Forex, just a gamble?

where are teh success stories? wheres the millionaires/billionaires. if 90% of people lose money here, what are our chances?

this all feels too much like gambling. the house always wins. u can’t deny this.

While I don’t have any success story (yet) I prefer to trade FX than go to Atlantic City and gamble. Once you have developed a proven backtested system and use proper money management rules than I don’t see how you can not make $$$ unless you break your own rules, which I am guilty of. It’s almost like counting cards in BlackJack if you know the card count when the shoe is almost empty, then you know the odds are in your favor to win the next hand. On the other hand if you want to “[B]guess[/B]” red/black than FX is definately not for you. I get into this argument with my friends all the time because they are all gamblers just guesses on sports with no basis on stats. I guess the only way to prove them all wrong is to succeed which I promise you (or them) I will someday!!!

Have you ever went through the babypips school?

By the way if the house always wins then what the hell am I wasting years of my life on here for! Why are you here? Why is this site here? :slight_smile:


I agree with topgun.

The house doesn’t always win. Though their odds are slightly better than yours if you look at it statistically. The houses have hired educated people, whose purpose is to make money for the house. If you educate yourself, and do enough “homework” you should be able to do it.

The house always wins

True in 90% of cases so the stats say. In my opinion the losers in this game only have themselves to blame with their trading styles. true the house does have a statistical advantage.

Now lets look at the 10% winners
They are like snipers on the hills, they pick the trades, the key here is they have plans and stick to them, they understand the business they are in, this is another interseting point they treat forex as a business which is how everybody should aproach it.

Lets get the opinions out in the open and expand on this thread

I think you will find that most of the people that claim to make a positive and good return will be the ones on the hills.

Good trading


in statistics, everything reverts to its mean over time, especially over a large number of samples. the house knows the player’s limits because they have countered and sampled millions to billions and able to determine the long run average (people lose).

im not trying to start flame war, but i would like to see and discuss all aspects of forex. what im trying to say is trying to be a millionaire out of forex (like so many of you claim to do) is in reality(statistically) extremely naive.

what worries me more is, i’ve never heard of any forex millionaires. i think i hear more successful online poker gamblers than forex traders.

Oh yeah, this forum’s practically bursting at the seams with people posting about all their millions. Perhaps you’d care to post a link to such a claim? You say you’re not trying to start a flame war, then you go and put in a stupid comment like that.

And by the way, gambling is not the same as taking an educated risk. Would you call someone who is starting their own business a gambler?

First you have to remember that the house is the broker and they only make money when you trade. This would be more like playing poker. Just you, me and everyone else. The house really wants you to win because then you will make more trades and they will make more money from your spreads not wins and losses. Remember that forex is a zero sum game. for every winner there is a looser. Sometimes the big guys win and sometimes they lose, the only difference is the big guys know how to limit their losses.
As far as not seeing any forex millionaires? That is simple you see more poker players that make a million dollars becuase it is more exciting, more romatic. When was the last time that ESPN broadcasted the World Series of Forex?

people boasting their fortune on forums is not the same as people featured in media.

but im bored, feel free to show me a link anytime. :cool:

obebogie, your the perfect case example. go ahead, i bet you at the most 6 month after going live, your account will be wiped and we’ll probably never see you on these forums again. :wink:

of course your natural step of defense would be to argue that you’ve already gone live for the past couple of years and that your making tons of money since theres no way to know if ur lying or whatever and this thing goes on and on :slight_smile:

Oooooh that’s so mean!

I think your missing the point of all these postive messages at the bottom of the screen. The fact is there is money to be made and lost in the forex. Sure you may not make a million over night but how many jobs out there offer you that kind of pay? All you should concentrait on is keeping a positive atitude and not bring everyone down.

“Weather you think you can or you think you cant, your right” Henry Ford

you sound very emotional, like many of you are. what im trying to do is, bring a cold, rational view of the forex.

Gambling…hum you could probably have went through past posts that’s discussed it.

90% of all traders lose. - pareto principle.

Like you said, in statistics everything reverts back to it’s mean. That is what a system is for in the market. If you follow it with discipline it should bring you money in the long run you statistically will win by following ur rules.( BTW that’s most people’s problem why they lose. In live anyway.)

Oh and one last thing technically ur not playing against brokers, ur playing against other traders. Also no offense or anything eh but this thread makes you sound like a prick. I get it tho, the market is well… the market. To be honest this thread is pretty much spam since all ur doing is pissing people off but maybe you could say what it is exactly that you hope to accomplish from it. And also you sound as tho you are most emotional since you continue to rant against the possibility to make money from the market.

Anyways continue the rampage if u will I don’t really care. But maybe you should study the market a little more before discounting anything.

Just read through all the posts and thought I would have my say.

The house does always win � as we pay a spread and they will always lay off any residual risk. 90% or traders may loose 100% of brokers make money

Is FX trading gambling � It can be but I think what we�re all trying to achieve is trading on the balance of probabilities. I like the analogy some guy used on this post of card counting�… as if you count cards you can still loose but the probability of knowing when the stack is your favour increases.

Is FX a zero sum game � When I graduated from Uni with a mind full of game theory I thought it had to be but the more I think about it I think FX is certainly not a zero sum game!!!

Interesting reading though!!!

i dont care if this sounds discouraging to you, since im trying to look at forex from all possible views. not to do it would be stupid. if we stopped asking questions then theres something wrong with that system. so i dont understand your frustration shadow.

what i meant by playing against the house, was in fact the market, nowhere in my post i have mentioned battling it with the broker. i merely stated that because as we play the role of a speculator, the risk has been specifically allocated to the participant from another player. this is a very good thing because the market is efficient, we are able to allocate resources to the right people at teh right time through pricing.

unfortunately, as far as gambling goes, the house knows the long run average mean of the player (losing position). like you mentioned, its a zero sum game, where one winner exists at any given time, whether its at a minute’s session, 2 hour session, daily, weekly session. This is not like investing in common shares of large corporations where everyone can win, or everyone can lose. Also adding in the volatility factor of the forex, we are not looking at just one company, we are looking at an entire country!

if you made money, then great keep doing it, there are many successful gamble moguls too.

great to hear your thoughts, i wish for the article to expand more.

Interesting discussion, thought I’d give you my thoughts.

I am a bit confused as how Mr. Yari here, describes the market as the house. If there are any houses at all in this game, it is the brokers, who can in some ways be viewed as the winners because they make money no matter how people trade. However, we are not spectators in the market, we are players, not big, but we are there. The problem with hardcore “efficient-market-theory” followers, is that they see a market as an entity, or institution. In my opinion, that’s wrong. I find much more sense in George Soros’ theory of market reflexivity. The market is people. We are the market. George Soros is a larger part of the market than us, hence the fact that he can influence it to a larger degree than us. I do not believe that the market is alway correctly priced, I think it’s ruled by greed and fear, not rational number-crunching.

It’s the people’s irrational behaviour around money, that gives people like us poor statistical odds. I mean, think about how many gamblers and stupid people who are drawn to an activity where you potentially can get super-rich. People who actually seek forums, and seek to educate themselves about the subject, improve their odds by miles, contra “gamblers” who does usually not follow som form for structured method.

And while we are talking about gambling. I’ve found that risk/money-managment is the most important part of my trading. And it is really what sets trading apart from traditional gambling. When you for example bet on a horse, you have no form of stop-loss. I’m not an experiences gambler in terms of traditional gambling, but I have never heard of a “game” that let’s you run a “cut you looser’s and let your profits run” philosophy.

Thank you for your time, cheers.

exactly the kind of response i was looking for. well done.

Yari, I think the reason you are not feeling any love on this post is because you came out and STATED that forex is gambling. The main difference is in gambling you can use stats to improve your odds, but you never get better than a 10% chance of winning. With forex you have so many tools to edcuate yourself. Even if you dont take advantage of the tools you still "in theroy have a 50/50 chance of winning. The only thing that forex and gambling have in common is that money managemet is the most improtant part of your system.

I think this topic has been touched upon in a thread or two…

Is it a gamble? Maybe. A calculated risk? I sure hope so. A sure fire path to millions? Heh… um, no. :smiley:

Yari123 - I agree with your assertion that it is important to look at this business from various angles. With all due respect, I believe that you are focused on things that are beyond your control. It is important to think critically about your trading business in order to decide if it is the type of business that fits within your personality and point of view about money, gambling, wealth, etc.

Trading is tough. There is no need to create additional psychological barriers.

Best of luck in your trading…

I’d almost forgotton about this thread.

Yari, I think you may have misunderstood my post, it was meant in the highest tone of sarcasm possible. It was YOU who made the claim that there were people claiming they could make themselves millionaires and I asked YOU to post a link. I certainly don’t have any.

…and I’ve yet to open a live account. Unlike you, I prefer to learn what I’m doing before I start bashing other people for trying it.

Perhaps I can try and analyse your personality this time.

Hmmm… Ok, I’m gonna bet (gambling man huh?) that you’ve had a go on a demo account for a while and failed miserably, jumping from system to system, reading a few tutorials, then trying to go with your instinct and getting nowhere. Frustrated, you decide that if the almighty know-it-all Yari can’t make a profit, then everyone else must be lying about it and Yari was gonna be the man to set the record straight. How close was I? :stuck_out_tongue:

Your going to start up the debate again now :). This topic is like asking what came first, the chicken or the egg :D. By the way I’m on my way to AC (Atlantic City) tomorrow but I think I have better odds than my old days from all the money management books that I’ve been reading over the years. Long live FOREX!!