative impetus during Asia due to weak data of the Australian economy and lost a small part of its gains. Nevertheless, the pair managed to regain its positive tone and returned to the region of its recent tops on the back of slightly improved risk appetite, which was underpinned by stronger-than-expected Chinese manufacturing and services PMIs. Looking ahead, today the US calendar will offer investors only data from the housing market and bloc of second tier reports, which won’t have any impact on the pair, so broad market sentiment and price dynamics of the US dollar will remain the main drivers for the pair this Thursday.

Major events of the day:
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Pending Home Sales – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)

**Support and resistance levels for the major currency
EURUSD S. 1.1463 R. 1.1777
USDJPY S. 108.05 R. 109.51
GBPUSD S. 1.3201 R. 1.3347
USDCHF S. 0.9843 R. 0.9961
AUDUSD S. 0.7438 R. 0.7654
NZDUSD S. 0.6841 R. 0.7073
USDCAD S. 1.2707 R. 1.3129

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Friday, June 1st

The EUR/USD pair remains pretty much directionless so far this session, keeping its positions just below the level of 1.1700. It seems that the common currency ignores bullish dynamics of the US dollar, thereby protecting the pair from any significant losses. Moreover, lack of further news from Italy has cooled off markets’ concerns over the formation of a coalition between populist parties, which in turn positively affects the common currency this Friday. On the other hand, re-ignited fears of a global trade war, following US President’s announcement that the US would impose tariffs on steel and aluminum, is limiting any further gains of the pair. As for the data, today we will have busy trading session ahead, featuring manufacturing data from the US and Germany, and the US non-farm payrolls, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction on Friday.

The GBP/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and today again fell below the level of 1.3300. The pair lost its positive mood after two days of recovery on the back of renewed demand for the greenback, which remains the key driving factor across the market on Friday. In addition, yesterday US President Donald Trump triggered a spike in demand for safety, having announced that the US would impose their steel and aluminum tariffs on three of the US’ biggest trading partners - Canada, Mexico, and the EU. By this announcement, Mr. Trump re-ignited concerns over a global trade war, thereby weighing the pound, as a higher-yielding asset. In the day ahead, the pair will experience pretty volatile session, as the economic calendar will bring us plenty of important data, such as UK and US manufacturing reports, and US non-farm payrolls, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory during the last trading session of this week.

The USD/JPY pair regained its positive tone and corrected above the level of 109.00. Today the comeback of the US dollar remains the main driving factor across the market, offering notable support to the pair. Meanwhile, the BoJ today announced reduction in JGB purchases that could be considered by markets as QE program tapering. However, market reaction to this news was limited, as experience shows that these actions will unlikely lead to easing of massive monetary policy stimulation. Looking ahead, further gains of the pair look limited, as now market’s attention remains glued to the major US jobs report. But for now slight cautiousness will continue to dominate the market, offering slight support to the safe-haven yen.

The AUD/USD pair remains the weakest asset of the Asian trending session, extending its yesterday’s retreat from 7-day highs, marked on the level of 0.7593 a day before. Renewed weakness of the pair can be explained by ongoing buying interest around the greenback. In addition, weaker-then-expected China’s manufacturing PMI and increased cautiousness ahead of important US employment data also exert pressure on the pair at the end of this week. Besides the NFP report, investors will also pay attention to the US manufacturing data, which will bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US Nonfarm Payrolls – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Unemployment Rate – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1602 R. 1.1770
USDJPY S. 108.11 R. 109.37
GBPUSD S. 1.3235 R. 1.3377
USDCHF S. 0.9786 R. 0.9938
AUDUSD S. 0.7530 R. 0.7612
NZDUSD S. 0.6942 R. 0.7052
USDCAD S. 1.2747 R. 1.3097

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Tuesday, June 5th

The EUR/USD pair is trading with a mild bearish bias this Tuesday, failing to consolidate its positions above the level of 1.1700. Renewed weakness of the pair could be mainly explained by attempts of the US dollar to recover its positions after recent downside correction. Moreover, it seems that the dust around political situation in Italy has settled down, so the US dollar dynamics will continue to play a role of the key driver for the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, today the EZ data calendar will offer us bloc of local PMIs as well as overall EU PMI report, however, it is expected that these reports won’t provoke any notable reaction across the market. Meanwhile, the US will offer today the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair failed to extend its upside trend and now is retreating from its 6-week highs, marked on the level of 0.7666 on Monday, hitting session lows at 0.7625, on the back of dovish tone of the RBA. The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates unchanged at 1.5% as expected, however, pointing on a slowdown in some areas of the economy, such as labor market. In addition, the Bank noted that the low interest rate is supporting the Australian economy, so most likely we will witness low cash rate of the RBA for a longer period. The next event for the pair will be the release of the US ISM services PMI and JOLTs jobs report, but for now, investors will continue to digest recent event.

The GBP/USD pair today is trying to recover after its yesterday’s retreat to the region of the 1.3300. On Monday, the pair received notable bearish impetus, despite widespread risk appetite, as Brexit concerns stepped back to the forefront. According to the latest headlines, the Brexit bill will return to the House of Commons next week, after the Lords suggested 15 amendments to it. Those changes include core Brexit issues such as whether Britain should leave the EU’s single market and customs union. In addition, renewed demand for the US dollar across the market is limiting any attempts of the pair to recover after its yesterday’s decline, keeping its positions near the level of 1.3300. Now all markets attention remains focused on the UK service PMI, while the US will also release important macroeconomic data, offering fresh trading opportunities to investors during NA trades.

The USD/JPY pair keeps its positive tone for the third session in a row, having tested its psychological level of 110.00. The main driver for the pair remains ongoing divergence of the Fed and BoJ, as markets expect two more rate hikes from the US regulator this year, while the BoJ continues to maintain ultra-easy monetary policy. Moreover, the next week may strengthen the divergence, as we will see meetings of both regulators, where the Fed is expected to increase its rate by 25 bps. Meanwhile, renewed buying interest around the US dollar and demand for risky assets also provide support to the pair this Tuesday. Looking ahead, today investors will remain in anticipation of the data from the US economy, but until then the pair will continue to follow broad market sentiment.

Major events of the day:
UK Services PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US JOLTs Job Openings – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1615 R. 1.1785
USDJPY S. 109.17 R. 110.21
GBPUSD S. 1.3231 R. 1.3439
USDCHF S. 0.9802 R. 0.9934
AUDUSD S. 0.7519 R. 0.7731
NZDUSD S. 0.6947 R. 0.7091
USDCAD S. 1.2864 R. 1.3004

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Wednesday, June 6th

The EUR/USD pair is trading on a positive note so far this week, having reached its 2-week highs on the level of 1.1766. Recent positive rally of the pair can be mainly explained by recent market talks that the ECB can discuss the exit of its QE program on the next meeting, which will take place next week. Nevertheless, chances that the EU regulator will reduce the economy stimulation are pretty low, as latest EZ economic data didn’t show any positive dynamics, therefore most likely the ECB will keep its monetary policy accommodative. As for today, further dynamics of the pair will likely remain bullish, however, no aggressive movements are expected, as concerns regarding political situation in Italy are still weighing the common currency. On Wednesday, the economic calendar won’t offer anything important to investors, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during today session.

The GBP/USD pair remains well bid this Wednesday, having tested the area of 1.3400. It seems that the pound is still benefiting from streak of positive economic data, featuring yesterday’s upbeat UK service PMI. Recall, the pair fell from a high of 1.4376, marked on April, on the back of slowdown in the UK’s economy and not enough hawkish decision of the BoE at the May meeting. However, recent series of positive data has re-ignited market’s hopes of a BoE rate hike this year, allowing the pair to extend its recovery from its half-year lows, marked last week near the level of 1.3200. In the day ahead, the economic calendar will bring us only second-tier data reports, which won’t have any effect on the pair, so broad market trend will remain the key driver for GBP/USD this Wednesday.

The USD/CAD pair remains offered in the middle of the week, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 1.2928, on news of potential exemption of Canada from US metals tariffs. On Tuesday, Treasury Secretary S. Mnuchin urged President Trump to exempt Canada from steel and aluminum tariffs. This news offered notable support to the Loonie, allowing the pair to extend its downside trend. However, the final decision has not yet been taken, so now markets are awaiting for further actions from the US. In addition, the greenback is showing today sluggish dynamics that also negatively affects the pair this Wednesday. On the data front, today markets will focus their attention on the Canada Ivey PMI report, while US crude oil stockpiles will also be able to bring some impetus to the commodity-linked asset.

The AUD/USD pair regained its positive tone after decline in Tuesday’s trading and again refreshed its 6-week highs on the level of 0.7672. The Aussie emerged as the top gainer of this Asia on the back of several bullish factors. First, the pair received notable bullish impetus on the back of Australia’s GDP figures, which came above markets expectations and forced traders to forget about yesterday’s dovish RBA meeting. Moreover, ongoing demand for risky assets, additionally underpinned by talks about potential exemption of Canada from steel and aluminum tariffs, also supports the higher-yielding Aussie. Today the economic calendar of the US won’t offer investors anything relevant, so the pair will continue to follow broad market trend during today’s trades.

Major events of the day:
Canada Ivey PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1620 R. 1.1782
USDJPY S. 109.20 R. 110.34
GBPUSD S. 1.3261 R. 1.3477
USDCHF S. 0.9794 R. 0.9920
AUDUSD S. 0.7560 R. 0.7684
NZDUSD S. 0.6975 R. 0.7071
USDCAD S. 1.2820 R. 1.3144

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Thursday, June 7th

The EUR/USD pair extends its bullish rally, having broken through the level of 1.1900 in early Europe, on the back of several bullish factors, which are setting the direction for the pair this Thursday. The pair continues advancing northward, having left behind its multi-year lows, marked in the vicinity of 1.1500 last week. One of the main drivers for the pair remains widespread talks that the ECB will likely discuss the timetable for ending its stimulation program on the next meeting. In addition, ongoing retreat of the US dollar also contributes to a sharp correction of the pair. In the day ahead, both economic calendars won’t offer us anything important, leaving again the pair at the mercy of widespread sentiment during today’s trades.

The GBP/USD pair extends its northern rally, now testing the region of 1.3440, after bottoming its 6-month lows near the level of 1.3200 last week. It seems that the pound has recovered its positive tone after streak of red UK economic figures, which showed a slowdown in the British economy for the first quarter of 2018, thereby forcing the BoE to keep its rate unchanged, despite highly anticipated rate hike in May. However, latest UK macrostatistics showed slight pickup in the UK economy, so now investors are expecting a BoE rate hike sometime in the Q3 of this year that positively affects the pound across the board. On the other hand, further prospects of the pair remain unclear, as investors are waiting for any further developments on Brexit that is another source of uncertainty for the UK economy. As for the data, today we will have another quiet session amid lack of any fundamentals from both sides, so broad market trend will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair this Thursday.

The AUD/USD pair stepped back from its 2-week highs, marked on the level of 0.7676 on Wednesday, however, still trading on a positive note. Recall, yesterday the pair received notable bullish impetus on the back of upbeat Australian GDP figures, closing eyes to a dovish stance of the RBA on its last meeting, held earlier this week. However, it seems that the pair stalled its upside traction in Asia on the back of lower-then-expected Australian trade balance figures. On the other hand, the US dollar continues to show bearish dynamics lately that remains one of the key driving factors across the market, limiting any further retreat of the pair. Today we will witness another quiet data session, as the US calendar will offer us only second-tier data reports in the same way as Australia’s economy in Asia.

The USD/JPY pair lost its positive tone in Thursday and dropped below the level of 110.00 from its 2-week highs, located on the level of 110.26. Recent retreat of the pair could be mainly explained by subdued dynamics of the US dollar, as most of market participants believe that Fed rate hike next week is a done deal. In addition, growing cautiousness ahead of historic meeting between US President D. Trump and N. Korea leader Kim Jong-un, which will take place on June 12, despite all disagreements between sides, also provides some support to the safe-haven yen. In the day ahead, the pair will continue to follow broad market trend, as nothing important is scheduled in the economic data calendar for this Thursday.

Major events of the day:
BoC Governor S. Poloz’s Speech – 18.15 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1677 R. 1.1845
USDJPY S. 109.58 R. 110.58
GBPUSD S. 1.3346 R. 1.3478
USDCHF S. 0.9811 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7588 R. 0.7716
NZDUSD S. 0.6994 R. 0.7080
USDCAD S. 1.2797 R. 1.3053

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Friday, June 8th

The EUR/USD pair stalled its bullish trends after four consecutive sessions at a profit. Yesterday, the pair managed to refresh its 3-week highs on the level of 1.1840 on the back of widespread speculations that the ECB can discuss tapering of its QE program next week. So now we can say that the ECB meeting, which will be held next Thursday, has significantly increased in importance. However, today’s retreat can be attributed to correction of the pair after its notable growth and to attempts of the US dollar to regain its positions across the market. Meanwhile, the next important event for the pair remains G7 meeting, as investors expect that participants of the summit will discuss the ongoing trade conflicts. Moreover, French President Emmanuel Macron has already managed to speak out against the US protectionism policy and metal tariffs in particular. Besides the important G7 meeting, nothing else is scheduled in the event calendar for this Friday, so any developments regarding a potential trade war will remain in center stage.

The GBP/USD pair was flat in Asia, keeping its positions within 1.3410-30 range. Yesterday the pair witnessed pretty volatile session, having stepped back from its 2-week highs, marked on the level of 1.3471, on the back of rumors that the Brexit Secretary David Davis might resign. However, the decline of the pair was short-lived and the pair entered consolidation phase after brief correction. Meanwhile, now the pair remains under pressure, keeping its position in the lower end of its intraday range, as improved risk-off sentiments are weighing higher-yielding pound. As for the data, nothing important will be released during today’s trades, so widespread sentiment will remain the key driving factor for the pair during this Friday.

The USD/JPY pair failed to determine its direction in Asia amid confrontation between bulls and bears this Friday, however, keeping its positions below the level of 110.00. Today improved demand for less risky assets remains one of the main drivers across the board, as markets are awaiting G7 summit and fresh developments regarding a global trade war. On the other hand, the US dollar stalled its broad retreat and was attempting to correct higher in Asia, thereby limiting any further retreat of the pair. In addition, slew of negative Japanese figures, featuring GDB report, also weighed the yen, as it once again pointed out that the BoJ will continue to adhere its ultra-easy monetary policy. Looking ahead, as it has become a habit, today the US data calendar will offer us only second-tier data, so broad market trend will again remain as a key driver for the pair at the end of this week.

The AUD/USD pair extends its yesterday’s retreat, having spiked the level of 0.7600. Today increasing cautiousness across the market remains one of the key driving factors, as investors’ attention remains glued to the G7 summit, where markets expect to see fresh developments on a global trade war, and to the Fed meeting, which will be held next Wednesday already. In addition, the pair received some extra bearish impetus in Asia, caused by red Chinese trade balance figures, as Chine is the biggest trade partner of Australia. On the data front, nothing important is expected to be released, so the pair again will follow broad market trend this Friday.

Major events of the day:
Canada Employment Change – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1735 R. 1.1873
USDJPY S. 109.08 R. 110.50
GBPUSD S. 1.3323 R. 1.3521
USDCHF S. 0.9740 R. 0.9902
AUDUSD S. 0.7576 R. 0.7698
NZDUSD S. 0.7001 R. 0.7071
USDCAD S. 1.2893 R. 1.3041

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Tuesday, June 12th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive today, reaching the area of 1.1800. However, further growth of the pair remains capped on the back of bullish dynamics of the US dollar, following historic US-N. Korea summit. Today in Singapore took place much-awaited one-on-one meeting of Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un, where leaders signed a document, the content of which will be released later. Moreover, both leaders remained satisfied with the outcome of the meeting, while Mr. Kim Jong-un stressed that there would be challenges ahead but he would work with Mr. Trump, and he believes that this is a good prelude for peace. On the other hand, it is expected that the pair won’t show any sharp movements during today’s trades, as we are heading towards the Fed and ECB meetings, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday respectively. Both meetings will remain in the spotlight, as investors expected the Fed to increase its interest rate and the ECB to discuss the tapering of the QE program. But for today we have German and EU ZEW economic surveys and US inflation data, which will be able to form pair’s near-term trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair was struggling to find a direction in Asia, trading back and forth within 1.3340-80 range. On the one hand, today improved risk appetite, underpinned by positive comments of the US and N. Korea leaders after historic summit, offers support to higher-yielding pound. On the other hand, yesterday’s drop in UK manufacturing production and upcoming vote in the UK House of Commons on 15 amendments made by the House of Lords to the EU withdrawal bill are putting notable pressure on the British currency. Today both economies have prepared important data releases, which will offer investors fresh trading opportunities during this session, however, markets will also pay attention to UK’s parliament debates on Brexit, which will take place on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The USD/JPY pair refreshed its 3-week highs in the region of 110.50 during Asian session on the back of improved risk-on sentiment. The historic meeting between President Donald Trump and Mr. Kim Jong-un took place earlier today, and according to latest news reports, both leaders remained satisfied with the outcome of the meeting. The main topics to discuss were complete and verifiable denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and easing sanctions on North Korea. Although, the meeting was held without a press, we can say that both leaders intend to achieve a positive result in relations between the countries, which exerts notable pressure on the anti-risk yen across the board. However, that was not the only important event of this Tuesday, now market’s attention shifts towards the important US CPI release, which will bring another impetus to the pair during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains positive this Tuesday, having refreshed its intraday highs on the level of 0.7612. Today improved risk-on sentiment remains the key driving factors across the market, which was sparked by historic Trump-Kim summit. According to latest headlines, both leaders remained positive after one-on-one meeting, showing further intentions to join efforts to build lasting and stable peace. However, full list of discussed questions will be published later, so investors will remain in anticipation of further details of the meeting between the US and N. Korea. On the other hand, pair’s gains was limited in Asia, as Australian bulls received some negative impetus, as National Bank of Australia released economic data, showing a deterioration in business conditions. Meanwhile, further pair’s actions will be determined by broad market sentiment until the US CPI data, which are scheduled for release for the NY trades.

Major events of the day:
UK Average Earnings Index +Bonus – 11.30 (GMT +3)
UK Claimant Count Change – 11.30 (GMT +3)
German ZEW Economic Sentiment – 12.00 (GMT +3)
US Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1739 R. 1.1845
USDJPY S. 109.01 R. 110.63
GBPUSD S. 1.3291 R. 1.3487
USDCHF S. 0.9819 R. 0.9891
AUDUSD S. 0.7577 R. 0.7639
NZDUSD S. 0.6990 R. 0.7072
USDCAD S. 1.2915 R. 1.3061

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Wednesday, June 13th

The EUR/USD pair remains flat this Wednesday, trading in the region of 1.1735-55 in anticipation of key events. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of series of weak ZEW economic surveys and upbeat US inflation figures. However, the pair managed to recover some pips after yesterday’s retreat and consolidate its positions within recent range amid broad cautiousness ahead of FOMC and ECB meetings, which will be able to bring divergence between regulators’ policies back into the play. For the most of the market today’s Fed rate hike remains a done deal, so investors will pay attention to the Fed’s forward guidance, especially taking into account recent series of strong US macro data. Today the EU data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant, so investors will focus their attention on the key event of this Wednesday – the FOMC meeting, which will be able to spark some volatility across the market during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair extends its downside trend for the fourth consecutive session, now trading in the region of its weekly lows, marked on the level of 1.3320 a day before. Yesterday the pair failed to develop its bullish momentum, despite positive UK data from the labor market and the rejection of the key amendments during the Brexit vote in the UK parliament. Yesterday the House of Commons rejected a key article that would allow parliament to decide the next course of negotiations, thereby supporting the government and leaving UK PM Theresa May in charge of further negotiations with the EU. This outcome of the Brexit vote positively affected the Sterling, as it somewhat reduces the uncertainty in further negotiations. However, the pair failed to keep its positive mood, as US bull took the control over the pair after the US published important CPI report, which came above market expectations. Today the pair will experience a busy data session, as the economic calendar will bring us the UK CPI and US PPI figures, while the Fed interest decision will hog the limelight in the NY afternoon.

The USD/JPY pair remains better bid in the middle of the week, having reached its 3-week highs on the level of 110.69 during the Tokyo session. Recall, yesterday in Asia the pair came under bullish control on the back of improved risk appetite, underpinned by headlines that leaders of the US and North Korea signed a document, which provides for denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and the lifting sanctions from the US side. In addition, during yesterday’s NA session the pair received additional bullish impetus following positive US inflation figures, which once again fueled market expectations of more aggressive Fed monetary policy. However, further upside trend of the pair looks limited, as markets remain cautious ahead of Fed meeting, which is scheduled for NY afternoon. Moreover, later this week the BoJ monetary policy meeting will also take place, so it is expected that the divergence between the regulators’ policies will again come into play. Besides the FOMC meeting, today the US will also release PPI report, which will be able to offer additional trading opportunities to investors during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair remains pressured this Thursday, having tested its 2-week lows on the level of 0.7556, as Australian bulls remain exhausted. First, today the Aussie received negative impetus, following dovish comments of RBA Governor Phillip Lowe, who sees next cash rate hike some time away, as there is no strong need for any monetary policy adjustments. Moreover, positive rally of the US currency, sparked by yesterday’s positive inflation figures, also drives the pair to the negative territory this Wednesday. And finally, today the market witnessed swing in risk sentiment amid prevailing cautiousness ahead of important Fed monetary policy meeting, where the regulator is expected to increase its interest rate by 25 bps, which in turn negatively affects the higher-yielding Aussie. In addition, today the US will also publish PPI data, however, it is expected that this release won’t be able to cause any notable volatility across the market.

Major events of the day:
UK CPI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US PPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 17.30 (GMT +3)
Fed Interest Rate Decision – 21.00 (GMT +3)
FOMC Press Conference – 21.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1686 R. 1.1838
USDJPY S. 109.76 R. 110.80
GBPUSD S. 1.3296 R. 1.3462
USDCHF S. 0.9807 R. 0.9915
AUDUSD S. 0.7528 R. 0.7648
NZDUSD S. 0.6965 R. 0.7067
USDCAD S. 1.2948 R. 1.3066

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[EEAnalytics]

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Thursday, June 14th

The EUR/USD pair is following widespread sentiment this Thursday, having spiked the level of 1.1800 in early Europe. Today the weakness of the US dollar remains the key driving factor across the market on the back not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. Yesterday, as it was widely expected the Fed raised its interest up to 2%. Moreover, the regular indicated two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018 instead of 3 and revised to upside its economic projections for this year. However, the regulator didn’t make any adjustments to the neutral level of interest rate, so the rate will reach its neutral level by the end of 2019. The market negatively reacted on this news, as it means that the Fed will only accelerate the policy tightening cycle, but not expand it. Another reason of dollar retreat can be called its overbought condition, as Fed hawkish decision was fully priced-in and investors locked in some profits after the meeting, sending the greenback lower. But for now all investors’ eye remain glued to the ECB meeting. No any changes in interest rate are expected, however, investors will eagerly await for any comments regarding the QE program tapering. Besides the ECB meeting and subsequent press conference, markets will also pay attention to the US retail sales data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair is extending its bullish trend, testing the level of 1.3400 in early Europe. Earlier this week, the pound received notable bullish impetus after the House of Commons rejected amendments to Brexit bill, which would allow the British parliament to take the control over the Brexit negotiations, thus supporting the government and decreasing uncertainty around further negotiation process. Also it is worthy of note that yesterday’s British inflation came in line with markets expectations that indicates some recovery in UK’s economy. However, another bullish factor for the pair today remains broad retreat of the US dollar, as markets found the outcome of the Fed meeting not enough hawkish. Despite the fact that the regulator increased its interest rate by 25 bps and pointed out additional rate hike this year, the Fed didn’t make any adjustments to neutral level of interest rate, which only indicates the acceleration of the tightening cycle, rather than its expansion. As for the economic data, today both economies will offer investors retail sales data, while the US dollar dynamics will also be able to form pair’s further direction.

The AUD/USD pair is moving in the north direction, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 0.7550, despite broad weakness of the US dollar. Today the main driving factor across the market remains sell-off of the greenback, triggered by not enough hawkish FOMC meeting. However, it seems that pair is failing to benefit from widespread sentiment on the back of reports from Australian labor market and Chinese industrial production data, which both came below market expectations, thereby sending the Australian currency to the negative territory. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar will offer us retail sales data, while risk-off sentiment, underpinned by weak Chinese data, will continue to influence the pair this Thursday.

The USD/JPY pair remains defensive this Thursday, testing the level of 110.00, on the back of several factors, which are pushing the pair to the negative territory. First, one of the main drivers today remains broad weakness of the US dollar, as markets found yesterday’s outcome of the Fed meeting not enough hawkish. As it was widely expected, the regulator increased its interest rate by 0.25%. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference Fed Chair J. Powell said that he sees two more rate hikes this year with a total of 4 rate hikes in 2018, but not indicating higher neutral rate, which means that the Fed will only accelerate its tightening cycle, but not expand it. Meanwhile, all markets attention shifts towards the next risky event – BoJ meeting, which will bring the divergence between monetary policies back to the fore. Also today, investors will pay attention to the US data, while the risk-off sentiment ahead of the key event will continue to form pair’s near-term trajectory this Thursday.

Major events of the day:
UK Retail Sales – 11.30 (GMT +3)
ECB Interest Rate Decision – 14.45 (GMT +3)
ECB Press Conference – 15.30 (GMT +3)
US Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1696 R. 1.1850
USDJPY S. 109.91 R. 111.07
GBPUSD S. 1.3269 R. 1.3455
USDCHF S. 0.9808 R. 0.9918
AUDUSD S. 0.7494 R. 0.7652
NZDUSD S. 0.6938 R. 0.7096
USDCAD S. 1.2897 R. 1.3095

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[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, June 15th

The EUR/USD pair is extending its massive retreat, refreshing its 2-week lows on the level of 1.1543, as market speculations regarding yesterday’s ECB meeting are still weighting the common currency. Yesterday the pair witnessed a free fall, having lost almost 300 pips, triggered by ECB’s dovish QE program tapering and Mr. Draghi’s comments regarding next ECB rate hike. According to the results of the ECB meeting, the regulator intends to begin QE program tapering, but starting only in October. Moreover, during the subsequent press conference ECB President M. Draghi said that he sees next interest rate hike no sooner than summer 2019. The outcome of the ECB meeting negatively affected the common currency, sending it to its recent lows. Moreover, upbeat US retails sales data increased buying interest around the greenback, thus additionally accelerating pair’s drop. Now traders’ attention remains focused on the Eurozone inflation data, which is the last important release for this week, so investors will continue to digest recent events, thus determining pair’s further direction.

The USD/JPY pair accelerated its bullish move in Asia, having refreshed its 3-week highs on the level of 110.89. Earlier today, the pair received notable bullish impetus on the back of, as usually, dovish outcome of the BoJ meeting. As it was widely expected, the regulator didn’t announce any adjustments to its monetary policy or interest rate, however, cutting assessment on inflation. This outcome of the meeting once again highlighted the divergence between the Fed and BoJ, bringing it to the fore. Moreover, bullish dynamics of the US dollar is another driving factor for the pair, which is pushing it to in the north direction. As the BoJ meeting was the last important market mover of this busy week, investors will continue to digest recent events, therefore forming further pair’s trajectory.

The GBP/USD pair continues to move in the south direction after yesterday’s sharp drawdown, having refreshed its 2-week lows on the level of 1.3229. Today, significantly improved demand for the US dollar remains one of the key driving factors across the market, triggered by yesterday’s sharp retreat of the EUR/USD pair on the back of dovish outcome of the ECB meeting and positive US retail sales figures. In addition, it seems that markets have already digested recent vote on Brexit bill, where the House of Commons supported the UK government in the matter of further negotiations on Brexit, thus limiting any chances of the pound to recover against its US counterpart. Today both economic calendars remain relatively empty, offering only secondary data reports, so broad market sentiment will remain as a key determinant for the pair during this trading session.

The AUD/USD pair extends its downside trend, triggered by yesterday’s weak Australia employment data and Chinese industrial production, reaching its monthly lows on the level of 0.7453. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and RBA is another negative driver for the pair, as the Fed indicated faster rate hike path, while the RBA sees no need to raise the interest rate in the near future, which means that the Australian regulator will continue to adhere to its accommodative monetary policy. And finally, improved buying interest around the US dollar is also weighing the pair at the last working day of the week. Looking ahead, nothing much is left in the economic calendar, so speculations regarding recent events will remain as a key driver for the pair this Friday.

Major events of the day:
EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1371 R. 1.1947
USDJPY S. 109.63 R. 111.19
GBPUSD S. 1.3133 R. 1.3509
USDCHF S. 0.9775 R. 1.0071
AUDUSD S. 0.7403 R. 0.7621
NZDUSD S. 0.6923 R. 0.7071
USDCAD S. 1.2888 R. 1.3220

Your European ECN-broker,
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[EEAnalytics]

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Monday, June 18th

The EUR/USD pair again came under bearish pressure on Monday, failing to keep its positions above the level of 1.1600. Renewed weakness of the pair can be mainly explained by increased tensions regarding migration issue in Germany, where German Chancellor Angela Merkel opposes tightening the rules for the entry of migrants to Germany. A tough confrontation on this issue from Mrs. Merkel’s side can cause a repeat parliamentary election. Moreover, increased divergence between the Fed and ECB, following dovish comments of President M. Draghi, who sees next rate hike only next summer, is also putting some pressure on the common currency. As for economic events, today investors will focus their attention on the speech by Mr. Draghi at the Sintra Forum, which will take place during NY trades, while the US data calendar won’t be able to offer anything relevant this Monday.

The GBP/USD pair is flat on Monday, keeping its positions within the range of 1.3260-80. It seems that the bullish momentum of the pound, sparked by Brexit voting in the UK’s parliament, where the House of Commons supported the government, has faded away, as markets await for fresh developments regarding the ongoing Brexit negotiation process. In addition, broad risk aversion, backed by increased fears of a global trade war and upcoming BoE meeting, which will be held on Thursday, are also putting some pressure on the pound. Meanwhile, today both sides won’t surprise investors with anything important, so widespread sentiment will remain as an exclusive driver for the pair on Monday.

The USD/JPY pair remains bearish at the start of this week, having tested its intraday lows on the level of 110.30, as risk-off sentiment is one of the main drivers across the market. On Friday, US President administration said that it would impose tariffs on $50 billion of Chinese import. In turn, the Chinese government took retaliatory measures, having announced tariffs on US goods, including agriculture products, cars, coal and oil. The escalating dispute between two biggest economies increased fears of a global trade war, thus improving demand for the safe-haven yen. However, bearish trend of the pair also remains capped, as last week’s monetary policy meetings increased divergence between the Fed and BoJ, which supports to the pair lately. In the day ahead, the US data calendar won’t offer markets anything relevant, so broad market trend and risk sentiment will continue to navigate the pair.

The AUD/USD pair remains under pressure this Monday, having refreshed its 7-week lows on the level of 0.7425. One of the main reasons of pair’s downside trend remains widespread demand for safe-haven assets, underpinned by full-blown trade war between the US and China, that negatively affects the higher-yielding Aussie. However, the pair managed to recover some part of its losses and corrected to the region of 0.7450 in early Europe on the back of slight retreat of the US currency after its massive bullish rally, seen last week. Moreover, markets also supported the Aussie on the back of recent news that the EU and Australia have begun talks to create a free trade pact together. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t bring us anything noteworthy, so investors will remain in anticipation of the RBA minutes, scheduled for next Asia.

Major events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 20.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1508 R. 1.1676
USDJPY S. 110.13 R. 111.17
GBPUSD S. 1.3177 R. 1.3351
USDCHF S. 0.9926 R. 1.0014
AUDUSD S. 0.7408 R. 0.7504
NZDUSD S. 0.6899 R. 0.6999
USDCAD S. 1.3054 R. 1.3286

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee

[EEAnalytics]

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Tuesday, June 19th

The EUR/USD pair failed to extend its recovery and fell to its intraday lows, located on the level of 1.1571, following broad market trend. Today one of the main drivers across the market remain the US dollar price movements, determined by the escalation of dispute between the US and China. Recall, on Friday China announced tariffs on US imports, despite the US President’s warnings of a possible retaliatory measures. However, the response from the US side was immediate and Mr. Trump announced additional tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods. On another front, ECB President M. Draghi is expected to deliver his speech on ECB Forum in Sintra today, where markets expect to see fresh comments on the QE program and further actions of the Bank. However, according to broad market forecasts Mr. Draghi will keep his dovish tone in line with previous rhetoric, seen on the press conference last week. Besides ECB President’s speech, investors will also pay attention to the US macroeconomic data, which will be published during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair remains offered this Tuesday, heading towards last week’s lows, located in the region of 1.3280. The main reason of pair’s recent drawdown can be called broad risk-off sentiment, underpinned by escalation of the US-China trade conflict after the US President announced that he seeks for additional tariffs on China imports. However, the main event for the pair this week remains the BoE meeting, which will take place this Thursday, and where investors expect to see fresh comments regarding further Bank’s monetary policy actions. But until then, broad cautiousness will also put some pressure on the higher-yielding pound. On the other side, lowered chances of a hard-Brexit scenario after recent vote in the UK parliament are still limiting pair’s downside actions. In the day ahead, the UK calendar won’t surprise us with anything important, so investors will focus their attention on the US data, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction.

The AUD/USD pair continues trading in the south direction for the fourth consecutive session, having tested its yearly lows on the level of 0.7377. Earlier this Tuesday, the RBA published its meeting minutes, leaving no chances for the pair to recover its positions. The regulator once again noted that low rates support the economy, while growth of the employment rate and inflation is expected to be only gradual. Morever, the Bank pointed out at additional risks from the global economy, such as political situation in Italy and growing tensions between the US and China. Therefore, the RBA’s protocols once again did not become a surprise for the market, bringing the divergence between the regulators of the US and Australia to the forefront. But now investors’ attentions shifts towards the US data from the housing market, which expectedly will bring fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The USD/JPY pair dipped in Asia, losing nearly 100 pips, as risk-off sentiment are gripping the market so far this week. Today the pair came under bearish pressure, following escalation of the US-China trade conflict. According to the latest news, US President D. Trump intends to impose additional tariffs on Chinese goods. This move from the US side came after China announced tariffs on $50 billion worth of US goods. Moreover, it seems that the US-China trade war has overshadowed the divergence between the Fed and BoJ, so the pair remains under total control of risk aversion. As for the data, investors will remain in anticipation of US building permits, while any further developments in the US-China trade conflict will be able to bring impetus to the pair.

Major events of the day:
ECB President M.Draghi’s Speech – 11.00 (GMT +3)
US Building Permits – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1544 R. 1.1664
USDJPY S. 110.08 R. 110.98
GBPUSD S. 1.3194 R. 1.3312
USDCHF S. 0.9905 R. 1.0013
AUDUSD S. 0.7386 R. 0.7476
NZDUSD S. 0.6899 R. 0.6975
USDCAD S. 1.3110 R. 1.3290

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee

[EEAnalytics]

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Thursday, June 21st

The EUR/USD is losing ground for the third session in a row, now trading in the region of its 3-week lows, marked in the region of 1.1530 earlier this week. It seems that the US dollar regained today its bullish tone, forcing its major counterparts to step lower. Moreover, recently emerged uncertainty on the political field of Germany regarding immigrants issue is another negative factor for the common currency, which is pushing the pair in the south direction. As for the data, today the EU economic calendar won’t offer us anything noteworthy, while the US has prepared Philly manufacturing index, which will be able to bring some volatility during the NA session. In addition, today investors will also pay attention to the BoE meeting, as in the case of significant volatility the pair will receive some correlational impetus.

The GBP/USD pair continues to sink so far this week, having reached its fresh 7-month lows on the level of 1.3130 in early Europe, on the back of renewed demand for the US dollar. However, today all traders’ attention remains glued to the BoE meeting. It is expected that the regulator will keep its rate unchanged, so markets will pay more attention to talks of MPC members regarding further monetary policy course. Any comments, pointing to the fact that the 2018 Q1 growth slowdown was temporary will underpin markets hopes of an August hike, thereby offering support to the pound across the market. On the other hand, reaffirming that Brexit remains a source of notable risks for the economy can be interpret as a dovish sign that will negatively affect market’s hopes of a rate hike in the third quarter. Besides the BoE meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US data, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The NZD/USD pair remains one of the weakest assets of this Thursday, having refreshed its 2018 lows at 0.6828 spot. Today the main driving factor across the market remains renewed buying interest around the US dollar, which is pushing all major currencies lower, including the Kiwi. Moreover, the market mostly ignored NZ Q1 GDP numbers, which came in at expectations, offering no support to the pair. Meanwhile, in mid-term perspective, the pair will remain pressured, as increased divergence between CBs of the US and NZ will remain one of the main drivers for the pair. On the data front, today we have only Philly manufacturing index scheduled for release, so the US dollar price dynamics will continue to navigate the pair during this trading session.

The USD/CHF pair turned around and eased most of its today’s gains in Europe, having refreshed its intraday lows on the level of 0.9948, on the back of hawkish outcome of the SNB meeting. As it was widely expected, the Swiss regulator left its interest rate unchanged at -0.75%, while revising its inflation forecast to the upside. However, now all markets’ attention shifts towards the press conference, where investors expect to see comments regarding further actions of the SNB, dovish tone of the ECB, political situation in Italy and a slowdown in global economy. In addition, today investors will also pay attention to the US data, which will be able to bring some impetus to the pair during NY trades.

Major events of the day:
SNB Interest Rate Decision – 10.30 (GMT +3)
SNB Press Conference – 11.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Interest Rate Decision – 14.00 (GMT +3)
Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index – 15.30 (GMT +3)
BoE Governor M. Carney’s Speech – 23 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1507 R. 1.1637
USDJPY S. 109.62 R. 110.82
GBPUSD S. 1.3110 R. 1.3248
USDCHF S. 0.9913 R. 1.0007
AUDUSD S. 0.7338 R. 0.7424
NZDUSD S. 0.6819 R. 0.6941
USDCAD S. 1.3235 R. 1.3369

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee

[EEAnalytics]

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Friday, June 22nd

The EUR/USD pair remains positive on Friday, having recovered from the region of its June lows, marked yesterday on the level of 1.1509. It seems that US bulls have lowered its pressure on the market, allowing the major currencies to recover part of its previous losses. The main reason of greenback softness can be called diminishing tensions in the US-China trade conflict, as the White House seeks to restart negotiations with Beijing, before the conflict overgrow to a trade war. Moreover, it seems that the common currency ignored today’s mixed data on German PMI and kept its positive tone. On the data front, today both economies won’t offer anything interesting to investors, so the US dollar price dynamics and widespread sentiment will continue to form pair’s further trend.

The GBP/USD pair extends its bullish trend, getting closer to the level of 1.3300 on Friday, on the back of hawkish outcome of yesterday’s BoE meeting. On Thursday, MPC of Britain published the results of voting on the interest rate, where 3 of 9 members voted to raise the rate by 25 bps. The market considered this outcome of the meeting as a sign of a possible rate hike in August that positively affected position of the pound across the market. Moreover, the Bank once again pointed out that the 2018 Q1 economic growth slowdown was temporary, and also noted that QE program tapering could begin, when the interest rate increases up to 1.5%, rather than previously announced 2.0%. Moreover, improved risk appetite across the market is another bullish factor for the pound today, which is accelerating growth of the pair. Today both economic calendars will remain silent, offering only second-tier data reports, so the market will continue to digest recent events, thus setting up pair’s further direction.

The USD/CHF pair is trading in the south direction at the end of this working week, keeping its positions near its weekly lows, marked in the region of 0.9900 a day before. Yesterday the Swiss regulator left its interest rate unchanged, but revised its inflation forecast to the upside. However, the overall outcome of the meeting cannot be called hawkish, as SNB Chairman Thomas Jordan reiterated that the Frank remains overvalued and the regulator is ready to intervene into the FX market if necessary. Also Mr. Jordan added that the Bank will continue adhering to ultra-easy monetary policy. Nevertheless, the pair extended its downside trade, despite dovish comments of the SNB Chairman, that can be explained by offered tone of the US dollar. Today we expect a quiet session ahead, as nothing important is scheduled in the economic calendar, so broad market trend will play a role of the key driver for the pair this Friday.

The USD/JPY pair remains flat at the last session of the week, trading around the level of 110.00, despite broad softness of the US dollar. Limited actions of the pair can be mainly explained by reemerged risk-on sentiment on rumors that the White House is planning to restart talks with Beijing before US-Chine conflict overgrow to a full-blown trade war between two world’s biggest economies. In addition, significant divergence between the Fed and BoJ continues to offer support to the pair, as Japanese inflation remains far away from its target level, which means that the BoJ will continue to use ultra-easy monetary policy for a longer period. Today the US data calendar will offer us only second-tier data, therefore the pair will continue to follow the general market trend during this trading session.

Major events of the day:
Prelim. German Manufacturing PMI – 10.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core CPI – 15.30 (GMT +3)
Canada Core Retail Sales – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1458 R. 1.1706
USDJPY S. 109.26 R. 111.12
GBPUSD S. 1.3036 R. 1.3374
USDCHF S. 0.9845 R. 1.0023
AUDUSD S. 0.7323 R. 0.7421
NZDUSD S. 0.6791 R. 0.6937
USDCAD S. 1.3261 R. 1.3369

Your European ECN-broker,
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[Juzahe]

News has a huge impact on the forex market as all the experienced traders and huge investors trade with the news. The market movements depend on the psychology of the traders and psychology depends on the news in the modern world. It is a truth!

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Friday, June 29th

The EUR/USD pair witnessed a volatile session in Asia, having jumped for 100 pips and refreshed its intraday highs on the level of 1.6666. On Friday, 28 EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issue after lasting talks, which implies that EU countries can accept immigrants on a voluntary basis. This outcome has eased concerns over migration issue in Germany, however, Chancellor Angela Merkel stated that German government still has a lot to do to close the question. In addition, bearish dynamics of the US dollar also collaborates to pair’s recovery on Friday. Today traders will focus their attention on the EU CPI data and second round of the EU Summit, while the US data calendar won’t offer us anything relevant at the end of the week.

The GBP/USD pair has finally managed to recover some pips from its 7-month lows, located on the level of 1.3050, after 3-day downside rally. It seems that improved risk sentiment, caused by EU agreement on the migration issue, and weaker US dollar allowed the pair to recover some ground at the end of this week. However, the pound remains extremely vulnerable, as recent talks of the BoE MPC members leave much to be desired. Moreover, on Wednesday the BoE released their latest Financial Stability Report, which again highlighted risks to the UK economy related to uncertainty around Brexit. But now all trader’s attention shifts towards the UK GDP report, which is the only important release for today, so broad market trend will remain the key determinant for the pair later this Friday.

The USD/JPY pair continues trading in the north direction for the fourth consecutive session, having tested its weekly highs on the level of 110.79, on the back of renewed buying interest to higher-yielding assets. Today improved risk-on sentiment remains the underlying theme across the market, which was sparked by the outcome of the EU Summit, where 28 EU leaders reached an agreement on migration issue. Moreover, it seems that better demand for risky assets has overshadowed several bearish drivers, such as negative dynamics of the US dollar and upbeat Japan’s inflation figures, thus limiting pair’s chances on a downside correction. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t be able to surprise investors with anything relevant, so risk sentiment and US dollar price dynamics will continue to determine pair’s further direction.

The AUD/USD pair is one of the best performers of this Asia, having bounced off the area of 1.5-year lows, marked on the level of 0.7324 earlier this week. The main reason pair’s U-turn can be called improved demand for risky assets, such as the Aussie, on the back of agreement between EU countries regarding migration issue. In addition, downward correction of the US dollar is another positive factor for the pair, which allows major currencies to recover the ground at the end of this week. On the data front, today the US economic calendar will remain silent, offering only second-tier data, so broad market trend will remain the key navigator for the pair during this trading session.

Major events of the day:
German Unemployment Change – 11.00 (GMT +3)
UK GDP – 11.30 (GMT +3)
Prelim. EU CPI – 12.00 (GMT +3)
EU Leaders Summit – 13.00 (GMT +3)
Canada GDP – 15.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1493 R. 1.1639
USDJPY S. 109.67 R. 111.09
GBPUSD S. 1.3009 R. 1.3161
USDCHF S. 0.9931 R. 1.0015
AUDUSD S. 0.7315 R. 0.7381
NZDUSD S. 0.6706 R. 0.6836
USDCAD S. 1.3169 R. 1.3395

Your European ECN-broker,
Forex.ee

[EEAnalytics]

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Monday, July 2nd

The EUR/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone, facing resistance in the region of 1.1690, on the back of Germany’s political uncertainty. According to the latest news reports, Minister of the Interior Horst Seehofer threatened to leave his position, as he is unsatisfied with Mrs. Merkel’s solutions on immigration issue. This statement put in question current governing coalition and further politics of Mrs. Merkel, thus dramatically increasing tensions surrounding the German political climate. Moreover, improved demand for the US currency is another underlying theme across the market, which is putting pressure on the pair at the start of this week. As for the data, today both sides will offer investors manufacturing PMIs, which will be able to determine pair’s further direction, while any developments on the political field of Germany will also be able to bring some impetus to the pair.

The GBP/USD pair stalled its recovery, dipping back below the level of 1.3200, on the back of fresh developments regarding Brexit. As became known, UK PM Theresa May has warned parliament that EU is unlikely to soften its position on Brexit and hard Brexiteers will soon have to choose between saving the sovereignty of Britain and access to the EU’s single market. This news exerted notable pressure on the pair, limiting its further upside correction. Moreover, renewed demand for safety is another bearish driver for the pound at the start of this week, which is also capping pair’s upside. In the day ahead, both economies will offer investors manufacturing data, which will be able to set up pair’s further direction this Monday.

The USD/JPY pair continues trading in the north direction for the fifth session in a row, having spiked the level of 111.00. Ongoing upside trend of the pair is mostly attributed to renewed buying interest around the US dollar after its recent drawdown. However, further gains of the pair look limited, as swing in risk sentiment offers support to the yen. According to the latest news reports, recent political drama in Germany has gathered pace, as ruling coalition still can’t find a compromise on immigration issue. Moreover, it is expected that the market will remain cautious, as we have busy week ahead with NFP scheduled for Friday that also exerts some pressure on the pair. But for today the US has prepared ISM manufacturing data, which will be able to bring some fresh trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair failed to keep its positive tone at the start of this week after two days at a profit, having refreshed its intraday lows in the region of 0.7370. Today the Australian currency remains under pressure of several bearish factors, so any upside correction of the pair looks unlikely. First, renewed demand for safety, caused by weak China’s manufacturing data and ongoing political drama in Germany, is weighing on the higher-yielding Aussie. Moreover, bullish tone of the greenback is another factor, which is pushing the pair into the red zone at the start of this week. Meanwhile, next important event for the pair will be the RBA interest rate decision, which is scheduled for next Asia. It is broadly expected that the regulator will keep it cash rate unchanged, so traders will be looking for any adjustments to the CB’s statement. Besides the RBA’s meeting, investors will also pay attention to the US manufacturing data due for released during the NA session.

Major events of the day:
German Manufacturing PMI – 10.55 (GMT +3)
UK Manufacturing PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)
US ISM Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1513 R. 1.1777
USDJPY S. 110.10 R. 111.24
GBPUSD S. 1.3016 R. 1.3310
USDCHF S. 0.9834 R. 1.0022
AUDUSD S. 0.7309 R. 0.7459
NZDUSD S. 0.6717 R. 0.6815
USDCAD S. 1.3024 R. 1.3332

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Tuesday, July 3rd

The EUR/USD pair regained its positive tone after yesterday’s drawdown, having reentered the area of 1.1650. Today’s recovery can be mostly explained by a deal on immigration, reached within German Chancellor Angela Merkel governing coalition. As it became known, Mrs. Merkel and Interior Minister Horst Seehofer reached a compromise on immigration issue. Therefore, ruling coalition remains safe for now, as Mr. Seehofer dropped his threat to resign. Moreover, persisting bearish dynamics of the US dollar remains one of the key driving factor across the market that also offers some support to the pair this Tuesday. As for the data, nothing much is scheduled in the economic calendar for today, except several second-tier data reports, so the pair will keep following broad market trend for any direction.

The AUD/USD pair is recovering its positions after testing its 1.5-year lows on the level of 0.7311. Yesterday the pair came under notable bearish pressure on the back of improved demand for safety, which was caused by weaker-than-expected China’s manufacturing data and uncertainty on the political field of Germany. However, the pair managed recover some pips this Tuesday in wake of ongoing downside correction of the US dollar. Meanwhile, it seems that the market totally ignored the RBA interest rate decision, which was held in Asia, as the regulator failed to surprise investors with anything new. The Bank kept its rate unchanged while reiterating that the inflation would likely remain slow for some time and low rates are supporting the economy. Looking ahead, today the US data calendar won’t bring us anything interesting, so investors will focus their attention on Australian retail sales, but until than the US dollar price dynamics will remain the key driver for the pair.

The GBP/USD pair corrects higher after yesterday’s retreat, but remains under pressure. Recall, on Monday the pound came under notable bearish pressure on the back of fresh headlines on Brexit, saying that UK Prime Minister Theresa May warned the parliament that they would soon have to decide whether to preserve the sovereignty of UK or withdrawal from the EU trade zone, as EU leaders in Brussels are not interested in making concessions. This uncertainty puts notable pressure on the pound, as hard Brexit scenario can negatively affect business in UK. On the other hand, today the US dollar continues to loose against its major counterparts, allowing the pair to recover some pips this Tuesday. Meanwhile, market’s attention remains focused on the UK construction PMI, which is the only important release for today, so broad market sentiment will keep navigating the pair in the session ahead.

The USD/JPY pair advances for the sixth session in a row, having spiked the level of 111.00. There is no clear catalysts for upside trend of the pair, so markets are expecting that the pair will change its direction soon. Moreover, today broad weakness of the US dollar and persisting risk-off sentiment are still putting pressure on the pair, thus capping its further gains. On the data front, today nothing interesting is scheduled in the data calendar for the pair, so risk sentiment and greenback price dynamics will remain the only drivers for the pair. However, investors will remain in anticipation of the key risky events of this week – releases of FOMC minutes and NFP figures, scheduled for the second half of this week.

Major events of the day:
UK Construction PMI – 11.30 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1539 R. 1.1743
USDJPY S. 110.40 R. 111.30
GBPUSD S. 1.3030 R. 1.3272
USDCHF S. 0.9865 R. 1.0001
AUDUSD S. 0.7253 R. 0.7453
NZDUSD S. 0.6628 R. 0.6836
USDCAD S. 1.3096 R. 1.3274

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[EEAnalytics]

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Thursday, July 5th

The EUR/USD pair remains positive this Thursday, having rallied for almost 50 pips and spiked the level of 1.1700 in early Europe. The latest gains of the pair can be mainly explained by news reports, citing that ECB members see a rate hike at the end of 2019 as too late. Moreover, ongoing retreat of the US dollar against its major rivals, backed by the looming US-China tariffs deadline, also offers some support to the pair this week. Looking ahead, today the EU data calendar will remain silent, so investors will pay attention to US releases and FOMC minutes, which will be able to spark some volatility during the NA session.

The GBP/USD pair trades in the north direction for the third consecutive session, having refreshed its weekly highs in the region of 1.3250. It seems that the pound is still trying to recover its positions after testing 7-month lows in the region of 1.3050 last week. Moreover, yesterday’s positive UK service PMI and inability of US bulls to resist pressure from pound’s side due to closed US markets also offered some support to the pair. However, the upside of the pair also looks limited, as the uncertainty over Brexit and broad risk aversion are putting some pressure on the pound. Today we have pretty busy session ahead, as the economic calendar will bring us the speech of BoE Governor M. Carney, US employment data and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI, and the FOMC meeting minutes will hog the limelight in late NA session.

The USD/JPY pair stalled its retreat and performed a U-turn in early Europe, gaining more than 30 pips and entering the area of 110.60, despite persisting sell-off of the greenback. The recent growth of the pair can be mainly explained by dovish comments of BoJ’s Member of the Policy Board Ms. Takako Masai, who again reiterated that inflation target level of 2% is still far away. However, further gains of the pair look restricted, as markets are preparing for the US to implement new tariffs on Chinese imports. Moreover, Beijing stated that it does not want to unleash a war, but it would not stand aside in case of aggression, so markets are also expecting retaliation measures from China. On the data front, today we have a busy session ahead, as the US has prepared for us the ADP employment data, ISM non-manufacturing PMI, and FOMC meeting minutes, which will be able to bring additional trading opportunities during the NA session.

The AUD/USD pair is struggling to find a clear direction, having stuck between bulls and bears in the region of 0.7365-90. Persisting weakness of the US dollar remains the underlying theme across the market so far this week, thus offering support to the pair. On the other hand, reemerged risk-off sentiments amid upcoming US tariffs on Chinese imports and NFP report are limiting any gains of the higher-yielding Aussie. Meanwhile, today investors will focus their attention on a slew of US economic releases, while the key risky event for today will be the release of the FOMC meeting minutes, which is scheduled for the NA afternoon.

Major events of the day:
BoE Governor M. Carney’s Speech – 13.00 (GMT +3)
US ADP Nonfarm Employment Change – 15.15 (GMT +3)
US ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI – 17.00 (GMT +3)
US Crude Oil Inventories – 18.00 (GMT +3)
FOMC Meeting Minutes – 21.00 (GMT +3)

Support and resistance levels for the major currency pairs:
EURUSD S. 1.1603 R. 1.1709
USDJPY S. 110.13 R. 110.81
GBPUSD S. 1.3137 R. 1.3297
USDCHF S. 0.9888 R. 0.9960
AUDUSD S. 0.7342 R. 0.7444
NZDUSD S. 0.6727 R. 0.6803
USDCAD S. 1.3085 R. 1.3195

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