Forex.ee: Daily economic news digest

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Friday, September 11th

AUD/USD was stronger today in Asia with no major data scheduled and investors are not showing activity ahead of the weekend Chinese retail sales and industrial production data for August. AUD/USD was at 0.7075, up 0.13%. The support and resistance levels are located at 0.6974 and 0.7200, respectively.

EUR/USD rose considerably on Thursday for its sixth consecutive successful session, as disappointing U.S. import-export data added further confusion as to whether the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates later next week. The currency pair traded in a broad range between 1.1132 and 1.1295 before settling at 1.1279. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.1300 ahead of Eurogroup meeting and US PPI data. The support can be found at 1.1170, while resistance is located at 1.1407.

NZD/USD was heading up this morning even though the NZ FPI contracted 0.5%. RBNZ offshore holdings were little changed comparing to the reading of last month at 64.60%. The pair reached as high as 0.6317 today and the bulls are currently defending the 0.63 level. Next week will provide data on NZ current account and GDP.

GBP/USD continued compensating its recent losses after despite a small contraction on Wednesday over negative manufacturing data. The pair has returned to its previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5690 and 1.5425. Ahead in the day, investors are viewing the British Inflation Expectation and the forecasts are mostly bullish.

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Monday, September 14th

AUD/USD was higher this morning opening trades at 0.7081.Chinese data was mixed with fixed asset investment rising 10.9% while industrial production gained 6.1%, below the 6.4% expected and retail sales rose 10.8%, above the 10.5% seen. Tomorrow, investors are viewing the outcome of Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes in Australia. Currently, the aussie is changing hands at 0.7067 with support at 0.6982 and resistance at 0.7122.

USD/JPY was mostly flat this morning despite Japanese industrial production contracting more than expected by 0.8%. The Capacity Utilization rate was down 0.2%. Markets now await Tuesday’s BOJ rate decision for more cues on further QQE amid no significant data to be reported later today. The pair is trading at 120.27.

GBP/USD is keeping above 1.5425 with the current quote at 1.5444. This week, data is expected from the UK including CPI, PPI, average earnings and retails sales. The expectations are inclined towards some bullish developments this week, however the Fed Monetary Policy Meeting on Thursday poses some downward risks to this pair. The support can be found at 1.5348 and resistance is located at 1.5512.

EUR/USD is going up again, which makes it a seventh successful session for the pair. The euro is currently quoted at 1.1365. While Industrial production data is expected tomorrow, more news is due later in the week, including ZEW Economic Sentiment and CPI. It is expected that a pair might reach as high as 1.1428 before showing some downside to 1.1287.

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Tuesday, September 15th

AUD/USD was weaker after RBA minutes discussion of the impact caused by Chinese slowdown. During the meeting, members noted that Chinese authorities had for some time been selling foreign exchange reserves to prevent the depreciation of yuan against the US dollar in view of significant capital outflows, which contrasted with the experience in the previous decade. RBA is expected to keep the current monetary policy and continue monitoring data while inflation remains on target. The Australian dollar opened trades at 0.7134 subsequently easing to 0.7111. Australian data suggested that New Motor Vehicle Sales contracted by 1.6% in August after 1.3% fall of July. The support can be found at 0.7065, while resistance is located at 0.7226.

GBP/USD is slightly down today after a volatile trading session seen on Monday. However, the cable remains in its previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5415 and 1.5690. From the technical point of view, the pound has compensated losses of the beginning of September, but in order to continue its bullish trend, Britain will need to provide some solid fundamental data. Ahead in the day, markets are watching the UK CPI and PPI figures. The experts are forecasting a surge to 1.55 later in the week, but on the downside, support can be met at 1.5273.

USD/JPY showed some downside on Tuesday after BoJ left its monetary policy unchanged and investors remained cautious ahead of the Fed policy statement expected later in the week. The officials called for ¥80 trillion in annual asset purchases by central bank to help raise the inflation and support growth. Yesterday’s Japanese data showed that Industrial Production in Japan was lower by 0.8% in July. On the US side, Fed Chair Janet Yellen has said that an interest rate increase solely depends on the data but it is highly anticipated that the rates will be raised before the end of this year. The yen might go as low as 118.94, where it will meet the support eventually rebounding to the 120.54 area with next resistance at 121.15.

EUR was down on Monday after unstoppable six-day rise against the US dollar. It seems like investors are showing some reasonable skepticism before the possible rate hike in the US on Thursday, so the current 1.1309 price might fall below 1.1276 in course of today’s session. From euro zone, data is expected, including Employment Change, Trade Balance and Zew Economic Sentiment. On the US side, traders are watching the retail sales numbers.

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Wednesday, September 16th

NZD/USD is moving up for the fourth consecutive session as NZ current account data comes out in green colour. The market opened at 0.6352 this morning and eventually reached its current level at 0.6360. Analysts had expected the current account figures to fall into a deficit of NZ$ 1.50B but the actual figure was 1.22B. Tomorrow, markets are watching the GDP number of New Zealand. Current support and resistance levels are located at 0.6292 and 0.6435, respectively.

AUD/USD was weaker amid comments from RBA officials, but now the pair is pushing higher currently changing hands at 0.7163. The pair has an immediate resistance at 0.7166 (Sept 15 High) level, above which gains could be extended to 0.7207 (Aug 28 High) level. On the downside, support is seen at 0.7100 level from where it can go lower to 0.7060 (Sept 14 Low).

GBP/USD was broadly lower amid mixed economic data from the UK of Tuesday. The CPI figures were out in line with expectations while PPI MoM data was mostly in red colour. The current quote is 1.5335 and the pound is still moving down. Today, average earnings numbers are due from the United Kingdom. On the US side, investors will be viewing the Crude Oil Inventories and Core CPI.

EUR/USD is erasing its gains of the previous week currently trading at 1.1257. Yesterday’s data showed positive employment change in the euro zone. However, ZEW Economic Sentiment was lower at 33.3. The CPI data is published shortly. The pair might find support at 1.1172 and resistance at 1.1356.

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Thursday, September 17th

NZD/USD slipped lower amid NZ GDP coming out in red colour. Analysts expected that the economy growth pace would be 0.5% QoQ and 2.5% YoY. However, the actual figures were both 0.1% lower than expected. The main point of attention is now on Fed Monetary Policy decision due later in the day. The pair was down at 0.6334 earlier this morning, but having compensated the initial losses, NZD is now changing hands at 0.6360 against its US counterpart with support and resistance levels at 0.6317 and 0.6429, respectively.

AUD/USD was slightly down ahead of the interest rate decision in the US. The pair opened trades at 0.7196 slipping lower from its 3-week highs to 0.7171 by the beginning of European session. The recent interest of investors in riskier assets will be highly affected in case Fed actually raises rates today, as dollar will be able to provide more yields not to mention the stability. The pair is likely to find support in 0.7086 area, while resistance is located at 0.7275.

GBP/USD was seen as one of the biggest gainers yesterday, as the price rallied to 1.5528 amid strong labor market data. The pair promises to show some volatile trades later in the day as retail sales data is out before the significant news from the US including Building permits , Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index and, of course, the Interest rate decision. The support is seen at 1.5334, while resistance is located at 1.5690.

EUR/USD was a bit higher currently changing hands at 1.1301.Yesterday, European data was almost in line with expectations. However, the CPI was 0.1% lower than the expected reading of 0.2%. Tomorrow, the market is watching euro zone current account figures.

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Friday, September 18th

USD/CAD was higher yesterday after release of upbeat data on the US jobless claims and housing. While analysts expected that the number of individuals filing for initial jobless claims would stay flat, the numbers showed a decrease by 11,000. The number of building permits increased 3.5%, beating the expectations by 0.4%. Although, the pair slipped lower as the Fed left interest rates unchanged yesterday. Ahead in the day, investors are viewing Canadian data on Core CPI. The pair is trading at 1.3159 with support seen right below at 1.3125 and resistance at 1.3256.

USD/CHF was down on Thursday amid weaker dollar and SNB leaving interest rates at their current. SNB stated that Swiss franc is still significantly overvalued, despite slight depreciation, which has been putting significant brake on the Swiss economy since mid-January. The pair eased even more when as Fed left the interest rates at their current level between zero and 0.25%. It was noted that recent global economic and financial developments may restrain economic activity and are likely to put pressure on inflation. J. Yellen said that the bank will begin monetary policy normalization when it sees further improvements in the labor market. The pair is changing hands at 0.9615 easing from its one-month highs of 0.9823.

GBP/USD was little changed after retail sales data announcement. The pair started yesterday’s trades at 1.5488 and managed to move up to 1.5627 level after release of the news from US. Currently changing hands at 1.5575, the pair is likely to remain flat without any significant news releases. Overall, the support is seen at the bottom consolidation border of 1.5425 and resistance at 1.5690.

EUR/USD awaits the publication of euro zone current account. The pair was moving down since opening trades at 1.1433 in Asia. Later in the day, we might see some more downside at 1.1385. Next week, Manufacturing PMI data is expected from Europe, while the US side will provide GDP figures, as well as new home sales and core durable goods orders numbers.


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Monday, September 21st

NZD/USD is lower after a downbeat consumer sentiment report. NZD/USD opened trades at 0.6396 and fell to 0.6359 in Asia as Westpac Banking Corporation reported that its consumer sentiment index for New Zealand fell to 106 in the third quarter from a reading of 113 in Q2. The greenback was stronger with the US dollar index at 95.37. The support and resistance levels are located at 0.6341 and 0.6521, respectively.

AUD/USD slipped lower as US dollar continued to recover from the losses it suffered after Fed left the interest rates unchanged. The pair is currently changing hands at 0.7172 after two weeks of rising seen in aussie. Although, it is not expected that this instrument will be going up above 0.7314, where strong resistance is located. On the downside, support can be found at 0.7140.

GBP/USD is trading at 1.5546 after a quick recovery of last week. The pair returned to its consolidation corridor in between 1.5425 and 1.5690, but downside risks still exist. Tomorrow, market is waiting for the British CBI Industrial trends orders data and Thursday will provide details on BBA Mortgage Approvals. The support is seen at 1.5372, while resistance can be found at 1.5673.

EUR/USD is rising from its opening level of 1.1286 in Asia. This week, data is expected from euro zone with Consumer Confidence and PMI viewed by the market. Last week, the pair rose as high as 1.1460 amid the Fed statement, but having returned to its comfortable 1.12-1.13 zone it is likely we will see some flat trades this week.

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Tuesday, September 22nd

USD/CAD was higher as downbeat Canadian data on wholesale sales encouraged traders to extend their long positions. Statistics Canada reported on Monday that wholesale sales were flat in July versus expectations for a 0.8% increase. Although, Canadian dollar remained supported by the rising oil prices on Tuesday, which helped to trim yesterday losses a little. Ahead in the week, market is expecting Canadian core retail sales data. Currently, the pair is trading at 1.3233. Rising to 1.3353, would still be viewed as a consolidation move. If the price rises above 1.3353, the next target would be set at 1.3469. On the downside, 1.30 remains a strong support level, as it was previously a hard resistance level.

GBP/USD is likely to have a volatile European session today amid publication of British data including CBI Industrial trends orders, Public Sector Net Cash Requirement and Public Sector Net Borrowing. The pair remains in its previous consolidation corridor in between 1.5425 and 1.5690 with expectations mostly bullish. However, this week, we saw some downside after the quick recovery of the cable last week over the Fed announcement of leaving the interest rates unchanged. The ongoing price fall is stipulated by the dollar trimming losses. The immediate resistance is located at 1.5530, above which gains could be extended to 1.56 level. As for support, the 1.5371 level is the right one to watch in course of today’s trade.

AUD/USD was moving up in Asia as Australian House Price Index for Q2 was out in green colour, higher than expected. Analysts forecasted a 2.5% growth, but the actual figure was at 4.7%.Meanwhile, the Chinese slowdown remains in the focus of attention as investors are expecting to see if any additional stimulus measures will be implemented by the Chinese government. Tomorrow, the market is viewing the CB Leading Index from Australia and Caixin Manufacturing PMI from China. On the US side, there will be Crude Oil Inventories and Manufacturing PMI figures. The aussie is currently changing hands at 0.7146 against its American counterpart with a strong support level at 0.7054, while resistance is located at 0.7202. Long-term expectations remain bearish as lower oil prices and unavoidable rate hike in the US will cause the AUD price to go down. Moving averages have not yet crossed and are pointing down.

EUR/USD suffered one of the biggest losses comparing to other majors since the beginning of the week as dollar was showing correctional moves after the Fed announced that the conditions for a rate hike have not yet been reached. The single currency opened trades at 1.1286 on Monday and by now has stepped down to 1.1171 level. Ahead in the day, the Consumer Confidence numbers are expected, while tomorrow will provide data on German and euro zone Manufacturing PMIs, European Services PMI and Markit Composite. Meanwhile, the pair remains in the middle of its long-term consolidation in between 1.1469 and 1.0810. The sentiment is mostly bearish. The macro-calendar for the day remains mainly light, so the main focus of attention is speeches of Fed officials.

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Wednesday, September 23rd

GBP/USD dropped significantly amid negative UK data on Tuesday, when Public Sector Net Borrowing came out at 11.31B versus 8.56 expected by analysts. September CBI Industrial Trends Orders were lower at -7. The pair opened trades at 1.5505 on Monday and by now has eased to 1.5337. The recent volatility in cable is likely to continue ahead of BoE monetary policy meetings. With GBP/USD currently at its 6-week lows, the support and resistance levels are located at 1.5182 and 1.5525, respectively.

EUR/USD continued to fall reaching 1.1126 level. The single currency has dropped ahead of Mario Draghi’s and Fed members’ speeches, as market awaits further indications on the possible divergences between policies of the two largest central banks. Meanwhile, manufacturing and services PMI are expected from euro zone, as well as Markit Composite PMI. On the US side, Manufacturing PMI and Crude Oil Inventories data is expected. The support and resistance levels are located at 1.1014 and 1.1220, respectively.

AUD/USD was weaker amid Caixin PMI falling to its 78-week lows at the reading of 47. The Chinese manufacturing survey pointed to weaker conditions than initially estimated. Meanwhile, the US dollar index was up 0.15% to its current 96.53. Overnight, the dollar continued to rise against other major currencies with no significant news coming out from the US with support provided by rate hike expectations. The pair is changing hands at 0.7034. It is likely that support will be found at 0.6985, while resistance is located at 0.7162.

USD/CHF is trading higher after Tuesday Swiss Trade Balance data coming out in red colour at 2.869B versus 2.970B forecast. As of now, the quote is 0.9759, but analysts are already holding heated discussions of the parity. Next week, the market is expecting Consumption Indicator from Switzerland, which will provide further indications on the results of SNB’s implemented monetary policy. The support is located at 0.9681, while resistance can be found at 0.9829.

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Thursday, September 24th

EUR/USD was rising from its two-week lows after Mario Draghi’s comments suggesting a downturn in the global economy has left European Central Bank uncertain on whether to extend the scope of its comprehensive asset-purchasing program. The single currency was trading in the range between 1.1105 and 1.1213 before consolidating at its current 1.1190. Although, euro zone data was out in the red colour with Services PMI and Markit Composite PMI below expectations, while Manufacturing PMI was in line with the forecast. Later in the day, the market is watching German Ifo Business Climate Index and Core Durable goods orders from the US. The pair is likely to gain support at 1.1090, while resistance is located at 1.1283.

GBP/USD was significantly lower on Wednesday amid speculation the BoE may have to delay the rate hike. This makes the pound the worst performer of the week having fallen from 1.5658 to 1.5273 in just a matter of a week. Later in the day, investors are viewing BBA Mortgage Approvals from the UK and New Home Sales from the US. Current support and resistance levels are at 1.5082 and 1.5384, respectively.

NZD/USD price rallied despite downbeat N.Z. Trade Balance data. The Trade Balance deficit widened more than expected reaching the 3.331M figure over 3M anticipated. The rise of NZD was stipulated by the fact that US dollar was falling from its “overbought” zone, which was entered amid rate hike expectations in the US, so investors started abandoning their long positions on dollar. The pair is currently trading at 0.6290. The support is seen ar 0.6188, while resistance is located at 0.6322.

USD/CAD passed the 1.33 level on Wednesday after Canadian retail sales data coming out flat in red colour. Core retail sales, which exclude automobiles, were expected to rise 0.4%. Meanwhile, the greenback remained supported after comments from Fed officials stating the rate hike is still in the list of plans this year. We see resistance at 1.3357 and support at 1.3265.


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Friday, September 25th

EUR/USD falls sharply as Federal Reserve chair Janet Yellen gave strong indications that the US central bank is likely to raise the interest rates at some point this year. After opening trades at 1.1228 this morning, the pair fell to its current 1.1168. Later in the day, data is expected from euro zone including M3 Money Supply and private sector loans. On the US side, the market is expecting to see the GDP figures before the speech of FOMC officials. The pair is likely to gain support at 1.1140. Resistance can be found at 1.1330.

USD/JPY was higher despite healthy growth data from Japan. Both National Core CPI and Tokyo Core CPI came out in line with expectations. The same indicators with fresh food taken into consideration showed higher than expected numbers. Corporate Services Price index rose by 0.7% versus 0.5% expected. The reason for the yen to weaken was the rising demand for the US dollar stipulated by Fed comments on the interest rate. J. Yellene emphasized that most of her colleagues will support the decision to raise the interest rate. The pair is trading at 120.34 with support and resistance levels located at 118.47 and 120.84.

GBP/USD is going down reaching its current 1.5223 level. With no significant news releases on Thursday and Friday, the pair was mostly driven by the fluctuations in dollar. Higher volatility is expected this afternoon as US GDP numbers will be reported. The pair will gain support at 1.5101. Resistance can be found at 1.5343.

NZD/USD is coming close to the resistance level of its bearish trend, which is located at 0.6438. The pair is currently trading at 0.6338 having risen from its yesterday’s opening level 0.6267 despite weak N.Z. Trade Balance data. The bearish moods still prevail in this market, in spite of the recent consolidation that we were observing. The support and resistance levels are located at 0.6277 and 0.6438, respectively.

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Monday, September 28th

NZD/USD is higher today after opening trades at 0.6370. Ahead in the week, the market is expecting to see the number of N.Z. building consents and the ANZ Business Confidence figures. Meanwhile, the greenback was strengthening amid the interest hike decision expectations and NFP publication later this week. The pair is changing hands at 0.6393, with support and resistance levels located at 0.6309 and 0.6468, respectively.

GBP/USD is still going down after significant losses seen last week, when the pound lost over 3 figures. Currently, the pair is located at 1.5182. US personal spending and income are expected to rise 0.3% and 0.4% respectively in August. This week’s UK data features M4 Money supply, Mortgage approvals, Nationwide HPI and GDP. The pair will find support at 1.5018 and resistance at 1.5297.

EUR/USD is slightly lower at 1.1174. The expected data from euro zone this week includes Industrial sentiment, Business and Consumer Survey, CPI and Manufacturing PMI. Today, the main focus is likely to be on the speeches from Fed officials. The pair may find support at 1.1040 and resistance at 1.1270, respectively.

AUD/USD remains close to its comfortable 0.70 level after showing a flat session on Friday and staying unchanged in Asia this morning. Technically, any rises seen in AUD will provide great opportunities for selling this instrument. From Australia, data is expected this week, including Housing Credit, Building approvals, Private house Approvals, Private Sector Credit and AIG Manufacturing Index. Chinese manufacturing data will be also closely watched. The support and resistance levels are at 0.6966 and 0.7104, respectively.

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Tuesday, September 29th

EUR/USD rose sharply on Monday as a sell-off among commodities and U.S equities put dollar under pressure. The single currency was trading as low as 1.1147 before subsequently hitting the 1.1248 level. The dollar fell considerably on Monday in spite of continuing indications from the Fed that it will raise the interest rate at some point in course of the next several months. The US data of Monday showed an increase in personal income by 0.3%. Ahead in the day, the market is expecting a block of news from the euro zone. On the US side, investors are watching CB Consumer Index. The pair might find support at 1.1139, while resistance is located at 1.1354.

GBP/USD was having a volatile session on Monday amid the comments from BoE and fluctuations of the dollar. The pair opened trades at 1.5184, and then rose as high as 1.5241, subsequently falling to 1.5171. It is expected that the cable will end this week at 1.50 or just below in case NFP data will provide some solid ground for the Fed to start looking at raising interest rates next month while BoE continues to provide controversial indications from its several members. Today’s data from UK includes M4 money supply, Mortgage approvals and net lending to individuals. The key support and resistance levels to watch today are 1.5047 and 1.5284, respectively.

USD/CAD broke through the 1.34 handle this morning despite weaker greenback. The pair is currently continuing its bullish trend changing hands at 1.3410. Ahead in the day, data is expected from Canada including RMPI and IPPI. Technically, the loonie seems to be heading to 1.3520 level, which might be reached as soon as the end of this week with plenty of economic data. The support is seen at 1.3387.

The yen was stronger in Asia on safe heaven demand in a light data day regionally. USD/JPY was presented with an opportunity to fall as the dollar was considerably weaker in view of stock market sell-off and mixed US data of Monday. The pair is currently trading at 119.30 and expectations are mostly bullish as Japanese currency is now out of its comfortable 120 area. Tomorrow, Japan publishes its economic data on Industrial Production, Construction orders and Housing Starts. The support and resistance levels are located at 118.74 and 120.87, respectively.


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Wednesday, September 30th

AUD/USD was higher on Wednesday in Asia currently trading at 0.7011. In Australia, building approvals fell 6.9% in August, much quicker than the 2.0% fall expected and the fifth straight negative monthly fall, while housing credit rose 0.6% in the month, the same pace as July, and private house approvals rose 4.9% after a 3.5% fall in July. Private sector credit rose 0.6% month-on-month in August, better than the 0.5% gain seen. The support and resistance levels are seen at 0.6882 and 0.7041, respectively.

EUR/USD was mostly flat trading in a narrow range close to 1.1234. Forex traders are awaiting the release of critical inflation data from the euro zone on Wednesday for further indications on the strength of the global economy. Analysts are expecting to see a 0.1% gain for the month, following a 0.1% increase in August. On the US side, investors are watching ADP Nonfarm Employment Change data as well as the speech of Fed chair J. Yellen. Support is seen at 1.1165, while resistance might be met at 1.1367.

GBP/USD is changing hands at 1.5158 ahead of important UK GDP data. The British GDP is expected to grow 2.6% YoY and in case the actual numbers are higher it will provide a good ground for MPC to consider policy changes in course of the forthcoming year. The September Nationwide HPI numbers were higher than expected at 0.5% versus 0.4% expected. The pair might find support at 1.5025, while resistance is seen at 1.5255.

USD/JPY is lower just below 119 as Japanese data was out in red colour. Industrial production fell 0.5% month-on-month in August, compared to a 1.0% gain seen. Retail sales gained 0.8% YoY in the same month, below the 1.1% rise expected. The support is seen at 118.43 and resistance can be found at 120.55.

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Thursday, October 1st

GBP/USD continued its decline on Wednesday as British GDP numbers came out in the red colour. The British economy was expected to expand 2.6%, but actual GDP figure was at 2.4% YoY, which provides additional place for BoE monetary policy speculations. Ahead in the day, market is watching the UK Manufacturing PMI. Cable is currently trading at 1.5126 with support and resistance levels located at 1.4998 and 1.5248, respectively.

EUR/USD was down amid lower CPI numbers on Wednesday and upbeat employment data from US. The ADP Nonfarm Employment Change report showed 200K figure versus 194K expected, while euro zone CPI was negative at 0.1%. The single currency is changing hands at 1.1142 ahead of European Manufacturing PMI data. On the US side, investors are watching ISM Manufacturing PMI. Support and resistance levels are at 1.1057 and 1.1276, respectively.

AUD/USD was higher amid Chinese Manufacturing PMI coming out higher than expected at 49.8 while Caixin Manufacturing PMI was at 47.2, in line with the forecast. Meanwhile, Australian AIG Manufacturing Index was higher than last month’s reading by 0.4 at 52.1. Current support is located at 0.6965, while resistance is seen at 0.7093.

USD/JPY was higher today after mixed Japanese data. Tankan Large Manufacturers Index slightly missed the expectations of experts, while Tankan Large Non-Manufacturers Index was significantly higher than expected. The pair is trading at its current 120.14 level. Tomorrow, traders are closely watching Japanese data including Household Spending, Unemployment rate and Jobs/applications ratio. The important levels to watch today are 119.12 for support and 121.13 for resistance.


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Friday, October 2nd

USD/JPY is trading flat just above 120 as household spending jumps and employment data is in red colour. This morning, the statistics bureau pf Japan reported the household spending figures, which were significantly higher than expected at 2.5% versus 0.5% anticipated by analysts. Unemployment rate was slightly higher at 3.4% in comparison with August figure of 3.3%. The support and resistance levels are at 119.11 and 121.11, respectively.

AUD/USD was slightly higher after disappointing manufacturing data from US on Thursday, when the ISM Manufacturing PMI was reported to be at 50.2 despite the expectations of 50.6 figure. Earlier today, Australian retail sales came out in line with expectations with 0.4% growth rate. Current quote is 0.7039 and closest support is located at 0.6979, while resistance is viewed at 0.7139.

EUR/USD was falling ahead of NFP data publication later in the day. The US Labor market data is going to be critical news as it is likely to indicate the likelihood of Fed raising the interest rates next month. This stipulated the greenback’s gains overnight. In euro zone, the manufacturing PMI was in line with expectations at 52.0. The support is seen at 1.1109 and resistance at 1.1296.

GBP/USD is likely to have a very volatile session today after its considerable losses in course of this week. The British GDP numbers were in red colour, but yesterday’s manufacturing PMI was more positive. Although, the cable slipped lower to 1.5150 and is currently covering the suffered losses. Investors are viewing British Construction PMI with support at 1.5044 and resistance at 1.5270.

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Monday, October 5th

GBP/USD is rising after the disappointing Non-Farm Payrolls data of Friday when the number of people in jobs rose considerably slower than expected in the US. Last week, the cable dropped to as low as 1.5107 and by now the pair rose to 1.5212. Ahead in the week, the market is expecting the manufacturing production figures and interest rate decision in the UK, one day before the trade balance data. Current support and resistance levels are located at 1.5082 and 1.5345, respectively.

EUR/USD continues trading in the range of previous eight weeks currently changing hands at 1.1107. Today, euro zone releases its Markit Composite PMI and Services PMI numbers, as well as retail sales figures. The support and resistance levels are located at 1.1076 and 1.1407, respectively.

AUD/USD seems to be forming a mid-term bullish trade continuing its rise to 0.7068. All attention is now turned to RBA Board meeting on Tuesday, with interest rate decision in the focus. The pair might find support at 0.6990 and resistance at 0.7127.

USD/JPY was slightly higher after the volatile session on Friday. In Japan average cash earnings for August rose 0.5%, a second straight rise, but below the gain of 0.7% expected. Later in the week, Japan publishes its current account data. The support and resistance levels are located at 117.83 and 120.77, respectively.


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Tuesday, October 6th

AUD/USD rose higher to 0.7118 as RBA held interest rates steady at 2% as expected. Earlier, Australia’s August trade deficit came in at 3.1B AUD, wider than the 2.55B expected. On the US side, we saw ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI coming out in red colour at 56.9 versus 57.5 expected. This disappointed investors while providing support to the basket of major currency pairs. The U.S. dollar was down 0.04% to 96.19. AUD/USD support and resistance levels are seen at 0.7028 and 0.7169, respectively.

USD/CAD is broadly down to 1.3083 after reaching its highest point of more than a decade at 1.3453. The loonie is now coming close to the strong support level of 1.3010, which proved to be a hard-to-pass resistance in the past. Breaking through this level, analysts might start talking of the trend reversal. The fundamental stipulators for such moves might be provided by the bureau of statistics of Canada, when it releases the Trade Balance figures and Ivey PMI number later in the day. On the upside, the resistance is seen at 1.3207.

GBP/USD continues its volatile trade, currently at 1.5153, as investors await the Manufacturing production data and interest rate decision from the UK. It is highly unlikely that interest rate is going to be changed in the nearest future, but what the market really wants to see is the ration of votes in favour of the monetary policy change. Today, the support and resistance levels are expected to be at 1.5012 and 1.5272.

EUR/USD is mildly up, located at 1.1191 before the EU Finance Ministers Meeting. In the evening, ECB President M. Draghi is out with a speech, which is likely to provide additional information on the inflation outlook. Without any significant news from the US today, the market will be closely eyeing the support and resistance levels located at 1.1066 and 1.1295, respectively.


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Wednesday, October 7th

USD/JPY was slightly weaker as Bank of Japan voted to keep its current monetary base target steady in an 8 to 1 vote on Wednesday. There has been speculation the BoJ may be considering further easing, though the board has contended that underlying inflation is rising and a slump in factory output is not serious enough to derail the path to a modest economic recovery and 2% inflation. The support and resistance levels are located at 119.33 and 121.01, respectively.

GBP/USD is higher ahead of Manufacturing Production data from UK. There will be more significant news from Britain this week, including interest rate decision and trade balance, which altogether, might cause the trades in this instrument to be no less volatile than the previous weeks. Moreover, without any important economic news expected from the US, the cable will be solely driven by fluctuations in GBP. Current support and resistance levels are located at 1.5107 and 1.5364, respectively.

EUR/USD is lower after yesterday’s rise currently trading at 1.1258. The pair gained in course of yesterday’s trade amid wider than expected US Trade Balance deficit and downbeat forecasts from IMF on global economy growth over the next year. Today is expected to be a relatively quiet trade for the euro, without any news on the economy calendar. The support and resistance levels are located at 1.1166 and 1.1387.

USD/CAD is broadly lower for the sixth consecutive session. The pair declined to its current level of 1.3018, which is very close to the key support level located at 1.3010. Having passed that price level, the analysts are likely to hold heated discussion over the trend reversal. Fundamental data from Canada indicated that both Trade Balance and Ivey PMI were lower than expected. Investors are now watching the number of issued building permits in Canada later in the day. Current support and resistance levels are located at 1.3010 and 1.3123, respectively.

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Daily economic digest from Forex.ee
Stay informed of the key economic events

Thursday, October 8th

NZD/USD slipped lower but remains close to its six-week highs currently changing hands at 0.6595. The gains seen in the Kiwi are mostly stipulated by the decline in demand for the greenback as expectations for a rate hike this year are becoming increasingly fragile. Tomorrow, N.Z. publishes the data on Electronic Card Retail Sales and volume of home loans. Current support and resistance levels are located at 0.6541 and 0.6721.

USD/JPY was lower despite continued weak manufacturing data from Japan. The core machinery orders plunged 5.7% in August, missing the expectations of 3.2% decline. The Japanese current account figures were positive at 1.653T, beating the forecast of 1.221T. The yen saw significant gains as US dollar index was down 0.05%. On the US side, investors were becoming suspicious over the possibility of a rate hike this year, as global economic conditions and recent data from US labor market showed that Fed is likely to hold the policy steady until further growth indications are seen. The support and resistance levels are seen at 118.96 and 120.79, respectively.

GBP/USD showed significant gain on Wednesday, second session in a row, after falling as low as 1.5107 last week. The pair is currently changing hands at 1.5213 ahead of MPC meeting. The members will vote on the interest rate and while the possibility of a rate hike this year remains really low, the ratio of votes is what the market will pay its attention to. Yesterday, the manufacturing production data from UK was in green colour at 0.5% versus 0.3% expected. The support and resistance levels are seen at 1.5194 and 1.5468.

EUR/USD was higher in Asia, coming close to the top of its current range between 1.1060 and 1.1296. Later in the day, ECB Publishes Account of Monetary Policy Meeting, which will be closely watched by investors. On the US side, the market will be monitoring the FOMC Meeting Minutes. The support and resistance levels are located at 1.1132 and 1.1317.

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